Luhnow’s blueprint must have lots of lines, x’s and scratch marks

Sure would like to get a look at Jeff Luhnow’s blueprint. Wonder if it’s in pristine condition or whether it looks more like Bo Porter‘s lineup card?

You have to figure that the Astros aren’t following the script that Jeff Luhnow wrote. Even the outline he and Porter brainstormed in spring training.

You have to imagine that Luhnow anticipated an improvement over the 107 losses in 2012. Not the team that is presently on pace for 108 losses.

And, with three recent Mexican League signings, more trades for prospects and the continued shuffling between Houston and Oklahoma City, you have to believe that the Astros are still feeling their way through this reconstruction.

Rather than a clean, straight line from bad to good, the Astros are gathering as much mud as possible to throw against the wall and hope a little of it sticks.  Not necessarily a bad thing, especially considering the attrition rate of prospects and pitchers in general. Consider John Ely and Alex White.

Half the 25-man and 40-man rosters are still filled by players who pre-date Luhnow. By the time the first game rolls around next April, this team will be lean Luhnow-heavy. Even the Jarred Cosarts and Jose Altuves who remain from the previous regime will have the Luhnow philosophical stamp on their games.

To be sure, there will be no sure things going into spring training. Yes, perhaps Altuve has a spot, but with his reasonable signing recently, some team could come along and sweep Luhnow off his feet. Especially when you consider that the free agent crop of second basemen will be slim.

So here’s a bit of a quiz to start your week.  You know who leads the team in home runs and strike outs, but do you know which player leads in:

  • Walks (53)?
  • Games played (117)?
  • Doubles (31)
  • Runs scored (50)?
  • Innings pitched (129)?
  • Highest K rate (pitchers with 45 IP minimum).
  • Lowest BB rate (same minimum).

And a few other questions for your consideration:

  • Despite their records which team would you rather have going into 2014: The Astros or the Angels?
  • If Mike Scioscia became available, should the Astros consider making a change at manager?
  • Some players suspended for the rest of the season due to PED use may come at a bargain this winter. Would you sign either Nelson Cruz or Jhonny Peralta? (Both are free agents.)

We all made predictions before that first pitch on April Fool’s night against the Rangers. If you’re like me, you’ve missed on a few of those. But one that I’m close on is this one regarding a “breakout season” for Jason Castro: “A .275 average with 15 home runs and 65 RBI would be a positive, but a successful season would mean Castro plays in 120+ games and improves his defense.”

He’ll hit the HR mark and get close to the average (.267) and RBI (47). Defensively, he’s fifth in the AL in CS% (24.2), but second in the league in passed balls (10). The Castro discussion continues.

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16 responses to “Luhnow’s blueprint must have lots of lines, x’s and scratch marks”

  1. Tough tough quiz – total guesses
    Walks – Pena??
    Games played – Altuve
    Doubles – Castro
    Runs scored – Altuve
    IP – Bedard
    Highest K Rate – Veras
    Lowest walk rate – Cosart

    I’d rather have the Astros going forward – the Angels have so many untradeable / huge contracts…that are not working out.
    No offense, Bo – but yes I would take Scioscia (though his intentional walk to Corporan today ahead of Matty D’s dinger did not look great.
    Fascinating question – would I take the cheaters at a discount. Probably not.

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  2. I don’t have the will power of DanP, I had to look. Wow, the amazing part is not those that make your stat leader list. It is the guys that are at the other end of the list. Again, I am not a fan of Bo, had rather seen Tony D get the job, BUT there is no reason to change for another year+. The yo yoing from OKC is not his fault, and lets see what he can do with a rather static lineup. Sign neither – because of age. Not old, but “the plan” has been to go young, so “Luhnow bought these britches, might as well let him wear them out.”

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    • For those of us that hope that Crane loses his shirt, this is the key. If Sir Snake abandons/sells out/lies to the fans, then maybe the blowback of poetic justice will wipe that oily smirk off his face once and for all.

      Be done with it already! Maybe just maybe all is not ruined. But as soon as Crane slithers around and asks taxpayers to fund AAA stadium deals — behind the phony premise of “funding future success” — it’ll be too late. Your fandom has been snookered.

      Be wary ALastros Nation. He’s on the prowl with wallets in his sights.

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      • From another recent article: “Astros games at the midway point of the season were averaging a 0.43 Nielsen rating, with an average audience of about 10,000 households. That’s down 66 percent from last year, which would be consistent with the drop from full carriage on FS Houston last year to CSN Houston in 2013.

        Sports Business Journal notes that the Astros’ 2013 rating is the lowest for any MLB team since 2008….”

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  4. Gonna try this without cheating – walks – Carter, Games – Altuve, doubles – Altuve, runs – Carter, IP – Harrell, K rate – Veras, walk rate – Lyles. Now I will go look it up!

