Can the Astros come back in ’26? 5 reasons for and against

The last four weeks for Astros fans have been a fine time for those who enjoy such competitions as snail racing.

Back on May 20, the Astros had bottomed out at 20-31. They were 6 games back of the (This space for sale) A’s in the abysmal AL West and 5 games back of the Rangers in the Wild Card race.

Since then, they have oozed back into both races – ending up Sunday at 33-40, which left them 4 games back of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West and 3 games back of the A’s and Rangers for the last Wild Card spot.

While that is an improvement, there is certainly a sense that they need to pick up the pace, as someone or someones ahead of them will put their pedal to the metal.

So why or why not will the Astros come back and ease into the playoffs between now and the end of the season?

Five reasons the Astros will make the playoffs in 2026

  1. Yordan, Yordan, Yordan – Like location, location, location in real estate, Yordan is the most critical factor in the Astros’ success. He is currently leading or tied for the lead in the AL in hits, RBIs, and BA and is leading or tied for the lead in the majors in HRs, SLG, OPS, and Total bases. The Astros would not even be below average without him.
  2. Return of the Hunter – Nobody else is adding a CY Young candidate at this time of the season. Hopefully, he will not only lift the team physically with his performance. He will also lift them psychologically with his return.
  3. Backup to Yordan – The Astros’ opponents can walk Yordan, but the hitter behind him in the lineup, Christian Walker is second (behind Alvarez) in the AL with 52 RBIs. He is not near the hitter that Yordan is – but he is an RBI machine this year.
  4. A better bullpen – The return of Josh Hader (1-0, 2 saves, 0,00 ERA, 0.200 WHIP) has helped to deepen the bullpen immediately. Combining this with solid performances by Bryan King and Steven Okert and a bit of a revelation from rookie Alimber Santa has given fans some hope for the bullpen going forward.
  5. A solidifying rotation – With Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Peter Lambert and “good” Tatsuya Imai (OK – a big stretch) at the top of the rotation, with hopes that Mike Burrows will improve and the hope that someone from a returning group of Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski will give some solid assistance.

Five reasons the Astros will not make the playoffs

  1. Need help that never seems to come – They need too many things to go their way and they have not had things go their way in the last couple seasons.
  2. Surprises trending to the norm – Some of their early season surprises are coming back to earth. Kai-Wei Teng is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. Spencer Arrighetti with a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Enyel De Los Santos with a 18.00 ERA in his last 4 appearances.
  3. Overwork – Can Mike Burrows, Steven Okert, Bryan King, De Los Santos and A.J. Blubaugh handle the work load that has been handed them. Friend of the blog – Steven – has been harping on how far over his normal season pitch count, Burrows is on pace to run.
  4. Protection behind Yordan – Christian Walker’s numbers have been sinking since his early hot start. Since, May 4 – he is hitting .186 BA/ .239 OBP in 37 games. Carlos Correa is gone for the season. Isaac Paredes is hitting .175 BA in his last 29 games. Jose Altuve is slashing .190 BA/ .246 OBP/ .560 OPS in his last 28 games. It is a wonder that the other teams ever throw Yordan a strike.
  5. Health – The Astros health has been trending in the right direction after so much bad news in the early season. But they have been snakebit for the last three seasons at least. It is hard to believe they will suddenly hit a long healthy streak.

Baseballreference.com gives the Astros a 11.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.2% chance to win it all. What do you think about the Astros playoff chances?

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14 responses to “Can the Astros come back in ’26? 5 reasons for and against”

  1. 11.4% chance of making the post season per Baseball Reference? That sounds a bit low considering the M’s are just a game over .500. But I’m largely in agreement. Maybe it’s 20%.

    I don’t know if I’m the only one here in an Astro funk, but I just can’t find a good path ahead for this roster. We’re not talented enough. We’re playing .500 ball against really crappy teams. I don’t see a locked in club getting ready to reel off 8 or 10 wins in a row. Maybe the casual fan can be hoodwinked by Dana but as we’ve noted, plenty of folks have already stopped buying tickets.

    Weiss, Imai and Burrows have pitched a 130 plus innings for the Astros in 2026. Their combined ERA is 6.33. (I stole that stat from Crush City) Of course, Weiss is gone. Burrows can’t keep the ball in the park. And Imai messed things up so badly on Friday night, forcing the pen to get 25 outs, that Alimber Santa was sent down for a fresh arm yesterday. I wonder if the clubhouse is tired of Imai? Those three guys were Dana’s big acquisitions over the winter, at somewhere around 26 million for 2026. And Teng is becoming Teng again. Spencer is correcting. These are the guys we’re going to surround Hunter with. And don’t forget that Lambert, arguably our most effective man in the rotation was released by the Astros after opting out of his minor league deal in March.

