Astros’ 2026: Thoughts on the home stretch

Folks know that I am kind of a bullet point writer as far as any writing “style” I have. Today will be a bullet point bonanza of thoughts about the last 18 games of the season.

• What might have been….Certainly, the Astros could not have clinched the division this weekend, but they missed a golden chance to make the task of catching them much more difficult. Just a modicum of offense would have won both Saturday and Sunday’s games against the Diamondbacks, but it never appeared as they lost 4-3 in ten innings followed by losing 3-2 in regulation. This could have allowed the team to stretch out to a 4-game lead, which, due to the tiebreaker being in the Astros’ favor, would have made the climb very difficult for the Rangers to make up 5 games.
• The offense has been very offensive….In the last 12 games the Astros have been averaging 3.5 runs a game and that includes 8 games of 3runs or less in that run. They did manage to go 7-5 in that stretch, but they really need the offense to step up and make life easier for the pitching staff.
• One positive…..Speaking of the pitching staff, the Astros’ starting pitching has been a little more consistent lately. Looking back we see:
  • Peter Lambert – 7 innings – 3 runs (and one of them should have been unearned after a muff by Nelson Velasquez)Ethan Pecko – 4.1 innings – 1 runCristian Javier – 5 innings – 1 runHunter Brown – 6 innings – 2 runsHayden Wesneski – 7 innings – 0 runsRonel Blanco – 4 innings – 0 runsLambert – 4.2 innings – 2 runs
  • Pecko – 5 innings – 2 ER

Yes, they did not pitch as many innings as we would wish in a number of those starts, but they are limiting the damage and in some cases doing a very good job when they are in the game.

• What scares me – With Steven Okert out (hopefully only a couple weeks) the bullpen is thin, especially with the work load of others in the bullpen. Few things are  more psychologically debilitating than blown leads by the ‘pen. Can Joe Espada continue to wring out solid bullpen performance under the current circumstances?
• We need a hero (or two) – The team has relied on Yordan Alvarez heavily this season. He and Jeremy Pena were the engine that drove the offense for 2/3 of the season. Pena has hit the skids badly lately and Yordan has not looked the same (even with his homer Sunday). Someone(s) need to get hot for this team. Jose Altuve has had his moments lately and of course Isaac Paredes has made some pitchers pay for putting Yordan on base.  They really could use a hot streak from Christian Walker, who (don’t look Ethel!) has numbers very similar to last season, when we were dying to get rid of him. His better start in 2026 disguised some of that. I would say we need Yainer Diaz to step up more, but he is not playing every day. Dare I say they need Carlos Correa back?
• The Carlos conundrum – Depending on who you listen to – Correa may be back in a week or two or three. The team could use his bat back in the lineup, but there are two questions here:
  • Will he actually hit that well after missing 5 months of the season?
  • Will he take away ABs from Paredes, who is one of the better hitters on the club?

Correa has said he is not looking to take away ABs at DH from Yordan. He also has been working out at 3^rd base exclusively we hear. Maybe Paredes can take some ABs from Walker at first, a few from Altuve at 2^nd base, and a few from Yordan at DH with Yordan getting more play in left field.

• What’s left – we are going to look at the Rangers and the Astros – if you want to look at the Mariners – that is up to you. (Records were heading into Sunday’s game)

Astros

• Three at Philadelphia (80-63 – second in NL East)
  • Three at Tampa Bay (85-58 – first in AL East)
  • Three at home against KC (64-80 – fifth in AL Central)
  • Three at home against Atlanta (85-58 – first in NL East)
  • Two at Seattle (66-77 – third in AL West)
  • Four at wherever the A’s play these days (57-86 – fourth in AL West)

Rangers

• Three at Seattle (66-77 – third in AL West)
  • Three at Arizona (76-68 – second in NL West)
  • Three at home against Boston (79-65 – third in AL East)
  • Three at home against Toronto (72-72 – fourth in AL East)
  • Three at home against NY Mets (65-78 – fifth in NL East)
  • Three at Minnesota (68-74 – third in AL Central)

Not that it means much in this odd season, but the Rangers appear to have an easier row to hoe with the remaining schedule. The Astros have 6 at home and 12 on the road. The Rangers are split 9 and 9. The Astros play the first place Rays and Braves and the very good 2^nd place Phillies. The third place Red Sox and the second place Diamondbacks are the only teams above the .500 mark facing the Rangers.

I have no idea how the Astros will do. They have surprised me (good and bad) throughout this season. But they need to play better than they did the last couple of games if they want to finish on top.

What are your thoughts?