If a stranger from the future had told you that the Astros were going on the road to face the Phillies, who had been one of the hottest teams in the majors for about the last 6 weeks and would win two of three, you might have thought – that is interesting, but not totally crazy.
If he told you the Astros would be starting Hayden Wesneski, Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier (against Zach Wheeler) and they lost the game Brown started but still won 2, you might be intrigued.
If he told you all-everything DH Yordan Alvarez would go 2 for 13 in those 3 games (and the 2 hits were in the loss) you might wonder how they won 2 of 3.
If he told you they were having to move Bennett Sousa (who had been bombed) into the leveraged inning circle of trust, you would continue to doubt they could do it.
Etc….I could go on.
The three-game series just completed was just the latest in a series of positive things happening out of thin air for the local club.
Consider this:
- The Astros are three games over .500 (75-72) while being outscored by 40 runs on the season (662-702)
- Per a system called the Pythagorean W-L, they should have a 70-77 record based on that gap in runs scored
- The Astros are only 37-38 at home. That is a crappy 20th in the majors for a home record and 11 out of 15 in the American League.
- The Astros starting pitchers have a 4.93 ERA for the season – 14 out of 15 in the AL.
- The Astros starting pitcher with the most wins is Peter Lambert with 8 – but his last win is exactly 2 months ago.
- The Astros’ starting pitcher with the second-most wins is Spencer Arrighetti, with 7 – though he was traded away at the end of July.
- The Astros’ starting pitcher with the third-most wins is Tatsuya Imai, with 6 – but he was dropped from the starting rotation around the same time Arrighetti was traded away.
- The Astros may have the worst hitting OF in baseball history (oh wait – maybe that is the 2013 Astros). Cam Smith (.219 BA) “leads” a crew of the lost who have taken turns rotating through. Taylor Trammell (.208 BA), Daulton Varsho (.187 BA), Lamonte Wade Jr. (209 BA), Jake Meyers (.213 BA), Joey Loperfido (.216 BA), Zach Dezenzo (.213 BA), Brice Matthews (.197 BA), Zach Cole (.157 BA), Lucas Spence (.162 BA), Nelson Velasquez (.100 BA), and Jorge Barosa (.000 BA). Dustin Harris (.226 BA) must be wondering what he did wrong to get dropped.
My momma told me that starting pitching is critical to a team’s success. Momma, you were a liar.
So, what is driving this team to have what is estimated to be (at the moment) a 95.5% chance of making the playoffs?
- They are 13-25 in blowout games (5+ runs or a margin of 5+ runs). Sounds counterintuitive, but it means they were outscored by at least 60 runs in blowout games, which kind of skews the run margin over not that many games.
- They are fourth in the AL in runs scored (tied with tonight’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays).
- Josh Hader is 25 for 25 in save opportunities.
- Bryan Abreu, who was Godawful in his first 22 games (7.91 ERA), has been excellent in his last 38 games with a 1.40 ERA (4 wins, 5 saves, 9 Holds).
- Steven Okert (unfortunately on the IL) has been excellent in that sixth or seventh inning role.
- Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena were a Batman and Robin dynamic duo (until they weren’t) for a big chunk of the season.
- The Astros hitters have been taking turns being a hero even when their overall numbers suck. Cam Smith has been on a recent power surge, including three homers in the last three games. Yainer Diaz has been stealthily rising. Jose Altuve has a small resurgence at the bat to try and get us to ignore his glove. Isaac Paredes has been steady Eddie and hopefully teaching others to be so patient. Christian Walker exasperates and then he does something good.
- Despite the overall numbers for starting pitchers, a few of them have been doing well. Lambert continues to pitch solidly, but with no winning luck. Hayden Wesneski and Cristian Javier have decided that maybe Astro pitchers can recover from surgery and help the team. Hunter Brown is really good (except for his Framber-ish meltdowns).