    There was some noise on Sunday into Monday about Joe mailing in his roster instead of going for a sweep against the Royals. Joey Loperfido was our clean up man. But based simply on road stats, Matthews was easily the better choice over a struggling Altuve. And Paredes still has a bad foot. We don’t need him going back on the IL. Thing is, Dana Brown is still looking for that elusive left-handed outfield bat that really can hit. I keep saying the same thing, but regardless of what night it is, our 6, 7, 8, 9 in the line up pretty much stinks. If Yordan and a couple of guys at the top of the order have an off night, then we’re pretty much screwed.

    I’d like to see Dana Brown prove me wrong. Getting back to .500 by the All-Star break would be a significant sign of life for this club. My funk is just not letting me feel it though.

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  2. It all comes down to depth. There is none. Teng was the one guy that tubers/pundits were hanging the Brown acquistions on. Thats out. He probably just made his last start. Burrows needs work. Even his pitches outside the zone get tagged. When you throw a pitch 4 inches off the plate to the outside and a right handed hitter still reaches out and lines it to right field, you are just too hittable. He should be somewhere where he can work on deception and hiding the ball better during his delivery. He just reminds of a natural pitcher that tried to become a thrower and chased velo.

    Now they can choose to continue to make that somewhere the rotation. They are doing that with Cam. Keep learning kid. But neither Cam or Burrows are helping the Astros right now. The loss puts them 8 games under. 4.5 out, but that 4.5 and that 11% are both challenging not because of 4.5 but because of how many other teams sit between you and that leader. I don’t live in a world where I think Toronto, Baltimore, Texas and Oakland are all going to just get out of our way. Someone is going to get hot. The division seems more attainable than the WC.

    They are on pace to lose 90 games. Leaving Teng in to get spiced up in the 4th last night and have Okert save him is part of it. Espada needs to manage like his pants are on fire. Maybe if he was just shuffling deck chairs and they were all getting lit up anyway we would still blame him. Brown needs to give him more to work with. The problem is you got all these high priced guys and because you are trying to save on the margins, you trade Sanchez for a low cost guy, you trade Dubon for a low cost guy, you try and trade Meyers for a low cost guy (no one bit), you wanted to trade Paredes for a cheaper option, you filled in your rotation with cheap guys because the two guys you are paying a lot of money too in 2025 just stink. It’s these choices that have you on pace to lose 90.

    People say you can’t criticize Crane for being cheap, that he spends. But he is getting nothing in 2025 from Correa, McCullers, Javier, and Imai. Hader has pretty much given nothing. Altuve might as well be giving nothing. According to spotrac they currently have 67M sitting on the IL. And that doesn’t count Hader or Pena who just came off. Abreu has been awful at 6M, so much so that he owes this team a rebate or something. The Astros currently have 12 guys on the active roster that are making 1M or less. So I say, you get what you pay for. That’s what they wanted.

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    • Steven – spot on – but it sure hurts to see a team dissolve into a mess. They need so many “ifs” to get them moving in the right direction. Brown will only help if the rest of the rotation contributes. And that is looking shaky right now.

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    • Steven, I think Dana is deserving of his pink slip right now. And Joe too. Usually a mid season shock does not shock a club into playing better, so I still think Dana and Joe will go at the end of the season. But they will go.

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  3. Dan, I don’t know how you keep coming up with new angles. I keep failing at not saying the same thing over and over. You keep earning your big paycheck. Chip would have fired me a long time ago.

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    • Daveb

      Here’s the problem – I write this blog based on my love of the Astros and right now this team is hard to love.

      But if I could write in 2011 to 2014 – I can write through anything.

      However, back then I believed they were tearing it down in order to build it back up. Right now, I don’t see a direction and that makes it tougher.

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      • Back then the minor league system was incredibly fun to follow. In 2026 the minor league system is depressing. Then you watch the big league club and throw up a little in your mouth. Last year after a couple lethargic losses to bad clubs I wrote something to the effect of “let’s hope they aren’t looking back at this with regret at the end of the season” and of course one extra win would have given them a postseason appearance. This year I’m looking at a lot of lethargic losses to bad teams where Joe is probably saying, “well, we had to sacrifice this one” and thinking “these are piling up so fast they’re going to be buried by July.”

