It’s over: Now what?

Chip texted me yesterday moments after the Astros went whimpering into the night – “Our long national nightmare is over!”

I texted back “I think our long national nightmare is just beginning.”

The overriding thought is that the Astros proved, in the end, that they really had no business making the playoffs. They made it not because of what they did, but because all the other teams in the AL below them did less.

Folks know that I like to involve the readers by asking questions, so here are ten questions to kick off the offseason.

1. Why did the Astros meltdown to a .500 team this year? What are the underlying issues?

2. What kind of General manager would you pursue if you were the Astros? Data heavy? Old fashion scout type? Hybrid?

3. This one may be resolved by the time this is posted – but should the Astros extend Manager Joe Espada? If not – what kind of manager should they go for next time? Stern leader? Player’s manager? Nerd Extraordinaire? Old Guy? First Timer?

4. Will Imai opt out of his contract? There is really no reason why he would opt out of making $36 million over the next two seasons. Unless….he is so miserable he will turn his back on the money and trudge back to his home country.

5. Would you trade Jeremy Pena this off-season? He will be a free agent after 2027. (Note – no one is likely to trade for him while there is a walkout/lockout.)

6.  After Christian Walker’s negative words about the fans booing – would you swallow most or all of his last year of contract – $20 million – to send him packing (if you were the GM – which we don’t have one)?

7. If you had a magic wand – what one thing would you want to change about the way the Astros do business?

8. Yordan Alvarez (likely MVP and signed though 2028 at almost $27 million a year) and Josh Hader (signed through 2028 at $19 million a year) are the Astros best players – would you consider trading one or both?

9. If the Astros made Jeff Bagwell the General Manager – what would you do? Scream at the moon? Cancel your mlb TV or SCHN cable? Smile and wait for the inevitable meltdown?

10. If you were parceling out blame for the Astros current situation – how would you split the percentages between – Jim Crane – Dana Brown – Joe Espada – the players – Jeff Bagwell?

Thanks for stopping in – can’t wait to see your answers and I will share mine later.

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31 responses to “It’s over: Now what?”

  1. Before I answer, let me ask “how did the Angels most 100 games this year?” I guess a few guys underperformed. Perhaps the difference between the Astros winning 81 and the Angels only winning 62 can be simplified down to Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader.

    1. Did you see what most other teams brough out of their bullpens this year? It really felt like our group overachieved. And then they didn’t and we had a bad stretch in the second half.
    2. Hybrid. I’m focused on player development as a strategy for long term success rather than player acquisition. Every level is a filter. You have to find guys who will not only look good in the uniform but will be able to climb the levels.
    3. I’m probably going to complain about the hire regardless of who it is. If they win games I’ll change my tune.
    4. I think most players would have their pride irreparably damaged by the way the Astros used him this year. My expectation is his agent will have him opt out, make a statement about not being a good fit for the organization’s philosophies or something, and get him a deal elsewhere. Careers are finite lengths and returning to Houston just for the money makes little sense unless he thinks his results next year will be different.
    5. This depends on the return. You absolutely have to get back a player who can play SS or know of one you can acquire in a different deal or signing. If that can’t happen you roll the dice with an eye to trading him in July. The risk is he gets hurt or has a bad first half and tanks his value, but both of those likely indicate the Astros would be out of the race and getting anything back would be better than letting him walk for nothing.
    6. Probably not, but this feels like deja vu. What do we do with Correa, Paredes, and Walker?
    7. I’m tired of the one or no tool outfielders we’re bringing in as lottery tickets. I guess that extended to pitching this spring too.
    8. Yes, I’m considering it for two reasons. First, we’ve got no help walking through that door. 81 wins might be the peak of what they can bring. Second, Vlad Guererror, Jr., is right that he’s paid for what he did. The hope is these guys will continue to do it at a high enough level, but there will eventually be a fall-off. I don’t move them unless I can get a return that’s really exciting to the fanbase though.
    9. I’d be less annoyed than most people. The worst scenario is multiple minds making decisions that could be at odds. If Bagwell comes in and wants to field players based on the back of their baseball card it might not work, but at least it’s a strategy the scouts and analytics team can work with.
    10. This is a fun question, but without really know why certain players were targeted and signed it’s impossible to answer. Ultimately, I think the players needed to be better. I think Mauricio Dubon is a perfect example here. He’s not a great hitter. He doesn’t have great power. He got 619 PA in Atlanta and had a productive year playing way above what I thought he was capable of doing. I’m not suggesting Taylor Trammel should have done the same, but I’m also suggesting there were too many empty at bats where he just wasn’t competitive.

