Astros’ GM situation: More Q’s than A’s

Thinking about the parting of the ways between ex-GM Dana Brown and the Astros has brought up more questions than answers.

Q: Not why, but why now?

Jim Crane claimed that this was done before the end of the season to give Dana Brown an opportunity to get things in order and a leg up in finding his next job. That would make sense if there were any GM jobs open at this time, but let’s face it, he is not likely to land another GM job directly after leaving the team. It is far more likely that he will end up as somebody’s assistant GM or head of scouting. Perhaps this does allow him to get his name out there early, maybe interview a few places and be in those teams’ thoughts when they move on from someone else, or someone moves on from them.

But the “why now” question has broader implications. Why not earlier? Why did they let someone they were obviously going to fire be in charge at the trade deadline? (Or based on his Bryan Abreu for Trevor Larnach trade getting vetoed – was he actually in charge at the deadline?)

The other interesting thing about Crane’s statement was that he did not say he did this now so the team could get a leg up on naming a replacement for Dana Brown. He was very clear that he was giving Dana an early shot at lining up his position, but nothing about the team lining up another GM.

Q: What next (and I mean long term)?

Jim Crane made it clear that, for the time being, the team’s GM decisions would be covered by the three assistant GMs, Jeff Bagwell, and Crane himself. What he did not state, as far as I have seen, is what is happening in the long term. Will Crane convene a committee (maybe the same 5 people) to search for a GM as quickly as possible? Or starting after the season? Or (as most of us think) waiting for the inevitable baseball labor lockout to kick in right after the CBA expires December 1st and not hire anyone until baseball resolves that situation?

Choosing the last path saves him the salary of a GM for a while, maybe a long while, and, more importantly, for the Astros’ fans’ sanity, this current committee will likely be overseeing minimal personnel decisions, as this is expected to be a dead period awaiting a new CBA. We can pray there will be no Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero or Michael Brantley type signings during this time period.

Q: What next (and I mean short term)?

This period after the trade deadline is a quiet period for major transactions, but with the Astros’ current roster construction and lack of stability and performance, there will be a lot of fiddling with the deck chairs on the Titanic. The committee will decide how to fill the two extra active-roster spots with the big club on September 1. They will also be doing a lot of up and down with their pitchers searching for more help from the minors or, in some cases, more bad innings from the minors. The biggest transaction may be the decision on when/if to activate Mike Burrows.

Q: Who will be the next Astros GM?

This is the biggest question with no sure answer, but plenty of options. Let’s throw a few out there….

  • The Ultimate “Out There” move – Swallow hard and pony up what it would take to bring Jeff Luhnow back.
  • The Ultimate “In There” move – Drive us all crazy by taking Mr. Back of the card – Jeff Bagwell and give him the job he seems to want to do.
  • Old Catchers move – Bring A.J. Hinch back as GM (presuming he is dropped by the Tigers) or… bring Brad Ausmus back as GM after not bringing him back as manager.
  • Promote from within – Push one of those assistant GMs into his boss’ spot
  • Wait and See – See who comes available as GM’s get canned. Pick someone good from an organization that is making a mistake by releasing them.
  • Jerry Jones it – Jim Crane picks who he thinks is the best GM in baseball – Jim Crane
  • Kind of go back to Luhnow – See if Sig Mejdal, the Assistant GM with the Orioles, who started off under Luhnow, would like to come back as the guy in charge.
  • Call AI – Talk to whatever version of AI you have on your computers and ask them for a list of the top candidates.

I tried AI, and it stated the following:

Copilot said:

With Dana Brown out as Astros GM in August 2026, the search is just beginning, but a handful of names are already emerging as the most realistic candidates. Based on reporting and industry speculation, I’d rank the field like this:

1. Charles Cook (Astros Assistant GM)

Most likely internal candidate

  • Cook is one of the assistant GMs currently helping run baseball operations during the transition. [sports.yahoo.com], [cbssports.com]
  • Bob Nightengale has reported that Cook is “expected to get a strong look” and is highly regarded within the organization. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
  • Hiring Cook would provide continuity while avoiding another major front office overhaul.

Estimated odds: 25-30%

2. Jeff Bagwell (Senior Advisor)

The Jim Crane wildcard

Estimated odds: 20-25%

3. Executive from the Milwaukee Brewers

Strong external possibility

  • Multiple reports indicate Houston is likely to look at executives from organizations known for developing talent and winning efficiently, with Milwaukee mentioned specifically. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
  • The Brewers are widely respected throughout baseball for player development and front-office innovation.

Estimated odds: 15-20%

4. Executive from the Tampa Bay Rays

Analytics-driven option

  • Tampa Bay remains the gold standard for maximizing limited resources and identifying talent. Astros ownership may want more analytical leadership after moving on from Brown. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
  • If Crane wants a modern, process-oriented front office, Rays executives will be near the top of the list.

