We’ve beaten it to death, but the Astros are 69-68 and seemingly headed nowhere. I know what that looks like. It looks like they’re treading water, hanging on for dear life and ready to call it a season. The GM is already out the door, and the manager’s pink slip is sitting on Jim Crane’s desk.
But hang on.
When you look at the potential AL bracket, the Astros may have a path to the ALCS. Daveb and Sarge just spit out their coffee, Steven’s rolling his eyes, and Devin and Zanuda started shaking their heads! Everyone will be asking Dan why he handed Chip the keys today!
But the path may be clearer than you think, so hear me out.
If the playoffs started today, Houston would be the three-seed as the AL West division winner. Tampa Bay and the White Sox, as the top two seeds, would get first-round byes. The Astros would draw Cleveland in a best-of-three Wild Card Series, with all three games played at Daikin Park.
The Astros are 4-2 against Cleveland in 2026, winning two of three in both the April road series and the June home series. In the Wild Card round, the higher seed hosts every game. Cleveland would come into Daikin Park knowing they’ve already lost four of six to this team, with 40,000 people (do you think fans would come out?) in the stands who’ve spent all year wondering if there would be playoff baseball in Houston.
About that rotation. Peter Lambert has been the steadiest arm in the organization all season (who’d have said that back in March?). He’s 8-6 with a 3.66 ERA and holding opponents to two runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts. Hunter Brown missed two months with a shoulder strain, but since coming back, he’s posted a 3.18 ERA over his last six starts, and he threw seven shutout innings against the White Sox in late July. Hayden Wesneski came back from Tommy John surgery and has gone 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six fairly solid starts.
Arguably, all three have pitched well enough to win short-series games at home.
Are there concerns? Are there holes in the theory? Of course, yes and amen. Brown’s walk rate is up this year, and Wesneski’s arm has less than 40 innings of big-league work since the surgery. If Espada needs a different option for Game 3, the cupboard is thin. But you can build a short-term rotation around three guys who can go out and give you 5-6 competitive innings, and right now Lambert, Brown, and Wesneski can do that.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
I know, I know. Stay with me.
Win the Wild Card round, and Houston would draw the second-seeded White Sox in the ALDS. That’s a best-of-five series, with Games 1 and 2 in Chicago and Games 3 and 4 back at Daikin Park. The Astros have already taken two of three from Chicago this year, and Houston hosts the Sox in a four-game series starting tonight, oddly enough, with Lambert, Brown, and Wesneski starting the first three.
In the playoffs, your top three starters cover Games 1 through 3. For Games 4 and 5, Brown (or the Game 1 starter) could theoretically come back for Game 4, or you piece it together with a spot start and the bullpen (yikes!). In a five-game series, the team with three reliable starters has the advantage, and Houston’s top three are showing signs they could hold their own in October.
Don’t overcomplicate this. Two rounds. Beat Cleveland at home, beat the White Sox in five, and you’re playing in the ALCS.
Look, I’m not calling this team a major contender by any stretch of the imagination.
They just don’t have the horses, as we all know. Lambert was pitching in Japan last year, and Brown is still working his way back from a shoulder strain. Wesneski is six starts into his comeback from Tommy John. Nobody is putting any of those names on a Cy Young ballot this year.
But the playoff format rewards division winners, and right now Houston is one. The third seed gets home field in the first round and draws the weakest wild card team. You avoid Tampa Bay entirely until the ALCS. And, if one of the other guys knocks off Tampa Bay in the division round, suddenly the ALCS starts in Houston on October 12. Just sayin’.
It doesn’t matter that you’re a near .500 team. What does matter is whether you win the division, which the Astros still have to do for any of this to work.
So before you write off October, look at the bracket and count the wins. Ask yourself whether a team with Lambert, Brown, and Wesneski in a short series at Daikin Park is really as big a longshot as that season suggests.
And don’t forget all the talk of a Carlos Correa return.
Okay, your turn, as Dan says. Shoot me down if you wish, but the road to the ALCS runs through two teams the Astros have already beaten this year. I’m certainly not guaranteeing anything, and I’m not even laying out this scenario as a prediction.