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  2. Devin

    I totally agree with your comparison between the Astros and Angels. The Astros were bad in the beginning of the season without Hader, but my goodness they would have been putrid if Yordan was also out. When Hader came back they were bottomed out – they were not great the rest of the season but they were above .500.

    I think if the Astros had to play 50 more games at the end of the season they would have collapsed. Their pitching was toast.

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  3. Dan I’m going to try and not write a book on your first assignment. We got all offseason.

    1. The roster is full of waiver pick ups and AAAA players. By full, I mean full. Trammell, Wade, Loperfido, Allen, Vazquez (at this point), Meyers, Dezenzo, Spence, Cole, Delgado, Harris, Velasquez, Whitcomb, Salazar, Johnson, Barrosa, Price, just the rift raft of position players that the Astros were forced to take chances on because they had no money after some failed contracts. Its hard when you are forced to trade Sanchez and Dubon to save money, and the guys you trade them for don’t turn out to be major contributors. You give Weiss 2M, and he stinks. Jason Alexander’s clock struck midnight. Just picking up every Roa or Munoz you can seeing which ones stick. Sometimes I wonder if they thought about positions 5-9 in the batting order or the front of the bullpen.
    2. Data driven. But he needs to be more flexible filling the bench.
    3. Espada is going to have to wait on a new GM is my guess.
    4. Why would Imai opt out? I’m guessing – but I think he is back in the rotation in ST if there is a ST.
    5. Would I trade Pena? Without question.
    6. Walker packing – probably not. He is not hitting well. But he hasn’t bellied up like Abreu did. He can probably duplicate a .225-.230 season and hit 25 HR. Now, if I could trade him, he gone. But I don’t think you can.
    7. Stop spending at the top of your roster if it means you are going to have 11 minimum salary guys, especially when you have no minor league system providing you some of that talent. No, instead, its a bunch of waiver wire guys.
    8. I would trade both. But I’m not the new GM.
    9. Bagwell won’t be the new GM. Why? I don’t think he would want that. Besides, he sat right there on TV and bashed an analytical approach. I feel like the only people saying Bagwell are really just living in fear. Doesn’t seem like a realistic option.
    10. Crane – 100%. The other people can’t do it unless he puts them in position.

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    1. Why? It’s been coming, the long, slow meltdown. Still no outfield. Cam actually went a bit backwards, even with those 21 homers. Maybe he’ll be a Dave Kingman with defense. Right side of the infield continued its decline. Per BR, Jose finished the season with an 0.0 WAR. We only got 112 games from Pena. Every starting pitcher acquired during the off season was a bust, except for Lambert and he was essentially invited to go elsewhere. Injuries. And more late injuries. We had a weak GM for three years. We had a meddling owner. We had Jeff Bagwell.
    2. Data and more data. And the only way for our newest version of a GM to be successful will have to include an ability to practice an elevated level of detente daily.
    3. Joe will need to go. Those last two games were played in a real funk. Gosh, I’d much rather go to battle next year with all those kids in the other dugout.

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  5. 4. Gosh, if Imai bailed on his contract due to home sickness, it would be a real gift. But if the guy is going to be miserable through 2028, then there has to be a buyout discussion. Probably a long shot.

    5. Pena has to get traded if clubs are trading. Imagine, Cam Smith is the weakest link in the Tucker deal.

    6. He talks too much. But while Sousa at least apologized, nothing from Walker. Nobody seemed to have any interest in acquiring Walker last year, but who knows, maybe Bagwell nixed any such consideration.

    7. Get Bagwell out of the picture. We’ll lose good GM candidates due to Bagwell being here. By the way, no comments from Bags on the season ending so suddenly.

    8. Sadly, yes I’d listen to trade offers. Will either Alvarez or Hader ever put together better seasons again? And even with them both having stunning years in 2026, we still ended up playing .500 ball as a team. Those two guys can’t help our present situation enough. The only real way to change the dynamic of this club in a big way quickly is let them help us one last time.

