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Astros’ thoughts on a day of mixed hopes

Yesterday was one of “those” days for Astros’ fandom.  We were all a bit upset when we heard Framber Valdez would be sitting out the start prior to the team announcing why? We were a bit confused when they said he would be replaced by Blair Henley, a pitcher who was not on the top prospects list and had not thrown particularly well the last couple of seasons. We were a bit more panicky when they announced that Framber was out due to an elbow problem. We were a bit optimistic that the team was propping up their young starter as they started the game with a two-run first. We were about to give up when young Henley gave up five runs while retiring only one batter and left the bases loaded.

This is usually the point when a long reliever, who might not have gotten enough warmup pitches, comes in and gives up a grand salami, and the Astros are dead in the water, down 9-2.

But no, it was not that kind of game at all. Seth Martinez got a key double play, which started 8-2/3 innings of scoreless relief by mostly the bottom of the bullpen.

Thoughts

  • I’m assuming they brought up Henley because his last start lined up with Framber’s last start, and he would slide seamlessly into the spot. Oops.
  • All Astro fans are uncomfortable with the latest elbow injury to Framber. After all, this means the potential 5 man rotation for the Astros of Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, and Framber Valdez are all hurt.  Verlander had a bit to say about the pandemic of pitcher injuries – What Justin Verlander blames for the ‘pandemic’ of MLB pitching injuries (msn.com)
  • Yes, the offense saved the team last night, but it was the bullpen that kept it within range of being saved. Seth Martinez – 3-2/3 innings of 1 hit scoreless pitching, Scott Tayler with 2 innings of 1 hit scoreless tossing, Brandon Bielak with 1 hit scoreless over 2 innings, and Bryan Abreu finishing it off with a 1 hit scoreless inning. It was tremendous and tremendously needed.
  • Is this the season that Yordan Alvarez pairs production with health for a crazy good season? His ABs continue to be Must See TV. YIE (Yes It’s Early) but he is on pace for 59 HRs and 132 RBIs even after starting off slowly the first few games (no homers, no RBIs the first six games of the season).
  • We know Verlander is maybe a couple starts away from rejoining the rotation, but what is the next step for filling Framber’s spot? In two starts, Spencer Arrighetti has a 2.16 ERA over 8.1 innings with 10 Ks, but he’s also walked 7 hitters. Brett Khouba has a 3.68 ERA over 7.1 innings and has done a little bit better with 4 walks, but is not missing too many bats with 4 Ks. Maybe they can stretch out Seth Martinez for a spot start or two. But if Framber is out long term…..
  • When everyone not named Dusty was looking at this season, they were certainly hoping to see the following slashes for our catchers – Yainer Diaz .316 BA/ .366 OBP/ .866 OPS and Victor Caratini .364 BA/ .364 OBP/ 1.000 OPS. FYI – MM only has 18 ABs for the White Sox and has posted a .111 BA/.158 OBP/ .325 OPS slash.  Just saying….
  • The offense needs to carry the team for a bit as the pitching staff figures things out / gets well. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and the catchers have all been hitting solidly or better. Alex Bregman has been showing signs of breaking out of his every-year early slump. Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon are below their norm but certainly have good track records. And then there is the elephant in the dugout.
  • OPS+ is a number that is a good comparison of hitters’ abilities normalized for the effects of ballparks. For a season, 100 is an average number, and the very best head up towards the 200 mark. Of the 209 major leaguers who have enough ABs to qualify, only four of them have a negative OPS+, and the man in last place is….. Jose Abreu, with a -33 OPS+. The man looks like me hacking away at this point.

The plus side at this point is that after falling 4-1/2 games behind the Rangers after Saturday’s game, the Astros could have folded their tents and crashed and burned in the series. But another excellent game on Sunday by Ronel Blanco and the bullpen, and then an excellent Monday game by the bullpen, and the offense pulled them within 2-1/2 games back. Can they weather the starting pitching storm that potentially losing Framber Valdez might bring them? Well, watching the Monday night comeback, we know this team is not in panic mode.

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40 responses to “Astros’ thoughts on a day of mixed hopes”

  1. Framber, at his best or not, is our innings eater. His absence creates a hole we don’t have a plug for. But somehow, if he’s gone for awhile, we’ll have to figure something out. I was asking about Clevinger last week. Would the Astros have signed him this week? He’ll be a bargain if he can keep the Sox in games.

    If we end up losing Framber, can we afford to give Abreu months to maybe come around? He’s worse than last year offensively. He’s slow to react defensively. His situation becomes more urgent if we lose our 200 inning guy.

