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Astros 2024: Is this the end of greatness?

Back in better days, this would be the post where we would point out that between June 4 and June 19 of last season, the Astros went 3-10, so don’t sweat their 4-9 start. Last year, they still righted the ship, won the AL West, went to the ALCS, and came within one home win of going to the World Series and likely taking home their second consecutive championship.

But the doubts about the organization and whether the wonderful, sustained run the team has thrown out there can continue have been swirling for some time. Amid that June collapse, this was our “sky is falling” post.

The Astros overcame those problems in 2023. They may overcome their even more desperate problems in 2024. Or this may really be the end of their almost unprecedented run of greatness.

What is bringing the team down?

Dead Money

  • Hopefully, the Astros will get some contributions from the following, but there are no guarantees who will return from the IL. Right now, the Astros have about $68 MM worth of resources on the IL, led by Justin Verlander (who will hopefully be back within a week), Framber Valdez and Jose Urquidy (who will hopefully be back and not under the knife), Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia (who will hopefully be back after meeting the knife) and Kendall Graveman who will likely never pitch for them again.
  • They owe Zack Greinke, who last pitched for them in 2021, $12.5 million this season and the next two, also.

Wounded Money

  • The $19.5 million they are paying Jose Abreu for 2024 and then again in 2025 is beginning to look like dead money. And it could be if they end up cutting him instead of waiting for a resurgence that appears impossible at this time.

Blank Bullets in Reserve

  • It is probably unfair to complain about starting pitching depth when a potential starting five of Verlander, Valdez, Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia is on the IL, but it is a bit disturbing to witness Blair Henley and Spencer Arrighetti get roasted in their major league debuts. Is the train of cheap internal starting pitching – Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Cristian Javier, J.P. France, and Hunter Brown – pulling into the station for the last time?
  • Jon Singleton and Grae Kessinger are the best the minor league system can muster right now to add to the bench?  

Decision-Making at the Top

A number of decisions made over the last couple of seasons make one wonder about the decision-making at the top of the Astros chain. (And in full confession, some of these decisions were backed up by the masses at the time.)

  • Why really, was James Click given an offer he could not accept to continue as the Astros GM moments after winning the 2022 Championship?
  • Did they do due diligence in turning over every rock in the pursuit of a new GM?
  • Did they do due diligence in turning over every rock in the pursuit of a new manager?
  • Did they do due diligence in looking closely at Jose Abreu’s declining power numbers before signing him?
  • Why did they overpay for Rafael Montero and did they need to give him three years?
  • How did they decide to fill four holes in the bullpen with one very good reliever?

Again, the team’s sustainability was built on some flagstones that become a bit slippery with success and require a businessman’s tough will to lead with difficult decisions.

Five critical items: Astros’ sustainability – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)

Is this the end of their run or just a road bump?

 

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48 responses to “Astros 2024: Is this the end of greatness?”

  1. It’s like you are doing the glass half full/glass half empty guy again.

    This team has been fortunate – their farm system in the last 5 years has given them Pena, McCormick, Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, Garcia, Diaz, Urquidy, B. Abreu, Brown, and France. Some better than others but all impactful. Not many teams can make a list like that – especially ones that have supposedly spent years “rated” higher on the prospects list. Not to mention, before that 5 year period we had our system produce Altuve, Correa, Springer, McCullers, Bregman, etc. It’s been an almost award worthy run. We have not had to bring in much from the outside, but even the ones from the outside were charmed decisions like JV, Morton, Cole, etc. The Braves have been the closest facsimile to us.

    That is not the current state of the farm system. We don’t even have a pitcher in the minor leagues right now that we trust to go out and get 15 outs without getting janked.

    So it appears that the Bagwell advised Crane solution is to start acting like the Mets and think you can build the team with expensive free agents sans just using them as the sprinkles on the cupcake of internally developed stars. In defense of teams like the Mets I don’t know what you are supposed to do when you stop developing stars. Jose Abreu is awful. Josh Hader is not but you can debate two things – one you paid 19M, which is extremely impactful on any future negotiations with other players – for a guy that will get 3 outs and thats it. Don’t ask for a 4th, and second, that 19M, at least in the short term, caused us to sacrifice depth (though it’s debatable, its likely the Astros don’t spend that money unless it was on Hader).