    If I was a manager trying to win, I would rather have the Angels, if I was a general manager trying to build a team, probably the Astros. It’s not like the Angels system is stale though, but being stuck under Pujols, Hamilton, and crew as they spend the next few years killing your payroll flexibility while being just slightly above average will leave a mark.

    Stick with Porter until we give him a few lemons and see if he can make some lemonade. Mike S is just another guy that sticks with the veterans and plays by the book. The Astros need young, creative and a chance taker to find the next generation of contributors.

    I don’t expect Cruz or Peralta to come cheap despite their suspensions. I also wouldn’t sign any player linked to PED’s immediately after a suspension unless I was getting them on the cheap AND I had a spot for them. Cruz could start in LF next year and bat 4th for this team, but he is still likely to come in at 8-10 mil a year. So many question marks, does he play as well clean? Where is his confidence from both the scrutiny and lack of “supplements?” How does it reflect on our franchise for giving him this money? I can be swayed though so I don’t have to watch another year of Carter or JDM doing their bad news bears impression in LF. Oh, wait, thanks CSN and ComCast, I can’t watch the Astros.

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  5. Okay, I’m in.

    Walks, Carter
    Games, Altuve
    Doubles, Castro
    Runs, Carter
    Innings, Norris
    K rate, tough one…..Bedard?
    BB rate, Veras?

    One thing I noticed during the weekend is that Norris and Harrell are tied with most wins for the Astros at 6 each. Even with Norris gone, this being August 19, that’s a remarkable stat.

    Speaking of Castro for a moment, he has a 3.2 OWAR, which is third best in the league and an 0.7 DWAR which is 12th in the league.

    Corporan has a 1.0 OWAR and an 0.6 DWAR.

    So without even checking our 2013 Astros position by position, or even other teams at the catcher position, I’m guessing that our catchers are probably putting up the best combined WAR on the team, and a better than average figure league wide.

    So as much as I’d personally like to see Castro doing something else than catching for the Astros, I really don’t have much of an argument at this point in time.

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      • Yes Dan, but I will semi patiently await the arrival of a catcher who catches, does all the good things that real backstops do, and who also hits the ball too! Max already looks very mature back there in AA. I’m hoping he keeps growing in the batters box.

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    • DaveB – not arguing at all, but I think a defensive catcher is like a “shutdown” corner in football. They never get the ball thrown in their direction, so they never lead the league in INTs. Measuring a defensive catcher – such as secondary leads by a base runner (1st to 3rd), or pitchers unable to throw certain pitches in certain counts, etc. is difficult at best. Again, not arguing the stats or placements, but some are not measurable with any accuracy – in my opinion. That might make the Astros catcher higher or lower in rank.

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      • Agreed 45, if I’m reading you right, on a team full of hitters, Castro’s offense stats might get overlooked, and his defensive liabilities might well become more glaring. Right now we need his bat and don’t have a better option behind the dish, offensively or defensively.

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  6. George Springer has the chance to be a 40-40 guy, for the first time in 57yrs.
    AND……if you think Brett Wallace has huge thighs……..you gotta see this
    6’4″ 315lb. first baseman Luhnow just signed out of the Mexican league!!
    HE IS *H U G E*!

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    • Wow, up to 35 HR, 39 SB for his combined year at AA and AAA. OKC has 13 games left to play. Thanks for the heads up, Becky.

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  7. If we had guys hitting HR’s like crazy, Castro’s defense might get over looked, but
    when you’re in a 1-2 run lead, and you give up free bases, and free runs……………
    he becomes a *glaring hole* in your lineup.

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  8. All I’ll say is when the Astros had Ausmus — a “shutdown corner” catcher if there ever was one — people complained and griped till the cows came home. And then some. Truthfully, everyone would love a Pudge in his prime, but there just aren’t that many of those around.

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  9. As much as it pains me to “watch” this team go through the past three seasons, I would not go out on the market just yet. Get the foundation laid and then address real issues and shortcomings at a particular position. The shotgun approach almost never works. And one or two FA signings just ain’t going to put us over the top. Agree that Castro’s defensive liabilities are reason for concern but I am impressed with his offense side. As much as I hate the DL, this might be a good stop with being the #2 catcher and 1st base as another option.
    How did that last big FA contract work out for us? i think the Angels have an albatross around their neck with the Pujolos and Hamilton signings. We’re going to need the $ in a few years if the pitching prospects measure up. If they do, we sign them to long term deals at bargain rates.
    I say no to Scoscia but I’d say yes to Tony D in a heat beat. He deserves a shot if it happens. As for Bo, I’d give him a C+ for this year but if he bolts for the Nationals and I doubt he will, Ces’t le vie (sp).

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