    All that said, it was an excellent win last night. We need to keep those KC guys off the bases. They are a real pain. We need the best version of Reptil. 

      

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  4. Per Rome, Parker Muchinski will be joining the Astros in KC, replacing someone, not yet named, being placed on the IL.

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  6. It’s way past time to bring Joey up. DFA Singleton and find a way to 60 day IL Abreu. Am I the only one to see this? Alternatively, go get Belt.

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  8. Funny story – I’m at my kids little league game and I turn on mlb.tv on my phone. I see “Henley” in the box of the name, and I thought, is Hensley called up and batting? Wait, thats the pitcher. Is he pitching? I see the first pitch and I thought, that velocity looks about what David Hensley would have. Wait, Henley, what is this? I had to run to the news real quick to see what happened. This is unfortunate news for Framber and the Astros, and us fans.

    Henley might have thrown the only 1/3rd of the inning he will get. Bad news for his baseball-reference page. That’s there forever now. Good news for his pocket book, he was likely making less than 300 a day at AAA on a minor league salary, he got well over 4 grand for that one day of major league service. Good for him. Maybe he will get a second opportunity to get some work in and fix that permanent web page before either Verlander or Dubin gets his spot. For him and his family that’s a big boost financially for sure.

    It seems very likely the Mushinski call up is Framber to the IL.

    I don’t know why the Astros didn’t just start Martinez or Bielak.

    Done talking about Abreu. He will get better. But he looks really bad right now.

    If Yordan plays 145+ games I think he can be the AL MVP, especially since there isn’t a guy in the AL pitching like a Cy Young guy and hitting like a MVP at the same time. The Yankees have a pretty good chance at it having 2 of the top 4 hitters in the AL on the same squad. Seager will probably always be in the conversation. Never discount Trout if he plays 140 games though.

    We can really use 6 or 7 from Javier tonight. Otherwise, you might have to get an inning from someone used last night. If Javier gets got early and only goes 3 this BP could potentially have a rough series with Brown and France following.

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  9. New Batting order:

    Altuve

    Pena

    Alvarez

    Tucker

    Diaz

    Bregman

    McCormick

    Meyers

    Abreu/Singleton/ Caratini

    As mentioned on Sports map today there was the suggestion of moving Caratini/Diaz at 1st.

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  10. Well, my redneck entertainment center is back where she belongs (just in time to get my taxes done this week!) and I will be watching the game tonight. I hope the boys can start out with a W in KC.

    Rained like the proverbial cow pissing on a flat rock all night and most of the morning. So to add to all the other fun I’ve been having this week, I had Lake Erie in my kitchen and dining room when I went walking out there to brew coffee this morning. But we needed the rain.

    So I get to deal with that now, too. It’s always something…….

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  13. It’s tough not having a complete pitching staff. We’re not used to this. And we have no idea if Framber going to the 15 day is just a preliminary move while he gets further examined.

    This is where are start paying more attention to our GM. How well does he get us out of this mess and back on track? He’d have to pull off a Houdini act to find pitching at this point in April.

    It’s tough having an automatic out in the line up when too many of the other guys are having their own issues getting a hit with RISP.

    And giving up extra outs makes it all that much tougher. Javier did his job and deserved a better fate. 

    Then we wasted four hits by Yordan. That’s tough.

    Altuve and Yordan keep providing Bregman with regular RBI opportunities. He’s got to quit tinkering and hit. He’s costing himself a lot of money. He’s messing around with his swing every winter and he’s simply not ready when the real games start. I might try putting him in-between the two lefties. 

    Would be great to see Spencer throw strikes tonight and give us five solid innings. That’s pretty much what he’s got to do.

    Good to see Lops pick up another hit last night and walk three times. The OBP is up to .357 to go along with his 1.068 OPS. Much more balanced. I just hope he keeps producing, forcing a decision to be made if Abreu remains non -competitive. In the meantime, I’d make sure Caratini is working out with his first base glove. 

     

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  14. I don’t know how many times we are going to see early damage followed by innings of futility from this offense, but I figure they are out to show us.

    Personally, I would have left Javier out there at 90 pitches to work his jam. I get Espada’s desire to put what he thought was a better match up out there than corners, 1 out, a fly ball pitcher against a fly ball hitter, and you can’t argue his result, but I’m a believer in the bulldog of old, and not taking a game away from a starter until it’s not his anymore. A tied game, 90 pitches in, it’s still his.

    Wander Suero has not done anything in major league baseball to be a guy deciding a game. But that’s the guy we put out there to decide the game.

