It’s time for some half-full, half-empty, or fully-empty looks at the Astros’ season to date.
The GOOD—Even with an awful start to their season, where they are losing two times for every one time they win, the Astros are only 3 1/2 games behind the so-so 9-9 Texas Rangers. Last year, they were 3 1/2 games back on April 18 and 19 and as much as 6 1/2 games back in late June.
The BAD – It is a good thing they are in the AL West. They would be farther behind in any other division baseball – ranging from 5-1/2 games back of the Dodgers and the Brewers to 7 games back of the Guardindians.
The VERY UGLY – The Astros have leveraged bad play from each part of their team – Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Offense – to this bad start of the season. It has been equal opportunity suckage to this point.
The GOOD – Ronel Blanco (2-0, 0.86 ERA and a no-hitter) has been a revelation in the starting rotation. Cristian Javier (2-0, 1.54 ERA) looks like the Invisiball hurler we all loved back in 2022.
The BAD – Hunter Brown looked like Justin Verlander 2.0 in his cup of coffee with the club in 2022 (2-0, 0.89 ERA). He is looking a lot more like Philip Humber 2.0 so far in an awful start to 2024 (0-2, 16.43 ERA, 3.913 WHIP). Note – this was written before Hunter’s nice Tuesday start that almost got him into single-digits ERA.
The VERY UGLY—The three current tail-end starters, Brown, J.P. France, and Spencer Arrighetti, have been horrid (though Arrighetti was almost passable in his second start). The three have combined for an 0-7 record with a 9.75 ERA. Special recognition goes to Blair Henley and his 135.00 ERA in his 1/3 of an inning start.
The GOOD – Rafael Montero has looked a lot more like his 2022 self so far in 2024 (0-0, 2.00 ERA). Seth Martinez (1-0, 2.45 ERA) and Tayler Scott (0-1, 1.93 ERA) have both had to carry much bigger loads than ever would have been expected and have been good.
The BAD – Josh Hader has a 0-2 record with 1 save, a 9.39 ERA, and a 1.696 WHIP, which does not match his $19 million price tag.
The VERY UGLY – The fans expected the Astros to be nails at the back end of the bullpen. Instead, it has been more like an Iron Maiden of torture. The three biggies at the back, Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu, have combined for a 1-4 record with 1 save and an 8.44 ERA. Yuck!
The GOOD – Jose Altuve (even after an 0-fer Tuesday night) has had a great start to the season with a .382 BA/ .453 OBP/ 1.138 OPS slash. Jeremy Pena showed up with a new swing this spring and it has shown at the plate as he has hit for a .351 BA/ .385 OBP/ .871 OPS slash.
The BAD – Jose Abreu has the fans longing for the great days of Martin Maldonado being in the lineup as he has put up blindfolded pinata swinging stats – .082 BA/ .148 OBP/ .250 OPS with 1 RBI in 49 ABs.
The VERY UGLY—Though the Astros are first or second in the AL in BA, OBP, and OPS, they are only eighth in runs scored per game. While they score 8 runs per game in their 6 wins, they only score 2.69 runs in their 13 losses.
Bottomline…the Astros have gotten to this point as a team, failing in almost every section of the team. As a team is the only way they will be able to dig out of this hole.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
28 responses to “Astros 2024 – The Good, The Bad and The Very Ugly”
Referencing a comment Steven made to the last entry,
“And keep this mind – say we go 3-3 in the next 6 – we will be 9-16. Only two teams in the wild card era in baseball have started 9-16 in their first 25 and made the playoffs. Two more started 10-15 and that’s it. History is not on our side with what’s starting to become more than just a slow start.”
You’re absolutely right, but the silver lining is that we play in the AL West where the Rangers lead us by 3.5 games right now and we can catch the other teams. I don’t think a wild card is realistic given we spotted the league about 10 losses thus far so the focus has to remain on winning the West. Going .500 over the coming stretch will cause us to lose ground, but playing against the likes of WAS, ChiCubs, COL, DET, LAA, OAK, and SEA before the end of May gives us an opportunity to turn things around. Mixed in there are series against NYY, CLE, and MIL, but beating the teams we should beat on paper could put us back on track. Not making up some or all of those 7 games under .500 before June is probably going to mean we’re this year’s Padres.
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The AL East looks like a bloodbath. Someone could win 88 games over there and finish 4th and not make the playoffs.
I try not to pay attention to other teams. Last year we didn’t play well enough to win a division most years, but we backed into it. But I think it’s a fair water mark to say that 90 wins might win this division again, to get to 90 wins we are going to need to morph into a .600 (.596 to be exact) team soon. The longer we wait, the more that number creeps up. If a point comes that we have to play .625 ball the rest of the way to win the division we are probably toast, unless the Rangers continue to be unimpressive. I can see a world where 88 wins does it, but I don’t see the Rangers and Mariners both can be counted on to finish under 88.
After watching the Rangers play, I think unimpressive is a good word. But I know their fan base is looking at us and saying the same thing; boys, this division is winnable.
