Astros’ 2027: Looking at the $$$

An interesting discussion in the comments section of the last post about dead or bad contracts has prompted me to review the overall 2027 budget against the current 40-man roster.

Note: a lockout or strike may / will totally turn this discussion upside down as would a new CBA, so a lot of this may fall by the wayside. But following current rules, here is where we stand.

Approximate Luxury Tax Level for 2027 – This is unknown – 2026 was $244 million, and the level had not gone up more than a few million each season, but… the new CBA could change this drastically.

Contracted Salaries  (7) – Jose Altuve ($33MM), Carlos Correa ($20.5MM), Yordan Alvarez ($26.8MM), Cristian Javier ($21.4MM), Christian Walker ($20MM), Josh Hader ($19MM), and Tatsuya Imai ($18.6MM) are under contract for ~$159.3MM total.

The areas of possible relief here are:

  • If by some miracle Imai decides to turn his back on $18.66 million for each of the next 2 seasons and opts out and heads back home or to another team – that money could come off the books. Don’t hold your breath on this.
  • Christian Walker being traded with a chunk of his salary paid by the Astros ($10 million??) for some low level prospect.
  • Cristian Javier being traded with a chunk of his salary paid by the Astros ($11 million or more) for some low level prospect.
  • Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader being traded as part of some kind of sell-off.

But in reality there will probably be no relief here unless the new GM is told to slash and burn.

Arbitration Salaries (11) – Note this includes Isaac Paredes – there is a team option for him for $13.35 million for 2027, which almost exactly matches his predicted arbitration number of $13.6MM. All arbitration predicted numbers are from Spotrac and of course depend on if there is even something called arbitration in the future.

Jeremy Pena ($17.5MM), Isaac Paredes ($13.6MM), Hunter Brown ($10.75MM), Yainer Diaz ($5.75MM), Jake Meyers ($5.3MM), Peter Lambert ($4.5MM), Nick Allen ($1.35MM), Hayden Wesneski ($975K), Taylor Trammell ($900K), Bennett Sousa ($850K) and Ronel Blanco ($850K) – a total of approx. ($62.32MM).

The areas of possible relief here are:

  • There is no way Jake Meyers will be allowed to go to arbitration (IMHO). He will be non-tendered (unless they get him to agree to some incentive laden low-ball contract).
  • They could also decide to non-tender Trammell (performance), Sousa (performance and a big mouth) and Blanco (lack of confidence he will ever be an effective pitcher again).
  • Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and Hunter Brown are all candidates for potential trades. All of them should have quite a lot of trade value. Pena and Paredes will be free agents after 2027 and Brown after 2028.
  • I am putting Yainer Diaz in another category here based on the lack of catching depth in the organization, but if they are trying to go grab prospects in a fire sale mode, he would also draw a lot of interest.

What will they do? Meyers will be gone and if….a CBA is agreed to, I believe they will at least attempt to send Jeremy Pena elsewhere at the height of his value and while he still has a season of control.

Other (1) – The Astros have a $5MM team option on Ryan Weiss that they will not opt for, but they will have to pay him a $500K buyout.

Pre-arb (20) – Spotrac shows the remaining folks as Pre-arbitration and estimate their salaries at $1 million a year. This includes the likely to be on the roster – A.J. Blubaugh, Can Smith, Ethan Pecko, Miguel Ullola, Lucas Spence, Logan VanWey, Michael Burrows, Joey Lperfido, Kai-Wei Teng, Alimber Santa, Colin Price, Brice Matthews, Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Zach Cole Jr. and Josh Hendrickson. It also includes the question marks – Bryan King, Nelson Velasquez, Brandon Walter, Raynel Delgado and Jorge Barrosa.  Now since the minimum salary for 2026 was $760K, that seems a little high unless they think the minimum salary will be a million in the new CBA. There are a couple that would likely get a contract over the minimum when it happens, such as A.J. Blubaugh and Cam Smith. No matter what they do the “rest” of the roster (at this point) is going to cost them in the $25 million range – up or down.