    If there was an argument for a 2 inning appearance from Hader last night was it. He was not used Monday, he only threw 11 pitches in the 9th, it was set up for him to go out and throw the 10th. When you got a runner on 2nd strikeout stuff would have matched up better. I get trying to make sure that 2 of the “big 3” is available for tomorrow, but you got to win today’s game first.

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    • I agree on Hader, but someone decided to spend 95 million on a pitcher that is a three out guy, unless maybe it’s October. Hopefully we’ll clicking along in August and he’ll be mowing guys down three at a time and we’ll have forgotten all about April.

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      • They had the Graveman injury and they let three guys who pitched high leverage innings for them head out the door. If they wanted Hader – fine, but they needed to bring in at least one more solid arm from outside.

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      • Dan yes, a few of us here would have opted for a rebuilding of the pen with multiple guys, without a 95 million five year commitment. But he is ours now, so we’re going to have to hope Brown gets things sorted out. I’m encouraged by Montero right now. Martinez too. And hopefully at some point soon we’ll have reinforcements join the battle.

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      • My general thought is Hader was brought here because the Astros know Pressly is becoming hittable. The idea is save the run, not save 2024. I think crimping on the dollars and not bringing back at least one of Stanek or Maton is going to hurt. Neris had probably priced himself out.

        Pressly and Abreu both need adjustments. Pressly needs to mix in less fastballs and maybe use his cutter more to setup the curve. I don’t know that the cutter and curve have enough velo difference, but the fastball is a declining pitch for him. Abreu just needs to sit dead red. Trying to approach an at bat the same way he did when he was 32 isn’t working because he can’t read the pitch the way he could at 32. It’s causing him to look silly against fastballs. I would rather watch him begin to struggle with offspeed stuff sitting red than watch him not be able to catch fastballs, the opponent know it, and the result is 3 singles and an .087 batting average after 11 games.

        My concern for the Astros is how their coaching staff responds to aging veterans. I don’t know alot about most of them, so it’s an unknown. But the performance so far of two aging veterans that still seem to have something left but neither seem to be able to contribute it has me concerned that they, as a group, don’t know how to focus strengths and limit weakness.

        Did we really use Singleton as a pinch hitter? Have they done zero homework on his career stats as a pinch hitter? What little bit of shining light you can find on him, and you have to look real hard but its there, but that little bit was never, not once in his career at any level, done as a pinch hitter. Since joining the Astros he is now 1 for 21 as a pinch hitter. Do they know how to use what they have?

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      • Serious questions Steven – from the outside looking in we don’t know with veterans whether the coach does not know what to tell a veteran or whether the veteran does not take coaching.

        I do think when you had a Brent Strom maybe there was a bit more gravitas and the players listened. On the other hand – the pitching coaches seemed to be getting a lot out of their pitchers all things considered. Even some of the guys who were struggling early out of the bullpen have had better outings lately.

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      • Steven, Abreu might have been thinking he’d the guy to take over the Pressly role at some point. That thought had crossed my mind. There were all sorts of ways to rebuild the pen this winter. But in fairness to Brown, I don’t think he had full autonomy in the process.

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      • I also assumed Bryan Abreu was the heir apparent. A cost controlled closer that would be in the top 5 of the business at his spot for 2 more seasons after this one would be a blessing to your ability to fill around him.

        On the flipside, he gets to still be the best setup man in the business for a few years, and knowing the 8th and 9th are both good at least half the time is a plus. Right now, its the 6th I’m worried about. Montero got two big outs last night, but that was last night. I don’t know what he brings tonight.

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    • I’m on the sick side this week – so I’m a bit grumpy, but I mentioned “Sparrighetti” – a few comments up OP. LOL

      I sure hope he can find the strike zone

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  17. Last night Sugarland won 12-4 on the road. They had 8 hits, 14 walks, two hit batsmen and 3 wild pitches in their at-bats. They also stole a base.

    AAA Little League baseball.

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  18. Regarding the pitching injuries, there is another article making the rounds which is pushing the idea that MLB changing the baseball is the cause. The short version is after Rawlings changed factories the MLB balls were either waxier or chalkier depending on who you talk to. MLB, of course, now owns Rawlings. As a result, pitchers started using sticky stuff which is now banned. Pitchers are making adjustments which is putting more strain on their arms and causing more injuries. I think Verlander’s theory about not pitching to contact is also legit. Basically, this is all Manfred’s fault for doctoring the balls and game in an effort to get more offense in shorter periods of time to attract the attention of people who struggle to make it through tik tok videos.