To me, this whole thing hinges on every starting pitcher we have on the IL right now making their mark and then staying upright, including McCullers (I know, eek).
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Some stats are made to be broken.
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Good news I would think
Justin Verlander to make season debut against Nationals (mlb.com)
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I have a criticism of ths article. Jose Abreu does NOT belong in the category of “Ugly”. If anybody ever deserved the title “Very Ugly” it would be the homeless looking bum from Chicago.
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Can’t find an Astros stream and am stuck listening to these Braves announcers. What a bunch of losers. But the Space City streams are awful!
But I hate ALL things Atlanta,so am just slightly biased…..
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Woeful?
Turrible?
Lifeless?
Sad-sack?
Old?
I don’t know how they look because, well, ya know. But I do know how they read and it isn’t good.
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Trust me. You don’t want to see this. They don’t look any better than they sound.
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This baseball team (stretching the phrase because they don’t act like a team) is just plain awful.
Abreu blows another routine play at 1b that costs us another run. This guy stinks no matter WHERE on the field he is! Pressly gives up another 2 run lead. Caratini seemingly can’t catch a cold.
Now Singleton batting for the aging fence post and he strikes out, too.
Is this really a comedy I tuned into accidentaly?
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Just realized the Astros played today. Looked at the box score and realized that Jeremy Pena was today’s substitute for Jason Castro and Martin Maldonado in the lineup. Looks like he killed four rallies.
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You’re not missing anything. They are so hard to watch. They cannot seem to put all the pieces together. I’m really not sure they even have enough quality pieces.
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What a train wreck this team is! We just witnessed yet another complete and total collapse in front of the home fans. Unlike in 2013, when we had a comparably horrible start, there are some really good ballplayers wearing orange this year [not including anyone who plays first base]. But since they neither play well together nor step up and be at their best when the team really need them to – the result is a historically (and PAINFULLY) bad Astros team.
Where does the ‘badness’ begin? It sure seems to start at the head. Brown seems clueless. Espada seems totally incompetent. At this rate, not only are the playoffs an impossible dream, I dont’ think we are even good enough to play the role of spoiler.
Our ‘Stros won 51 games in 2013. If we beat that in 2023, it won’t be by much.
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I read somewhere that the Astros deleted 3.000 of their Twitter followers. Are they pulling an Oakland A’s move? What the heck is going on in Houston?
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Looking around I can’t find that Gary. Maybe fans are mocking Joe Espada for his looking at the back of the baseball card comment on Jose Abreu?
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Ryan Pressly is another issue in a long list of issues.
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The trio of starting pitchers that gave up 24 runs in 7.2 innings at KC regrouped and gave up just 6 runs in 15 innings against a very difficult Atlanta line up. We will get better pitching regularly going forward. And as long as Pressly is healthy, he’ll settle in too.
At some point, our hitters will hit regularly too. It would help if the committee of experts in charge of decision making do something about first base. Again, what’s worse about Abreu not hitting is his inability to play his position.
I’m still holding on to my June 1 deadline for declaring the Astros dead or alive.
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I have my concerns about Pressly. Abreu and Hader I think are fine, it’s just some short sample. There isn’t a pattern of a declining K rate, increased exit velocity, like, there isn’t really things other than in the few innings they have pitched, it hasn’t gone their way. Pressly though, has a pattern over the last two years. Every year, he is striking out less people, getting less swing and misses, decreased velocity, increased exit velocity against, its a pattern. It’s the same style pattern you see in Jose Abreu swing rates, he is swinging at more pitches out of the zone, he has decreasing contact rates, you can see his age in the patterns.
The optimist in me thinks it’s very possible that while Ryan Pressly will never be 2021’s Ryan Pressly again, that he can at least still give us a year where he is a lot like last year, and that’s a guy that isn’t as good but still won’t step on a landmine every time. Lower velocity, lower spin rate, they are workable but he has way less runway to make a mistake with though.
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A lot of times at the beginning of the season if someone is slumping I say come back 6-8 weeks in and lets see where we are that. Not sure I can do that with Abreu. He looks washed up.
It reminds me of what happened with Lou Gehrig. He was still trying to play prior to the disease that bears his name being diagnosed. He knew it was over when he made a very normal fielding play at first base and the guys were making a big deal about it.
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Interestingly in Gehrig’s last season he played in 8 games and slashed .143 BA/ .273 OBP/ .416 with 0 HRs and 1 RBI in 28 ABs.
Abreu in 51 ABs is slashing (trashing?) .078 BA/ .158 OBP/ .256 OPS with 0 HRs and 1 RBI.
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Lately, our team has been playing Dazed and Confused. Is there a Communication Breakdown between players and coaches? How Many More Times will this team be a Heartbreaker? Will we have a Celebration Day when the World Series ends this year? Right now it seems like it’s Over The Hills And Far Away.