- Despite my gripes about him, Manager Joe Espada is somehow getting a winning effort out of a team that sometimes looks overmatched. He has been making lemon meringue pie out of lemon Pledge for most of the season and has a great attitude about it, even though most of us think he is a lame duck.
So, hang on, my Astro brothers and sisters. This team has done more with less most of the season. They just have to keep it up a little longer.
23 responses to “Astros’ 2026: How are they doing this?”
The Mrs. and I weren’t paying attention… why was Ullola pulled after one clean inning??
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Sarge the intent was to use Ullola for only one inning (his normal) and then let King pitch against the lefty’s.
And I guess I jinxed Abreu with my praise above.
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No worries, the Rangers are being the Rangers.
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I heard TK state that the Rays led the AL with 140+ stolen bases. I looked at the Mrs. and we both said that Astros had about 45 stolen bases.
I do hope Crane hires someone from the Rays again as GM.
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No Superman capes last night. No big hits. Abreu became human once again. But the Rangers lost too.
We’ve had fun watching improbable wins. Our lovable, frustrating, mediocre group has provided some special moments. But they still are pretty darn mediocre. Lucky for us, the Rangers are likely going to remain a bit less than mediocre and the M’s almost need a miracle at this point.
Is it okay to be comfortable with winning one of three in Tampa Bay?
Now those guys look like a post season baseball club.
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Yordan is out for a second day in a row.
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I am really disappointed with how Dana Brown has let this team run down so very badly.
Espada is running Blubaugh into the ground. He has 90+ innings already.
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How are they doing this? Well, the last two days they were not doing it. Peter Lambert must be the most snake bit starter around – at least for the last couple months. Would Yordan have made a difference? Not the way he has been hitting lately, but maybe.
Rangers and Mariners both won – so another chance to drive nails in those coffins missed.
Today Heyden Wesneski against Freddy Peralta. The stats put it in the Astros favor, but they need some offense today that has been missing the last two.
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They are doing it while sleepwalking. Today’s (9/13) game was terrible.
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Twelve games to go. Would it be wrong for me to hope the winner of our division has a losing record overall? I don’t know if anyone deserves to make the playoffs.
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You would think that we should make it but we tend to play terrible against the losing record teams. 4 against the A’s, 3 against KC, and 2 against the M’s. Atlanta will probably take at least 2 of 3. The Rangers have a better chance but if we don’t play Very Good baseball we’ll be watching the playoffs form our couch. It’s time for all hands on deck and to play smart baseball. That means error less games, no stupid base running faux pas, and good managing. Haven’t seen a lot of that this season but we’ll find out what the team is made of. And of course good and TIMELY hitting with good pitching. And we can’t depend on Texas going into the tank. We win we’re in. Can’t say it much more than that.
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I was more annoyed at the Texans finding several different ways to shoot themselves in the foot yesterday. And when they took the ball back with about 5 and a half minutes left with the lead and good field position, they should have closed the game out rather than going into very conservative play calling, ending up with a 3 and out. You don’t want to give the ball right back to the Bills. We knew what was going to happen. And having a quarterback that seems to get the yips in big situations has to be a concern.
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I didn’t make it down for the game yesterday, but this morning I was reflecting on the fact the Texans have given me the chance to see so many Hall of Fame quarterbacks lead game winning or go ahead drives late in the 4th quarter of games over the years.
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The Astros have tried. Yordan and Hader have had career years. Hunter has not. Altuve continues his decline. Lambert and Wesneski have been mostly reliable, better than expectations. We’ve had a couple of spectacular fails, led by Imai. Maybe our expectations of Pena were too high after his breakout in 2025. When he slumps, it affects his defense too, which is not remarkable. He seems to get into a lackadaisical funk from time to time. Joe keeps managing for his Astro job. I don’t think he can save himself at this point. We are a mediocre group that needs a whole new short and long term revitalization plan. Sure we can make it into the post season. That’s just not enough though.
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I think Joe understands the score. He probably knows (and has probably been told) that it’s only fair to a new GM to be able to get the guy he wants. Really, he is auditioning for a new person that even that new person doesn’t know about. Impossible situation. The best thing he can do is exactly what Dana said, win every game you can, try and get this team to the playoffs, and if you can do that, it’s resume.
