Now that the stumbling, bumbling Astros have squeezed into their eighth AL West division title in 10 seasons – the question has to be: what does this matchup look like?
As the worst division winner in the American League, the Astros will host the worst wild card team, the Chicago White Sox for all three games (if three are needed) in a best two-of-three matchup in the first round. Maybe they have appealed to the league to move their home games to West Sacramento….but that would only help if they also swapped the White Sox pitching staff for the A’s pitching staff. The games will all be at Daikin Park and will all start at 4 PM in the afternoon.
Playoff History
- The White Sox famously swept the Astros in four excruciating games in the ‘Stros first World Series appearance ever. The Astros could not quite catch them in game 1, blew leads in Games 2 and 3 (losing in the 14th inning in Game 3 – Geoff Blum how could you do that to us) and going for 0 for 11 in a 1-0 Game 4 loss.
- The Astros rolled through the White Sox 3-1 in the 2021 ALDS on the way to their World Series loss to the Braves.
How do these teams look?
Chicago White Sox
84-78 (Second place in the AL Central – 1 game behind the Cleveland Guardindians)
The White Sox had a 5-1/2 game lead on August 16, but went 19-20 down the stretch to lose the division by a game.
Offense
.236 BA (11th in AL) / .320 OBP (2nd) / .726 OPS (3rd) / 776 runs (1st) / 211 HRs (3rd)/ 589 walks (1st) / 1494 Ks (3rd worst) / 93 SB (T-7th)
Starting Pitching
39 wins (13th in AL) / 4.60 ERA (13th) / 674.2 Innings (15th) / 1.34 WHIP (12th) / .253 BAA (12th) / 247 walks (3rd best) / 621 Ks (15th) / 93 HRs (T-least)
Relief Pitching
45 wins (1st in AL) / 3.70 ERA (5th) / 766 innings (1st) /1.29 WHIP (8th) / .233 BAA (6th best) / 41 saves (10th) / 30 blown saves* (T-2nd most) / 324 walks (worst) / 716 Ks (1st) / 87 HRs (5th)
* Blown saves in this context includes leads lost by the bullpen in any inning – not just in the 9th inning.
Houston Astros
81-81 (First place in the AL West – 1 game ahead of the Texas Rangers)
Astros won 5 of 7 against the White Sox in the regular season including 2 of 3 in Chicago and 3 of 4 in Houston in late Aug. / early Sept.
The Astros were down 6 games on June 2 in their division and then four games down as late as July 19. They then went up by three games on September 11, but fell a game behind last on September 20 before grabbing the division on the last day of the season.
Offense
.242 BA (7th in AL) / .315 OBP (10th) / .732 OPS (1st / 734 runs (5th) / 226 HRs (1st)/ 530 walks (7th) / 1343 Ks (9th worst) / 50 SB (15th)
Starting Pitching
45 wins (6th in AL) / 4.81 ERA (14th) / 774.2 Innings (12th) / 1.40 WHIP (14th) / .243 BAA (7th) / 378 walks (15th) / 749 Ks (9th) / 113 HRs (5th most)
Relief Pitching
36 wins (T-6th in AL) / 4.08 ERA (9th) / 662.1 innings (3rd) /1.27 WHIP (6th) / .231 BAA (5th best) / 49 saves (3rd) / 14 blown saves (least) / 272 walks (7th) / 662 Ks (3rd) / 91 HRs (3rd)
Offensive Comparison
In most categories the White Sox and Astros are fairly similar. Their hitting in the run scored and home run departments were both quite good. The White Sox rode their top notch on base percentage, while the Astros better batting average and excellent slugging gave them their edge.
The White Sox were Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde in coming in third in walks while fanning the most of any AL team. The Astros were more middle of the road in both categories.
The White Sox spread the wealth around without having any one player with dominant statistics:
- The Sox have three players with 30+ homers, including rookie 1B Munetaka Murakami (35), 3B Miguel Vargas (33) and SS Colson Montgomery (31) while the Astros have Yordan Alvarez (42 HRs), Christian Walker (29), Isaac Paredes (25) and Jeremy Pena (22) and Cam Smith (21) have 20 or more HRs. (Note – could we go back in a time machine and give Imai’s money to Murakami?)
