When deciding on new topics for the blog, my mind wanders around some interesting and sometimes uninteresting places.
Today, I thought about – how close or how far away is this 2026 team from what the goal should be – a championship team like in 2022. I’m going to sledgehammer this home by looking head-to-head at the key position and pitching spots on the team.
#1 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Justin Verlander | Hunter Brown | 2022 – Verlander |
We are cheating a bit in including Hunter Brown as he only had a couple of starts before going out with an injury, but with the expectation of him returning soon, it is not out of the realm to expect him to be the ace of this team.
What is beyond the expectation is to expect Brown to outperform 2022 AL Cy Young winner Verlander and his 18-4, 1.75 ERA and 0.829 WHIP season
#2 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Framber Valdez | Spencer Arrighetti | 2022 – Valdez |
Spencer has been pitching quite well since his call-up a couple weeks into the season, though he has shown a few more blemishes the last couple of starts. But please raise your hand if you think Arrighetti will outperform Framber’s 17-6, 2.82 ERA coming in 5th in the CY race. I look at that league leading 3 complete games and 201.1 innings and miss it.
#3 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Cristian Javier | Tatsuya Imai | 2022 – Javier |
Javier was a quietly strong 3rd starter in 2022, his lack of luck in the win department covering up some of that success. He was 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and was famously part of both a regular season and a key World Series combined no-hitter. For Imai, we are really betting on the come based on his good performance in his last 4 starts since returning from his fainting spell IL stint. He is 3-3 with a 5.24 ERA overall, but 2-2 with a 2.91 ERA in those last 4 starts.
#4 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Luis Garcia | Peter Lambert | Push |
Lambert has come in from nowhere to be a steady support in this rotation, putting up a 5-4 record with a 3.54 ERA. This stands up well against Garcia’s 15-8, 3.72 ERA performance in 2022, but of course it is early to know if Lambert will be exposed or not along the way.
#5 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jose Urquidy | Mike Burrows | 2022 – Urquidy |
Burrows was expected to be the 3rd starter in this rotation, but has done his best to try and pitch himself out of it while leading the AL in hits, homers and runs allowed. Urquidy was a solid contributor with his 13-8 record and 3.94 ERA quite out running Burrows’ current 3-8 record with a 5.77 ERA.
DH
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Yordan Alvarez | Yordan Alvarez | 2026 – Alvarez |
Yordan was very good in 2022 with his 37 HRs and 97 RBIs, but he has been transcendent so far in 2026 as he is on a pace for 52 HRs and 113 RBIs while he is near or at the top of the AL in many categories. The key is – does he stay healthy in 2026. Plus, this ignores his series changing performances in the 2022 ALDS and in Game 6 of the World Series.
1B
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Yuli Gurriel | Christian Walker | 2026 – Walker |
Walker has been an excellent fielder, very comparable to Gurriel. He has also been a very key offensive player accumulating 16 homers and 48 RBIs before the halfway mark as compared to Gurriel’s 8 homers and 53 RBIs for the whole season.
2B
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | 2022 – Altuve |
2022 Jose earned an All Star and a 5th spot in the MVP race with that .300 BA/ .387 OBP/ .921 OPS slash. Though we hope Altuve improves over his current below average stats, he is not going to beat out those numbers in 2026.
SS
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jeremy Pena | Jeremy Pena | 2026 – Pena |
This is an interesting one as Pena’s current numbers are better than rookie Pena’s numbers, but….. it is hard to forget that Pena went nuts in the playoffs and was both the 2022 ALCS and World Series MVP. This choice is for the regular season only.
3B
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Alex Bregman | Isaac Paredes | 2022 – Bregman |
While Paredes has been warming up lately, it is doubtful he will get anywhere near most of Bregman’s numbers from 2022, especially his 93 runs scored and 93 RBIs.
C
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Martin Maldonado | Cristian Vazquez | 2026 – Vazquez |
Maldonado split time with both Jason Castro and Vazquez back in 2022. Vazquez was supposed to be the backup to Yainer Diaz this season, but due to injury has played more than Diaz. Maldy was one of the worst hitters in the majors back then, but a person might be justified in picking him over Vazquez due to his great work with the pitching staff.
RF
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Kyle Tucker | Cam Smith | 2022 – Tucker |
Tucker was an All Star, a Gold Glove and came in 15th in the MVP voting in 2022. Smith is struggling to show he belongs in the majors. Advantage Tucker.