Estimated odds: 10-15%

5. Executive from the Cleveland Guardians

Player-development specialist

  • Cleveland has also been mentioned as a likely place Houston could target candidates. [clutchpoints.com], [sports.yahoo.com]
  • The Guardians consistently develop pitching and maintain competitiveness despite payroll limitations.

Estimated odds: 10-15%

Other Names Being Mentioned

A recent Astros-focused analysis also highlighted:

My Take (Note this is AI’s take)

If I were handicapping the race today:

  1. Charles Cook
  2. Jeff Bagwell
  3. Brewers executive
  4. Rays executive
  5. Guardians executive

The biggest factor is Jim Crane. If he wants continuity and someone he already trusts, Cook or Bagwell could be the favorite. If he decides the organization needs a fresh voice, I’d expect the Astros to target a rising executive from Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, or Cleveland. [bvmsports.com], [sports.yahoo.com]

As an Astros observer, I think Charles Cook is the safest bet, but Bagwell is the name that would generate the most discussion in Houston

Anyway, we are in an interesting spot with more questions than answers or more potential answers in some cases.

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24 responses to “Astros’ GM situation: More Q’s than A’s”

  1. Dan, I’ve always liked Sig Megdal and Brad Ausmus.

    I like Mike Elias even more, but he’s entrenched in Baltimore and actually was born in Virginia, so he’s probably got a lot of family nearby and it’s doubtful they could pluck him away. Worth a call, though, for sure. Yeah, yeah, I know the Orioles have been near the bottom of the AL East for a couple of seasons, so maybe he’s not the guy. Just throwing a name out there.

    Ausmus might be a better pick for manager than GM, but I’m wondering why he hasn’t gotten another shot already. GM? Probably not, as I’d be concerned about the Bagwell/Biggio influence there. Now, if you want to talk manager, I’m game for that conversation.

    Megdal is great in the analytics, but how would he function as a GM who has to interact directly with owner? Plus…and this is a big one…in his two roles as assistant, he’s burned it down both times. First, in Houston with Luhnow in charge, then in Baltimore, when Elias went there.

    While everyone here may be okay with that, it’s not likely Crane would sign onto that.

    Not a fan of internal promotion. In this case, it would just seem like more of the same.

    I really wonder if Crane won’t play this out for a while, or at least until the CBA is finalized (next year?). May not be a big need for trades, FA signings, etc. for a while.

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    • Yeah I threw Sig’s name out there because I did not think Ellis would take a side job.

      We all know it is likely to be no one we are thinking about.

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  2. I’m a 19 year STH. If Bagwell is given the job, next year will be my last. My limited exposure to Bagwell confirms his huge ego, lack of personality, and laziness.

    Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPad

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    • yankee – I’ll bite -what is a STH? Semi-tall Human? South Texas Hombre? Still Thinking Houstonian? St. Thomas High grad (I am – class of ’74)? Silly Trailblazing Hillbilly?

      I could go on….

      I do have funny feelings about Bagwell wanting the power without the hard work.

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      • You write fir a sports site and don’t know that’s Season Ticket Holder? Commonly used acronym amongst sports fans.

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      • You write for a sports site and don’t know the acronym for Season Ticket Holder? Or that was a weak attempt at humor?

        Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPad

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      • Well Jimle,

        You might as well get out before the prices go up too much.

        But please hang around here from time to time and give us your perspective.

        Buy the way, I was 19 when I first became an STH. I didn’t know what it meant either! Price was 3.50 per seat right behind the dugout in the Dome.

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      • Well as Warren Oates once eloquently said in Stripes “Lighten up Francis”.

        OK – seriously- I write for a sports site but I get paid the same amount as you to do this writing- so I am an amateur. now professionally I work as an engineer where my brain gets clogged with acronyms – so I may miss a few here and there. And I just hit the 70 y.o. mark – I know I’ve seen STH before but forgot it. Hey no biggie.

        But thanks for joining in – glad to have you here.

        Liked by 1 person

  3. I was excited when Brown got the job. For at least the last year I’ve been ready for him to lose it. I don’t know if this is the right time for that to have happened because of the looming lockout. Whoever does get hired is going to have a very short period to get players signed and into uniforms. That implies to me that rather than performing a search for the best choice, strategically, Crane is going to end up picking someone with some old school experience. Will it be Bagwell? Maybe. Neal Huntington or Al Avila? What’s Jim Bowden doing these days? Regardless, none of the names I can think of scream good decision.

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    • Devin – I don’t have a warm feeling at this time. I really think it is likely someone from the outside but if it is the inside I think it is likely Bags and he will be bringing Bag-gage to this job.