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  4. Thoughts

    • I feel your pain, daveb and frankly the pain of all who come here to commiserate about the Astros.
    • Yeah, when I saw Murray in the game doing his best Burrows impression I knew somebody who was better had been sent down due to that Imai melt down. Santa heads down with a 0.71 ERA over 8 appearances and he stranded the only runner he inherited. He also pitched 1.2 or 2 innings in 5 of his appearances. Unless there is an injury they cannot recall Santa for 15 days. Maybe they will send Murray back down to make room for Hunter Brown. But Santa is better than let’s say Bryan Abreu who I am guessing does not have any options.
    • Not that long ago we were thinking we could have a (mostly) good rotation when Brown returned. Arrighetti was dealing, Lambert was strong. Teng had strung some good starts and Imai had a few good starts after his IL stint. Burrows was not good but at least he was going deep. Note – that reminds me of an old joke. Two old ladies were talking about a nearby restaurant. “How’s the food there?” “Its bad – but such large portions.” Anyways now we have had the Imai meltdown. Teng has been bad for his last 4 starts – 8.83 ERA. Arrighetti has that 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Burrows has a 7.80 ERA in his last 6 starts. Other than Lambert this is such a mess that if Lance and/or Javier return they may actually have spots.
    • So, is Altuve warming up a bit on the power side? A couple homers recently.
    • Can this team even get to .500 this year? Not as currently constructed, it feels like.
    • Let’s say the Tigers sweep them – do they send Joe packing?

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  5. Great to see Hunter back. His demeanor on the mound instills a certain level of confidence and expectation too. There was little doubt he was going to keep us in that game. We had 9 hits and 4 walks to work with, but we needed the last place Tigers to play like a last place team. And Framber helped too, forgetting to cover first on a routine play until it was too late. That typical Framber lapse ultimately helped us score the first of our three unearned runs. I sure liked that seeing eye two run single up the middle by Delgado, but he is not a defensive specialist. And after all we’ve had to witness with the back of the pen this year, Josh Hader sure is a breath of fresh air, so far anyway.

    Peter Lambert gets the rubber match. I guess he’s our #2 man behind Brown now. Is he ready?

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    • That Delgado “hit” had eyes didn’t it. Just under two gloves, and the fact that it didn’t have a lot of steam really helped as any idea of a play on Cam at the plate was moot.

      None of that would have been possible if the starting pitcher gives up 5 in 3 innings. Brown is going to make the biggest difference we’ve seen to date.

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  6. You beat me to it this morning Dave. Its fun when the pitcher keeps you in the game. Framber pretty much controlled himself the entire night, having one moment where he got animated about the pitch clock violation but the rest of the time just focused. But great things happen when pitching keeps you in it, even a lethargic offense can sometimes take advantage of one defensive lapse and open up the flood gate for a half inning and bam you win a 4-2 game. This is how you are supposed to win in this league. Unfortunately, Hunter Brown is not the starting pitcher today, tomorrow, Friday or Saturday. The Astros have a long way to go, but at least we can reasonably expect that every fifth day we are going to be closer to a real baseball team, and that does a lot. He won’t win them all, there will be a 6 inning, 1 run appearance that it is our bullpen that gives it up and the other teams pen holds, and those will be frustrating as we lambast the offense, but that is baseball. Having your pitcher exit in the 1st after being handed a 9-0 lead is not baseball, its watching beer league softball.

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  7. Thoughts

    • Steven and daveb – yes, getting Hunter back was a big thing. The hope is that perhaps this will take some of the pressure off the other starters and they pitch better. OK – that may not happen, but hopefully Lambert continues on and some of the guys trend back towards their better selves.
    • Hunter – the guy who had a great 2.43 ERA in 31 starts last year (but only 12 wins) – continues on with a 1.10 ERA in 3 starts and only 1 win. They don’t have to score 10 runs when he is in the game, but could they score 4 (while he is in the game) – is that too much to ask.
    • I truly have been amazed at the bad fielding some of our opponents have shown against us at critical times. In that 3 run eighth inning – the third baseman booted an easy one right at him that allowed the Astros to have two on and one out rather than one on and two out. Then they did not at least knock down Delgado’s roller up the middle to save one run. And that does not even count the Framber not covering first faux pas.
    • Delgado did not hit that ball that hard, but he jumped on the first pitch in the middle of the plate and put it in play. Some of the vets could learn from that as they fiddle around with a runner on third and then strike out.
    • Yainer was back and lined that critical single in the 8th to right field. Let’s see more of that.
    • And as you said above – I am loving them turning the ball over to Hader. He is not perfect, but I wish his compadres could match his 1 walk in 6 innings. Makes a difference.

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  8. Dan, in reference to your writing back in 2011-2014. At least we knew and understood the plan…AND there were some guys in the minors and/or up and coming (e.g. Altuve, Keuchel, et al).

    Now, either there is no plan, or we don’t know it.

    AND, there isn’t much in the pipeline to focus on.

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