CF
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jake Meyers | Jake Meyers | Push |
The way the Astros split outfield chores in 2022 there are a lot of ways to look at this, but we will put Meyers in CF and Chas in LF. This is pretty much a push at this point.
LF
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Chas McCormick | Brice Matthews | 2022 – McCormick |
Chas was a solid contributor in 2022. Brice is a very poor offensive player in 2026. Vote for Chas.
Closer
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Ryan Pressly | Josh Hader | 2022 – Pressly |
Maybe not a fair comparison, since Hader has only had four appearances so far, but it is doubtful that he will match Pressly’s 33 save season in 2022. That does not even count Pressly’s 10 scoreless appearances with 6 saves in the postseason.
#2
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Bryan Abreu | Bryan King | 2022 – Abreu |
King has been very good and has even done well picking up saves along the way in 2026. Abreu and his 1.95 ERA and 13.1 K/ 9 IP was pure shutdown in 2022.
#3
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Rafael Montero | Steven Okert | 2022 – Montero |
Okert has been solid in his team leading 31 appearances with a 3.00 ERA/ 0.933 WHIP. Montero with his 2.37 ERA and 14 saves was so good he was given a 3 year contract that he never came close to earning.
#4
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Ryne Stanek | Enyel De Los Santos | 2022 – Stanek |
Stanek’s 1.15 ERA in 59 appearances sticks out in a career where he has never gotten below the 4.00 ERA mark since. De Los Santos has been, similar to Okert, very solid, but not near what Stanek was.
#5
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Hector Neris | A.J. Blubaugh | 2022 – Neris |
If you noticed that Bryan Abreu’s name has not appeared – you are right. Blubaugh has been over-worked – he has thrown 12 more innings than anyone else in the bullpen. His number are OK, but improving. Neris was a solid veteran who gave the team a 3.72 ERA over 65 innings. Neris is the pick, but Blubaugh could catch him.
So, that is a comparison between 19 of the prime players from both 2022 and 2026. By my assessment the final count is ….
2022 – 13
2026 – 4
Push – 2
The point of this was not to show that the 2022 Astros was better than the current version. We know that. It was to say that the current version of the team is so very far behind the 2022 version. There needs to be improvement all over the place to close this type of gap.
Note – Ironically, three of the four players on the 2026 team who won their comparisons above – were also on the 2022 team – Alvarez, Pena and Vazquez.
Should the team play 52 pick-up with this team and start over? Should they make strategic trades of those they will likely not re-sign (Pena, Brown, Alvarez??) and try to rebuild on the fly? Should they hope that somehow, they can close that gap above with minor tweaks? It will be a bumpy ride, no matter which road they pick.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
25 responses to “Being Brutally Honest – 2026 vs. 2022”
The Astros have played 70 games. Season is almost half over.
Our WHIP is 27th in MLB.
Our ERA is 29th in MLB.
We also walk the most guys in MLB.
I think we’ll get better. Hunter comes back. Javier might help. Imai remains a question mark. Arrighetti will continue to regress somewhat but help the rotation. Burrows has already thrown 73.1 innings. He threw 96.0 last year. Steven might be thinking he’s gassed already. Lambert has been more than we could hope for. Can he keep it up? Teng? When I see such a huge improvement I’m always dubious. It’s the cynic, or realist in me.
As far as the pen goes, as always, good health is the big key.
But all in all, I don’t think with our present resources we can get our WHIP and our ERA even up into the middle of MLB team pitching stats. Now I know there must be a few more optimistic pitching splits for the Astros, but I think overall, we’re fortunate to be only 8 games under .500.
My offensive comments will be shorter.
Right now we have only four guys that qualify as hitting leaders, partially due to a lack of at bats for the majority of the team. One of those four is Cam Smith. He’s hitting .220/.309/.366/.675. His career stats are not getting better in 2026. I’m pretty sure Pena will hit more and Altuve should too, and Yainer will provide some offensive boost behind the plate. But looking through the roster, there are really no other guys underperforming their career numbers, by much anyway. So I don’t think we’re going to look much better than our present merry-go-round of guys hitting 5 through 9.
I think we’re a mediocre baseball team.
It’s not time to play 52 Pick Up either, even though the crowds are already staying home.