    All those guys I listed as the 5 year window are young. They won’t all be here long term – some might leave via FA, some might just fall off and be out, and some will be here long term. But they won’t let the window close, they are too good (if you can keep the pitchers on the mound that is). It just won’t be as easy because when they come in and filled in around and for the previous 5 year crew it worked, right now we are asking people like Arrighetti to be Framber, and he just is not. Neither is Brown, neither is France.

    2022 seems a long time ago. Luis Garcia won 15 games, and we barely talk about it because the entire staff was nails. Urquidy even won 13. And neither hardly pitched the 2022 playoffs. If we had someone on pace to win 15 now, they might be the staff ace.

    2024 could be rough. This could end up a team that spends most of the year fighting to get back to .500 and in the playoff hunt. 2025 could be much better but it depends on the health of the rotation.

    In 2022, the Astros had a 58% Quality start percentage. In 2023, it was 43%, still above league average. So far this year its 32%, below league average. Now 2024 is too much of a small sample size to panic over, but when you look at what could happen in the next 2 weeks, when you are going to give starts to Brown, France, Arrighetti, Javier, and Blanco, we could easily win less than half of those and dig the hole deeper.

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  2. In 2008 when Tampa Bay made the World Series everyone talked about how Joe Maddon was a genius who made unconventional choices during the games that caused them to win the pennant. My opinion is the team had a lot of young talent that didn’t play like youngsters and actually performed when they needed it. Looking at Espada’s first 13 games, we’re getting burned by a couple veterans who are paid highly but not producing and some young arms that aren’t supposed to be on the roster. If those two groups can just play better and look the part of major leaguers we will be fine.

    Right now the Astros have blown 4 of 5 save opportunities and lost one extra inning game. Our record of 4-9 could therefore have been as good as 9-4 by just taking care of business in those games. It’s not going to get easier – one more in KC before hosting the Rangers for 3 and then the Braves for 3. If Espada can get through that stretch without the team spiraling we have a chance to make some ground back up over the rest of the month. 

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  3. As I wrote this morning, I’m looking to June 1 as an important date. If the team can stabilize by then, reaching .500 at that point, then I think there is a way forward. Las Vegas has not written us off yet. 

    But I also am concerned about a lack of cohesiveness from top to bottom. I don’t think Dana Brown makes all the decisions. I think the big ones get determined by the “Crane Advisory Group”. And if that’s the case, they are not very good at what they are doing. 

    Last year we had that 3-10 stretch but from what I recollect, we did not really have any holes in the bullpen and our starting pitching was not as bad off as it is today. Framber was our stopper in our first half of 2023. Right now we’re not hitting consistently either, but the lack of pitching is killing us with no real remedy in immediate sight. We’re certainly not going to find help in Sugar Land. And I don’t think we’re going to get any help outside either.

    So all we can do is hope that the guys we have right now can pitch better until Verlander gets back. And he’ll only be able to do so much. And dare we hope that Framber’s inflammation is just a three week problem? And Urquidy steps right in and helps in May? I just don’t know if everything can fall into place this time.  

     

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  4. I think it’s a bump in the road, but even if the “dynasty’ is over, 2 WS titles isn’t a bad run. Besides, you can be barely over .500 and still get a WC spot. The first half is practically meaningless.

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  6. I think this is a bump in the road that has given the team a flat tire.  Are the wheels falling off? Is the axle bent out of shape? This team needs a revival, but it’s not clear when it’s coming.

    I see a bad team losin’
    I see trouble makin’ plays
    I see replacement players struggling’
    I see bumpy roads today

    Don’t watch ‘Stros tonight
    Well, it’s best to close your eyes
    There’s a bad team on the rise

    I hear pitcher arms a-blowin’
    I know the end is comin’ soon
    I fear the IL’s overflowin’
    I hear the voice of rage and ruin

    Don’t watch ‘Stros tonight
    Well, it’s best to close your eyes
    There’s a bad team on the rise

    All wrong

    Hope you got your heads together
    Hope you are quite prepared to cry
    Looks like we’re not getting better
    Our guys have lost their batter’s eye

    Well, don’t watch ‘Stros tonight
    Well, it’s best to close your eyes
    There’s a bad team the rise

    Don’t watch ‘Stros tonight
    Well, it’s best to close your eyes
    There’s a bad team on the rise

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  8. Just tuned in, saw the score, and turned it rght back off again. Not gonna spend my time watching that garbage they’ve been producing.