    9. Bagwell is not stupid. He’s got a great situation. He does not have to take any heat when things go south. Doesn’t even have to comment on how bad his organization has slipped.

    10. Crane. The fish stinks from the head down. The victim is Joe. Given a 90 win club, he’d probably win 90.

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    • Steven – maybe I said this the other day but my brother and I were texting back and forth about how many folks were on this roster that just did not belong on a major league roster. I will say this – perhaps if they gave Dezenzo or Loperfido an extended stint they might have gotten it together. But it is crazy how many OFs and pitchers wandered in and out here.

      That 100% Crane is an interesting take and frankly hard to dispute.

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      • Leadership 101 Dan. If you are the leader, whatever happens, is on you. If you needed to be more active, on you. If you needed to be less active and let other talented people do it, but you can’t, it’s on you.

        Crane and Jerry Jones have a lot more in common than I first thought. They got to the circumstance of losing their truly talented people a different way, but the result is looking awfully similar.

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    • daveb

      I had been thinking the other day (after another good start by Wesneski) that Cam might be the lowest of the three in that trade. But hey you are lucky if you can get 2 of 3 to be solid in a 3 for 1 trade. But I will say it again – Cam is only 23 (but I will only stick with that age point for one more year).

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      • You know Dan, it’s hard to decide what version of dWAR makes more sense than the next. BR gave Cam an 0.1 dWAR on the season after his 0.9 dWAR in his rookie year. Seems like most stuff I read still grades his range highly. Same with his arm strength. But that arm does not seem to be all that accurate. And he looked more tentative to me in the outfield this year. Was he more aggressive in 2025? Regardless, if he figures out how to become a reliable hitter, it sure would be a good thing. But he’s likely pretty far down the list of things the Astros have to fix in 2027. It’s a long list.

        One more thought from a non-expert. Baseball Savant has his bat speed at 99th percentile. There is no prettier swing in the game when he hits one out. But would he be better off with a little less bat speed and more bat control?

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      • Its tough to be 6-3 in this game if your swing is wide. He gets extension pretty early in it. That type of swing generates tons of power but you need to be really strong.

        The best for him is yet to come. He is going to continue to get major league level strength training. His confidence will grow as his bat speed gets those small gains.

        If the Astros can stay patient I feel confident that Cam Smith will end up being the best part of that trade.

        As for the defense, it’s disappointing. But he had a total of 4 games in the outfield in his entire life before he was put out there in ST. He got burnt a few times going after balls he shouldn’t have. Then he got tentative and started letting up on things he should have stretched on. He took some bad angles. His arm is great but he also seemed tentative throwing – like he was in no rush to get the ball back in. But he also had a spectacular robbing of a homerun this year that no one else on the field would have made.

        His defense isn’t like his hitting. Getting stronger is going to naturally increase aspects of his motor as a hitter that will lead to better bat speed and control and make it easier for him to adjust. Nothing about getting stronger is going to help him become a better defender. He has to figure that one out in his head. If he has the work ethic, he will become a gold glover. It’s in there. If he doesn’t we will be talking about his bad angles and bad choices 3 years from now.

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      • That is all interesting discussion about Cam. Bottomline – he has tons of talent, but both at the bat and in the field he needs to improve.

        I kind of agree that he seems to swing super hard at everything. I don’t see him lightening up to make contact with 2 strikes. His BAbip was .320 in 2025 and sunk to .240 in 2026 which would tell you he hit in a lot less luck this time around.

        He needs to raise that average, .210 BA is ridiculously low for someone with his talent and the .279 OBP is way too low too. His walk % went down a bit this year.

        His fielding? Did he do better as a rookie just going on instinct and now is being more tentative because he had “learned” more going into his second season and was thinking too much?

        I think he could be a great player, but he has to make strides this third season to prove it to me.

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      • I’ll say one thing in regards to Cam and his defense. He’s had so many guys next to him out there in center. And it’s got to be hard to feel 100% comfortable going after a ball in the gap at times.

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      • I’m a broken record but I think the problem has been the coaching. Cam and Altuve both frustrated me because physically you could see both are gifted (in different ways) and weren’t taking advantage of what the other team was giving them. What would probably benefit us the most is for the Brewers to win it all and front offices go into the winter trying to copy their style of offense.