However, everyone here knows my stance. If we stink at the deadline, certainly listen. If we stink at the end of the season, then yes, the only untouchable for me would be Altuve, and nobody would be after him regardless.
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More concerned with the pitches than the innings. He is already closing in on his career high in IP, and thats lifetime not just MLB. He has never thrown more than 1600 competitive pitches in year in his life, and the Astros have him on pace to go over 3000. Now, I don’t think he will actually get to 3000 but if they don’t remove him from the rotation all year he is going over 2800 if not 2900. I’m not concerned with his 2026. I’m concerned about another injury in 2028 when we have 4 more years of control on the guy.
Now, it may all be a moot point. The guy is starting too look just a litte too hittable. Larry had a good point about his fastball last post, it looks hittable. So I went and looked at the stats, and well, its hittable. To the tune of .325 last year and a .316 so far this year. He thought maybe he should switch to a different version of a fastball, but to be honest, he isn’t throwing a 2 seamer 95 MPH. Or a sinker. But I am sure the brain trust in back room at Daikan have access to way more information than we can even see on statcast. I’m sure they are trying to figure out what pitch mix works best for him.
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That four seamer sure has been a meatball. And grooving it does not help either.
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If I was going to say one thing about it – 95 is really nothing to these hitters today. In 1985, 95 MPH could win you a Cy because you could make mistakes at that velo and no one is catching it. By 1995, steroids had taken over the sport and bat speeds were making up for the slow decision times, and it was less “passable”. But thats when every pitcher in little league up started chasing velo. Now the hitters today, they faced pitchers chasing velo. They have been looking at velo their entire lives. 95 is nothing to them. It just can’t be straight.
And the way I explain pitching to my wife, I tell her you can see the box, but what you have to do as a pitcher is draw a box in the box, and never throw the ball in ball in the little box. Now its tougher than that, you have to know where that little box is for different hitters, and what pitches you could throw where to certain hitters, but that’s too much science for her. Just don’t throw it in the little box while making sure it’s in the big box. He finds that little box too much for a guy with mediocre stuff.
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Brutally honest… if the team is still in its same position, then go ahead and be sellers.
Oh! By the way, sell Dana Brown and Joe Espada while at it!
Espada managed to lose last night instead of managing to win.
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We’ve talked about the sellers thing for a while. I just don’t see it. It’s hard to become sellers in this world. Some of these contracts you just can’t get out from under. Dave talked about 23k crowd they played in front of the other night. You trade Yordan, Pena and Brown and it becomes 13k. Yes, you can move Paredes and Walker as well, but those, at this point, are not netting anything but either really low level guys or C level prospects. But Altuve, Correa, Imai, Javier, McCullers, not moving. Hader probably needs to show he can get above 95 before he gets you something, and his NTC pretty much stops it.
The 2024 Astros were 32-38 after 70. One game better. Now, this is not the 24 team, but they also don’t need 87 wins. The third WC spot is going to a team that is at or below .500 right now. Now of those 5 teams that are considered possibilities for it, we not only a worse team on paper, we will have to hope none of those other 4 get super hot. I don’t think it’s realistic to think that out of Texas, Baltimore and Toronto, one of those three will not have a big 16-7 month and pull away. I think the Astros have to aim at 85 wins to have a chance. 85-77 means 53-39 the rest of the way. They have to turn it around FAST. We can’t have anymore moments where Yordan gets the stop sign at 3B, turns his back to the play, doesn’t see the over throw for about 1.5 seconds, and gets thrown out by .5 seconds. This kind of stuff just has to stop. It seems every day some player is killing us in some margin.
The biggest turnaround though has to come from Espada. Just notes from Wednesday night – first, probably shouldn’t have sent Lambert out there for a 7th, AGAIN. He sent Trammell out there to pinch hit for Vazquez. Not something I would have done, I think Trammell is a better hitter but I also think Vazquez would have given a tougher at bat. Trammell then struck out on 3 pitches. He lifted Loperfido with the bases loaded and 2 outs for Whitcomb, I didn’t hate the move, this is where it seems he is trying to make lemonade out of some lemons, but Whitcomb grounded out with soft contact. I know it was lefty vs. lefty but you have to think Joey has a better chance to put something in play with some exit velocity. Then there is the game costing decision to leave Alvarez in to run in the 9th, watch him make a game costing baserunning mistake, and then demonstrate you were still willing to pull him from the game in the 10th for a pinch runner anyway. As soon as I saw Abreu, I felt it was over.
