The last four weeks for Astros fans have been a fine time for those who enjoy such competitions as snail racing.
Back on May 20, the Astros had bottomed out at 20-31. They were 6 games back of the (This space for sale) A’s in the abysmal AL West and 5 games back of the Rangers in the Wild Card race.
Since then, they have oozed back into both races – ending up Sunday at 33-40, which left them 4 games back of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West and 3 games back of the A’s and Rangers for the last Wild Card spot.
While that is an improvement, there is certainly a sense that they need to pick up the pace, as someone or someones ahead of them will put their pedal to the metal.
So why or why not will the Astros come back and ease into the playoffs between now and the end of the season?
Five reasons the Astros will make the playoffs in 2026
- Yordan, Yordan, Yordan – Like location, location, location in real estate, Yordan is the most critical factor in the Astros’ success. He is currently leading or tied for the lead in the AL in hits, RBIs, and BA and is leading or tied for the lead in the majors in HRs, SLG, OPS, and Total bases. The Astros would not even be below average without him.
- Return of the Hunter – Nobody else is adding a CY Young candidate at this time of the season. Hopefully, he will not only lift the team physically with his performance. He will also lift them psychologically with his return.
- Backup to Yordan – The Astros’ opponents can walk Yordan, but the hitter behind him in the lineup, Christian Walker is second (behind Alvarez) in the AL with 52 RBIs. He is not near the hitter that Yordan is – but he is an RBI machine this year.
- A better bullpen – The return of Josh Hader (1-0, 2 saves, 0,00 ERA, 0.200 WHIP) has helped to deepen the bullpen immediately. Combining this with solid performances by Bryan King and Steven Okert and a bit of a revelation from rookie Alimber Santa has given fans some hope for the bullpen going forward.
- A solidifying rotation – With Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Peter Lambert and “good” Tatsuya Imai (OK – a big stretch) at the top of the rotation, with hopes that Mike Burrows will improve and the hope that someone from a returning group of Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski will give some solid assistance.
Five reasons the Astros will not make the playoffs
- Need help that never seems to come – They need too many things to go their way and they have not had things go their way in the last couple seasons.
- Surprises trending to the norm – Some of their early season surprises are coming back to earth. Kai-Wei Teng is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. Spencer Arrighetti with a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Enyel De Los Santos with a 18.00 ERA in his last 4 appearances.
- Overwork – Can Mike Burrows, Steven Okert, Bryan King, De Los Santos and A.J. Blubaugh handle the work load that has been handed them. Friend of the blog – Steven – has been harping on how far over his normal season pitch count, Burrows is on pace to run.
- Protection behind Yordan – Christian Walker’s numbers have been sinking since his early hot start. Since, May 4 – he is hitting .186 BA/ .239 OBP in 37 games. Carlos Correa is gone for the season. Isaac Paredes is hitting .175 BA in his last 29 games. Jose Altuve is slashing .190 BA/ .246 OBP/ .560 OPS in his last 28 games. It is a wonder that the other teams ever throw Yordan a strike.
- Health – The Astros health has been trending in the right direction after so much bad news in the early season. But they have been snakebit for the last three seasons at least. It is hard to believe they will suddenly hit a long healthy streak.
Baseballreference.com gives the Astros a 11.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.2% chance to win it all. What do you think about the Astros playoff chances?
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