Astros’ 2026: Thoughts on the home stretch

Folks know that I am kind of a bullet point writer as far as any writing “style” I have. Today will be a bullet point bonanza of thoughts about the last 18 games of the season.

  • What might have been….Certainly, the Astros could not have clinched the division this weekend, but they missed a golden chance to make the task of catching them much more difficult. Just a modicum of offense would have won both Saturday and Sunday’s games against the Diamondbacks, but it never appeared as they lost 4-3 in ten innings followed by losing 3-2 in regulation. This could have allowed the team to stretch out to a 4-game lead, which, due to the tiebreaker being in the Astros’ favor, would have made the climb very difficult for the Rangers to make up 5 games.
  • The offense has been very offensive….In the last 12 games the Astros have been averaging 3.5 runs a game and that includes 8 games of 3runs or less in that run. They did manage to go 7-5 in that stretch, but they really need the offense to step up and make life easier for the pitching staff.
  • One positive…..Speaking of the pitching staff, the Astros’ starting pitching has been a little more consistent lately. Looking back we see:
    • Pecko – 5 innings – 2 ER

Yes, they did not pitch as many innings as we would wish in a number of those starts, but they are limiting the damage and in some cases doing a very good job when they are in the game.

  • What scares me – With Steven Okert out (hopefully only a couple weeks) the bullpen is thin, especially with the work load of others in the bullpen. Few things are  more psychologically debilitating than blown leads by the ‘pen. Can Joe Espada continue to wring out solid bullpen performance under the current circumstances?
  • We need a hero (or two) – The team has relied on Yordan Alvarez heavily this season. He and Jeremy Pena were the engine that drove the offense for 2/3 of the season. Pena has hit the skids badly lately and Yordan has not looked the same (even with his homer Sunday). Someone(s) need to get hot for this team. Jose Altuve has had his moments lately and of course Isaac Paredes has made some pitchers pay for putting Yordan on base.  They really could use a hot streak from Christian Walker, who (don’t look Ethel!) has numbers very similar to last season, when we were dying to get rid of him. His better start in 2026 disguised some of that. I would say we need Yainer Diaz to step up more, but he is not playing every day. Dare I say they need Carlos Correa back?
  • The Carlos conundrum – Depending on who you listen to – Correa may be back in a week or two or three. The team could use his bat back in the lineup, but there are two questions here:
    • Will he actually hit that well after missing 5 months of the season?
    • Will he take away ABs from Paredes, who is one of the better hitters on the club?

Correa has said he is not looking to take away ABs at DH from Yordan. He also has been working out at 3rd base exclusively we hear. Maybe Paredes can take some ABs from Walker at first, a few from Altuve at 2nd base, and a few from Yordan at DH with Yordan getting more play in left field.

  • What’s left – we are going to look at the Rangers and the Astros – if you want to look at the Mariners – that is up to you. (Records were heading into Sunday’s game)

Astros

  • Three at Philadelphia (80-63 – second in NL East)
    • Three at Tampa Bay (85-58 – first in AL East)
    • Three at home against KC (64-80 – fifth in AL Central)
    • Three at home against Atlanta (85-58 – first in NL East)
    • Two at Seattle (66-77 – third in AL West)
    • Four at wherever the A’s play these days (57-86 – fourth in AL West)

Rangers

  • Three at Seattle (66-77 – third in AL West)
    • Three at Arizona (76-68 – second in NL West)
    • Three at home against Boston (79-65 – third in AL East)
    • Three at home against Toronto (72-72 – fourth in AL East)
    • Three at home against NY Mets (65-78 – fifth in NL East)
    • Three at Minnesota (68-74 – third in AL Central)

Not that it means much in this odd season, but the Rangers appear to have an easier row to hoe with the remaining schedule. The Astros have 6 at home and 12 on the road. The Rangers are split 9 and 9. The Astros play the first place Rays and Braves and the very good 2nd place Phillies. The third place Red Sox and the second place Diamondbacks are the only teams above the .500 mark facing the Rangers.

I have no idea how the Astros will do. They have surprised me (good and bad) throughout this season. But they need to play better than they did the last couple of games if they want to finish on top.

What are your thoughts?

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30 responses to “Astros’ 2026: Thoughts on the home stretch”

  1. It is hard to cheer really. This entire year has been such a letdown.

    The team can go on a 8-2 run just as easy as it can go on a 3-7 run. No offense from the outfielders, Pena is back to his swing gate self of old, Yordan is stressing under carrying the team and the triple crown chase, and the pitching staff is, as I wrote earlier in the season, in tatters, still. I feel that even if they do get into the playoffs, it will be for only one series.

    I still am a dyed in the wool fan, but my confidence is shattered.

    Go Astros!!