- Vargas leads them with 93 RBIs, while Montgomery (87), LF Andrew Benintendi (78), Murakami (77), 2B Chase Meldroth (63) and CF Tristan Peters (56) all have more than 50 RBIs. The Astros have two players with more than Vargas’ 93 RBIs with Alvarez (106), and Paredes (94), while four more have 50 or more – Walker (87), Pena (56), Cam Smith (56) and Altuve (50).
- The White Sox are more of a threat to steal, which has been a problem for the Astros all year.
Starting Pitching Comparison
The starting pitching for both clubs has been a weak point, which is unusual in playoff teams, but also points to why these teams are at or are close to .500 this season.
Looking at those starting stats a few things come across. The White Sox starters have pitched around 100 innings pitched less than the next team on the list. The Astros pitchers walks are killing them (as anyone who watches the team knows).
The White Sox are showing left-handed reliever Hagen Smith as their starter for Tuesday’s game, while the Astros counter with right-handed workhorse A.J. Blubaugh. Not sure when is the last time both teams started a playoff series like this. For games 2 and 3, both teams have scheduled the mysterious TBDs as their starters. If you guessed that these games might be started for the Astros (if both are needed) by Hunter Brown and Hayden Wisneski, you might be right.
Sean Burke (11-7, 3.34 ERA) is likely to be a Game 2 or 3 pitcher, but after that it is unclear. Anthony Kay pitched Sunday so he would seem to be out. Erik Fedde and Davis Martin went less than three in their last outings. David Sandlin had a good last outing but poor stats overall this season. One of the reasons the White Sox starters have so few innings seems to be a liberal use of openers this year.
Relief Pitching Comparison
Both bullpens have had better results than the starters this season. Some of the White Sox numbers (wins, walks, Ks) are inflated because they threw 100 more innings than the most innings by any other AL team. It feels like the Astros’ bullpen is much, much better at holding leads, especially if it gets to the very back of the bullpen.
One of the big questions for this series is whether Steven Okert, the Astros extremely effective set up man, returns from injury. Obviously, Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu anchor the very back end of the pen and Okert with Blubaugh and new phenom Miguel Ullola could give them a strong bridge to the end game (when they are not being used to start the game).
Jordan Leasure is called the Sox closer in baseball-reference.com, but he is out after TJ surgery in August. Mike Vasil was one of their most effective relievers, but he is also out for the season. Brandon Elsert (3-8, 2 saves, 4.39 ERA), Steven Wilson (2-2, 2 saves, 3.42 ERA), and Tyler Gilbert (4-2, 1 save, 3.88 ERA) have gotten into the most games this year. Grant Taylor (2-4, 6 Saves, 4.91) has been pitching in higher-leverage games lately and has two multi-inning saves in his last 5 games.
Who has the edge in this series? I would say the Astros playing at home should have that edge, but as we have seen before, these series can be over in a flash or by the time I get in the car to head home. Pray for the best.
34 responses to “Astros Vs. Chisox: Wild Card Round”
Did a little sleuthing. Only 15 of the 26 players on the Opening Day roster are also on the playoff roster.
These 11 started the season with us but won’t be on the roster for the White Sox series: Carlos Correa, Jake Meyers, Brice Matthews, Mike Burrows, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Roddery Muñoz, Steven Okert, Christian Roa, Kai-Wei Teng, and Ryan Weiss.
The pitching staff turned over the most. Only two of the five Opening Day starters (Hunter Brown and Tatsuya Imai) and three of the eight relievers (Bryan Abreu, AJ Blubaugh, and Bryan King) are on both rosters.
Remember Roddery Muñoz? Me neither. He was a Rule 5 pick who made the Opening Day bullpen because Hader, Sousa, and De Los Santos all started the year on the IL.
AJ Blubaugh was one of our long relievers back in March. Today he starts Game 1 of a playoff series. Peter Lambert, Hayden Wesneski, Miguel Ullola, Logan VanWey, and Josh Hendrickson weren’t on the Opening Day roster at all, and Lucas Spence is starting in center field.
