It feels like time to unload a mix of thoughts from this clogged noggin of mine. So, without further ado….
- The LaMonte Wade Jr. situation – I came down hard on the Astros adding him to the roster. Others, like Steven have said they don’t like it that much but due to his talent at taking pitching and drawing walks he is worth a flyer.
After watching him play – I am OK with giving it a shot. He had one 0 for 4 game and another 3 hit game with a double, homer and an RBI.
The biggest complaint I ever had was that the team had not given Joey Loperfido a real shot (though an injury played into that). If Wade throws in a handful of 8 pitch walks and can keep the BA above .200 and the OBP well above .300 that will be OK.
- Can we live with Burrows in the rotation? – On the plus side, Burrows is leading the team with 13 starts, 73.1 innings and 60 Ks on the season. On the negative side he is leading the American League with 8 losses, 87 hits, 47 ERs and 17 Home runs allowed. He’s on a pace to allow 40+ home runs at this point. The big question is what happens when Hunter Brown returns. Dana Brown being asked about Burrows, indicated that he is here to be in the rotation and to learn and improve over the long run.
Just for comparison let’s look at the main rotation pieces when Brown returns…
| Name | Starts | ERA | WHIP | HRs/9 IP | Ks/9 IP | BBs/9IP |
| H. Brown | 2 | 0.84 | 1.031 | 0 | 14.3 | 5.1 |
| S. Arrighetti | 9 | 1.94 | 1.176 | 0.5 | 8.1 | 4.8 |
| T. Imai | 4* | 2.91 | 1.015 | 1.27 | 8.3 | 3.7 |
| K-W Teng | 6** | 4.00 | 1.407 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 4.7 |
| P. Lambert | 9 | 3.55 | 1.263 | 0.53 | 8.3 | 4.4 |
| M. Burrows | 13 | 5.77 | 1.568 | 2.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 |
* Showing Imai’s 4 starts since returning from the IL
** Showing Teng’s stats for his starts only
Looking at the stats, the no-brainers here to be in the rotation are Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Tatsuya Imai and Peter Lambert. Based on what Dana Brown said, we will probably see Kai-Wei Teng moved into a swing spot. He has been more effective as a reliever than as a starter, but has also shown he can be good out of either role (though his starting numbers are beginning to sag). If they need a 6th starter he would have to be the man.
It sure would be nice if Burrows stopped giving up so many homers. He’s given up 2 homers in 7 of his starts and at least 1 homer in 10 of his 13 starts. Of note, he has won 2 of the 3 games he did not give up a homer and had a no decision in the other.
Brown acts like he will not pull Burrows from the rotation, but is there a point where he will have to make a move?
Is this Yordan’s year for the MVP? – Ever since Yordan Alvarez’s crazy first half season where he easily lapped the field for the Rookie of the Year award (27 homers and 78 RBIs in only 87 games) Astro fans have been waiting for that MVP explosion. Don’t get me wrong, he has been overall excellent but still has topped out with 37 homers (2022) and 104 RBIs (2021) and with injuries taking away chunks of some seasons and limiting his effectiveness in others…he has never put it all together.
Currently, the only thing holding him back (now that Aaron Judge will miss time with thoracic surgery) is that he is mostly a DH.
The current odds on for the AL MVP are the following according to ESPN 2026 MLB awards tracker: Odds for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year – ESPN:
| Name | WAR | BA | OBP | OPS | HR | RBI | SB |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 3.7 | .280 | .354 | .810 | 9 | 27 | 23 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 3.2 | .316 | .431 | 1.080 | 22 | 48 | 1 |
| Ben Rice | 2.4 | .299 | .392 | 1.032 | 18 | 45 | 2 |
| Nick Kurtz | 2.7 | .276 | .431 | .927 | 12 | 45 | 7 |
- Witt is leading because he is the best overall player with speed and plays the most difficult position at SS.
- But….if you are in a tight ballgame, who do you want to face? Witt or Yordan.