I’m just telling you the path is there.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
21 responses to “The Astros’ road to the ALCS”
Good morning everyone. Chip, you won’t get any real arguments from me. We are mired in mediocrity. And looking at the West and Central, everyone thrives on that same mediocrity. These are two cockroach divisions. The Astros don’t deserve that title to themselves.
I didn’t watch the game yesterday. The PGA was more compelling. But I have to recognize Ethan Pecko, I think a guy that has a 5th starter ceiling, maybe. Could he become a younger version of Wesneski? Both guys like to give up the long ball. They do battle though. In spite of his shortcomings, he gave up those two quick dingers in the first yesterday and then got the Astros 15 outs and just one more run. We have several guys that can’t seen to do that. And I guess Imai really has been put under Double Secret Probation by Dean Crane. Maybe Terminal Secret Probation.
Sarge and I spoke briefly about Joe sitting Cam Smith. And Joe sure made a fortuitous move yesterday in having LaMont hit for Cam in the 6th. Heck, that homer got Ethan his first MLB win! But Sarge, after looking at splits, Cam had an excellent August in comparison to every other guy we sent to the outfield regularly. So on further review, I think we’ve just got to trot Cam out there most nights and just hope he finds something we hope is in there.
Last night I heard a brief clip from Dana’s first post firing interview that was apparently broadcast on MLB radio and then published in some form in Chron.com. I have no access to that. Dana was very diplomatic though. But he said that he pretty much knew the job was going to be tough even a couple of years ago. Per Dana, Crane does not want division titles. He wants World Series wins. Brown noted the loss of free agents, the lack of a minor league system, aging athletes and some trades that did not work out very well as a combination of issues the Astros have just not been able to overcome. Now Dana was responsible for a lot of that stuff, butI don’t think, based on all I’ve read lately that Crane is spending money where he needs to, all the way down to scouting.
But heck, we’ve all been complaining about the same stuff. If Jim Crane really thinks the World Series is the goal for every season here in Houston, then he stinks at judging talent on the field. He’s wrong. He needs to take a sabbatical and go study the Dodgers for a couple of years, and then be prepared to spend the family fortune. And then he’d still fail. Get someone to run your baseball organization.
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There isn’t really much to argue with. The entire league is mediocre. The reality is there is a path all the way to a WS beat down at the hands of one of the actual 3 best teams in baseball.
And it’s exactly what I was afraid of. Backing into a division title. Maybe even winning series, or two! Affirmation that the Bagwell way is working. And continuing to kick the can down the road.
I would believe in the future of this team if I thought Hunter and Jeremy were long term parts of it. Yordan might be if he doesn’t hire Boras in the next 24 months. I like Cam’s tools, but results are spotty at best. And for some reason, when he did get hot, our manager inexplicably falls in love with the lefty/righty platoon and starts sitting him. He probably has access to some metric I don’t that is informing that decision, but to the casual viewer it doesn’t make a ton of sense.
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Driving in this morning, the fellows at 95.7 FM The Fan (which has been KILT 610 AM forever) – reminded us that if the Astros sweep their 4 game series with the White Sox – they will be the #2 seed in the AL by Thursday. I would not bet the farm on that happening, but….it demonstrates how crazy this season is going.
Yes, IFFFFFFF the Astros make the playoffs they could go to the ALCS or even as Steven is saying the WS (he’s not predicting it – just saying it is possible). Or they could fall off and not make it at all. It is looking better lately only because the Astros’ competition the Rangers and Mariners have been playing blah too.
Think about what you are saying here Chip about the starting pitching. The three pitchers you are hanging your hat on are :
(Note except for one 9 run start, Lambert mostly has pitched in bad luck but has been a bit more hittable lately).
Now maybe Mr. Ethan Pecko will turn into another Wesneski as daveb said. Maybe Brent Strom will wave his magic metrics wand on Mike Burrows. Maybe Cristian Javier will have a 2022 renewal.
Maybe.
I think they need 4 starters for the playoffs, but sure they could scrape by with 3.
I just don’t know what to think about this team. Every time they make me feel better, they turn around and make me feel despair. Every time I feel despair, they turn around and make me feel better.
It is weird to say this about someone who is leading the world in so many categories, but I do believe that Yordan will get hot again from the power side. He had been hitting a homer about once every three games for the first 107 games and now he has 2 in the last 28 games. With that type of player, they can make quite a bit of hay down the stretch.