Areas where decisions could be made to clear roster spots….

  • They likely will bring back King and Walter. Walter pitched very well before his surgery and perhaps King was pitching through “something” in the second half of 2026.
  • I’m showing some underperforming OFs as safe and maybe they are and maybe the new front office will go a whole new direction. Matthews may be safe as a top draft pick, but where do Loperfido, Dezenzo and Cole Jr. fall in the hierarchy.
  • Velasquez, Delgado and Barrosa did not do anything to tell me they need to be kept around.

Toting these numbers up – the numbers above take you to $247.1 million without adding any new shiny free agents or without sending anyone packing. This is above last year’s luxury tax level.

Looking ahead, if the Astros are not throwing in the towel on this competitive window, the Astros should spend or trade for a backup catcher, outfield help, starting pitching help and some bullpen help.

Some questions….

  • Will they chase either/or Steven Okert, who was excellent last year or Bryan Abreu who was excellent when his brain was screwed on straight? They don’t usually like to compete for their own players once they hit free agency.
  • Will they spend money or trade value on real pitching help this time around rather than relying on a number of forays into signing questionable (cheap) help or in Imai’s case (not so cheap) options?
  • Most of their top prospects Astros Top Prospects | MiLB.com are not close to the majors. Jason Schiavone had a 20/20 season as mostly a catcher and part time 1B, while walking a ton, but wait for it…striking out 173 times in only 437 ABs in levels up to AAA. You would think a new GM would say this team has to bring in some strong prospects from other organizations while waiting for some of their best prospects (Kevin Alvarez, Xavier Neyens, Logan Hughes, etc) to climb the ladder.
  • Which brings this around to a real base question. Are they going to watch Jeremy Pena leave like George Springer, Alex Bregman and others or will they trade him before hand? Or will they trade Isaac Paredes to make room for Carlos Correa? Or will they sit on it while they wait for Correa or someone else to pull up lame in 2027 – if there is a 2027?
  • And the biggest question of all – do they have the stomach to do a half baked or full throttle tear down and rebuild for this team?

We will explore these questions more as the off-season moves on towards the inevitable labor dispute. Will one side or the other blink? Will they go with the nuclear option and let the 2027 season disappear like the 1994 season? Posts for another day.

←
→

23 responses to “Astros’ 2027: Looking at the $$$”

  1. When we first moved to Houston in 1966 and went to the Astrodome for the first time – there was this small outdoor stadium sitting in the parking lot of the Dome.

    ‘We shouldn’t forget our history’: Houston’s Colt Stadium gets historical marker

    Being from the North country originally – it was hard to picture folks sitting out in the summer sun or the nighttime mosquito-fest that Colt Stadium had to be. Looking back though – we were living in a house in Spring Branch with no central air (a couple window units and an attic fan) and our car had no AC. It was a different time – but the Dome was a quantum leap forward.

    Like

    Reply

    • I loved the Dome. Only one rainout, actually a flood out. The place was just so big inside!

      Last week a couple of guys were saying the Astros might have their new GM by the time the WS started. I’d like to hear what Crane has to say and get a few words from our owners replacement for Dana Brown before I try to guess what’s next.

      Seems like some MLB experts think there will be a real rush to sign FA’s before December 1.

      Chandler Rome thinks there is no shortage of qualified candidates to accept the rare GM opening here in Houston. But I wonder. Will Dana ever see another GM job in MLB?

      I’m hoping Imai is home wanting not to come back and be miserable again. Negotiate a settlement. He can be a big fish in a small pond again. If we can save half his money over the next two years, it might pay for an Abreu.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  3. Here I am.

    I think Imai will leave on his own accord. Pena will be traded. I agree with your non-tenders mentioned. They should look at trading Hader.

    How the other bullpen arms work out should be looked at around the end of December to see if they have improved or declined. Pull them in and have an informal workout with them.

