The value of spring training stats…

Your loyal servant was perusing the Astros 2026 spring training statistics (to date) and was wondering how much it matters.

Reasons I am wondering:

  • Small sample sizes – no one who is likely to make the final roster has thrown more than a few innings or taken more than a handful of at bats
  • Early spring training fluctuation – do I worry about Jason Alexander giving up 4 runs in 0.2 innings his first time out, or do I rejoice over his 2 scoreless innings second time out
  • Who? – When you look at these ST lineups from both sides, there are a lot of ABs and IPs being taken up by not only non-26-man roster folks, but also non-40-man roster ST invites. Who is playing behind the pitchers? Who are they getting out that matters? Who are our hitters facing?
  • Figuring it out – You also never know who is working on a third or fourth pitch, a new tweaked swing, etc. Sometimes they are getting bombed on their worst pitch.

So, being the curious sort, I  thought I would look back at stats from the 2025 spring training and decide whether they had value.

Reasons to rely on Spring Training Pitching Stats (2025)

Reasons not to rely on Spring Training Pitching Stats (2025)

Reasons to rely on Spring Training Position Player Stats (2025)

  • Jake Meyers – .306 BA (.292 BA in the regular season)
  • Chas McCormick – .176 BA (.210 BA in the regular season)
  • Jeremy Pena – .475 BA (.304 BA in the regular season) – yeah, I know – but c’mon nobody is hitting .475 in the regular season

Reasons to not rely on Spring Training Position Player Stats

And on and on.

Point being – do not become despairing or overjoyed by what you see in spring training. Similarly, do not get too out of whack or too happy with what you see in the first month of the regular season. It may track closely for some players, but not for others. But as we say, each season is a marathon, and there are many games that add up to those 26+ miles. And ST does not even count.

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27 responses to “The value of spring training stats…”

  2. When I retired, we purchased a dwelling in Stuart, Florida. We haven’t missed Spring training since, but we usually don’t leave Louisiana and get there until mid March. When we first started this routine, the Dodgers were in Vero, Melbourne had a team and the Stros were in Kissimmee which I hated. I would usually wait for them for the Cardinals in Jupiter and the Mets right below there. I love them being in West Palm

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  4. Larry, sounds like you’ve got things well arranged. Early March is holding pattern time for me. But in general, I think we’ll have pretty good pitching and not so good hitting, an extension of what we’ve been seeing over the first couple of weeks.

    I’m glad Brice Matthews is getting some looks in center. Reddick says he runs good routes, and clearly he’s an athletic guy. Lefty or righty, it’s all about getting on base, stealing one and scoring from second in a single. What is Brice going to go in AAA all over again. Maybe taking him to the next level get him to play next level ball.

    And I mentioned this the other day. I hope Zach D. gets playing time every day for the Italian team in the WBC. Might be his best shot right now.

    One note on Hader. I don’t think he’s going to pitch anytime soon. So I hope all those arms we’ve got hanging around right now are challenging each other for a job. I don’t want Abreu to become our closer, unless the experts have determined there is a way to change up his approach. He just was not fooling guys in the 9th. Or else he’s just missing the closer mentality.

    Did our Opening Day back up catcher hit a two run shot last might?

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  5. Spring training stats, even after a few weeks, seem useless. They can lead you down the path to the darkside and convince you this guy is going good and this one is not, and bam you get it all wrong.

    I do like to see the at bats and pitches though. Just look for the things that indicate they are prepared, velocity, command, are hitters staying in the zone and not chasing, are they hitting it hard, etc. Small sample can lead you down a bad path; two seeing eye grounders can give you a good average – two line drives right at the SS but hit on the button can depress your average. Same thing can happen to a pitcher; a hitter hitting your pitch, which happens to them all sometimes, and next thing you know you have a 3 run inning and your spring stats are shot.

    I’m not a WBC guy, I would just as soon not watch a bunch of Americans whose great grandparents lived in Italy play for the Italy team. Just get ready for the season, so I’m really not watching anything right now.

    I’m very interested in Walkers ST at bats. Just watching for the speed he is approaching at bats. Is the bat crisp in the zone? Is his body language aggressive and confident? Does he look like the head is getting into the zone quickly and violently? Are does he look like the same slow most of the time hitter he was for the majority of last season? I don’t care if he hits .125 or .325 in ST, I want to see the swing.

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  6. I think you’re misunderstanding something here. I complained the other day that our guys are doing nothing at the plate. I firmly stand by that criticism. Hitting a double in March doesn’t put a run on the board in games that count. What it does is it gets one extra guy to the plate who not only gets to see pitches, but gets to seem them in a situation where the pitchers approach is different than if no one is on base. String those together and your roster gets more opportunities to get ready for the season. I think there is mentally a benefit to having a reasonably good spring as well, but we’ve seen plenty of guys like like All Stars until they played in the real stadiums so I won’t get too invested there.

    dave, I’m not concerned about Abreu if he has to close early in the year. I’m concerned about what happens when Espada burns him out again.

    Steven, I hate the WBC because of the timing. I don’t believe pitchers are ready for the workload. I worry about what the stress of those early games does to their chances of finishing the year healthy and strong. I do understand why the fans and players from other countries enjoy it so much though.

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  7. Larry – that sounds like a lot of fun each spring. Any great memories that stick out over the years?

