When deciding on new topics for the blog, my mind wanders around some interesting and sometimes uninteresting places.
Today, I thought about – how close or how far away is this 2026 team from what the goal should be – a championship team like in 2022. I’m going to sledgehammer this home by looking head-to-head at the key position and pitching spots on the team.
#1 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Justin Verlander | Hunter Brown | 2022 – Verlander |
We are cheating a bit in including Hunter Brown as he only had a couple of starts before going out with an injury, but with the expectation of him returning soon, it is not out of the realm to expect him to be the ace of this team.
What is beyond the expectation is to expect Brown to outperform 2022 AL Cy Young winner Verlander and his 18-4, 1.75 ERA and 0.829 WHIP season
#2 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Framber Valdez | Spencer Arrighetti | 2022 – Valdez |
Spencer has been pitching quite well since his call-up a couple weeks into the season, though he has shown a few more blemishes the last couple of starts. But please raise your hand if you think Arrighetti will outperform Framber’s 17-6, 2.82 ERA coming in 5th in the CY race. I look at that league leading 3 complete games and 201.1 innings and miss it.
#3 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Cristian Javier | Tatsuya Imai | 2022 – Javier |
Javier was a quietly strong 3rd starter in 2022, his lack of luck in the win department covering up some of that success. He was 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and was famously part of both a regular season and a key World Series combined no-hitter. For Imai, we are really betting on the come based on his good performance in his last 4 starts since returning from his fainting spell IL stint. He is 3-3 with a 5.24 ERA overall, but 2-2 with a 2.91 ERA in those last 4 starts.
#4 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Luis Garcia | Peter Lambert | Push |
Lambert has come in from nowhere to be a steady support in this rotation, putting up a 5-4 record with a 3.54 ERA. This stands up well against Garcia’s 15-8, 3.72 ERA performance in 2022, but of course it is early to know if Lambert will be exposed or not along the way.
#5 Starter
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jose Urquidy | Mike Burrows | 2022 – Urquidy |
Burrows was expected to be the 3rd starter in this rotation, but has done his best to try and pitch himself out of it while leading the AL in hits, homers and runs allowed. Urquidy was a solid contributor with his 13-8 record and 3.94 ERA quite out running Burrows’ current 3-8 record with a 5.77 ERA.
DH
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Yordan Alvarez | Yordan Alvarez | 2026 – Alvarez |
Yordan was very good in 2022 with his 37 HRs and 97 RBIs, but he has been transcendent so far in 2026 as he is on a pace for 52 HRs and 113 RBIs while he is near or at the top of the AL in many categories. The key is – does he stay healthy in 2026. Plus, this ignores his series changing performances in the 2022 ALDS and in Game 6 of the World Series.
1B
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Yuli Gurriel | Christian Walker | 2026 – Walker |
Walker has been an excellent fielder, very comparable to Gurriel. He has also been a very key offensive player accumulating 16 homers and 48 RBIs before the halfway mark as compared to Gurriel’s 8 homers and 53 RBIs for the whole season.
2B
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | 2022 – Altuve |
2022 Jose earned an All Star and a 5th spot in the MVP race with that .300 BA/ .387 OBP/ .921 OPS slash. Though we hope Altuve improves over his current below average stats, he is not going to beat out those numbers in 2026.
SS
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jeremy Pena | Jeremy Pena | 2026 – Pena |
This is an interesting one as Pena’s current numbers are better than rookie Pena’s numbers, but….. it is hard to forget that Pena went nuts in the playoffs and was both the 2022 ALCS and World Series MVP. This choice is for the regular season only.
3B
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Alex Bregman | Isaac Paredes | 2022 – Bregman |
While Paredes has been warming up lately, it is doubtful he will get anywhere near most of Bregman’s numbers from 2022, especially his 93 runs scored and 93 RBIs.
C
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Martin Maldonado | Cristian Vazquez | 2026 – Vazquez |
Maldonado split time with both Jason Castro and Vazquez back in 2022. Vazquez was supposed to be the backup to Yainer Diaz this season, but due to injury has played more than Diaz. Maldy was one of the worst hitters in the majors back then, but a person might be justified in picking him over Vazquez due to his great work with the pitching staff.
RF
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Kyle Tucker | Cam Smith | 2022 – Tucker |
Tucker was an All Star, a Gold Glove and came in 15th in the MVP voting in 2022. Smith is struggling to show he belongs in the majors. Advantage Tucker.
CF
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Jake Meyers | Jake Meyers | Push |
The way the Astros split outfield chores in 2022 there are a lot of ways to look at this, but we will put Meyers in CF and Chas in LF. This is pretty much a push at this point.
LF
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Chas McCormick | Brice Matthews | 2022 – McCormick |
Chas was a solid contributor in 2022. Brice is a very poor offensive player in 2026. Vote for Chas.
Closer
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Ryan Pressly | Josh Hader | 2022 – Pressly |
Maybe not a fair comparison, since Hader has only had four appearances so far, but it is doubtful that he will match Pressly’s 33 save season in 2022. That does not even count Pressly’s 10 scoreless appearances with 6 saves in the postseason.
#2
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Bryan Abreu | Bryan King | 2022 – Abreu |
King has been very good and has even done well picking up saves along the way in 2026. Abreu and his 1.95 ERA and 13.1 K/ 9 IP was pure shutdown in 2022.
#3
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Rafael Montero | Steven Okert | 2022 – Montero |
Okert has been solid in his team leading 31 appearances with a 3.00 ERA/ 0.933 WHIP. Montero with his 2.37 ERA and 14 saves was so good he was given a 3 year contract that he never came close to earning.
#4
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Ryne Stanek | Enyel De Los Santos | 2022 – Stanek |
Stanek’s 1.15 ERA in 59 appearances sticks out in a career where he has never gotten below the 4.00 ERA mark since. De Los Santos has been, similar to Okert, very solid, but not near what Stanek was.
#5
| 2022 | 2026 | Winner |
| Hector Neris | A.J. Blubaugh | 2022 – Neris |
If you noticed that Bryan Abreu’s name has not appeared – you are right. Blubaugh has been over-worked – he has thrown 12 more innings than anyone else in the bullpen. His number are OK, but improving. Neris was a solid veteran who gave the team a 3.72 ERA over 65 innings. Neris is the pick, but Blubaugh could catch him.
So, that is a comparison between 19 of the prime players from both 2022 and 2026. By my assessment the final count is ….
2022 – 13
2026 – 4
Push – 2
The point of this was not to show that the 2022 Astros was better than the current version. We know that. It was to say that the current version of the team is so very far behind the 2022 version. There needs to be improvement all over the place to close this type of gap.
Note – Ironically, three of the four players on the 2026 team who won their comparisons above – were also on the 2022 team – Alvarez, Pena and Vazquez.
Should the team play 52 pick-up with this team and start over? Should they make strategic trades of those they will likely not re-sign (Pena, Brown, Alvarez??) and try to rebuild on the fly? Should they hope that somehow, they can close that gap above with minor tweaks? It will be a bumpy ride, no matter which road they pick.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 