Brown can’t be gone fast enough for me. Espada, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings. But I’m not anti-Joe as I am anti-Dana. When Joe has 6 guys he can write in pen and not pencil, and he has someone on the bench that will at least hit .250 and put the ball in play and can play all 8 positions, when is bullpen isn’t annually put together with bubble gum and tape, when he isn’t trying to figure out who is going to start all the games this week, he is good at the rest of it, and there is a lot to it. Ego management, press, language, tone, there are a lot of things I like about Joe, but managing unperfect game situations with imperfect players is not one of them.
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The title of this post could also have been “How to Cure You of Optimism.” Zanuda made a comment on the last post that hopefully Dana Brown will read.
“If we can’t win 4 of 6 out of the next two series it’s just about all over.” – Zanuda
We’re only 5 games back of the Mariners and 4 back of the Wild Card. We’re totally in this, right? Even the most delusional of us have to admit we’re not. The team is 8 games under .500. If you play it out the rest of the way at this pace the final tally would be 72-90 and that’s not going to be enough for October baseball. We took 2/3 from the A’s and then dropped 2/3 to Mike Trout’s softball team. That followed losing 2/3 to PIT and 2/3 to MIL. Excepting a 4 game sweep of the Cubs this team just has not been able to beat anyone regardless of quality of opponent.
The pitching isn’t good enough to carry the offense. The offense is depressing on many nights. There’s no shame in not being a World Series contender. Only one team will win it each year. If I’m paying a ton of money to go to a game I want to have an expectation my team may win and the players will perform. Right now we don’t have that.
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I think we have to see what a month of having Hunter Brown back and possibly Cristian Javier means to the team. I had kind of counted out Javier, but he just threw a nine up – nine down start at AAA. Maybe he was trying to pitch through his pain earlier this year and now he is OK. Yes, I’m reaching, but a Brown, Arrighetti, Javier, Imai, and Lambert fivesome could look good.
Oh wait, Brown / Espada will keep rolling Burrows out there. We can’t afford that if we are going to get back in the race.
The offense on the other hand…I just don’t know. They are either piling on for a 10 run game or hitting stupid and sitting with 1 run late in the game. I don’t know what to think of them.
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This season’s team is what it is. Back on April 30, the team was 12-20 or 8 games under. On May 30, the team was 27-30 or 6 games under. Currently, they are 8 games under. They have been consistently been 6 – 10 games under all season.
This is why they will not be in the playoffs. I miss that experience.
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I have read articles stating that Sig Mejdal was the right hand man for Jeff Luhnow. He is currently the Assistant GM for the Orioles. I believe Crane should talk to Baltimore about getting Sig from them and installing Sig as the Astros GM.
Any thoughts from the group??
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Baltimore quickly amassed a ton of talent, had one exceptional year where they flamed out in the playoffs, and now are 33-37 in what will be the toughest division in baseball. If Mejdal is responsible for identifying any of that talent I’m interested and this might be an opportunity given their season will be disappointing like ours is.
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Chip passed this along
Astros Designate Ryan Weiss For Assignment – MLB Trade Rumors
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Well, that didn’t go very well.
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It would take me a long time to ever have confidence in Imai.
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Good morning. The Astros began a stretch of 19 games over 20 days last night. They used 7 pitchers. They used their closer. Blubaugh threw 38 pitches. They’ll probably have to send him down today for a fresher arm. Okert will be out of action tonight. De Los Santos too. And maybe Hader.
I don’t think Tatsuya Imai has the spine or the mental capability to take a Major League mound and produce for his team consistently.
Brutally honest? I think he’s got his head so far up his butt that he does not even consider what it means to be a team player. He’s been coddled all his life. And we’ve helped with that too. But what’s worse is that someone in our organization decided to give this guy a three years deal for far too much money and obviously, clearly, did not do the due diligence that could have saved 50 million and todays headaches.