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    1. Crane had to be disgusted with the results of the 3 and 6 home stand against a couple of really crappy teams and one team we helped feel better about themselves. We let the M’s back in. I don’t care what Crane said to the small, hand picked group of “reporters”. Throw an another softball Brian! I don’t believe him. I also don’t think Dana was in any control of either the draft or the deadline. Bagwell was right there. Abreu is still an Astro. I also wonder how loyal to him his three assistant GM’s were.
    2. Crane is similar in ways to many baseball fans that sit in the stands or on the couch and assume they know as much or more about the intricacies of baseball than the real GM or the players or manager in the dugout. And yes Dan, I don’t think Crane thinks he’ll “get his monies worth” if he hires a GM during a labor dispute when he already has a guy in Bagwell who either thinks like him or will tell him what he wants to hear. It would not surprise me if we don’t have a new GM on January 1, unless one of the three guys in house gets the nod. And that’s a scary thought. This current committee will have to get to work building a 2027 roster if they have not started already, regarding of an anticipated lockout. And maybe Bagwell will extend Walker. I don’t have any emoji’s here, but that was supposed to be a joke. But, in real life, lot’s might happen with the consortium.
    3. Yeah, Burrows almost has to be next up. And honestly, I’m not sure how the rules work after September 1, but I know if a guy goes on the IR, obviously someone can be brought up to pitch. We’ll probably see an adjusted 40 man roster before the 1st.
    4. When Crane gets around to signing a new GM, I don’t think we’ll be all that surprised. As long as Bagwell is glue on Crane, I do think some of the best candidates, if sought out, will take a rain check and wait for a more attractive opportunity. I don’t think Crane has a very good reputation throughout the game. At least I have not heard anyone in the MLB arena have anything great to say about him recently.

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    • Can’t hurt. But it does make me wonder if there are people in house that might want to make some changes to the pitching coaching staff this winter.

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      • Did Strom really improve his new teams’ pitchers? Maybe increased spin rate led to our increased pitcher injuries. Maybe Dana didn’t want to bring in Strom for whatever reason, and that is why Dana was let go now.

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      • AstroNut, yeah. High spin rate sure does not help pitchers stay healthy. The analytics guys discovered that pitchers with more spin get more outs if they can control what they’re throwing and then pitching coaches, Brent Strom included, preached and taught it.

        I don’t know the answer to this, but I’d guess that Nolan Ryan did not mess around with a curve ball a whole lot when he was a kid. These days little leaguers are throwing breaking balls taught to them by coaches and dads. That’s part of the problem.

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  6. Maybe we should play the Yankees every game at their ball park. i guess something about playing them at Yankee Stadium.

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  7. I want a GM that looks at his everyday 9 the same way a MIT professor approaches rockets. But then I want a GM that looks at his bench and immediate AAA depth the way that baseball players do. Find me guys that fit the equations of long at bats, eye at the plate to give 550 plate appearances too, and find me a new Duby not to give 550 PAs to but to spread around the field, take advantage of his glove, his baseball IQ, just limit his PAs.

    Find me that GM, I’ll be happy. Find me one that understands Isaac Paredes is not built to be a bench player, at this point, he plays two positions and both of them just barely adequately. He isn’t winning any baserunning awards. No gold gloves. But you want that guy in the batters box 550 times. Nick Allen, I want that guy playing 2B, SS, 3B in the 9th inning of a close game. I don’t mind his baserunning, he is smart about it even if he isn’t the fastest. But I don’t want him batting 550 times.

    Find me a MIT graduate who understands how the big catch by the defensive minded CFer can still win a game in the 9th.

    And find me a GM that won’t use the waiver wire to fill every need, those guys are neither a Einstein pick or a ball player.

    By the way, he might need to understand a little about pitching, too.

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  8. dave, do you think Luhnow was smarter than Crane? I’m not sure I agree with your assessment. I believe people like Crane are okay with people who are smarter in certain areas, but competent and trustworthy.

    I still believe Crane got burned and he’s determined not to get burned again. Thus, the hands on approach. He ‘needs’ to be in the know on everything and it’s bubbled over into Jerry Jones II.

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    • Chip, without a doubt, I think Luhnow understands or understood the game of Major League baseball far better than Jim Crane. And there is no shame in that.

      Certainly Crane is a great businessman as it applies to growing the value of his holdings. But his arrogance and perhaps his ego and even his own insecurities have also allowed him to make poor personnel decisions that a guy like Luhnow would not have.

      If Crane is determined not to get burned again, then this organization is doomed to a future of mediocrity. In order to avoid that outcome he’s got to trust himself to put the best people around him and let them make the baseball decisions. The big ones too.

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  9. No Smith in the lineup tonight. Espada seems to be holding him out of the lineup more often now. I just shake my head.

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