        I agree with dave’s thought on not having a stable CF out there. Cam might even be better in CF than the revolving door we have seen.

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      • Devin, I’d have to guess that Altuve is uncoachable at this point in time. It’s too bad, because he had some high OBP years. But he makes it easier and easier on pitchers these days. They don’t have to throw him strikes.

        And sometimes I wonder if Cam is a good student or not. He did not have to battle his way to ML ball.

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    • sargeh, that new(est) wave marketing stuff is in its infancy. Baseball is being sold to new generations. Reality is that guys like you and me are not going to help the game reach new heights. So MLB is certainly not going to focus on getting more seniors into the park. That’s fine for me though. We’ve had our day. But the Savanah Banana’s sold 3.4 million tickets to their 2026 World tour. They had 4.2 million seat lottery requests.

      As the serious old school baseball fan dies off, MLB is going to have to keep updating their product to sell to baseballs newest fans. And I’m sure they’re watching those Banana folks closely.

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  7. I know it sounds weird from the guy who writes these posts and lives in a suburb of this city, but I really don’t care what kind of giveaways and promotions they do at Daikin because I don’t go to the games anymore.

    I still watch parts of almost every game, but the cost of parking, tickets, food etc. plus traffic, some dicey walking to my parking space and getting home late, etc. makes me sit back in the comfort of my home and pick and choose how much and when I watch.

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    • Dan, we have not gone to any games since probably 2017. I am commenting about the giveaways because I find them to be something that moves away from baseball all while bringing people into the stadium. The moving away from baseball is what I am concerned about. I know, it makes no sense.

      We do watch all the games though and cheer or fuss as needed. Indeed, parking is a mess, concession prices are high, and the walk back to the car is suspenseful.

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  8. Lot’s to chew on here. If I lived around Houston I might attend a few games a year but at the prices and and all the inconveniences that you have to endure it wouldn’t be very many. We have a high “A” team in out city so if I want to attend I do so occasionally with the prices being $8 -$15. I can park at a city garage for almost nothing or a lot and walk two blocks to the game. Concessions are still reasonable and there are those dollar dog nights. I’m surprised at how many people are in the stands at the Carolina Hockey ($50-$250) games, or the Panther football games ($66-$453) considering the cost. There were a lot of empty seats at Daikin for the game and I noticed that at the Braves 1st game there were a lot of empty seats. Your average fan is not going to want to drop $200 plus every time they want to see a game depending on where you sit. I may not renew my MLB package for next year as the price increases 10% each year. I can always watch the condensed game the next day.

    As for the future of the Astros, unless Crane decides he does not want to be a Jerry Jones clone I think each year we will consistently sink into further mediocrity. Here’s my thoughts (shared by many I think). Hire you a top notch GM and let them build you a competitive team. We have some players to build around and hopefully a better draft will bring in some worthwhile talent which we haven’t seen as of late. We’re probably stuck with Imai (2028), Walker (2027), and Javier (2027) but maybe Strong can revamp our pitching. I think there is potential there. As for the outfield, it’s a disaster so we need to concentrate our efforts there. I saw on one pod cast to go after Randy Arrozarena and a couple of others including some pitching.

    Anyway it will be interesting to see what’s in store for our team in the coming months and there’s always a chance of the “lockout” so a lot of this may be a moot point. Thanks Dan and Chip for bringing this altogether and to all of those that contribute. It can be frustrating but it’s also a lot of fun.

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  9. 1. The club was an older, slow team this past season. The pitching staff was a collection of cast-offs with a couple of studs. Espada used them to an over-excess.

    2. Give me the data heavy general manager. Oddly, in the past decades, I would have said give me the old-fashioned scout. However, Luhnow and Click have won me over with their Data stuff.

    3. Do NOT extend Espada. See my comment about the pitching staff above. What kind of manager? Tough choices. I’m perplexed. Maybe a combination of Nerd and stern?

    4. Imai will opt out because he will recognize that the lockout is upon us and he can earn money back in Japan and reset his US market for 2028.

    5. Jeremy is gone!!

    6. I would have traded Walker this past season at the trading deadline.  

    7. Stop raising ticket prices when top tier teams come in. Do a better job of coaching the players and demanding responsibility from them.