- To put Witt in perspective – look at Jeremy Pena’s 2026 stats. His slash is .299 BA/ .354 OBP/ .789 OPS. If he had played the same amount of games as Wit this season – his other numbers factor out to be 3.0 WAR, 7 HRs, 27 RBIs, 7 SBs. Except for the stolen bases he is very close to Witt and as much as I love Pena, I don’t think he’s the MVP of this team much less the league.
- This comes down to how much the fielding comes into play on Witt’s side as straight away the hitting can only be strongly on Yordan’s side. It is an odd situation as neither the Astros nor the Royals are good teams this season (to date). It will be fascinating how this all shakes out.
What are you thinking about today?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
21 responses to “Astros 2026: Unloading some stuff”
What am I thinking about today?
I think we’ve got a mediocre team. I try to piece together a squad that will improve significantly. But my reality keeps finding long term mediocrity.
Maybe Hunter Brown will come back in and give the rotation a big boost and the other guys will follow along. Our present rotation is all the depth we’ve got. I can’t think of another guy I’d like to move into that group of 5 or 6. That’s why we’ll be watching Burrows into the immediate future. He reminds me of Mike Fiers in 2017 when he led the Astros in innings pitched and had a 5.22 ERA and a 1.428 WHIP. And looking ahead, I’m not going to count on Javier, Blanco, McCullers or any of the other guys coming off major injuries. Dana tried that last year. He sold it hard. It did not work.
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You are looking at it correctly I am afraid, Daveb. It is only hope that tells us that someone out of McCullers Jr., Javier, Wesneski, and Blanco might actually come back and be of value. I don’t know why Lance or Cristian will be any better this time around than they have shown coming off of surgery. I have a bit more hope for Wesneski based on his youth – Blanco – I just don’t know.
I was hoping the Astros could get a little momentum heading into the finale Sunday, but it was like so many times when they put up a 10+ spot and follow it up with a big nothing sandwich.
This article shows who the “experts” think might be the Astros main trading chip – Pena.
1 trade chip for every team ahead of 2026 Deadline
The team has not shown (except for the Tucker trade) that they are willing to abandon ship on the unsignable.
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With the “seers” predicting a Pena trade, who would take over for him? I looked at the farm and the pickings are mighty slim. The so-called “can’t miss” prospects are only in their first or second year of pro ball.
Shewmake or Allen for a complete season??
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I tend to agree that this team at best is pretty much mediocre. We’ve got a couple of good hitters, about 3 at a little above average, and a bunch below average and a couple that couldn’t hit their way out a a wet paper bag. The pitching is about the same as above. Mediocrity does not get into the playoffs much less than make a run at anything more. We’ve all talked about what happened and when this fiasco started but now we should look at what are the powers that be going to do about it. I could be surprised but I don’t think we’ll see any real positive results until some major changes are made and that includes the vision and thinking for the future.
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Cristian Walker had a .918 OPS in April, a .743 in May and has a .629 so far in June.
Christian Vazquez had a .920 OPS in April, a .520 in April and has a .631 so far in June.
Taylor Trammell had an .878 OPS in April, a .663 in May and has a .593 so far in June.
I illustrate these three guys because we all knew there had to be correction at some point. How they see-saw the rest of the way is impossible to say, but odds are we won’t see another April from them again. After Trammell, check out the .OPS figures from our other outfield options.
Loperfido .710
Smith .658
Meyers .610
Dezenzo .595
Matthews .570
Cole .542
It is of little wonder that Dana brought Lamonte in. Someone else said this earlier. He’ll pull a John Singleton on us. Don’t forget that every other ML club passed on Wade. The White Sox gave him a minor league contract. To me, Dana Brown’s biggest fail over the past three and a half years is that he’s been totally incapable of finding any outfielder that has hit for this team.
So where do we see the positives in our offense? Heck, if Yordan stays healthy, he might be in the running for MVP. But if the team wins just 75 games, they’ll find someone else to give the award to. Pena is going to make things happen offensively. He should be traded in the off season. I’d trade Paredes too, rather than paying him 13 plus million next year. Altuve might hit. He might not. But at least we don’t have to worry about trading him. It’s ironic, but Yanier Diaz might end up being one of our better hitters.
