If the 2026 Astros were a three-legged stool of offense, relief pitching, and starting pitching (yes, for this example I am skipping fielding), the short leg of the stool was starting pitching.
In the American League, the 2026 Astros starters had a 4.86 ERA (14th out of 15), threw 774.2 innings (12th), had a 1.40 WHIP (14th), gave up 378 walks (worst in fewer innings than most of the other teams), and gave up 113 HRs (fifth worst, with three teams ahead of them with many more innings pitched).
The Astros had 19 different pitchers start games, though, truth be told, four of those were “opener” starts by relievers. Of the 15 real starters used, 8 ended up with ERAs of 5.00 or higher, and 3 (Spencer Arrighetti, Lance McCullers and Colton Gordon) ended up with other organizations.
It was rather amazing the team was anywhere near the .500 mark, much less making the playoffs as the AL West default champs.
Heading into the off-season, what does the future of the starting staff look like?
Hunter Brown – After missing 2-1/2 months early in the season, Brown came back to start 20 games for the Astros. He was good with a 3.19 ERA, but he was not the Cy Young-ish stud he showed in 2025, and he had only seven starts of six innings or more, culminating in one seven-inning start back in July. Again, he was good but frankly was not the ace the Astros were hoping for. They have two seasons left of control, but will he complete those two seasons here?
Looking forward to 2027….
- Best case scenario – A return to the 12-9, 2.43 ERA, 5.9 WAR stud of 2025.
- Worst case scenario – Another uneven and semi-injured season like 2026?
Peter Lambert – His 8-10, 3.82 ERA numbers look pedestrian. But he led the team in wins (8), games started (29), and innings pitched (155.2) – the last two by huge margins. And then there is this. If you remove one start in August where he gave up 9 runs in 3.2 innings – his ERA for the other 28 starts was 3.38. Also, his last win was in July – but in his last 14 winless starts – 10 of them he allowed 2 or fewer runs.
The question with Lambert is …. Will he do this again or was this like Jason Alexander of 2025? The gut feeling is that he is a better pitcher than that, but he also looked like he was struggling at the end of the season as he went way beyond his previous high for innings.
Looking forward to 2027….
- Best case scenario – A similar performance to 2026, but with more run support and more wins.
- Worst case scenario – A crash back to earth as he is figured out by the rest of baseball.
Cristian Javier – After finally returning from TJ surgery to start the season – he missed 3 more months with shoulder tightness and soreness. When he returned in July, he roller coastered a bit before hitting his stride in September, going 1-1 with a fine 1.96 ERA. He left his last start somewhat ominously on September 22 after 2 innings, but it was a groin injury, which, while not fun, is not the concern an elbow or shoulder injury would be.
Cristian will be paid $21+ million for 2027.
Looking forward to 2027…
- Best-case scenario – It is probably too much to ask to get back the Invisiball master of 2022, who went 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and was part of a regular-season and a World Series no-hitter. But maybe a solid season in that 3 to 3.5 ERA range is doable, especially after seeing an uptick in his pitching in September.
- Worst case scenario – Arm troubles return, and he ends up being a black hole where $60+ million disappeared into…
Hayden Wesneski – Wesneski was the one returnee from the IL, who really seemed to be all the way back. Starting 11 games down the stretch, he went 6-2 with a 3.25 ERA and did what no other pitcher was doing, which was keeping his pitch count down and innings up, including three seven-inning outings, which for this team was significant.
They still have 3 seasons of control with Wesneski.
Looking forward to 2027…
- Best case scenario – Wesneski continues his strong end of 2026 and rolls up into a third man in the rotation spot and stays healthy.
- Worst case scenario – His arm problems return or….he is not that effective, and the league figures him out.
Mike Burrows – Last off-season, the Astros sent prospects Anderson Brito and Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay (in a 3-way trade) and received SP Mike Burrows from the Pirates. They thought they were receiving a pitcher who was pretty solid in 2025 (2-4, 3.95 ERA) in 23 games /19 starts and who was under team control through 2031.
They received a pitcher who was awful in 2026 (4-9, 5.99 ERA) and extremely hittable (10.6 hits / 9 IP and 2 HRs/ 9 IP). Burrows did not pitch enough to “qualify” for pitching stats, but for those three stats (ERA, Hits/9 IP, HRs/9 IP) – his numbers are worse than any of the qualifiers in the majors.