I actually like how aggressive he has been lately. Maybe a little to heady on the L/R platoons, but mostly he is finally managing the way I said he needed back in June. This is a seriously flawed roster full of AAAA guys, so manage them that way. Pants on fire. Find every little bitty advantage you can in every spot. Fast hooks on pitchers, he hasn’t been scared to take guys out of the rotation – even if he is forced to go back to them later for lack of options, at least he isn’t taking the mentality of giving someone 10 starts now. IMO Pecko made 1 too many starts, but at least it wasn’t 7 too many starts.
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dave, devin, zanuda, sarge. You’re all correct. Spot on.
This goes beyond weird and silly.
As bad as this team is, they are still only a game and a half away from a first-round playoff bye.
That’s the ‘product’ that Manfred and baseball have given us…they call it parity, but it wreaks, especially since they’re all making millions. It’s like the little leagues now where everyone gets a trophy and everyone walks off into the sunset singing kumbaya.
But the one team that’s really good in the AL spends only $90 million a year…they’ve figured out the system. Oh wait, they hire good people who know what they’re doing. I couldn’t even tell you who the owner of the Rays is! Can you, without looking it up?
Everyone knows who owns the Cowboys. Everyone knows who owns the Astros. Everyone knows who owns the Yankees. And look at the mess because those owners can’t stay out of the middle of it all.
Okay, stepping off my soap box now.
Have a good day!
P.S. Devin, would it be wrong, you ask? Would it be wrong to hope the SECOND place team in the league who gets a bye…has a losing record? (It’s possible!)
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Chip, I’m not going to blame the Astros 240 million payroll of mediocrity on Manfred. No sir, the Astros organization did that to themselves.
The real problem is that the present brain trust will likely not get out of the way even if they are fortunate enough to hook an excellent GM talent, and I’m not sure the best of candidates will want this particular GM job.
And once and for all, the minor league system needs to start getting better. It’s time to quit blaming lost draft picks. Do you guys realize that besides Springer (signed in 2011) and Tucker (signed in 2015) the Astros have not put a home grown outfield talent on an All Star roster in the past 15 years? Hunter Pence represented the Astros in the same 2011 season Springer was signed.
That is exceptional developmental futility.
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Dave, I guess I’m not being very clear. Yes, the Astros have shot themselves in the foot/feet. Crane, in my estimation, is the main instigator. The difference in the Rays and Astros is the people running the organization.
Still, Manfred has created a horrible product overall. Not a fan at all of how he’s changed the game and the watchability of it.
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Chip, seeking specifically to Manfred’s legacy, I’ll frequently walk away from a game when it happens to go extra innings. To me, no rule change has messed with the integrity of the game as the man on second base has. And the folly of it is that MLB recognizes that folly by switching back to real baseball once the post season starts. We have to remember though Manfred’s bosses were ok with that rule change.
But I’m good with the ABS system for the most part. In fact, I’d probably make it a three challenge rule. I’m good with the pitch clock. Like the DH, the clock does not seem to be a big deal at this point. At least until someone releases a study that directly ties pitcher injuries to the rule. I prefer the quicker pace of today’s game.
I was adamantly opposed to the shift rule because I thought the players would ultimately beat shifts by becoming better hitters; learning to hit to the opposite field, dropping down an almost free bunt base hit. But these days, we don’t spend too much time talking about how the new shift rules ruined a game because they don’t really.
I’ll stay away from the inevitable lockout coming this winter. We’ll have plenty of time to talk about that later.
But I don’t agree that Manfred has created a horrible product overall.
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I’m certainly not a professional at evaluating organizational issues. Nor do I know what goes on in the halls of Daikan. I will say I don’t blame Crane completely. He hired scouts and GM’s and AGM’s and coaches and a whole litany of guys that he expected to draft the right guys, sign the right guys, and it’s went sideways. Then he felt he had to step in, and he has clearly made it worse.