    Like

    Reply

  4. I loved the Dome. Only one rainout, actually a flood out. The place was just so big inside!

    Last week a couple of guys were saying the Astros might have their new GM by the time the WS started. I’d like to hear what Crane has to say and get a few words from our owners replacement for Dana Brown before I try to guess what’s next.

    Seems like some MLB experts think there will be a real rush to sign FA’s before December 1.

    Chandler Rome thinks there is no shortage of qualified candidates to accept the rare GM opening here in Houston. But I wonder. Will Dana ever see another GM job in MLB?

    I’m hoping Imai is home wanting not to come back and be miserable again. Negotiate a settlement. He can be a big fish in a small pond again. If we can save half his money over the next two years, it might pay for an Abreu.

    Like

    Reply

  5. The Texans have become a tough team to watch too. But they might only play 17 games in 2026. The Astros teased us for 164.

    Ten penalties, two of them personal fouls. Unlike the Astros, I think our football team has deep talent. But where does the offense go from week to week? What happened to the alleged Super Bowl defense? We sure did not flummox J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start today.

    Out hustled, out disciplined, out coached, again. It’s a conversation that won’t go away this time.

    Like

    Reply

    • A Director of Hitting, a Director of Pitching? Sounds like what we see at the local bureaucratic government offices. Lot’s of positions being created that do nothing to enhance the lives of their constituents or in this case the players. Maybe I’m wrong but somebody enlighten me if that’s the case.

      Like

      Reply

      • That’s typically my reaction to these hirings as well, but given how our minor league system has failed to produce hitters I’m of the opinion someone new overseeing what all the clubs are doing or not doing is important.

        Like

  8. They have just painted themselves into a corner with some of these contracts.

    Part of it is always targeting “signable” guys. Let’s be honest, I love Altuve. But he was never going to get an Aaron Judge contract on the open market. He is “signable.” Why compete for Polar Bear when you can get Walker for fewer years and AAV? Then running to the scrap heap over and over….. Well no one should be surprised when they go bad. Jose Abreu was a former MVP yet no one else in all of baseball was going to beat 3/59.5? Really?

    Since the departure of Luhnow this team has lost a step in player evaluation. Never met the man but the rumors of his level of sociopathy in how he was committed to the roster more than the player is exactly what a baseball roster needs. I’m not really sure he would have given Altuve a 5/125M extension when the Astros had absolutely no competition for that kind of deal. To me, you have to go outside the players circle to be honest in your evaluations, a former player will just look at the back of the baseball card, and commit to players first.

    So, in the end, trading for Justin Verlander when he gave you less than a replacement player for 28 more starts, and yes NY paid some of it, but we paid a giant chunk – not so great. We trade for Carlos Correa out of nostalgia when we already have a guy at 3B. We almost trade a younger, arguably (at least in some aspects) better player, luckily don’t because we paid Carlos Correa 21M this year to rehab. But we were right back there. The only deal that has worked out where we got the better end has been Yordan. The Astros have gotten 17.2 WAR from him in 4 years on a 19M AAV. I’ll take that. Judge has given the Yankees 27.2 WAR in that same period – but at a 40M AAV. And Judge is much older. He is going into his age 35 season. He won’t be the monster he has been, and the Yankees will still be paying him 40M a year.

    I am in favor of a great reset. Trade everyone with a pulse that can bring you back young guys. This will get very expensive for Crane as revenue will crater and he will still have all these untradeable contracts, some for quite a few years. But the returns on Pena, Alvarez, Paredes, Brown, Diaz, Lambert – anyone that is arb 2 plus and can get you at least one organizational top 20 prospect – got to go.

    But you don’t HAVE to do this. You can try and be a surgeon about this. When a patient has a serious infection in their hand, no real doctor runs and gets the axe. No, they use a scalpel, and they go right after it.

