Astros’ GM situation: More Q’s than A’s

Thinking about the parting of the ways between ex-GM Dana Brown and the Astros has brought up more questions than answers.

Q: Not why, but why now?

Jim Crane claimed that this was done before the end of the season to give Dana Brown an opportunity to get things in order and a leg up in finding his next job. That would make sense if there were any GM jobs open at this time, but let’s face it, he is not likely to land another GM job directly after leaving the team. It is far more likely that he will end up as somebody’s assistant GM or head of scouting. Perhaps this does allow him to get his name out there early, maybe interview a few places and be in those teams’ thoughts when they move on from someone else, or someone moves on from them.

But the “why now” question has broader implications. Why not earlier? Why did they let someone they were obviously going to fire be in charge at the trade deadline? (Or based on his Bryan Abreu for Trevor Larnach trade getting vetoed – was he actually in charge at the deadline?)

The other interesting thing about Crane’s statement was that he did not say he did this now so the team could get a leg up on naming a replacement for Dana Brown. He was very clear that he was giving Dana an early shot at lining up his position, but nothing about the team lining up another GM.

Q: What next (and I mean long term)?

Jim Crane made it clear that, for the time being, the team’s GM decisions would be covered by the three assistant GMs, Jeff Bagwell, and Crane himself. What he did not state, as far as I have seen, is what is happening in the long term. Will Crane convene a committee (maybe the same 5 people) to search for a GM as quickly as possible? Or starting after the season? Or (as most of us think) waiting for the inevitable baseball labor lockout to kick in right after the CBA expires December 1^st and not hire anyone until baseball resolves that situation?

Choosing the last path saves him the salary of a GM for a while, maybe a long while, and, more importantly, for the Astros’ fans’ sanity, this current committee will likely be overseeing minimal personnel decisions, as this is expected to be a dead period awaiting a new CBA. We can pray there will be no Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero or Michael Brantley type signings during this time period.

Q: What next (and I mean short term)?

This period after the trade deadline is a quiet period for major transactions, but with the Astros’ current roster construction and lack of stability and performance, there will be a lot of fiddling with the deck chairs on the Titanic. The committee will decide how to fill the two extra active-roster spots with the big club on September 1. They will also be doing a lot of up and down with their pitchers searching for more help from the minors or, in some cases, more bad innings from the minors. The biggest transaction may be the decision on when/if to activate Mike Burrows.

Q: Who will be the next Astros GM?

This is the biggest question with no sure answer, but plenty of options. Let’s throw a few out there….

• The Ultimate “Out There” move – Swallow hard and pony up what it would take to bring Jeff Luhnow back.
• The Ultimate “In There” move – Drive us all crazy by taking Mr. Back of the card – Jeff Bagwell and give him the job he seems to want to do.
• Old Catchers move – Bring A.J. Hinch back as GM (presuming he is dropped by the Tigers) or… bring Brad Ausmus back as GM after not bringing him back as manager.
• Promote from within – Push one of those assistant GMs into his boss’ spot
• Wait and See – See who comes available as GM’s get canned. Pick someone good from an organization that is making a mistake by releasing them.
• Jerry Jones it – Jim Crane picks who he thinks is the best GM in baseball – Jim Crane
• Kind of go back to Luhnow – See if Sig Mejdal, the Assistant GM with the Orioles, who started off under Luhnow, would like to come back as the guy in charge.
• Call AI – Talk to whatever version of AI you have on your computers and ask them for a list of the top candidates.

I tried AI, and it stated the following:

Copilot said:

With Dana Brown out as Astros GM in August 2026, the search is just beginning, but a handful of names are already emerging as the most realistic candidates. Based on reporting and industry speculation, I’d rank the field like this:

1. Charles Cook (Astros Assistant GM)

Most likely internal candidate

• Cook is one of the assistant GMs currently helping run baseball operations during the transition. [sports.yahoo.com], [cbssports.com]
• Bob Nightengale has reported that Cook is “expected to get a strong look” and is highly regarded within the organization. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
• Hiring Cook would provide continuity while avoiding another major front office overhaul.

Estimated odds: 25-30%

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2. Jeff Bagwell (Senior Advisor)

The Jim Crane wildcard

• Bagwell has significant influence with owner Jim Crane and is part of the interim decision-making group. [forbes.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
• Nightengale reported it’s “possible” Houston could make Bagwell the GM if he wants the job. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
• The biggest question is experience. Bagwell has advisory experience but has never run a baseball operations department. [bvmsports.com], [forbes.com]

Estimated odds: 20-25%

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3. Executive from the Milwaukee Brewers

Strong external possibility

• Multiple reports indicate Houston is likely to look at executives from organizations known for developing talent and winning efficiently, with Milwaukee mentioned specifically. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
• The Brewers are widely respected throughout baseball for player development and front-office innovation.

Estimated odds: 15-20%

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4. Executive from the Tampa Bay Rays

Analytics-driven option

• Tampa Bay remains the gold standard for maximizing limited resources and identifying talent. Astros ownership may want more analytical leadership after moving on from Brown. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
• If Crane wants a modern, process-oriented front office, Rays executives will be near the top of the list.

Estimated odds: 10-15%

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5. Executive from the Cleveland Guardians

Player-development specialist

• Cleveland has also been mentioned as a likely place Houston could target candidates. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
• The Guardians consistently develop pitching and maintain competitiveness despite payroll limitations.

Estimated odds: 10-15%

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Other Names Being Mentioned

A recent Astros-focused analysis also highlighted:

• Carter Hawkins (Cubs GM), although prying him away from Chicago could be difficult. [climbingtalshill.com]
• Michael Schwartze (Braves Assistant GM), an analytics-focused executive. [climbingtalshill.com]
• Ben Sestanovich (Braves Assistant GM), known for player development. [climbingtalshill.com]

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My Take (Note this is AI’s take)

If I were handicapping the race today:

1. Charles Cook
2. Jeff Bagwell
3. Brewers executive
4. Rays executive
5. Guardians executive

The biggest factor is Jim Crane. If he wants continuity and someone he already trusts, Cook or Bagwell could be the favorite. If he decides the organization needs a fresh voice, I’d expect the Astros to target a rising executive from Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, or Cleveland. [bvmsports.com], [sports.yahoo.com]

As an Astros observer, I think Charles Cook is the safest bet, but Bagwell is the name that would generate the most discussion in Houston

Anyway, we are in an interesting spot with more questions than answers or more potential answers in some cases.