Eight of the 13 pitchers from Opening Day are gone, and this team still won the West. Who gets the credit for that: Dana Brown, Joe Espada, or a bunch of guys nobody had heard of in March?
One other tidbit: Despite being a perennial playoff team (missing a season here or there, yes), 13 of the players on the Astros’ playoff roster have NO playoff experience. That tells a big story right there.
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Too bad Okert is not ready to go yet.
I’m a bit surprised they included Imai, but now I’m reading Pecko is not 100%. Losing Ethan does not help.
Imai might get zero outs and blow up a game, or, throw 4 shut out innings. Really high risk, high reward. And he could be slated to pitch today.
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Chip – nice summary of an in-season apple turn-over crisp. Usually you go through this much turmoil and you are looking at a 100 loss season.
Daveb – I’m glad this is a best of 3 game series – I don’t know if we have enough pitching to get thru a best of 5 or 7….
They confirmed something on the radio this morning – this is the first playoff game to ever start two relievers.
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If Jose Altuve has a series left in him, it’s this one. He’s got an .804 OPS at home. Against lefties, the OPS is .829.
And he still shows a little bit of life in high leverage situations with a .746 OPS.
12 of his 16 homers have been hit at home.
That’s pretty much where the good news stops though.
With RISP he’s hitting .220 with a .621 OPS.
He’s 2-15 with the bases loaded.
He’s hitting .233 with a .627 OPS when batting clean up.
As an aside, he’s got an .824 OPS when leading off. One might consider putting Pena in the 2 slot and Yordan 3rd and Paredes at clean up. It’s got to be harder to justify walking Yordan as often when he’s hitting third. But we can only speculate and leave those though decisions to the experts.
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Curious about Imai.
In August/September, he’s pitched in 8 games, all relief…18 IP…8 H…4 ER…25/11 K/BB rate. 2.00 ERA.
Yes, how many of those games were in high-leverage situations, but is it simply trying to find out the right situation? Is he a situational pitcher now? Can he help the club in the playoffs? Is Joe savvy enough to know which situation?
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Its still hard to trust 11 walks in 18 IP.
My guess, he is there to suck up 3 innings of already decided baseball either/or, though if its our lead, he still has to throw a lot of strikes.
Unless we see extra innings its hard to imagine he will be in there with the game still in balance.
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The lineup
Pena SS
Alvarez DH
Paredes 3B
Altuve 2B
Diaz C
Walker 1B
Spence CF
Smith RF
Trammell LF (I hope the lefty starter is out before they get to Trammell)
Blubaugh pitching
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ugh
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Simon, replace the “h” with “ly” and that pretty much says it all.
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it’s like 1997-2001 all over again.
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I can’t help but think that CC and JV wouldn’t stand for this.
And it seems 44, great as he is, beyond reproach as he is, is pressing too much, desperate as he is to make something happen.
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Simon Davy –
I keep getting those 1997-2001 vibes too. Short series – all afternoon starts – the game well on the way to being done by the time I’m home – the offense coming up short.
The weird start time – the bullpen game combined to make me feel off balance.
Do we even want this team to go to the next round if they are struggling this hard to put 3 starters out there?
I am sad – I think the window for this team is almost all the way closed.
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Dan, I agree…if you can’t run three starters out there in a THREE-GAME playoff series, something is off. Then again, the White Sox did the same thing to start the playoffs. Hagen Smith had pitched in only 18 games this season (a total of 28 IP).
This is major leagues, gosh darnett!
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Two teams moving in opposite directions. The Sox are a pretty solid young group, certainly with some more holes to fill, but in comparison, we’ve got a daunting array of issues. We all know it.
Yesterday, first inning, a small microcosm. We’ve had a hard time turning double plays lately. Walker has been solid defensively. But his arm is shot, he can’t throw. He couldn’t make that throw back to second base for the second out in the first inning. Blaubaugh needed it badly. We should have had two out and nobody on base. That error set the tempo for the game. That’s why this team is 81 and 82. We’re not good enough at this point in time.