I’ve always believed that once a team gets into the playoffs anything can happen. And it can happen for the Astros. I just hope they don’t wear out all their pitching horses getting there.
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And thanks for picking up the yoke on this one, Chip.
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Let’s be clear. This is not a commentary on how good or bad this team is. It’s not a commentary on Joe, Dana or even Crane. It’s not even a commentary on whether they can win the division.
It’s just an outline of a path that is in front of this team (and several others) for that matter.
The ol’ lawyer says ‘you take ’em as you find them’. And that’s how we find the Astros…today.
Enjoy the game tonight!
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Let’s be clear. Mine is a commentary on Crane. I don’t want to watch .500 talent until I’m too old to watch it.
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Yes, sir, agreed. I’ve made my commentary on Crane and I still believe he’s the main villain here.
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Yeah – my bottom line is if I can live through 2011-2014 and be an active fan throughout that time – I certainly can live through this mediocrity.
And if somehow the baseball gods bless us with a crazily unearned championship in 2026 – I will lift my glass to the teams of 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023 who could have won those seasons, but did not and say this one’s for you.
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This is a timely post, Chip, because as is true to my nature last week I was declaring the Astros to be toast and today I woke up saying to myself, well, if they could win every series the rest of the way they’d be… I love the idea of a four game sweep. Someone make sure Joe gets the memo and let’s get it done. After that, well, I can see a real scenario play out where Altuve/Pena/Alvarez carry this team to postseason wins against competition playing extremely tight in the first couple rounds. I just can’t see that carrying through to get us past the ALCS or into the WS.
I still think the final stretch is brutal and this is a pipe dream, but let’s go ahead and dream. In this fantasy I think the real key is getting the bullpen guys to the finish line without running out of gas and hoping they are all performing at their peak level at the same time. We saw some incredible starting pitching last postseason, but I think this year will be back to guys going 4 innings and turning it over to the pen for a lot of teams. If that’s not your offensive strategy and you aren’t executing to make it happen you should just stay home. Unfortunately, that’s also anathema to Joe Espada.
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Bagwell will be in the booth for the next three nights. Blummer is off. Wonder if we’ll hear anything new?
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I love Bagwell in the booth when I can hear him. Really gets the game.
I loved Bagwell as a player. So much so that when I play games as a character in a video game I name it Bagwell.
I don’t love Crane surrounding himself with former players as advisors. They also lean in the players favor. They always believe if a guy did it once he will do it again. They are more willing to give contracts to guys for what they have done, not for what they are going to do for the life of that contract.
Luhnow was excellent at separating himself. Beane talked about this in Moneyball, the distance between the emotional attachment of being friends with the players versus the cold hard business side, and he struggled with it because he was a former player. But he recognized it as necessary.
I’m afraid no GM is ever going to get a fair shake if Crane’s golf buddies are spending a few hours on the course with him every week. If they can just walk in his door anytime they want. If the GM has to watch them walk by his office on the way to see “Jim.”
If I was a guessing man – I would guess that when Brown worked out the Larnach for Abreu trade with Minnesota, and he took it to Crane, that Bagwell was either immediately consulted or was actually in the room, and he voiced opposition. Larnach is a lefty bat, would be in LF, is hitting .265 with a .347 OBP and a .769 OPS. And you have another year of control. But there is an attachment to how good Abreu has been for years in Houston. And a belief that for the next 45 days he can find that again, when he hasn’t most of the year. A cold, hard baseball guy makes that move, especially given the state of the Astros OF for 3 years running. A Bryan Abreu fan and friend does not. To be fair though, Larnach has been abysmal for the last month, about the same as Varsho.
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I was actually glad to hear this trade was vetoed. Larnach should be a platoon guy at best. He’s been cold in the last two months. Abreu is your eighth inning guy. He had a bad start, but since giving up 3 runs to the Pirates on June 2nd he has only given up 6 runs across 33 appearances. One of those was allowing 2 runs in a blown save. Another was in the 5th inning (?!?!) in a game we lost to the Rangers. The others have been inconsequential. Based on our starting pitching you are going to need Abreu more than Sanchez 2.0 for any chance at making the postseason. I can see the argument in moving him instead of having to pay him this winter or let him leave for nothing, but that one year of control for Larnach would cost $6-7M after arbitration (or more) for a bench player.
