In the press conference where Jim Crane most notably stated that new GM Randy Flores has total authority, he also said he is not supporting a rebuild of the team. Crane said he does not envision a “complete teardown” but expects targeted changes to “solidify a better lineup and a better team than we had last year”.
Now perhaps all he was saying was that they could tweak the team and end up better than their 81-81 record of 2026. But given how he has operated up to now, he is really saying that, with a few targeted changes, the team would be a championship contender.
Unless those “targeted changes” include spending like an heir to the LA Dodgers’ fortune, it is hard to see how this front office can accomplish that, especially given Crane’s statements that he would like to spend less and get more, as the Brewers and Rays did this season.
Why Jim Crane Should Adjust His Expectations of This Team
- The current arc of the team – Since the 2022 championship (106-56) season, the Astros have been on a downward plunge. 90 wins in 2023, 88 in 2024, 87 in 2025, and 81 in 2026 do not look like a team that will suddenly spring back to the top of baseball. They have and will continue to lose their best talent and if things don’t change they will be sitting here after the 2027 season without Jeremy Pena and after the 2028 season without Hunter Brown and Yordan Alvarez. Patch, patch, patch will not reverse this trend.
- MVP Alvarez – If the team could only squeeze out an 81-81 record and a two-and-done playoff run with Alvarez putting up unbelievable numbers, what happens if he regresses or, God forbid, returns to his soft tissue injuries in 2027? It is ugly to think about.
- Starting Pitching – We talked about this problem recently. Astros’ offseason: A snapshot of the starting pitching – ALL THINGS ASTROS. Bottomline, to challenge for a championship a team must have good and deep starting pitching. The Astros don’t have it and to get it is very costly in either free agent money, cheap help from the minors (which doesn’t look to good right now) or trades that send a lot of capital in players the other way. Maybe a miracle will happen and every question mark they are depending on will come through plus some help from outside all in one glorious season. But don’t count on it.
- The Meddling – If Jim Crane and Jeff Bagwell meddle in Flo’s total authority and veto trades or force other trades and free agent pickups of the Jose Abreu, Christian Walker back of the baseball card deals, this is doomed. The GM will need the elbow room to change how the team is doing business if they want to have different results.
- The Money – We know Jim Crane has been willing to flirt at or above the luxury tax level, but probably is not happy with recent results from doing that. But the money also covers expenses related to the team’s infrastructure. We are reading articles where the team is towards the bottom in staff supporting the statistical side of baseball. Like it or not, the investment in sabermetrics and the cutting-edge application of stats is part of what made this team the top of the heap for a decade. Whether this is a money issue or the influence of old-style baseball guy Bagwell, it needs to change. If this team wants to get results beyond their payroll, they need to invest in this side of the organization.
There are certainly other items to list here, but I will leave that up to you. Why do you think Jim Crane needs to lower his expectations (if you do).