Looking forward to 2027…
- Best-case scenario – They unlock his talent and end up with a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm.
- Worst-case scenario – Burrows does not improve and either remains a bad option in the rotation or becomes a non-option.
Tatsuya Imai – This is the biggest mystery heading into 2027. Will Imai even want to return for 2027? If he returns will he even be used in any useful way in 2027? Can the team make him feel more comfortable and can he psychologically overcome whatever demons were preventing him from pitching up to his talent level.
He showed sparks of good pitching, including throwing 6 no-hit innings on the way to a multi-pitcher no-hitter back in May and solid (but sporadic) effectiveness in his last eight non-starting appearances, where he had a 2.00 ERA out of the bullpen. But he could not be trusted in the rotation as 4 of his 15 starts ended at 1.1 inning or less due mostly to control problems. His 6.8 hits / 9 IP was good. His 6 walks / 9 IP was very bad.
Looking forward to 2027….if he does not opt out of his $18 million contract for each of the next two seasons.
- Best case scenario – He spends time with pitching guru Brent Strom and perhaps with psychological guru Sigmund Freud V and comes back a confident and controlled starting pitcher.
- Worst-case scenario – He continues to disappoint with his inconsistency and remains a mop-up pitcher at the back of the bullpen, sopping up $18 million for almost nothing.
Ethan Pecko – Pecko’s 2-0 record and 3.95 ERA disguise the fact that he was so much better as a reliever than a starter. He put up a 5.85 ERA as a starter and a 1.26 ERA as a reliever. The odd part is that his three relief appearances were actually the first one out of the bullpen after a one-inning opener started the game, and he pitched multiple innings like a starter would.
Is he ready to join a rotation next season or is he just a candidate for a long relief spot?
Looking forward to 2027…
- Best case scenario – Pecko takes a step forward and is able to be a back end of the rotation candidate.
- Worst case scenario – He is unable to produce as a starter like he does out of the bullpen.
Ronel Blanco – Blanco returned in July 2026 from his TJ surgery in June 2025, but with not as successful results (0-1, 6.68 ERA in 8 games/5 starts) as Hayden Wesneski. With an additional off-season to build back arm strength and accuracy can he find the success he had in 2024 (13-6, 2.80 ERA), when he was arguably the Astros best starter?
Looking forward to 2027….
- Best case scenario – He channels the 2024 Blanco and rolls into the 2nd or 3rd spot in the rotation.
- Worst case scenario – At 33 y.o. he is no longer “that” guy and he fades into the sunset.
Brandon Walter – Back in 2025, the lefty came up and threw 9 strong starts – averaging almost 6 innings an outing with a very good 3.35 ERA. Then he followed the parade of Astros pitchers with arm troubles, had TJ surgery late in the season and sat out all of 2026. There was tantalizing talent here, but with the shadow of arm problems looming over his career.
Looking forward to 2027….
- Best case scenario – Even if he does not grab a job immediately, at some point he steps up and earns a starting rotation spot and shows why they held on to him.
- Worst case scenario – It never comes back or if it does, he is one of those guys that just can’t stay healthy.
Miguel Ullola – In some ways this seems unlikely after the great job Ullola did in limited appearances at the MLB level out of the bullpen, but he has started 86 games in the minors including 33 at the AAA level. It is a thought.
- Best case scenario – They take a flyer on the young man and he continues to put the competition away as a starter. (Best scenario part B – he turns into a high leverage late inning beast out of the bullpen).
- Worst case scenario – Trying to make him a starter messes with his head and he can’t pitch as a starter or a reliever.
Jackson Nezuh – He pitched solidly between AA and AAA in 2026 ending up with a 4-3 record and 3.83 ERA in 26 games / 19 starts. Like many a prospect – he needs better control.
Looking forward to 2027…..
- Best case scenario – He seasons a bit more at AAA in 2027, places those pitches better and gets a call-up when needed.
- Worst case scenario – He never finds the plate.
If you look closely at this list, the biggest take away is that the Astros desperately need more solid, dependable starting pitching. That is expensive – either as a free agent or based on what you would have to trade away to get it.
What are your thoughts?