    I think organizationally we’ve decided to waive the white flag on Manfred’s extra innings games. It may come back to haunt us one year. Realistically, the hitters could just drive in a few runs and not make the bad managerial decisions matter. At the same time, I don’t want to see Hader pitching multiple inning games in April against a team that probably will only be a wild card contender if all the pieces fall into place.

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    • Wait, I struggle to get through tik tok videos without scrolling…….

      I think JV’s points were pretty spot on. Everyone feels like they need to throw 100 MPH to get there, and once they are there they think every pitch either has to be 100 MPH or have the spin rate of a neutron star. It’s just damaging to the arm.

      I’m less concerned with Hader’s inning count than pitch count. He threw 11 in the 9th. I would have put him out there for the 10th, even if that means he isn’t available today. If that pitch count was more like 20 or 22, no, I wouldn’t have sent him out for the 10th.

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  19. Here’s hoping that tonight’s menu in KC doesn’t include Arrighetti with meatballs.

    OK, Grandpa took the obvious line for a joke. Sue me. 😉

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  21. Well, that’s unfortunate. I look away for 15-20 minutes and the wheels fell off the manure wagon for the new kid. And now Bielak does what Bielak does and, quite frankly, it looks like a bad team playing badly.

    Perhaps I should say a group of individuals pretending to be a team playing bad baseball. That’s more accurate, IMO.

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  22. So I guess we just all but forfiet the game after 7 innings? Is this a new kind of baseball? I gotta say I don’t like it as much as real baseball.

    Heck, if they’re gonna quit, I am, too! I’ll find a western and see y’all tomorrow.

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  24. Losing has a real snowball effect, especially when our club does not have enough major league arms. It puts a whole lot of pressure on every other pitcher to throw zero’s every time they take the mound. And then it has the hitters squeezing their bats tighter and tighter. I don’t think I’ve said this for years, (unless I said it last year) but this club is in pretty serious trouble. I’m just not feeling any kind of cohesiveness, from management on down. I was troubled by the silent exchange between Bregman and Diaz when the third inning finally, mercifully ended with Yainer catching the pop up while bumping into Bregman. Maybe Bregman had called him off, because he sure gave Diaz the evil eye as they turned for the dugout. That’s not typical on field Astro behavior.

    It’s too early to count these guys out, but I’m thinking June 1 would be an important date to have this club back at .500. Too many question marks with the pitching staff right now to expect a 10 game win streak anytime soon. 

    With hindsight, I guess it might have been a nice idea to trade Bregman and Framber for a batch of young talent this past winter. Of course, to be fair, had it been up to me, we would have ended up with a young, talented Cincinnati third baseman serving an 80 game suspension for taking illegal substances. But maybe sending Alex and Framber would have sped up a mini rebuild or regrouping. Certainly we left too many holes in the pitching staff. We all saw that coming.

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  25. First time I’ve seen Arrighetti pitch. I am not impressed. I expect every starter to go out and throw 5-7 non-competitive pitches in a start. Arrighetti threw probably 18-20. When you are doing that you are going to find yourself in way too many hitters counts. Even his command on his competitive pitches was not there, instead of putting pitches an inch off the zone and tempting a hitter he was just missing by 4 inches, and while that might work at AA or AAA it won’t work here. His command makes life easy for the umpire too because he won’t miss many calls because of it.

    He is going to get one more start at least because of the schedule, so let’s hope some of those command issues were just nerves, and his second start goes better. His minor league numbers suggest this has been an issue for him though not a one off. It’s not about the walks, its about the quality of the non strike pitches. You can’t throw all strikes, or you will get demolished. You have to throw better non strikes that can either fool the hitter or the umpire. France had similar walk numbers coming up, but the first thing I noticed about JP was his ability to throw a quality non-strike, or even a good corner pitch. It’s not there 100% of the time for him but it’s there some.

    Nice job by Espada trying to hide Abreu all the way down at 8th, but it goes to show why so many statistics guys still continue to preach batting order doesn’t matter – the one guy with the most opportunities last night was the 8 hitter as Yainer and Chas kept getting on base, and Abreu lead the charge by leaving almost all of them on base. Maybe we can pencil him at 10th and the other team won’t notice when he doesn’t bat. I don’t know at this point.

    Once again, Singleton in as a pinch hitter, a role in which he is now 1-22 since joining this team. Sent him out there against a lefty too boot. And throwing in the towel in the 7th of a 6 run game might have been premature. Dubon and Singleton are no Altuve and Alvarez, and those two guys get on in a 6 run game it might change the entire outlook of how KC uses their BP which can change tomorrows game. Espada does not impress me either.

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