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Yeah – you were right to be clamoring for Brown to sign an outfielder the last two offseasons. Failure to do so is coming back to bite him. The big problem in trading Pena right now is you have to find a team in need of a SS with prospects you want and who is willing to overpay. At 4.5 / 2.5 out of the playoff spots right now I can’t imagine Crane is authorizing such a trade as it waves the white flag unless the return is one of those offers you can’t refuse. I’ve been against moving Paredes for quite some time, but ultimately he’s not taking you to the postseason on his back. I’d be listening to offers this July and certainly this offseason.
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Devin, Brown should have solved the outfield problem when he got his job three and a half years go.
As I noted, I’d be looking to move Pena in the off season. And if we continue to be a mediocre team, I’d listen at the trade deadline too.
Thing is, I don’t want to end up watching Pena walk at the end of 2027 and get nothing for him. And the free agent short stop market is very thin this winter. Pena would be in high demand.
Of course, as Chip has already noted, with a lock out very possible, anything that happens in 2027 is up in the air right now.
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The 4 seam fastball is by far Burrows weakness. Hitters are regularly getting solid wood on it. I don’t know if the coaches can help him with this pitch, but if not, it should be deleted. With this upcoming draft coming up, I hope that the Stros get some pitching.
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Very good point Larry.
Statcast has a .316 BAA on his 4 seamer. In 2025 he had a .325 BAA. Contact and hard hit rates are all drastically worse on the pitch. The numbers match your observation. I would say he should switch to a 2-seamer, or use the sinker has his velocity pitch, but I suspect he would not routinely cross 93 with either, and pitchers chase velocity the same way hitters chase the long ball.
It will be interesting to see who leaves the rotation when Hunter is ready, which I think might be by this weekend or early next week. Does Hunter take Burrows Saturday start? Or do they push Lambert out?
Lambert is the win now solution. Burrows is the guy that you have this year and 4 more years of control of. The patience they are showing with Cam’s growth is something I could see them doing with Burrows, but Cam does have 8 other guys in the lineup picking up slack, no one can pick up slack if a starter gets smashed, its likely just a loss. But Lambert has to be motivated, if he can keep this up he might get 7-9M in the offseason, or he could flounder and end up on minimum salary somewhere, if that. Take advantage of it.
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The best/better time for a Pena trade would seem to be in the off season. Correa would theoretically be back for ’27 and could play SS. Or perhaps you could get a higher-level SS prospect in the return/haul for Pena?
But the bugaboo in that thinking is that there may not be an ‘offseason’ of substance if the lockout goes into place. And, if the war that comes to MLB is Armageddon-like, it’ll take months to sort out all the pieces so there may not be a lot of trade activity.
The reality is that with Brown coming back soon, he’ll probably be enough of a ‘boon’ to push the Astros further into contention. The Astros could do worse than a Hader/Brown June ‘acquisition’. 😉
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Dan, to your question about Alvarez, if he can stay healthy, he has a shot.
It’s interesting to note that Alvarez has never — EVER — led the league in any key category (e.g. HR, RBI, OPS, TBB, IBB etc.) and right now, he’s leading in NINE different categories!
As for the rotation when Brown returns, it will likely still be a crapshoot. You may have a rotating rotation with the ‘hot hand’ of the day getting a spot. How long can Lambert keep it going. And, will they initially go with a 6-man to give Hunter more time to stretch it out? I haven’t heard anything definitive…and that’s probably because the Astros don’t know what they’re going to do either!
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Good morning. That would have been as tough loss. Instead, those Halo’s were looking out for our Astros.
Gosh, Altuve was out at the plate by a wide margin had the Angels been able to make an easy throw and catch at the plate. In that situation though, can’t really blame Jose for making it happen.
Nice throw by Matthews to get a compromised Trout at the plate though. No pinch runner available at that point in the game?
Shout out to Trey Mancini. One of the nice guys.
I guess Joey Lops will be flying in today to replace Lamonte. And Lamonte was hitting. Maybe he was not keeping his wheels in great shape though.
Sure is good to see Hader back doing what we tend to take for granted.