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I just read the overnight Athletic column by Rome. I wish I could share it. If quoted accurately, both Walker and Sousa were quite insulted by the fans booing. And maybe other players too. Walker has somehow become the go to guy for clubhouse quotes. He’s candid. I’m getting tired of hearing from him. Sousa should probably look for a new place to play next year. He has not earned the right to blast the fans. Both guys obviously have thin skin. But both guys are also part of the problem. Both guys are not good enough to play on a championship caliber roster. They should have just said we need to play better and gone off to the shower.
The 34,000 people that did show up are probably pretty reliable Astro fans. Normally remarkably polite, this Astro crowd let out their dissatisfaction all day long. I’m sure much of the frustration was meant for Jim Crane, Jeff Bagwell, Joe Espada and our former GM. Hopefully Jim Crane was both pissed off and embarrassed yesterday. He needs to be.
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I don’t want to doom and gloom. We were outpitched in a game. With our staff it’s going to happen. The scary part is since the inception of this 3 game WC series the winner of game 1 is 15-1! This does not seem like a competent enough team to make that 15-2. But you have to feel pretty good knowing Hunter is tonight. The offense is going to need to respond better tonight.
It was a great decision to PH Velasquez. That worked out. It was a good matchup, right card, and he won that battle. What I don’t understand is why Loperfido over Wade, who could have had a much better chance of seeing 1B than Velasquez against Taylor in both ABs. The last one was crucial. They just needed to get that runner to 1B, put Pena up as the tying run and Taylor was running on fumes. It would have put him close to 60 pitches, he was down around 97 at that point, and Jeremy handles velocity anyway. Instead he probably didn’t think Loperfido was any better a choice right there than Velasquez (I would agree with that) and was forced to stick with him. So why even carry Loperfido? Did someone convince him that maybe a 9th inning defensive sub is more important than the lefty OBP option?
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More thoughts
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Pretty impressive, 15-1 in favor of the team winning game one.
Pretty unimpressive, losing the last 8 PS games played at home. That seems to be a bit of an anomaly though. If Hunter can give them 6 innings and leave with a lead, then the Astros should win game 2.
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And I’m not going to the assign the blame to Joe at this point. It was another team loss, from owner on down. Steven, no doom and gloom here, but regardless of what happens in this series, the organization pretty much needs a top to bottom overhaul at this point, and I’m not just talking about what’s happening on the field.
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I’m not happy with a number of Espada’s choices, but if the players had gone out and executed he would have looked just fine. He didn’t give up a HR on an 0-2 pitch. He didn’t take a third strike representing the tying run and turn to the umpire to complain despite it being an obviously correct call. I would have rather saved Abreu and Hader, but they did their jobs throwing 11 and 10 pitches. It’s not like we had someone else to throw out there. Again, they did their job and we brought the potential tying run to the plate in the 8th and then got a runner on in the ninth but couldn’t do anything. Worst case scenario his players come to the park today feeling confident he will use them and not overlook them.
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one thing though on Joe, Brian King had no business being in the game. His era for the last few weeks is +8. He sure wasn’t managing as if this was game 7 in the World Series. And if I had been there I’d have been booing too. Wow turned it off halfway through the second inning.
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The lineup is changed beginning with Yordan in LF
Peña SS
Alvarez LF
Paredes DH
Altuve 2B
Diaz C
Walker 1B
Spence CF
Smith RF
Allen 3B
With Hunter Brown on the mound
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The Astros season is melting down in the first inning – this is like the WC against Detroit two seasons ago.
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We look like a middle school team. I’m glad we made the playoffs because it means we finished ahead of the Arlington Rangers and the Mariners. But we are in no way a playoff team. This roster needs a severe overhaul if we don’t want to become totally irrelevant.
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I think a Sox fan could have flown from Love to Hobby today, watch their team win in Houston, then fly back in time to make last call in their favorite Southside bar. That would be a good beer.
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daveb – I think you meant from Midway to Hobby (Or O’Hare to Hobby) – but I get your drift.