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      • Bags was a great ballplayer and when he sits in with TK & Blummer, I very much enjoy hearing his POV. Good entertainment.

        But baseball is a business. If he’s the one who advised the J Abreu deal and/or the Montero deal and the letting go of the best part of our bullpen, then I’d say it’s time for Crane to let him him cool his heels in the lobby for a spell before he opens the office door.

        I just don’t see how any team can pull itself out of the depths when there are so many problems and absolutely none of them are being addressed at all.

        The A’s are putting it to the Rangers and as I watch this game ut of the corner of my eye, it appears Houston won’t be able to beat either team in the near future.

        In short, I’d say yes, the era of Astros greatness has reached its end.

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  9. Did Brown have a dead arm or is he hurt? A number of those runs were driven in on fastballs that didn’t reach the 90s. The Witt, Jr., HR came on a 1-0 curveball up and away. Given our infirmary is already full and we don’t seem to have any viable options in the minors I’m getting concerned.

    Having said that, the LOB and Gary Pettis killed us. Pettis held a runner at third on a play the outfielder conceded the run and threw into 2B. Earlier he held Singleton at 3rd on a hard single with 2 outs up the middle…which was reasonable given we were down 9 at the time. Then Altuve grounded out with the bases loaded. Later, Tucker struck out with the bases loaded. Bregman and Tucker both popped out with RISP. Singleton’s box doesn’t look awful, but he did strike out weakly with runners on as well. None of it came against overpowering pitching. 

    Montero nailed Perez with a pitch late in the game. Given the Royals were stealing bases with a 7 run lead it wouldn’t surprise me if it was intentional. 

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    • God bless you for watching what had to be a real ugly game so we didn’t have to. I have no problem wth Montero plunking him in this situation. That’s baseball.
      My problem with Montero is his performance and its lack of corelation with his salary.

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  10. Hoping we turn it around but if we’re out of it come the trade deadline I say it’s time to cut bait and trade anybody we can for some younger players with potential. Yes, I’m talking about anybody not named Altuve, Alvarez, Y Diaz, Pena, or Dubon, Not quite sure about the pitching staff but I’m sure everybody has an idea.It’s been a lot of fun but the old reality of the situation may be apparently setting in.

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  11. Wouldn’t surprise me (or displease me) to see Bregman as part of a deal to raise the pitching staff from the bottom of Iron Bottom Sound. Depending on what happens in the next 2 or 3 months…..

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    • Iron Bottom Sound pretty much describes the state of the Astros right now. A major defeat for the US Navy in WWII. But we rebounded. Maybe we will too.

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      • Sorry, Z. I must correct you.

        Iron Bottom Sound is that area surrounding Savo Island in the Solomon chain near Guadalcanal. It’s named such because of the dozens of ships and planes that sank there during the naval actions comprising the Battle of Guadalcanal during 1942–1943.

        The good guys won that one, my friend. At terrible expense.

        It’s not very deep there so ships could be raised from the bottom with some considerable effort and expense.

        But the way they played again tonight, I’m more and more convinced that nothing is going to raise the Houston ball club off the bottom of the AL West.

        Not in the foreseeable future anyway.

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      • I was talking about the battle of Savo island which occurred on August 9, 1942 at approximately 1:00AM. We lost 2 cruisers and 4 destroyers. While the Japanese task force did not continue down the slot which was a tactical victory, it was considered one of the worst defeats for the Navy in WWII. There were actually at least 4 battles in the area known as Iron Bottom Sound.

        in a brighter note the Astros finally won a game. Maybe the Phoenix will rise up. We shall see.

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    • 1OP, I’m going to try and hold out until June before I allow myself to come to that conclusion.

      I spent a lot of time here in the dark this morning on a post that went off to ghost post file! Maybe it was premature!

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  13. Reggie Jackson confirms that he, Bagwell and Biggio are all very active in personnel decisions that affect the club with Crane gathering their information along with that of Dana Brown, the coaching staff and manager. I don’t know how to post the video, but I’m sure someone will get it up. This is what has hastened the demise of our stunning run. 

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  14. Tired of his team losing, Hooks manager Dickie Thon was ejected in the seventh inning of last night’s game against Frisco. The Hooks then scored 4 runs in the eighth to finally win for the first time this season, despite their pitchers walking 10 batters.

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  17. I just realized, all of our top shelf, starting pitching are injured. Thus, the Astros are having to rely on the youngsters to pull the load. Obviously, they are not up to the task.

