Astros Vs. Chisox: Wild Card Round

Now that the stumbling, bumbling Astros have squeezed into their eighth AL West division title in 10 seasons – the question has to be: what does this matchup look like?

As the worst division winner in the American League, the Astros will host the worst wild card team, the Chicago White Sox for all three games (if three are needed) in a best two-of-three matchup in the first round. Maybe they have appealed to the league to move their home games to West Sacramento….but that would only help if they also swapped the White Sox pitching staff for the A’s pitching staff. The games will all be at Daikin Park and will all start at 4 PM in the afternoon.

Playoff History

• The White Sox famously swept the Astros in four excruciating games in the ‘Stros first World Series appearance ever. The Astros could not quite catch them in game 1, blew leads in Games 2 and 3 (losing in the 14^th inning in Game 3 – Geoff Blum how could you do that to us) and going for 0 for 11 in a 1-0 Game 4 loss.
• The Astros rolled through the White Sox 3-1 in the 2021 ALDS on the way to their World Series loss to the Braves.

How do these teams look?

Chicago White Sox

84-78 (Second place in the AL Central – 1 game behind the Cleveland Guardindians)

The White Sox had a 5-1/2 game lead on August 16, but went 19-20 down the stretch to lose the division by a game.

Offense

.236 BA (11^th in AL) / .320 OBP (2^nd) / .726 OPS (3^rd) / 776 runs (1^st) / 211 HRs (3^rd)/ 589 walks (1^st) / 1494 Ks (3^rd worst) / 93 SB (T-7^th)

Starting Pitching

39 wins (13^th in AL) / 4.60 ERA (13^th) / 674.2 Innings (15^th) / 1.34 WHIP (12^th) / .253 BAA (12^th) / 247 walks (3^rd best) / 621 Ks (15^th) / 93 HRs (T-least)

Relief Pitching

45 wins (1^st in AL) / 3.70 ERA (5^th) / 766 innings (1^st) /1.29 WHIP (8^th) / .233 BAA (6^th best) /  41 saves (10^th) / 30 blown saves* (T-2^nd most) / 324 walks (worst) / 716 Ks (1^st) / 87 HRs (5^th)

* Blown saves in this context includes leads lost by the bullpen in any inning – not just in the 9^th inning.

Houston Astros

81-81 (First place in the AL West – 1 game ahead of the Texas Rangers)

Astros won 5 of 7 against the White Sox in the regular season including 2 of 3 in Chicago and 3 of 4 in Houston in late Aug. / early Sept.

The Astros were down 6 games on June 2 in their division and then four games down as late as July 19. They then went up by three games on September 11, but fell a game behind last on September 20 before grabbing the division on the last day of the season.

Offense

.242 BA (7^th in AL) / .315 OBP (10^th) / .732 OPS (1^st  / 734 runs (5^th) / 226 HRs (1^st)/ 530 walks (7^th) / 1343 Ks (9th worst) / 50 SB (15^th)

Starting Pitching

45 wins (6^th in AL) / 4.81 ERA (14^th) / 774.2 Innings (12^th) / 1.40 WHIP (14^th) / .243 BAA (7^th) / 378 walks (15^th) / 749 Ks (9^th) / 113 HRs (5^th most)

Relief Pitching

36 wins (T-6^th in AL) / 4.08 ERA (9^th) / 662.1 innings (3^rd) /1.27 WHIP (6^th) / .231 BAA (5^th best) /  49 saves (3^rd) / 14 blown saves (least) / 272 walks (7^th) / 662 Ks (3^rd) / 91 HRs (3^rd)

Offensive Comparison

In most categories the White Sox and Astros are fairly similar. Their hitting in the run scored and home run departments were both quite good. The White Sox rode their top notch on base percentage, while the Astros better batting average and excellent slugging gave them their edge.

The White Sox were Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde in coming in third in walks while fanning the most of any AL team. The Astros were more middle of the road in both categories.

The White Sox spread the wealth around without having any one player with dominant statistics:

• The Sox have three players with 30+ homers, including rookie 1B Munetaka Murakami (35), 3B Miguel Vargas (33) and SS Colson Montgomery (31) while the Astros have Yordan Alvarez (42 HRs), Christian Walker (29), Isaac Paredes (25) and Jeremy Pena (22) and Cam Smith (21) have 20 or more HRs. (Note – could we go back in a time machine and give Imai’s money to Murakami?)
• Vargas leads them with 93 RBIs, while Montgomery (87), LF Andrew Benintendi (78), Murakami (77), 2B Chase Meldroth (63) and CF Tristan Peters (56) all have more than 50 RBIs.  The Astros have two players with more than Vargas’ 93 RBIs with Alvarez (106), and Paredes (94), while four more have 50 or more – Walker (87), Pena (56), Cam Smith (56) and Altuve (50).
• The White Sox are more of a threat to steal, which has been a problem for the Astros all year.

Starting Pitching Comparison

The starting pitching for both clubs has been a weak point, which is unusual in playoff teams, but also points to why these teams are at or are close to .500 this season.

Looking at those starting stats a few things come across. The White Sox starters have pitched around 100 innings pitched less than the next team on the list. The Astros pitchers walks are killing them (as anyone who watches the team knows).

The White Sox are showing left-handed reliever Hagen Smith as their starter for Tuesday’s game, while the Astros counter with right-handed workhorse A.J. Blubaugh. Not sure when is the last time both teams started a playoff series like this. For games 2 and 3, both teams have scheduled the mysterious TBDs as their starters. If you guessed that these games might be started for the Astros (if both are needed) by Hunter Brown and Hayden Wisneski, you might be right.

Sean Burke (11-7, 3.34 ERA) is likely to be a Game 2 or 3 pitcher, but after that it is unclear. Anthony Kay pitched Sunday so he would seem to be out. Erik Fedde and Davis Martin went less than three in their last outings. David Sandlin had a good last outing but poor stats overall this season. One of the reasons the White Sox starters have so few innings seems to be a liberal use of openers this year.

Relief Pitching Comparison

Both bullpens have had better results than the starters this season. Some of the White Sox numbers (wins, walks, Ks) are inflated because they threw 100 more innings than the most innings by any other AL team. It feels like the Astros’ bullpen is much, much better at holding leads, especially if it gets to the very back of the bullpen.

One of the big questions for this series is whether Steven Okert, the Astros extremely effective set up man, returns from injury. Obviously, Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu anchor the very back end of the pen and Okert with Blubaugh and new phenom Miguel Ullola could give them a strong bridge to the end game (when they are not being used to start the game).

Jordan Leasure is called the Sox closer in baseball-reference.com, but he is out after TJ surgery in August. Mike Vasil was one of their most effective relievers, but he is also out for the season. Brandon Elsert (3-8, 2 saves, 4.39 ERA), Steven Wilson (2-2, 2 saves, 3.42 ERA), and Tyler Gilbert (4-2, 1 save, 3.88 ERA) have gotten into the most games this year. Grant Taylor (2-4, 6 Saves, 4.91) has been pitching in higher-leverage games lately and has two multi-inning saves in his last 5 games.

Who has the edge in this series? I would say the Astros playing at home should have that edge, but as we have seen before, these series can be over in a flash or by the time I get in the car to head home. Pray for the best.