I think we could all use a beer – good or bad
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Dan, yes! And those back and forth commuters might have gotten a 25.00 seat today.
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What a disappointment. I thought the team might slide into the division series. Well.
I suppose Mr. Crane will announce, tomorrow, that the entire coaching staff is gone.
I was gleeful to see Altuve hit that playoff homerun. It might be his last one. I am sure that there is going to be a lockout and if it is season long, the team will not get back into the playoffs for 2028. Altuve will be looking to retire by then.
Abreu will be gone as he is now a free agent and will sign elsewhere for higher money. He will not be tendered. Pena will be traded, hopefully for a haul. Perhaps taking a season off will bring a better outlook.
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Sarge, so much to discuss, but not tonight. One thing though. As much as Jose has done for the franchise, I think we’re stuck with him.
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That was a let down, but losing to Detroit and missing the postseason altogether last year were bigger disappointments. Walker and Sousa have all winter long to get over being booed at least. I agree with Jeff we didn’t look like a playoff team. Once we get back to other topics, Manfred has been pushing for expansion to 2 markets before he leaves office. I feel like there are too many teams in the playoffs already and extra teams may water it down further.
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On subjective matters – I’m a guy that carries the same disappointment in a 81 season and 2 game sweep in the playoffs as a I would be if they had 87 wins and missed. I am equally disappointed in how it ended. But I’m also never really happy unless you win the whole damn thing. You have to be like the Yankees. No division title banners. Because that’s not the goal.
Interesting offseason coming. All we get to do is watch. Does Pena get traded? What about Isaac, who is in the same situation? Can anyone come in and convince Crane of a reset, or does Crane have to see this team go the way the Grocer did before committing to a youth movement? Does that condemn this team to another year of mediocrity? Is mediocrity a better option than losing 95 games next year? Or are you ready for a mini version of 2011-2014, stockpile some higher in the round picks, make a few shrewd trades, and be ready for a phoenix from the ashes rise in 2031? Does a work stoppage keep them from doing anything but an abbreviated spring training and no time to find a GM much less make moves? Does that condemn this roster to return mostly intact to watch the same roster give a similar result?
And I’m sure, we will spend the entire offseason spitballing these fascinating ideas off each other – we know full well we have no control – and readily admit the people actually making these decisions should be and likely will be smarter than us about it – but the spitballing is the fun part.
At least the Astros have something. They have assets. We won’t be arguing the merits of Jake Marisnick versus Robbie Grossman. There is something there. What does Crane do with it?
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I didn’t watch the first half of the game yesterday. Hunter Brown, with a little bit of help, would have been out of that first inning with no harm done. Yordan had a tough play to make in left, but it’s a catch that has to be made. Jose, with no first step in those 36 year old legs could not make a play on a grounder to his right. Nick booted a grounder he had to make a play on. And it got worse when Spence made a bad throw and a catchable ball dropped between him and Cam. 4 runs.
And then the Astros got three back before they played the last 5 innings with 1 hit and 1 walk. It sure was not simply a Hunter Brown loss. It was just another team loss by a mediocre group.
One quote by Joe yesterday: “As long as Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez are here, we’re a damn good team”.
Maybe Joe really believes that. Maybe that’s why Jose bats clean up and plays second base every night. The real issue is that with or without Joe Espada, Altuve is going to have to play somewhere. And probably full time.
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Defense was costly. Isaac doesn’t make a critical play in game 1 due to his limited range that let the game get further away – so game 2 we get Allen at 3B, who then promptly has the error out the gate, and then later, when the score was still close, flubs up charging a bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd, taking away any option of getting a force at 3B. Not sure it mattered as the next hitter hit a 3 run shot, but the fact that he charged, realized his mistake, went to go back to 3rd, and realized he was WAY to far off so he just stops, got ole Steve Stone tickled. He seemed almost bemused, if not befuddled, by how Nick played that one. Between that and his inability to get a bunt down then just getting flamed on a 97 MPH fastball at his shoulders, he did not have a good series.
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Yeah Steven, defense was costly in the first inning of games 163 and 164. Not a good look from a veteran, or old, banged up club.
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