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  2. I know it’s been a holiday weekend back in the States, but I made brief game posts on Sunday and Monday and nobody showed up. Are we all getting a bit lethargic? I admit, I just want this season to be over. I want to see what our organization does during the coming Winter of discontent. Do we get a whole new FO and GM, not a Bagwell? Is it possible to rebuild an entire new outfield? Can we put Correa or Paredes at first and unload Walker? Varsho has to go. Does Cam remain an untouchable? I know I know, I’m getting ahead of myself. We’re in first place with a big series starting against the Phils tonight. I’ll try to be quiet.

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    • The only scenario to move Walker without eating all of his salary is to find a trade partner who wants to exchange a similarly disappointing contract. I can’t think of any scenario where Varsho would accept a contract offer that I’d want the Astros to pay him. At the same time, he probably won’t find any great offers from other teams and Crane may succumb to sunk cost fallacy here. Was Cam ever an untouchable? I feel like on another team with different coaching he could become an All Star. Maybe in Houston with different coaching he still can. He’s one of my favorite players to follow game to game, but his production does not warrant such a status.

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  3. Good points Devin. It illustrates the challenges ahead for the Astros in 2027. Can the Astros justify keeping Paredes for 13 million plus if they are stuck with Walker and his 20 million?

    Varsho is another declining, poor hitting outfielder. A .712 lifetime OPS. He’ll go to the wall for you, but he can’t throw, and signing him even for 3 or 4 million in 2027 just continues our offensive ineptness in the outfield.

    I think in just his second season, traded to Houston as the shiniest piece of the Tucker deal, Cam was pretty much untouchable as long as Dana was around. And I think most of us believe we did not help Cam by putting him on the ML roster to start 2025. I’d hate to see him go and reverse course with another club. My guess is that he’ll be with the Astros, or at least in the organization come 2027.

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    • Well Varsho went to the wall last night and came up empty. If the runners had a better read on it we lose that game last night. Guy is here for his glove, so I notice every catchable ball he doesn’t get to. Tough spot for him – he has power, he has demonstrated that his whole career, but he can’t hit, something else he has demonstrated his entire career.

      I do not see a world where the Astros move on from Cam. I see a world where legit competition is brought in and he has to win his job back next year. I don’t see one where the Astros don’t take a chance that the young, still minimum wage outfielder breaks out. If he is still doing this next year – when he becomes arby eligible (assuming the CBA hasn’t abolished that), and he starts costing real money, well the Astros might try something else.

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      • Yeah, he did not back to the wall to make that play. In fact, the ball basically hit the base of the wall. He’d probably tell you he should have caught it. And we got help a couple of times by Phillie baserunners last night.

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  4. And how about Pena? Talk about disappointment. Maybe he can turn it around but as of the last couple of months he’s no better than our inept outfield. A lot depends on the off season, potential lockout. I’ve taken off my shades because the future does not look so bright.

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  5. Good morning. Interesting game last night.

    We did not walk anyone.

    Astros pitchers lead the league with 86 HBP. I think one of the guys noted last night that a third of those plunks have come on an 0-2 count. Is that possible?

    Our big guy looks gassed. Our little guy is really erratic, both at the plate and at second base. Jose seems to be sliding around on the grass out there quite a bit. Those two were 0-10 last night.

    We got nine hits the bottom half of the order.

    The pen bent but got the essential outs.

    Cam hit his 18th, a no doubter. He also ran right by Tony P. and was safe at the plate on a close play. With Yordan coming up and just one out, that was another young decision by Cam.

    Fan Graphs still have the Astros as an 80.5 % favorite to win the division. BR has them at 89%. Those 80 plus percent odds just don’t feel very comforting. The Rangers looked alive last night.

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    • In high school, it was pretty much mandated on an 0-2 count we’d throw a breaking pitch out of the zone unless we were trying to get tricky. In college, our coach’s philosophy was that 0-2 meant fastball up and in, off the plate. Sometimes a guy would shake to a changeup or something out of the zone and he’d yell, “what are you trying to do, trick him?” That’s more in line with the Brent Strom philosophy. I think the HBP on 0-2 is because they’re trying so hard to keep the hitter’s honest and not wanting to leave it over the plate. I have mixed feelings on it.

      The Ranger’s schedule looks easier to me. This is partially because we end with SEA and the A’s who seem to play against us like it’s their World Series.

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      • Devin, so often that 0-2 pitch is way down and in, hitting guys on the foot. It’s a non-competitive pitch that is made worse when the hitter, already in a hole, ends up with the free pass. With pitch counts being so important these days, maybe wasting pitches is counterproductive. I’d rather see a guy throw his best pitch, obviously not down the middle of the plate, but competitive. If the guy at the plate gets a hit, then you salute him.

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      • dave – I agree with you. I really want to see certain guy throw fewer pitches and if they’re going to waste one it better have a real purpose instead of being non-competitive.

