The beginning of the Astros’ season has been a schizophrenic’s dream…
- Heading into Spring Training (ST), the Astros were the consensus favorite to win the AL West and among the favorites to win the AL and possibly the whole enchilada.
- A couple of days into ST, it was revealed that Justin Verlander had a small elbow issue that delayed his ability to be ready for ST and the season. Simultaneously, J.P. France had a sore elbow that was going to slow his readiness for the season. Along with not knowing when/if Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. would return, this made the fandom doubt their rotation’s readiness for a repeat AL West title.
- The team performed well during spring training, and people were optimistic heading into the last week of ST.
- But…..then Jose Urquidy was injured in a late ST game, and it was announced that both he and Verlander would start the season on the IL. This made the fans feel uneasy.
- The team came out on opening day strong taking an early 4-0 lead in the second inning against the Yanks. Seven innings later they were leaving the field with their tails between their legs with a 5-4 loss. This was followed by three more tough losses to the Yankees and a bit of panic from the ‘Stros fans.
- They won two out of three from the Blue Jays, including a totally dominant no-hitter from Ronel Blanco, and this made everyone calm down a bit.
- The Rangers then pounded the Astros the first two games of the series in Arlington. Despair. They turned it around for two strong wins to even the series. Joy.
- They blow a 3-0 lead to the Royals in the opener of a road series and watch KC walk it off in extra innings. The next day, Framber Valdez, who was coming off a great start was replaced before the game and eventually put on the IL. The Astros pitchers responded by giving up 11, 13, and 12 runs in the next three games – all losses. Fandom is in free fall.
- Ronel Blanco pitches tough again, and the Astros win it late with a big rally. Everyone is thinking, well, if Javier pitches like he normally does on Sunday, Verlander returns soon, and Hunter Brown or J.P. France figures things out….maybe they can string things together and be the team they should be.
And that has been how this rollercoaster season has gone so far, though the valleys have been longer and deeper than the hills. Can the Astros dig out of the hole they’ve dug to this point? Sure. Can they dig this hole a lot deeper than they have? Sure.
That’s why they play all 162 games, but it is a lot more fun when the team starts on top than when it starts off trailing.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
43 responses to “Early 2024: Dazed and confused Astros’ fandom”
Dare I ask for two wins from the Braves? If somehow Arrighetti, Brown and France can pitch well enough to help us get two, then I’ll be very happily surprised. We’ll see what the rollercoaster brings us come tomorrow!
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I think you’re right! And so do I.
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I missed seeing today’s game. Just my luck.
Box score looks good except for – well, you know. Looked great for Altuve, of course. This run is fun to watch.
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Yainer Diaz looks to be struggling a bit with his new responsibilities and full time role. He does indeed need to get better at framing. Sometimes he jerks the glove out towards the incoming pitch, like he’s late getting to it, rather than making a smooth move to the pitch and receiving it more seamlessly. That will fool the ump out of calling a strike. He needs a lot of repetition with all of his pitchers, something he did not get in 2023.
And unfortunately, he’s not going to throw 30% of base stealers out this year (as he did last year) until his pitchers give him a chance. Maybe it’s just that there have been so many guys on base. But did our pitching coaches spend much time on holding runners during ST?
I don’t really see him driving the ball consistently yet either. And he’s still having trouble getting big hits with guys on base. But don’t think I’m being too hard on him. He does have a 139 OPS+ in spite of all. And he’s hitting .302 I think. But most telling about what we’ll see from him going forward is that 5/9 BB/K ratio. If he keeps that up, he’d might be our rightful cleanup hitter someday.
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Funny you mentioned Yainer’s pitch framing – while we were watching the game yesterday I actually replayed and slow mo’d Caratini’s pitch framing and was telling my wife this is what you don’t want to do, as she sat there bored to death having to be my audience of 1. He was immediately taking the glove over to the edge and then receiving it with a jerk, and I thought, that is not fooling an umpire (unless its Angel Hernandez). I think it’s a weakness in both our catchers.
That said, after watching years of Maldonado, it sure is great not having a pitchers slot in the batting order though.
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You know Steven, right now I think both Victor and Yainer are trying to figure out where all these pitches are going. Repetition will certainly help. In the meantime, our catchers position has become an offensive force. and south of Chicago, Maldy is 2 for 29 to date.
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Fun game yesterday. Javier and Blanco have a degree of pressure on them right now to be the “stoppers” of the rotation, but so far so good. You get two well pitched games in a row like that it can give a little life to the next 3 starters. The first thing I want to see from each –
I want to see Arrighetti try and not command 5 pitches, just pick your best 3 and play them off each other. I don’t care if you have more pitches than the catcher has fingers if you can’t put half of them where you want. The first 20 pitches are going to tell the whole story – if 6 or more of them are uncompetitive pitches and he is behind in the count to all 3 of those first batters, it’s going to be long day.