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Thoughts
I can’t remember the last time both starters could not make it out of the first inning
Normally you get a lead in the first and your starter relaxes and lets it fly….not Imai
Yordan keeps this up and he will be in Barry Bonds territory where they intentionally walk him with the bases loaded
I’m still not sure whether Peña got the guy in the 8th inning to prevent the tying run from scoring – but I’ll take it
Hader is looking loose and on target
the only reason I’m not totally freaking about the bullpen getting overused was because of the day off Thursday – but it will more likely catch up cumulatively over the next few days
Sure could use a Framber-ish 8 inning outing
In the first I was thinking – man we are sure wasting it scoring 9 to start the game. By the 9th I was wishing we’d scored more
Brice doesn’t connect that often but holy crap he can launch them – I never saw that come down – I guess it cleared everything?
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Brutally honest… through 16 innings, in KC, the pitching staff has surrendered 15 runs! That is brutal. The pitching staff is trash for the most part.
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Good morning!
Brice Matthews gets my Player of the Series Award so far. I know, there is no such award. Yordan had a big inning on Friday night, but he already gets plenty of recognition. Brice needs to be studied. He’s an All-Star outfielder on the road. You don’t see regular pinpoint throws to the plate from left fielders. He’s throwing frozen ropes. Last night he put that one on a dime, on a fly. Alas, he’s an AA Corpus Christi guy at AC Park. He just can’t hit at home!
.125/.137/.222/.359 with a -3 OPS+
But he sure has when living out of a suitcase.
.289/.356/.478/.834 with a 135 OPS+
That’s almost half a season of stats. I don’t recollect ever seeing such a disparity in home/road splits.
Enyel had a 3.07 ERA going into Friday night. It’s 4.50 now. I think he’s gassed. Interestingly, the team is 18-11 when he pitches. 1 loss, 1 BS, 4 S, 5 hold. He’s been pretty good and he’s important to have around, healthy.
Sarge, you are right. It has not been pretty. But at least the Astros have figured out a way to prevail against a team that has admittedly looked terrible. I thought KC was an up and coming organization. Our starters gave up 9 of those 15 runs in just 5.2 innings. Burrows actually looked okay last night, but his ERA still went up. Joe came and got him quick. Probably a good thing.
It was nice to see a glimpse of our old Jose Altuve going up and getting that pitch a half a foot above the zone, beating the rain and tying the score with a 407 shot.
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Recently, I read a short paragraph, elsewhere, that stated Espada rests 3 – 4 starters every Sunday. Basically, it was a layup to the other team by playing lower ability players instead of the starters or just resting one player only on that day. I went back and looked at the results of every Sunday for this season.
Eleven Sundays, including today’s (6-14) game so far this season. The record…
3 wins against 8 losses.
The article rings true.
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What’s indefensible is having your best (current) starter going and deciding to handicap the team with such a lineup. I get it…rest people for the long season, veterans have expecations, they’re travelling to Detroit after the game….but at some point you have to decide you want to win and getting a series sweep is an opportunity you shouldn’t pass up the attempt for. Thanks, Dusty Baker.
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That sure is a bad Sunday won-loss record. I read that too. And ultimately, it is on Joe the manager.
But I’m not sure how indefensible yesterday’s line up was.
Vazquez would not be catching a day game after a couple of night games.
And I’m guessing the new guy Delgado was at third due to Parede’s sore foot.
Not seeing Altuve is a fair argument. But I’d counter by saying that Matthews keeps hitting on the road and his athleticism was a fair trade off to not having Jose out at second.
I guess Yordan could have gone to left with Jose at DH and Brice at second, but it’s clear that Joe and maybe others just don’t want to expose the best hitter in baseball to left field and what might happen out there.
In general, I think our biggest problem is simply a bad lineup from 5 or 6 to 9, regardless who is playing. If the top 4 guys have a sleepy game, then we’re not going to score much.
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I reluctantly admit you have a point. My initial reaction had a lot to do with Loperfido, who I like, hitting cleanup. I’m not sure who would be better slotted there. I really like Cam Smith as well, but he was 5th and that’s higher than I want him in the lineup most games.
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Devin, I like Cam and Joey both. But in a good lineup, they are both hitting 7,8,9. And I don’t know when we’ll ever get there.
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Thoughts
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Dan, going into Sunday we were lucky to have a few special performances built into two mediocre games against a bad team. I’m still pissed at what I witnessed from Imai. He unset the tone for the entire weekend over 38 unprofessional pitches in two thirds of an inning.
I’m really interested to see if we continue playing at the same level against a Detroit team that should be better than they have been. I’m hoping Hunter helps wake up this lethargic bunch.
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