In the days of my youth, I watched woeful Astro teams that were outmanned
And now I’ve reached that age
I’ve tried to cheer our purebred steeds the best I can
No matter how ranked high, they find ways to frustrate their fans
Good teams, bad teams, you know I’ve had my share
When Luhnow and Click were let go for this Brown-led clan
But I still don’t seem to care
‘13, we fell so far with a gang as weak as could be
It only took a couple of years ’til an ALCS streak
We swore that we would be alright and make postseason again
But when that injury bug came near, can our title we defend, oh
Good teams, bad teams, you know I’ve had my share
When Luhnow and Click were let go for this Brown-led clan
But I still don’t seem to care
Good teams, bad teams, you know I’ve had my share
When Luhnow and Click were let go for this Brown-led clan
But I still don’t seem to care
I know what it means to be on cortisone
I sure do wish we could win at home
I don’t care how opponents play
We wanna beat you each and every day
I can feel upbeat within my heart
Realize, sweet Chippies, we ain’t ever gonna part
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Impressive AstroNut.
I think we are hung up on What Is and What Should Be
And they’re buying a Stairway to Sugar Land
And it won’t be until late May when they will be Going to California
Maybe we should tell Abreu to Ramble On
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So success is right around the corner
José Abreu talks to Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell amid slump (mlb.com)
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This article doesn’t exactly fill me with optimism. I think you’re right about Abreu. He’s done. Stick a fork in him and call the kid up from SL.
At some point, you have to cut your losses and move forward. We’re well past that point with the $54 million dud IMO.
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Jose Abreu is like watching Morbius. You paid to go see it, you paid 20 bucks for your popcorn and soda, but 30 minutes into the 144 minute movie you realize it’s just terrible. My choice is get up and leave or sit there because I paid for it. Sitting there is a waste of nearly 2 more hours of my time when I could be doing something else.
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A day off and a road trip to try and fix the blues.
I didn’t realize until I read Charlie Pulillo’s last piece in sportsmap but the Astros are 11-31 in their last 42 home games. This is getting embarrassingly bad in front of the home crowd. I really think he and Josh are the best two analysts I see out there when it comes to Astros baseball.
We’ve said our piece about Abreu. I think it’s pretty much a unified message. But let’s be real, the expectations were not through the roof. At this point, even if he mixed 3 2-4s with a HR in there and was hitting in the lower .200s this team might have 1 more win. It’s never one spot in the batting order that’s the issue. Seasons are built on pitching. If they keep trotting Abreu out hoping that he catches fire it won’t matter that much if starters want to give up, as Dave pointed out, 24 runs in 7 innings in a 3 game set. This thing is always about pitching.
Everyone thought the back end of the bullpen and the rotation were fine, and the middle relief would be the problem. So far, the exact opposite. Pressly, Hader, and Abreu have led this team to having the worst ERA in baseball after the 7th inning. The starters have been shell shocked and decided some games in the 1st inning.
I think Bryan Abreu and Hader will be fine. They are really just in small sample. Abreu at times seems to be throwing a different mix of offspeed and fastballs as previous years, and I’ve found myself channeling Major League II in my head where the catcher just says “when the tough get going, the going get tough.” Wait that wasn’t it, it was “oh forget the signs, just bring it here Ricky.” When you can hit 98 and spot it, just bring it here Ricky.
3/5ths of their 2022 WS winning rotation is unavailable. One of the available 2 makes his first start tonight. Another one might be back in 7-10 days. Bregman is bound to catch fire, Tucker will get the little better he is missing, McCormick will finally give us some moments, this offense will start putting up 5 spots more consistent soon. And this rotation is closer to adding 2 more guys back that aren’t going to give up 6-9 runs in the 1st inning. Hader will throw 15 scoreless innings in a row and all will be well.
Pressly and Jose Abreu are toast. But they can’t sink us by themselves.
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That 11-31 record (which I assume includes the playoffs) is almost unfathomable for a team that has flaws, but has a lot of talent.
You are right – pitching is the key, but man if they had a bit more timely hitting throughout the lineup – this could be a 9-11 or 10-10 team at this point. And while not great – that would be an easier situation to see them climb back up from.
Chas reminds me of Pena from last year – cannot hit the slider. The only difference is that he is not swinging at the slider way out of the strike zone – but even when it is right down the middle he isn’t hitting it.
I have this great fear that Verlander will come back and struggle, Framber will come back and get hurt again and this team will sink into a quagmire. Or they could have JV, Ronel and Cristian lead them to a sweep of the Nats and sudden reinvigoration of the team.
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Dan, I sure hope that’s what they are thinking.
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11-31 is flat out scary. The club might need an intervention.
If the boys don’t show any life on this trip, some things will have to be done. Assuming Abreu does not find the fountain of youth, first base will have to be addressed first.
Can’t write Pressly off yet. He was one guy that did his job down the stretch and in the post season last year. I don’t think he suddenly lost everything over the winter. I believe the change in job description has totally screwed him up. No excuses though. He needs to figure it out. He needs to give us what Neris did last year. That’s all.
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