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I didn’t hear anything particularly compelling from Bagwell last night. He’s tough to listen to. No doubt he knows what he’s talking about, but two more nights of mumbling?
That was a big homer by the chubby guy playing left field last night. The bomb by Velazquez changed the whole complexion of the ball game.
But I still don’t know how we won by playing such an imperfect game, 10 walks and a couple of errors. I don’t know how it might happen, but Lambert really needs to miss a start.
Looks like the Astros tricked us. Blanco, rather than Burrows is listed as our starter tonight. It’ll be a tough assignment for our bats against Burke.
I joked about this the other day, but is Imai strictly a garbage time guy only at this point or an actual “do not play” guy?
Great to see Pena hitting the ball a bit more frequently. Yordan really needs his help. And the Astros line up really needs Yordan’s help down the stretch.
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Lambert really looks like he is up against it. A combination of fatigue and maybe, just maybe, the words out on his stuff.
I’ll be honest – I was not completely watching last night – I was very in and out watching a movie at the same time. I did not count 10 walks. That’s insane. How can you win a game with 10 walks.
Is Blanco really pitching tonight? Short leash night I hope. I have confidence in Blanco’s stuff for 2027, but 2026 he seems to either throw a not good enough of a strike or a not good enough ball.
Bagwell mumbled about that last night. Too many non-competitive pitches that they take the choice away from the hitter because its 2 feet out of the zone. That’s how you get to 10 walks against a young, aggressive team.
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Lambert was not getting knocked around last night. He just looks weary, and he had not walked 5 guys all season. Put him out there again in 5 days, a bad result should not surprise anyone.
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They looked like a good baseball team last night. Cam had the big swing, but great job by most of the lineup working at bats and getting on base. I’m really honed in on Varsho right now as a fan of Spencer, so I notice every really bad AB. Varsho is that exact guy I was talking about earlier – there are things he does well, some really well, but those things are not worth watching him take 600 PAs in a year. The scary part is I can see a certain former player telling Jim on the golf course, “he goes and gets it. He is 500 MPH. He fits a need for a this team in that he bats left handed. I think you should give him a 3 year deal.” And we will watch 1800 of the most frustrating PA’s for the next 3 years I’ve seen in a while.
I love how they unintentionally buried Yainer last night with the praise to Vazquez and the Astros record when he catches – especially since we gave Boston Wilyer Abreu for practically free by not playing the guy when we got him the first time because of Maldy’s game calling. These people.
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Thoughts
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Steven, as I was writing this piece, it occurred to me how thin the rotation is.
And, you’re right, Lambert may be ‘up against it’. He has more IP this season than any season since he was 21 (he’s 29 now). And his year 21, which was 2017 in the minors, is the last time he’s started 20+ games in a season (he has 24 right now). Hmmm.
Brown should be okay. He just got a late start to the season, so really, he should be fresh.
Wesneski may be getting close to coming up ‘against it’ too. Coming back ahead of schedule from TJ is hard and while he’s had some good games, how long can he go? Another month? Two months? He’s pitched 53 innings this year between the minors and Houston, and that’s putting him in the same territory since he threw 110 back in 2022. He’s 28 and he’s thrown more than 100 IP only three times in his career.
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Well that’s OK, Chip – we can always throw McCullers out there….wait. Arrighetti ….oops. Weiss….nope. France……nah. Burrows….(Maybe next week). Imai ….I think there is an APB out for him. Teng…barely getting out of the bullpen. Jason Alexander…uh uh.
I’m probably forgetting somebody – but that is a lot of flotsam and jetsam to pick through.
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Sounds like it’s time for Dan and Daveb to head to the bullpen!
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You know from a cerebral standpoint and not having overpowering stuff, Lambert reminds me of Collin McHugh. Collin threw 73 MLB innings with the Mets and Rockies in 2012 and 2013. He was as bad as Lambert. Then he got reinvented in Houston. He threw 154, 203 and 184 innings over the next three seasons, making 90 starts. In 2017, he only had 12 starts in him. We had used him up. And yet he still hung around the league for several more pretty good years working mostly out of the pen. I hope Lambert makes it through September. A healthy Lambert in 2027 would be a good guy to have in the rotation. We need a lot of help in the rotation.
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