Maybe he shouldn’t have an ex-ballplayer advising him on roster construction. I don’t know many of them that have ever been good at it. The Giants are gone. They entrusted a former player. I’m sure Jeff Bagwell and Buster Posey have forgotten more about baseball than I’ll ever know. They want to talk about hand placement or tell me I’m turning the wrists over too soon or I’m all ears. The one thing they fail at, in my estimation, is future evaluation.
They break baseball down to the minutia. They can tell you how to recognize this pitch or that pitch out of the hand, or how to pick up spin, or how to use your wrists to pick up an extra .5 MPH on your swing. Bagwell can sit in the booth and predict what a pitcher is going to throw with like 80% accuracy. Their ability to pass on that knowledge is vital.
But a GM, that’s a different animal. There is a thing about not watching a player, but looking at a statline, and imagining what that player’s strengths and weakness are just by how often he chases pitches, swings out of the zone, how hard is the average contact, how patient is he, one statline can tell you so many things. Now, you need those coaches and ex-players to refine the things you recognize as strengths and improve weaknesses, they know more than you do as a GM, but you have a responsibility to give your manager every tool you can. You have a responsibility to your owner and fan base to build the best team you can. And a lot of that is recognizing decline. Maybe the HR/RBI don’t drop, but you have to know the first signs – the move from a 7% chase rate to a 10% chase rate, the slow, steady decline in BB/K ratios that aren’t drastic, just a bunch of different places that you don’t even have to watch film to see, its in the lines if you know how to look for it. Ex-players, they don’t. They just focus on hand placement, and wrists, and elbows, and swing paths, things I don’t fully understand, certainly not to their level, but they can’t be impartial in their evaluation. That’s the heart of the problem of the “back of the baseball card mentality.”
The White Sox saw something in Jose Abreu that told them their franchise cornerstone and former MVP was in decline. There is no way they can’t match 3/60 for a franchise cornerstone. But they saw it. It was right there in the lines. All of these advanced stats pointed to a slowing bat. Jeff Bagwell doesn’t believe in slowing bats.
That’s why Crane and Luhnow were Co-MVP’s in the Astros most successful run. Luhnow probably doesn’t know or understand baseball the way Jeff Bagwell does. I’m sure he didn’t even try. But Bagwell also doesn’t understand it the way Jeff Luhnow does. This franchise needs both guys, but they need them doing the right role. And that is the one thing that is on Crane.
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Steven, I don’t know what GM candidate is going to fully embrace having a Bagwell hanging around, reporting directly to the owner, unless of course the applicants name is Asmus.
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How are they doing this Dan?
Last night, with 2 guys getting a few hits. Everyone else took the night off.
I have to assume LaMonte Wade is with the club because he can extend an at bat and draw a walk regularly. But if we consider defensive prowess and base running ability too, then Loperfido seems to bring more to the table overall.
I hope Okert comes back. Sousa just is not a viable replacement.
Still at 72.2 innings for Imai. Joe must have clear marching orders to keep him under 80. But still, we’re going to be stuck with 18 million a year for two more years regardless. I hoping he really wants to go home. Having him hanging out in the pen through 2028 sure can’t be a healthy solution.
Not much to comment about right now.
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I was frustrated watching them pitch around Yordan last night. I could have sworn the umpire was primed to call some of those pitches that were way out of the zone strikes and his body language was showing disappointment, but to his credit he didn’t screw Yordan. It was great to see him get that mistake later in the game and put it into the rf seats. I’ve been surprised teams have been so willing to pitch to Caminero, who hit another walkoff HR last night, but so careful with our guy. Maybe it’s because the A’s only care when they’re playing us.
Working to keep Imai under a limit to prevent clauses from vesting in his is an interesting problem. He gets an extra $1M for reaching each of 80, 90, or 100 innings pitched. Artificially keeping those from vesting will hurt our club’s credibility with future free agents, but it also improves our chances to win the division.
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