I want to see Brown’s first fastball be 96+. Have a short memory, remember what you got you here, but mostly I want to be alleviated of the concern that he is the next guy on his way to the IL.
France – don’t nibble as much. I know your stuff is “just OK,” and that you can be got if you give too much to the zone, but get some early strikes, and make guys earn their way. The biggest difference I see is pitches that were just catching black last year seem to be just missing this year – and it’s causing him to be behind to more hitters and have to give in some or walk them.
We should start an Abreu watch. This guy is toast. Soft grounder that did not even challenge the first baseman – playing on the grass – with runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs. A journeyman minor leaguer throws three fastballs right by him without him even making contact. He got badly fooled on that grounder to third. Right now, Singleton is just giving better, more competitive at bats, and that’s bad because big Jon has had some really bad at bats.
Who knew this time last year the current rotation would be those 5. Thank goodness there is some depth to try and survive the absence of 5 starters that could easily form it’s own very competitive rotation, but JV and Framber maybe don’t need to rush, maybe just hurry up a little. It sounds like Framber is going to be throwing a simulated game on Tuesday before heading out for a rehab start. No announcement yet but I expect JV to pitch on Saturday.
When Framber is back, who gets the “demotion” to the pen? At this point, I can’t see taking a guy with 3 QS to open the season and moving him to the pen, even if Blanco was the “emergency” guy that barely made the roster. He is 2-0 and the Astros are 3-0 in his starts. So, Brown or France? Brown seems to be struggling more. Maybe a few weeks of pitching one inning and just being concerned with your best 2 pitches will help his confidence.
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Lots of good points Steven on the three. The team desperately needs them to be at least functional – to cover half the game and not lose the game in the first one to three innings.
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Thoughts
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I feel safe saying I’ve been a bigger supporter of Singleton than most, but it feels like the moment is bigger than him too often. That’s not a reason to give at bats to Abreu over him in many circumstances though.
Regarding Loperfido, I tried to watch the highlights of his 2024 HR and they seemed to be coming off pitches in the 81 – 89mph range and primarily down. The strike zone has shifted up and umpires are calling pitches at the top and above the zone at a rate I’ve never seen in my life. I’d like to see him cut down on his K’s and do some damage on the high pitches before we seriously talk about promoting him. If you didn’t have to hit pitches above the belt then Brett Wallace and Preston Tucker could have been All Stars for us.
Given our pitching matchups if the Astros can take 1/3 from the Braves I’d consider it progress. We need to focus on beating the teams we’re supposed to beat and not giving ground when we play the teams who are legitimate contenders. It’s a long season.
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I don’t Devin, I have long been a fan of guys that don’t chase. I wrote a scathing anti-Abreu post (one of many lol) and stated at the end that if you gave Jon Singleton consistent at bats, 400 PA’s, that he could produce the same .235 avg, 15 HR line as Abreu but do it with a .340+ OBP, making him the better option. Dan insisted I was smoking something if I thought Singleton could out produce Abreu.
Singleton is out of place as a bench player. You can’t use him to pinch run. You can’t use him as a defensive replacement. He plays 1 position, probably at or below league average. And he has proven he can’t pinch hit, and I believe it’s because he is a rhythm guy.
He also has a sub .200 career average, even when given consistent playing time, so giving him the majority of starts right now is dangerous for Espada. I personally would do it, because I think he is better than he has ever been – at 32 he has a chance to finally give a little something before riding off into the sunset, and while he will still be a below average hitter, he will have a little pop, walk more, strike out less, and hit at least as well as the current incumbent. But the pop flys, they are going to drive you crazy.
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And I’ll add that while Singleton has a 33% career whiff rate, quit an offensive number, that is bolstered by his age 23 season, which is long gone. Since he returned to the majors at 30 he is at 23%, a smidgen high but fully acceptable number.
The last time he had a starting job in a professional organization for an entire year he did have it up at 27%. Not good. But he also drew well over 100 walks that same year, with 24 dingers. But he also hit .219.
The bottom line though is Loperfido should be the one to get that chance, he is 24 with more upside. Singleton is only a stop gap option if the Astros think Loperfido needs a few more months.
Likely though, we are going to watch Abreu – and he will get better, it’s just not fun getting there.
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Steven – are you sure that I did not say that Singelton was smoking something?
Yes, I confess I was wrong and that Singleton would out-produce Abreu right now. Of course, that almost feels like saying that Hank Conger would out-produce Martin Maldonado.
I think the team is going to have to make a decision that is painful to Jim Crane’s pocketbook – but again – it’s not like you have to go add a $10-15 Million bat to take Abreu’s place. You could replace him at major league minimum with Loperfido.
