This is a critical time in the off-season for the Astros relative to personnel. The following deadlines occur or have already occurred that drive decisions by the front office.
- By November 2, teams had to decide whether to offer their own free agents a qualifying offer, a contract for one year at $17.9 million. In the whole of the majors, only seven players were offered Q.O.’s including Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel, the only Astro offered a Q.O. had 10 days to accept the one-year contract or opt to go into free agency and he opted to become a free agent. The Astros will get a compensatory pick when he signs with another team.
- By this coming Tuesday, November 20, the Astros must finalize their 40-man roster heading into the Rule 5 draft. Players who have been with the organization a certain amount of time (between four and five years depending on their age when drafted) can be picked by other organizations if they are not on the 40-man roster, but they have to be kept on the major league roster for a whole season. So they will add or subtract minor leaguers by Tuesday based on whether they think they risk losing them.
- By November 30, the teams need to tender arbitration offers to players they wish to keep who are eligible for arbitration. Those who are non-tendered are free agents.
So, the first question is where are the Astros vs. the 40-man roster. Per the Astros web site, the following players are currently on the 40-man roster.
- Gerrit Cole. Arb eligible
- Dean Deetz.
- Chris Devenski. Arb eligible
- Reymin Guduan.
- Will Harris. Arb eligible
- Josh James.
- Francis Martes.
- Lance McCullers Jr. Arb eligible
- Collin McHugh. Arb eligible
- Roberto Osuna. Arb eligible
- Brad Peacock. Arb eligible
- Cionel Perez.
- Ryan Pressly. Arb eligible
- Brady Rodgers.
- Hector Rondon.
- Joe Smith.
- Framber Valdez.
- Justin Verlander.
- Chris Hermann. Arb eligible
- Max Stassi.
- Jose Altuve.
- Alex Bregman.
- Carlos Correa. Arb eligible
- J.D. Davis.
- Yuli Gurriel.
- A.J. Reed.
- Tyler White.
- Derek Fisher.
- Tony Kemp.
- Jake Marisnick. Arb eligible
- Josh Reddick.
- George Springer.
- Myles Straw.
- Kyle Tucker.
This means that the Astros could theoretically add six minor league players to the 40-man roster without making any other move. However, this would not take into account any players added by trade or free agency. On the other side there could be more spots available (eventually) if the Astros are not going to tender all the arbitration-eligible players or if they want to part ways with any of the folks on the roster who may be just taking up space.
Likely actions:
- It is likely the Astros will add four players or so from their minor league rosters – see the following link to “what the heck bobby” for those eligible to be poached from the minors https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2018/09/2018-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html
- Based on their inclusion on the Arizona Fall league rosters, it would seem that Drew Ferguson, Trent Thornton and Erasmo Pinales would be moved on to the 40-man roster. Due to lack of catchers on the 40-man, Garrett Stubbs should be automatic. If they go beyond adding four, it would seem some of their high-end pitching might be next, such as Cy Sneed, Rogelio Armenteros or Brock Dykxhoorn.
- If the Astros are looking to move anyone off the 40-man roster by trade or by exposing them to being picked up by others, Brady Rodgers (same age as Cole and Devenski) would seem to be the most at risk.
- Of the players who might not be offered arbitration, Jake Marisnick, Will Harris and Chris Hermann would seem to be at risk. With what they saw of Myles Straw in a short call-up, Mr. Marisnick would seem to be the most likely to be by-passed.
- And of course….if the Astros sign FAs or make trades in the early going this could certainly change the dynamics of their decisions.
So, if the Astros add four from their minors, let a Rodgers and a Marisnick go, they will head into the hotter part of the Hot Stove League with four spots open on the 40-man. If they want to add more than four players from outside they will have to expose someone to the Rule 5 draft or possible waiver pickup at a later date or include 40 man player or players in a trade.
What do you think they will do in the next couple days and weeks?