    Trade guys its obvious you are not the team for. Pena is going to want a deal that would end up, in the long run, a bad contract for this team. If you give Pena a 8-10 year deal he STARTS that contract at 30. Oof. He can’t stay healthy now. But you know what he can do for you? Two org top 20 guys. Maybe a third lottery ticket from low A. Same with Yordan. You are talking about a guy, that if he repeats in 2027 what he did in 2026, will be a near record contract. That is not the Astros. You don’t have to trade Yordan this year, but listen. If someone like Boston comes screaming in with Franklin Arias, Connelly Early and a package of 3 other top 40ish org minor leaguers, by golly, you listen. That’s a franchise defining type move. And give Hunter a year to figure it out. If he has a top 5 Cy finisher type season again, listen. But hey, if the Astros decide two guys are going to get huge deals, these are the two. I wouldn’t be mad at them, they are both just young enough that it will be years 5, 6, 7 that you probably have to worry about.

    And stay off the market. There is practically nothing there. Go get a back up catcher. That’s it. Randy Arozarena is a franchise killer. Someone else can give him that 5/115M contract for his ages 32-36 seasons. He might get a 6th out of someone. He isn’t that guy. He might land on his feet at 32 and 33, but by 35 oof. Go swoop up Ward on the cheap for 1 year, stick him in LF in a L/R platoon with someone like Wade. LF won’t give you a lot of counting stats that way, but they will extend pitchers, see pitches, I just don’t know how much sting either guy has in their bats at this point. But I don’t know where you get sting. At least get length. I can’t fix CF. They need a big brain. The answer is probably going to be a cheap, defense first guy. Maybe you don’t offer Meyers arbitration but bring him back on a minor league deal to ST. Maybe you get Varsho back on a cheap, 1 year prove it deal at 2M. Maybe you bring back Myles Straw. Maybe Luis Robert is out there for 1 year at 2M. Whatever you do, its another bandaid, and CF needs to be batting 9th that can be pinch hit for late, but someone that goes and gets. Try and get some dWAR out of the position if you are going to get no oWAR.

    Like

    Reply

    • Crane really needs someone whispering in his ear that these available free agents aren’t going to fill the stands. I’m sure there was a modest bump when they traded for Correa just like when they traded for Verlander, but as you point out their salaries were too high and were going to obliterate any short term gain. One correction – we should have pried Early away from Boston last spring, but instead he got traded to WAS in the summer.

      Like

      Reply

      • 100% correct Devin. Yordan certainly does not fill seats. I hope Altuve never gets booed out at second base, but the fans are restless. Regardless, Jose is not putting people in seats at this point either. If Jim Crane wants to fill seats he needs to win games. And 81 or 87 won’t do it. He should understand that.

        Like

    • You know Steven, every time I start going over the options, I end up deleting. It’s going to be painful watching Jose over the next three seasons. How ironic the chess match will only allow us to get Altuve off the field if we trade the best designated hitter on the planet. It’s the most essential first step in rehabilitating this franchise though. But I don’t think it will ever happen with Crane/Bagwell in the picture. As the locals say around here, dey run tings.

      Like

      Reply

  9. Sooo…it seems the hunt for new GM is heating up…several candidates have interviewed, and a new name has popped up over the weekend.

    Mike Rizzo is apparently in the running. The former Washington Nationals GM/President. Not that age is a thing, but he’s 65 and many wonder if he’s up on the analytical side of things…he did well in Washington for a number of years, but the last 4-5 years…not so good.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  10. Watching the podcast of Chandler Rome today and they actually had an interesting idea. Correa wants to play third base. Pena in all likelihood should be traded. Altuve shouldn’t play anywhere near a full season at second and he’s not a true DH. Walker needs to be traded and we’ll definitely have to eat some of that salary. Who plays short stop and 1st base? A free agent currently with the Braves who was a former Astro who can play multiple positions, Maricio Dubon. Then move Paredes to 1st base and your infield is looking OK considering the options. I really doubt Jose will reach 3,000 hits but I might be wrong and if there is a lockout all will lose a partial or complete season. It’s time to plan for the future and if we play the hand that we now hold we’ll continue the downward slide for the next 3-4 years. We’ll see what the new and improved GM will do.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a Reply