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    • You are correct, sir! It’s either an incredible run of bad luck for the team or maybe it’s something else. Just by playing the percentages, I suspect it’s something else.

      Hamstrings, oblique strains, spinal discomfort, etc. Makes my mind wonder about topics such as strength and conditionng training programs and that sort of thing.

      Yet I hear nobody else mention it.

      But that’s not my business, so….. ;-)

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  18. So how does Mr. October end up a big shot in the Astros organization anyway? I’m not aware of how that happened and the story behind it.

    Curious.

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    • Seems he left the Yankees and joined the Astro organization so that he could take part in baseball decisions. Those are roughly his own words. See above for the illuminating video provided by AstroNut. With Biggio, Bagwell, Jackson and Crane all actively involved in personnel decisions, I’m wondering how much say Dana Brown actually has. I don’t think we can hold this mess against him fully.

      Joey Loperfido had three homers and seven RBI’s last night. His early season numbers are off the chart. But he’s also got 21 strike outs in 12 games. I’d rather see more contact and gapped doubles. That will get him to Houston quicker.

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    • daveb –

      Thanks for checking in on me – I am getting better, though watching the Astros is enough to make people a lot sicker than I am.

      Sometimes when it comes to commenting I am in an odder situation than you good folks are. There are times when I hold back because I need some ammunition for writing the posts themselves. I don’t want to come across as repetitive when I do write posts, repeating things that I commented on the day before.

      On the other hand, right now the Astros themselves are repetitive. Except for Javier’s start, this has been about as bad a set of starts by our pitchers that I can remember, even going back to 2011-2013.

      Well I have an idea for a next post – I will give it a shot here soon.

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  20. Dan’s joke of the day – one of my friends was texting and asking why Bregman came and visited the clubhouse if he was too sick to plsy

    I said they paid him a bonus to come breathe on Abreu

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  21. Maybe I missed something important. I thought the idea of having a “designated hitter” was to have someone in the lineup who hits better than a pitcher.

    Jon Singleton doesn’t fit that description in even my wildest pipe dreams.

    What in God’s name is Espada smoking?

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    • McCormick and Bregman are out. His choices were Kessinger Caratini and Singleton. Kessinger is likely your backup everything except catcher which is Caratini. Putting either at DH would cause to lose the DH spot if they have to enter anywhere. It was the best option he had.

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      • Well, it worked out OK this time. No harm done. It’s just sad that we need to think that way only 2 weeks into the season, though.

        This roster is paper thin. And apparently very brittle.

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  23. I’m shaken to my core. I didn’t think it even possible that anyone could be dumber than Dusty f______ Baker.

    Now I have to reconsider that.

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  24. Quite a few smiling faces leaving the field today for a change. Got to say something positive when we get a rare opportunity.

    So far, Victor Caratini has been the best off season acquisition by whomever is making those decisions.

    Regardless of what happens going forward, we’ll still get to watch future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve work his way towards 3000. He’s just incredible.

    Ronel Blanco is my player of the game once again. He could have freaked out like everyone else lately after giving up those 2 early runs, but instead came back out and threw zeros the rest of the way. So huge for the pitching staff and the bats too. It was not a garbage time baseball game.

    Maybe these guys will hit in their home park this year on a regular basis.

    If we win tomorrow, we’ll lead The Lone Star Series. And we’ve got some rested arms too. 

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      • Well 1oldpro, maybe the aging process for me includes a bit of mellowing. But I sure do appreciate the pleasure these guys have provided over the past years and I’m realizing nothing continues forever. Thank you.

        One quick note: Dana Brown was quoted this morning on Loperfido, “He’ll be a nice utility piece for us”. Sounds like he’s taken the company line. 

        One day soon Loperfido will be playing everyday in Houston, and I’m not basing my opinion on his 10 homers over the past two weeks. 

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  25. Blanco has been a shining star every gm he’s pitched thus far. It is unfortunate his innings will be limited this season, and I have no idea of how the tm will manage his innings once the injured warriors return. It was awesome to see the lineup break out big in the 7th yesterday. Hopefully that is a prelude of better things to come. There is light at the end of the tunnel still me thinks.

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    • Andre, to keep those innings in a range close to the 132 the threw last year, he’ll be an invaluable addition to the pen at some point assuming we have a full group of functioning starters available.

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