    Astro Nut – Amen to that. I don’t think I knew that Pearson had offseason surgery (big surprise with our under the radar medical dealings). That does not sound good. But Hader starting to throw bullpens is good news even if he is not ready opening day.

    daveb – Interesting take on Abreu. Did he just fail as a closer, because he did not mentally prepare to do it? Will he mentally prepare for it this season? I can’t believe it is because he doesn’t have the “stuff”. Fascinating split for him:

    • Abreu pitching in the 8th inning in 2025 – 0.56 ERA/.157 BA/ .271 OBP/ .476 OPS
    • Abreu pitching in the 9th inning in 2025 – 6.05 ERA/ .280 BA/ .352 OBP/ .742 OPS

    That sounds like a problem between the ears

    Steven – as usual you have an interesting and unique take on things. Yeah – I have never watched one inning of WBC. No interest. By the way have you seen anything with Walker yet? Has he even played?

    Devin – I am only saying that not only is this small samples – but it is also really, really small samples for guys who will actually be in Houston this year – that’s all.

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    • Dan – I’m going to correct myself. I generally don’t care about games that don’t count period. I don’t watch ST either, I’m just saying IF I did, I wouldn’t pay attention to ST stats I would be trying to get a feel how they are seeing the ball, or for pitchers, is velocity where it’s supposed to be, command, etc. Not so much result. So, no, I haven’t seen Walker hit more than that 1 walk (I did see that one because I tuned into Ryan Weiss, and there wasn’t a pitch close enough for him to not lay off). Hey, I saw a little Weiss too, and his command was iffy but he was hitting 96-97 pretty consistently.

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  8. When I play fantasy baseball, I actually DO take into account the spring training stats of players.

    For instance: in 2001, I drafted two players who were suppose to start the year in the minors but I took a flyer on them according to their ST stats. Unfortunately, that was the 9/11/01 year, but I did win big and these two players were the backbone of my team.

    Those players: Roy Oswalt and Luis Pujols.

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    • Thinking about it – Pena is the last of the 4 “starting” infielders that I would want to lose to injury to give Paredes more playing time. My list in order would be:

      • Walker
      • Correa
      • Altuve
      • Pena

      Pena would be last because of his combination of top notch glove and offense at a position that normally is not that solid offensively. Yes, I know we can put Correa at short and Paredes at third – but Correa is no longer as good a fielder or hitter as Pena.

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      • Apparently a finger nail issue. And if it’s significant, there is probably a pretty good change Correa will be at short on Opening Day. This WBC thing: MLB sabotaging MLB.

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      • Espada CAN put Correa at SS, but WILL he?

        I’m sure he is going to be asked that question sometime today.

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    • I see what you did there.

      I don’t think Pena is going to miss opening day though from this. But maybe.

      I’ve also yet to hear the Astros say that Correa would play some SS this year at all. Not saying he won’t, just saying, I’m sure someone has asked them the question “what if Pena misses time for something, would Carlos be the fill in?” I’m thinking this out from a Baker point of view (Espada’s teacher). I think they would be more prone to play Nick Allen there. But shifting Correa back to SS and putting Isaac in the lineup sure solves a lot of problems, at least for the time Pena would miss. Which shouldn’t be much.

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  12. Steven/Dan, if nothing else, this highlights the importance of keeping Paredes around. If, as Dan suggests, Pena is the least of the four you’d want missing time, it’s reasonable to expect the other three (Walker, Altuve, Correa) will miss time.

    Between the three infield positions and DH, I could see Paredes getting 140 games in easily.

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  13. Good morning. I don’t think any kind of finger fracture is going to heal short of the World Series starting on March 26, especially with whatever new injury protocol the Astros are bound to be working with. It would probably be a bad look to have Jeremy suffer a setback of some sort. The Astros will be very conservative with this latest Astro WBC aggrevation.

    I have to assume Lance will be starting today or tomorrow, as he threw his first live game pitches of the pre-season last Friday. His coming outing has to be considered a big one. Can he get from 8 pitches last week to 80 before the season starts?

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    • Right now they are showing Burrows starting today and Alexander tomorrow. That doesn’t mean Lance can’t also pitch in one of those games or perhaps be pitching in some backfield “games” with the minor leaguers.

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      • Hypothetically, if Lance ends up our 5th or 6th starter, that means he won’t have his first start for 24 or 25 more days. But you know me Dan, I’m dubious. Those backfield outings are simply not the same. All we’ve to go by is 8 deliveries. Hopefully I’m full of it and Lance will throw a couple of innings, maybe 25 pitches, today. Imai threw 30 last night and Arrighetti 55.

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    • Bases I think. I would guess that Salazar is still going to be the guy because he has no options. I just don’t know the details of Vazquez’s deal. Did the Astros give him a contract that says he can opt out if he doesn’t make the opening day roster?

      Vazquez is at a point that he can’t hit water falling out of a boat. Salazar is a better hitter. If Yainer catches a foul ball off the shin and misses 3 weeks Vazquez will kill you. If Vazquez is a back up you really won’t notice when he bats just 7-8 times a week between 1 or 2 starts and stepping in for Yainer on a pinch runner in the 8th type spot. Rely on him to bat 25 times in a week he will be a considerable downgrade from Salazar IMO. If Vazquez and Perez can split time at AAA, and Janek catches AA as the primary guy with Bush backing him up, with Bush getting time at 1B and DH also, it looks a lot better.

      How I think it will play out though has nothing to do with how it will play out. I just can’t see Salazar getting through waivers.

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  16. Maybe early but these guys at present couldn’t hit the ball if it were placed on a tee. No need inputting down the stats for everyone to look at since you can see on the website but if this is an indication of what we can expect don’t think we’ll get anywhere near winning 85 games. more like 58 if we’re lucky. Pitching looks a little better but if you can’t score runs then you can’t win games.

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