Astros’ 2026: How are they doing this?

If a stranger from the future had told you that the Astros were going on the road to face the Phillies, who had been one of the hottest teams in the majors for about the last 6 weeks and would win two of three, you might have thought – that is interesting, but not totally crazy.

If he told you the Astros would be starting Hayden Wesneski, Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier (against Zach Wheeler) and they lost the game Brown started but still won 2, you might be intrigued.

If he told you all-everything DH Yordan Alvarez would go 2 for 13 in those 3 games (and the 2 hits were in the loss) you might wonder how they won 2 of 3.

If he told you they were having to move Bennett Sousa (who had been bombed) into the leveraged inning circle of trust, you would continue to doubt they could do it.

Etc….I could go on.

The three-game series just completed was just the latest in a series of positive things happening out of thin air for the local club.

Consider this:

• The Astros are three games over .500 (75-72) while being outscored by 40 runs on the season (662-702)
• Per a system called the Pythagorean W-L, they should have a 70-77 record based on that gap in runs scored
• The Astros are only 37-38 at home. That is a crappy 20^th in the majors for a home record and 11 out of 15 in the American League.
• The Astros starting pitchers have a 4.93 ERA for the season – 14 out of 15 in the AL.
• The Astros starting pitcher with the most wins is Peter Lambert with 8 – but his last win is exactly 2 months ago.
• The Astros’ starting pitcher with the second-most wins is Spencer Arrighetti, with 7 – though he was traded away at the end of July.
• The Astros’ starting pitcher with the third-most wins is Tatsuya Imai, with 6 – but he was dropped from the starting rotation around the same time Arrighetti was traded away.
• The Astros may have the worst hitting OF in baseball history (oh wait – maybe that is the 2013 Astros). Cam Smith (.219 BA) “leads” a crew of the lost who have taken turns rotating through. Taylor Trammell (.208 BA), Daulton Varsho (.187 BA), Lamonte Wade Jr. (209 BA), Jake Meyers (.213 BA), Joey Loperfido (.216 BA), Zach Dezenzo (.213 BA), Brice Matthews (.197 BA), Zach Cole (.157 BA), Lucas Spence (.162 BA), Nelson Velasquez (.100 BA), and Jorge Barosa (.000 BA). Dustin Harris (.226 BA) must be wondering what he did wrong to get dropped.

My momma told me that starting pitching is critical to a team’s success. Momma, you were a liar.

So, what is driving this team to have what is estimated to be (at the moment) a 95.5% chance of making the playoffs?

• They are 13-25 in blowout games (5+ runs or a margin of 5+ runs). Sounds counterintuitive, but it means they were outscored by at least 60 runs in blowout games, which kind of skews the run margin over not that many games.
• They are fourth in the AL in runs scored (tied with tonight’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays).
• Josh Hader is 25 for 25 in save opportunities.
• Bryan Abreu, who was Godawful in his first 22 games (7.91 ERA), has been excellent in his last 38 games with a 1.40 ERA (4 wins, 5 saves, 9 Holds).
• Steven Okert (unfortunately on the IL) has been excellent in that sixth or seventh inning role.
• Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena were a Batman and Robin dynamic duo (until they weren’t) for a big chunk of the season.
• The Astros hitters have been taking turns being a hero even when their overall numbers suck. Cam Smith has been on a recent power surge, including three homers in the last three games. Yainer Diaz has been stealthily rising. Jose Altuve has a small resurgence at the bat to try and get us to ignore his glove. Isaac Paredes has been steady Eddie and hopefully teaching others to be so patient. Christian Walker exasperates and then he does something good.
• Despite the overall numbers for starting pitchers, a few of them have been doing well. Lambert continues to pitch solidly, but with no winning luck. Hayden Wesneski and Cristian Javier have decided that maybe Astro pitchers can recover from surgery and help the team. Hunter Brown is really good (except for his Framber-ish meltdowns).
• Despite my gripes about him, Manager Joe Espada is somehow getting a winning effort out of a team that sometimes looks overmatched. He has been making lemon meringue pie out of lemon Pledge for most of the season and has a great attitude about it, even though most of us think he is a lame duck.

So, hang on, my Astro brothers and sisters. This team has done more with less most of the season. They just have to keep it up a little longer.