I hope these last two rough starts to Spencer starts are not an emerging pattern.
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Thoughts
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Chip pointed this out to me
Astros GM: “Zero Discussions” About Trading Alvarez, Peña – MLB Trade Rumors
Really not surprising with the Astros in the race. But you would think if they fell out of it – they would need to try and get value when they can especially with a potential strike year in 2027
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Nothing is going to any time soon, unless the Astros were to lose ten straight or something similar. But I wonder how many conversations within the organization that Dana Brown is not a part of.
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Dan, I tried your strategy of going to bed while the Astros were losing on the West coast. When I woke up they did not complete an epic comeback and still lost 10-1. What else do you have?
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Thoughts
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After a 4 and 5 homestead, losing 2 of 3 to the Angels would not be a good look. Especially with the way the squad looked last night. Joe might start looking over his shoulder.
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Here is Dave predicting the future.
At some point, this team has to realize that its just not a good baseball team. The fact that if you could play .500 in this league and still compete for the 3rd wildcard only matters if you can actually play .500 baseball.
I heard TK and Blummer last night talking the fact that at this time 2 years ago they were 9 1/2 out of any playoff spot and they got their act together. But that team was good. This one, is not. On any given night they have Loperfido or Trammell or Smith or some other bad (or at least inconsistent) bat batting in the middle of the order. Altuve should not bat leadoff even when Pena is not available. He was 0-12 with 6 Ks in the Angels series.
What I couldn’t figure out about last night was why would you not pinch run for Alvarez in the 9th but then do pinch run for him in the 10th? If Pena had been on 1st base when Walker hit the double the game ends in a win in the 9th. Instead, he ended up removing Yordan anyway, and then Abreu does what this new version of Bryan Abreu does, pitch like he morphed into Rafael Montero. Espada strikes again.
I will say this, thank goodness I’m not running the Astros. I would have given Abreu a 5 year deal two offseasons ago. Can you imagine us watching this mess knowing he is getting 12M a year for the next 3 years? This is why I’m no baseball exec.
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And the guy I feel bad for is Peter Lambert. He is no Cy Young contender, but the man just keeps going out every week and keeping you in the game he pitches. He doesn’t win because he also just pitches bad enough to let a good start from the opposing pitcher snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – but the most disappointing part of last night was watching a guy we have owned in the past pitch 5 perfect innings and give a 6 IP, 1 run line.
From what I can gather, his worst start was 17 May against Texas, 6 IP, 5 ER, but he had thrown 6 innings of pretty good ball and got sent out there in the 7th at 85 pitches. He had another at 5 IP, 4 ER that was, mediocre, at best. But the other 8 starts, he deserves better than a 5-5 record in his 10 games. But this lineup is just utter disgraceful for a supposed contender. And last night, Joe once again sent him out there in the 7th, I don’t remember the exact pitch count but well into the 80s, and he had to have Enyel and a great play by Walker get him out of another jam.
Last night was the exact game I’m talking about when I say Espada is great when the roster is great. He manages egos. He keeps everything level. He lets the guys do their things. He says the right things to the press. When you have a good roster, he is a Dusty Baker understudy, he can keep a car humming. But don’t give the man a fixer-upper. He is no mechanic. He just can’t push the right buttons. Maybe he doesn’t have all the right buttons. He sent Trammell out to pinch hit for Vazquez, I’m sure he didn’t tell Taylor to go up there and strike out on 3 pitches. But he did it anyway. Vazquez would have given him a better at bat.
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If we can’t win 4 of 6 out of the next two series it’s just about all over. I just watched Stone Cold Stros and they’ve kind of put it in perspective. This is a bad team. I don’t believe that all of the sudden the bottom half of the order is going to start ripping the cover off the baseball. And as much as we love him Altuve is becoming a poster boy for the “K” award out an increasing percentage of 25% and rising. Cam Smith at a 31%, Brice at 35% and 4 at greater than 40%. I saw several batters take two pitches for strikes and and then swing at a pitch in the dirt or a foot off the plate. It’s really depressing. Keep this up and the stands will look half empty. Then maybe they’ll make some changes.
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