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One thing I don’t quite understand about the Framber issue: Why didn’t he have an MRI? Isn’t that automatic protocol when a guy has any kind of an elbow issue?
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I don’t know enough about how all that works. Can a team make a player get an MRI?
I imagine that right now Framber, and generations of Valdez’s after, know this is the absolute worst timing for season ending surgery. The difference is pitching for another season to prove your worth and only getting a season to prove you are healthy, and can easily turn a 9 figure contract into a bad or prove it deal.
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Good job by Arrighetti tonight. He kept his team in the game even as his defense let him down. Maybe the bats will wake up and win this winnable game.
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The thing about these Astros is that you never know which team you’re going to see. Good Astros or Bad Astros. Fifth inning in this one and I’m still not sure…… ;-)
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Now I know. $95,000,000, huh? smfh…….
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Nothing shocking happened last night. We got another great effort from a much maligned pitching staff. Our shortstop made an error at a very bad time. Our first baseman couldn’t bail him out. Our bats went silent again. And of course the big acquisition has continued to fail miserably. He’s supposed to miss bats. That’s not happening.
Hader has pitched in 9 games already. That leads the league. He’s not a bulldog though. His career max is 61 regular season games.
Montero threw more pitches last night than he ever has as an Astro. Is that wise, at a time when it looks like the guy is finally getting his game back?
The error was certainly on Pena, but Abreu has to come off the bag and knock that ball down. His lack of defensive mobility actually might be what gets him to the bench sooner than his .082 BA. It’s not all that easy to put up a -0.4 dWAR so quickly.
Back to Hader. He’s one guy that should be fixable. He really needs to be put into the routine that he’s been good at. Like it or not, Hader is going to have to be handled carefully. He’s a bit of a snow flake. And if he can’t close either, then maybe is time for Bagwell to take some heat. What acquisition has he gotten right?
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I apparently, being 250 miles from Atlanta, live to close. So the games are blacked out for me.
If I saw it I would probably disagree with a 4IP, 87 pitch appearance as a good start, but when you expect worse things to happen, I guess it’s a step forward. It might have been his last start until another injury happens anyway. I was thinking the Astros might call up someone for a few days, but all the guys on the 40 man that are at AAA are not eligible for recall, so maybe Spencer hangs out in Atlanta for a few days and takes in a little more being around the guys until JV is activated.
I never really watched much of Hader before he was an Astro. Watching him I don’t know what all the hoopla is about. He doesn’t seem overpowering. Of course I didn’t see last night either but the box score left a little to be desired. All I can say about Bagwell, Jackson and Biggio supporting giving Hader 19M a year for 5 is why you don’t litter your front office or have an advisory council of former players, they are always partial towards the players. That is how you end up with a 60M first baseman that is both among the worst hitters and defenders at his position on the planet.
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Steven – I saw Hader’s ninth inning live, but then re-looked at Gameday pitch tracker to kind of confirm what I saw.
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I don’t usually pay much attention to the SB nations, sportskeedas or FanNations of the world, just fluff pieces. But I appreciate the “sunken cost” fallacy.
You got to know when to fold em: Jose Abreu, Joey Loperfido and the sunk cost fallacy (msn.com)
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Yeah, Steven – it is a weird situation. If Abreu got hurt – you might curse paying him almost $20 MM for nothing, but you would move on. Think paying Verlander $66 MM for six innings between 2020 and 2021.
But this is worse than him getting hurt, because you feel “obligated” to keep rolling him out. But if you released him, you could move on. Loperfido might not be quite ready. He might strike out even more at the major league level. But could he be this bad. I don’t think so.
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Early in the season I wondered if someone switched Abreu’s bats with Pena’s and no one noticed as it looked like Abreu was swinging a short one (32″?) while Pena was swinging a longer one (34″ probably). Abreu keeps swinging at pitches in places he can’t physically reach. After watching the ninth inning debacle last night I’m wondering if the back issue from last year has recurred or if something new is wrong. He probably gifted the Braves a run by not bothering to stretch out receiving the relay from Pena on a potential inning ending double play.
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The white whale is spotted by Ahab
Astros To Promote Forrest Whitley – MLB Trade Rumors
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He may head back down when JV is activated
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He’s done absolutely nothing to deserve his shot.
2024: 4 innings, 4 hits, 3 homers.
Lifetime minor league ERA: 5.17.
The Astro organization is losing credibility and there are plenty of smiles out there.
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The other day I was posting about how some questionable decisions with the roster have put Brown in a place where he didn’t have options for anyone to call up without someone going on the 60 day IL. I forgot about Whitley because I didn’t think he was a viable option.
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My take –
The Astros took on 14.6M salary and an astounding 62.5M in deferred money to have Zack Greinke for 1 season and some change. Whomever made that decision should be unemployed.
They gave Lance McCullers 81.5M for so far, 2 months.