    8. Keep Alvarez, as he is an everyday player, and trade Hader. I am disappointed that the club traded Hader away to the Brewers earlier but now the club needs the monetary savings.

    9. Scream and scream some more.

    10. Crane for hiring Brown to begin with.

    Brown for being such an inept general manager.

    Espada for his mind-blowing decisions at times.

    Bagwell for his opinions given to Crane.

    The players. They did the best they could. Sadly, they were a collection of ineptitude.

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  10. The Astros drew an average of 35,003 fans per game in 2024. It was 30,519 in 2026. And of course we did not come close to filling the park against the White Sox this week. In fact, Chicago south siders helped fill empty seats, some selling for under 25.00.

    Seems like fans and pundits alike have heard enough from Jeff Bagwell, even as he remains incognito following another quick post season exit by our team.

    Guys like Chandler Rome and even Brian McTaggert have delivered more pointed critiques of just how mediocre the on field product has become. 790, the Astro flagship radio station has pounded the club in its talk segments.

    Our normally docile, remarkably polite Astro fans finally let out some of their frustrations this week right there in our home park.

    For the first time in my memory, Astro players actually let out their own frustrations on Astro fans.

    Quite a few Astro fans can see the quandary this club is in. There is no easy fix. It’s a major project at this point with a seemingly a rudderless ship.

    Is that why we have not heard from Jim Crane yet? No call to action. No think you for our support. Has he finally realized how far his franchise has fallen? Has he finally realized that another patch job won’t sell?

    I think the longer we don’t hear from him, better the chance real change actually happens this time.

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  11. My answers

    The Astros team is kind of like an old house that was rented out and the owner has only done some slap crap superficial things to. A little caulk here – a little paint there, but ignoring the underlying issues. They have gotten to this spot by not taking care of their issues and their championship window is closed

    I would like to see them bring in a techno GM on the cutting edge of everything. Is there another Luhnow out there? I doubt he works for Crane without reassurances of how his role will be allowed to flourish without the cabal looking over his shoulder.

    I am a little surprised that the team has not addressed Espada’s situation especially after saying they were letting Brown go early so he could get things in order and jump start his look for another job (BS in my book). I’m not even sure when Espada’s agreement runs out / ran out. Feels like they will allow the next GM to have a say. I would like the next manager to be kind of like Brent Strom is as a pitching coach – old school experience who can apply the new tools.

    My gut says that Imai will want out and go home – there is no financial reason for him to do this but this may be more about the embarrassment of this season and his discomfort with America and the Astros.

    I think the Astros should trade Jeremy Peña this off-season but who is making that trade for one season of Pena if the one season may never happen. Revisit this when/if there is a new CBA

    Same thing with Walker – maybe if the season begins he could go at the trade deadline when you owe him $7 million for the last couple months and you buy down some of that.

    If I could change one thing about the organization it would be for Crane to pick a strong GM candidate and let him do the job and the job may be to strip the house down to the studs.

    I would consider trading Yordan and Hader because this team so badly needs an infusion of young talent. It would make me sad because these are two of the best to come through here at those positions. Again it won’t happen until the labor situation is resolved.

    Bagwell in charge – I would smile and wait for the crash.

    My percentage split of blame – Crane – 50%/ Brown 20% / Bagwell 15% / Players – 10% / Espada – 5%

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    • If Alvarez did get traded, assuming for real talent to help a rebuild, there might be an added bonus. Altuve would no longer have to play second base.

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      • No doubt, but we’re stuck with Jose, and he needs to be off the field. And moving forward, I suspect Altuve becomes a part time player sooner than later. If 3000 happens it won’t be in Houston.

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    • The White Sox traded Garret Crochet to Boston for Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, Braden Montgomery, and another milb pitcher. Not only were they starters on the postseason roster, they combined to go 9-25 with 4 runs, 1 HR, 5 RBI against Houston in the two game series.

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    • I think the only time we saw what the team could really do was the short time when they had better starting pitching available – Hunter, Lambert, Javier, Wesneski, Pecko – but heading into the playoffs they ended up with game after game of short starts that ruined the bullpen.

      And their offense was so inconsistent – if Spence did not have a series to remember against the A’s – this team would have been sitting at home before the playoffs.

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