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  6. Thoughts

    • Considering the Phillies had their worst starter going – the Astros had to take the opener last night and they clung to it while trying to give it away late
    • The next two games will be extremely tough from a pitching standpoint. Yes, we have Hunter tonight, but Sanchez is one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Thursday we have the dreaded TBD against Wheeler, who is not quite as good as Sanchez, but better than any TBD we have.
    • The Astros needed some heroes down the lineup on a night when the top 4 were 2 for 18 with no runs scored and a single RBI. Walker stepped up with the big 3 run homer, Varsho had 3 hits including a clutch homer, Cam hit a solo shot and Yainer had a couple hits and a run scored.
    • Wesneski again managed to get through 6 innings in only 82 pitches. He was good until that last inning where he gave up 3 runs and gave the Phillies hope.
    • Pena gets a gold star for his diving stab that helped Blubaugh out of a big jam in the 7th – ending up in a DP.
    • Sousa had a big situational K (where they pinch hit a righty against him – when it is lefttys that are killing him right now)
    • Hader showed he was human and gave up his first run in 21 appearances (July 20th), but luckily he had a 2 run lead.
    • The Rangers have an 0-4 pitcher vs the Marlins with an 0-1 pitcher in a very critical game (so we are not the only ones with starting pitching challenges).

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  7. Did Joe’s overuse of King cause him to be broken beyond repair? What do the GM’s have against bringing back Santa? At this point, I think I’d rather see Van Wey, Roa or Munoz than King.

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  8. Was it all just happenstance in the third inning last night, or was it at least partially a discombobulated defense that did not seem to fully have their heads in the game?

    Regardless, it was forgettable. And unfortunately, Hunter Brown actually looked pretty good on the mound, but he lost his composure out there a bit when baseballs kept finding holes and he forgot to go where he was supposed to go on a couple of plays. And he got overly demonstrative too.

    Being up 4 zip against a very good pitcher and then giving it all back was a damn shame. And we got exposed last night. King should not be on the mound, but what’s the option? You can only use Blaubaugh so much, but what’s the option? And then we’re losing an arm by keeping Imai on the roster.

    I didn’t even realize the Rangers had lost a day game up in Seattle so that the NFL could have the city to itself last night. We’re still up two games. Will the Rangers continue to cooperate? Today sure looks like a loss for the Astros on paper, but who knows?

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  9. Thoughts

    • The offense did a great job getting that 4-0 lead and then after it was tied – pushing it out to 6-4
    • But poor defense, unlucky soft hits and loss of composure seemed to hurt them bad and then King and Blubaugh (the poster boys for overuse) got blasted
    • Yes, the Rangers lost, but how long can we ride that pony?
    • Today is Javier against Wheeler. Should be advantage Phillies, though Javier was very good last time out. Did Brent Strom whisper something in his ear.
    • I don’t understand why they have King on the roster if he can’t get anyone out anymore. I don’t understand why they have Imai on the roster if they are not going to use him. Bring somebody up – why don’t you.
    • And how many abandoned OFs can we recycle through here?

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  11. The Astros with a tremendous series win considering the pitching matchup today. Javier was channeling some of his 2022 WS no-hit goodness (just a notch below that) and the bullpen slammed the door. Now c’mon Rangers – lose again….

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  12. That was an excellent baseball game. As I call it, a tidy one. The Astros have always been pretty good at shaking off a bad loss. And that was a very bad loss Wednesday night. Once again though, I thought winning the series would be improbable.

    El Reptil has gone 11 innings in his last two starts, giving up 2 runs and just 4 hits. And only 1 walk today. He had guys swinging at stuff out of the zone.

    A couple of months ago, I was hoping Cam might end the season with 20 homers and a .700 OPS. Looks like he might just do more. A few days ago I was lamenting his play.

    Abreu has not looked so comfortable on the mound all year. I was thinking he’d have the 9th inning after a ten pitch 8th to save Hader for the 10th. Cam took that out of the equation.

    This team is actually taking some pressure off Yordan. They are winning games without his help. He still has time to shake off his untimely slump.

    Since I’m regularly picking on Sousa, which is totally unfair as he tries to be Okert’s replacement, he deserves a nod for covering the 7th so well today.

    And here I am now just finding out that deGrom pitched a great six innings today but the Ranger pen gave it all back in the seventh.

    Astros lead by 3 games again. There is nothing like a 162 game baseball season.

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  13. Thoughts

    Great game by Javier for the second game in a row. If he is back to what he used to be – this is a huge game changer for this staff.

    I wish we could bottle this version of Cam Smith – they needed a hero and he was it today. Walk, and two hits including the game winner

    Bryan Abreu throws 10 strikes and only 1 foul ball kept him from 3 Ks in 9 pitches. He is as dominant as the best version of himself

    Hader came back from giving up a run last time and easily retired the side

    Trammell who has been scrabbling had a big run scoring double and Walker hustled all the way to bring home that run

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