They paid Jose Abreu 59.5M for a guy that is just old.
They gave Rafael Montero 34.9M off one year.
They gave Michael Brantley 12M, with Jeff Bagwell assuring everyone, he will be ready for opening day.
They gave Hader 95M for a role that we might not have needed.
Those contracts add up to 360M of money that simply did not need to be spent or was completely wasted. That is before the aforementioned 66M to JV for 2 years that he pitched 6 innings of.
All of that since 2020, almost 300M in just 4 years of poor decisions. In years past these decisions would have sunk this franchise. They have been very fortunate that Bregman and Altuve signed fairly team friendly deals, but they have been really lucky that Valdez, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy, Pena, Alvarez, Tucker, McCormick came along. Without the minor league system churning out help (and winning that 2022 title) this franchise is sunk, because since 2020ish they wouldn’t know a good decision if it smacked them in the face, maybe except the Alvarez contract, someone should get a gold star for that one.
And that is how you get to Whitley.
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Luhnow had to go. Click did not. The fish stinks from the head down.
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And a shout out to our friends at crawfishboxes
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/4/16/24131809/astros-crawfish-boil-april-16-2024
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So tonight we have Singleton taking up space on the vicinity of 1b. Oh joy.
Well, it was a fun run whie it lasted……
BTW, FJA
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Brown gave them 6 excellent innings. Great for his confidence. He should not have been sent out for the 7th.
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The Astros aren’t just losing. They are getting blown out in their losses.
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I am starting to wonder after all whether Mr Toothpick had something more to him than we thought – man management capability. Would he have let the team make so many blunders?
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Nothing will ever convince me that Baker is a good in-game manager. But he is a people’s person that the players enjoyed playing for, and that probably has it’s own merit.
Espada so far not showing that he is up for the job doesn’t mean Baker was good. Probably neither of them are the right guy, but for Espada it’s still early and he didn’t put an entire championship caliber rotation on the IL at the same time.
We know France and Brown are better than we’ve seen so far. We’ve seen them be better. But in reality, they and Blair Henley and Spencer Arrighetti are not supposed to be making starts. The rotation is supposed to be JV-Framber-Javier-Garcia-Urquidy with Brown in the BP and France on the bus with options. They were lucky they got what they got from France and Brown last year as it kept them above water. Blanco is the guy keeping them above this year, if you think the sky isn’t fallling yet. Without Blanco the Astros could realistically be 4-15 or 3-16.
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Gosh darn, my posts are getting taken away to Never Never land again.
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Test
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I did get to watch and I’ll say this –
Brown was good. Should have ended his night after 6. He was 79 pitches in but he had the exact kind of night that was an excellent rebound from the last start and should have been able to walk to the showers knowing he did his job. He got sent out for a 7th and now its in his head for the next start. That’s not hindsight, I realized it the moment I saw him on the mound to start the 7th.
Dubin was also over extended and over exposed, and should have been out after 1.1 innings. He had done his job. Dubin actually pitched really well, and now he goes home with a stat line that looks like he should be back at AAA. His change up is really good, and he commands it really well.
Whitley should not have been warming up in a 2-0 game. As frustrating as the Astros offense has been they were clearly still in that game. I know he is in town for all of 2 games before he is on his way back to Sugar Land but that doesn’t mean he has to pitch. That was a spot for a slightly higher leverage arm.
Espada did not make the right calls on bullpen usage last night. But Espada also can’t make guys swing at better pitches. Sometimes these guys got to go out and execute their way to a win. We swept em last year in Atlanta (I was there!) but Atlanta is a really good team and its showing.
I try not to participate in the sky is falling commentary. It’s a long season, and these are some really good baseball players. But right now our really good baseball players are not playing really good and that is putting too much burden on names of depth pieces that are causing that potential W to turn into a L. We can’t let this dig too big of a hole as we approach the 10 games under .500 mark.
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Yeah, when Hunter walked off after the sixth, I said great effort. I assumed Dubin was on his way in to start the 7th. When Dubin finished the 8th, I said great effort. Something to build on. I assumed he was done. Wrong again.
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And keep this mind – say we go 3-3 in the next 6 – we will be 9-16. Only two teams in the wild card era in baseball have started 9-16 in their first 25 and made the playoffs. Two more started 10-15 and that’s it. History is not on our side with what’s starting to become more than just a slow start.
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A lot of younger, more athletic, quality teams out there these days. They’re having fun playing the game. We’re not there. But in the West, with a stabilized pitching staff, winning 7 or 8 of 10 puts the Astros back in the mix. But people need to hit too. That’s not too far fetched. 2024 would be a patch job though. And as much as Crane has done to build the organization, there does not seem to be a cohesive plan going forward. One might contend that he’s hastened the demise of what he allowed to get built.
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Who’s left in Sugar Land to be brought up?
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