Midseason report card: Astros and baseball

We’re halfway home in what may be the last full baseball season until 2028! It’s been an up-and-down first half, and the 2026 Astros are sitting right around just under .500 with more questions than answers. So let’s do what every teacher does at the midpoint: hand out some grades. You’re not going to agree with all of them, and that’s fine.

It’s a little long, so take your time and, by all means, tell me where I’m wrong.

Yordan Alvarez: A+

This isn’t complicated. Yordan is leading the majors in OPS and slugging, he’s on Triple Crown watch, he’s the AL MVP frontrunner, and he’s played in almost every game. That last part matters more than anything because health has always been the one thing standing between Alvarez and the award. If he keeps this up, we’re not just talking about one of the best offensive seasons in Astros history; we’re talking about one of the best in the American League in the last decade or so.

Jose Altuve: B-

Forget the $33 million and declining skills. He’s Jose Altuve. The oblique cost him time, and the slump coming back was painful to watch, but he’s heated up over his last few games, and he’s still producing at 36 years old. Altuve isn’t the player he was five years ago, and that’s fine. He doesn’t have to be. He just has to be good enough to hold down a lineup spot and mentor the younger guys, and he seems to be doing both. The Hall of Fame conversation is entirely separate.

Jeremy Peña: C

Where’s the 2022 World Series MVP? The hamstring issues have slowed him down, and that hasn’t been good for the Astros. Peña is 28 and should be entering his prime, but it doesn’t look like it right now. He started only 120 games last year, and he probably won’t hit that many this year. And with Scott Boras as his agent, an extension is off the table, which means Houston is watching a core player drift toward free agency.

Spencer Arrighetti: B+

Nobody saw this coming. Started the year in Triple A, got called up in mid-April, and went 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA in his first eight starts. He won AL Pitcher of the Month in May and looked like the ace this rotation desperately needed. He had five quality starts through June 8, but the ERA has crept past 3 after his last couple of outings. So the question now is whether he’s a guy figuring it out or a guy who got figured out. The second half will answer that.

Josh Hader: B

When he’s on the mound, he’s still Josh Hader. The problem is getting him to the mound. So do you punish a guy’s grade for being hurt just because he’s making $19 million a year? He missed the first month with biceps tendinitis after the shoulder capsule strain ended his 2025 season in August. You need your closer available from Opening Day, and the durability concerns are becoming a pattern that’s hard to ignore.

Christian Walker: C-

Give him credit: after hitting .238 last year and looking like the second coming of Jose Abreu, he’s turned it around a bit in 2026. The bat has been productive (until late), and if he keeps this pace, he could pass several of his 2025 numbers by mid-to-late August. But $20M a year buys All-Star expectations, and he’s not that. He’s a solid everyday first baseman with an untradeable contract.

The Incompletes

Hunter Brown is back after a two-month hiatus on the IL, and the Boras clock is ticking on his future here. Carlos Correa is out for the season, and the dead money is piling up. Yainer Diaz remains a question mark behind the plate. Cristian Javier is just now working his way back from rehab. Not enough data to grade any of them fairly, so I’ll let you do it.

Joe Espada: C

Year three, final year of his contract, and the trajectory is pointing in the wrong direction. Won 88 his first year, 87 his second, and now the team’s under .500 at the midpoint. You could defend the first two seasons as solid work with a roster in transition, but this year the pitching has fallen apart, the energy feels flat, and Crane hasn’t extended him. That silence speaks louder than any press conference. I still don’t hold him as accountable as Crane and Brown. You can nit-pick his decisions, but face it, he doesn’t have much to work with.

Dana Brown: D

Also, in the final year of his contract. Brown came in talking about locking up young players early and rebuilding the farm system. Three years later, the only extensions he’s completed are Javier and Altuve. Boras now represents both Brown and Peña, and those extension windows are effectively closed. The Tucker trade was sharp, but the Walker contract looks shaky, and the farm is still near the bottom of baseball. The report card on his tenure isn’t finished, but the grades so far aren’t encouraging.

Jim Crane: F+

He has to set the tone and lead, and in my book, he has done neither. Two guys running his baseball operation are both on expiring deals, and he hasn’t committed to either one. The Correa dead money is on the books, the payroll questions never go away, and the gap between what Crane spends and what the Dodgers and Mets spend gets wider every year. He approved the Hader deal and the Correa re-acquisition, so he’s not afraid to spend when it suits him. The problem is nobody can predict when that mood strikes.

Medical/Training Staff: D

I don’t really know how you judge this, since injuries seem rampant in MLB. At some point, though, the injury list stops being bad luck and starts being a pattern. Hunter Brown’s shoulder, Hader’s biceps, Peña’s hamstring, Ronel Blanco on the 60-day, McCullers’ whatever-this-time, Brandon Walter’s elbow, and Shewmake’s abductor strain. That sounds more like a casualty list. Something isn’t working.

Minor League System: D

Still ranked near the bottom of baseball. Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Neyens are both in Single-A, and Ethan Frey is the most exciting bat at High-A. Frey’s the one I believe in, a 6’6” LSU product with plus raw power who hit .330 in his pro debut, but even he is at least a year or two away. There’s no cavalry coming this year and not much next year, if at all. This is a two-to-three-(or four-) year rebuild at the minor league level, and that timeline doesn’t match the window Alvarez and Altuve are playing in right now.

Rob Manfred: D

The CBA expires December 1, and the owners are pushing a salary cap that could trigger the first lost games since 1994. The regional sports network thing fell to pieces on his watch. The competitive balance gap between the Dodgers and the Mets, and everyone else, has become a canyon. And the man’s signature accomplishment is a pitch clock. I’m genuinely asking: what has he done well?

The ABS: B

The strike zone is more consistent, the embarrassing blown calls on obvious strikes are mostly gone, and it hasn’t slowed the games down. But I keep coming back to this thought: how would Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux have fared with this system? Those guys built Hall of Fame careers partly on getting calls that nobody else got because they could paint corners better than everyone else. The ABS doesn’t care about your reputation or your command. A quarter-inch off the plate is a ball, period. That’s fair, but it also erases a dimension of pitching artistry that made the game fascinating. And that’s why I give it a ‘B’, because I’m still a purist.

The AL West: C+

Worst division in baseball? Seattle has been solid (if you can call .500 ‘solid’), Texas and the A’s are bunched in the middle ground, and the Angels are doing whatever the Angels do. Houston is sitting under .500 and still within striking distance of the division. That’s either competitive balance or evidence that the whole division is mediocre, and I’m leaning toward the second one.

Final Thought

Those are my grades, and I’m sure you disagree with at least five of them. So tell me. Where am I too generous? Where am I too harsh? And who did I leave off the report card entirely?

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20 responses to “Midseason report card: Astros and baseball”

  1. I was chatting with my brother last night about our beloved, future Hall of Famer, Jose Altuve. We were wondering if he’ll continue to play if his decline continues so sharply. Could he hang it up before the contract is done? From a pride perspective, I can’t see him out there for the next three years if the decline continues so significantly.

    I can’t give him a B-. He’s got a -0.1 WAR. He’s getting pulled late for Delgado. It’s the correct move late in games. His OPS+ is 94 on the season. And I’m not sure I want the worst baserunner in Astro history to be doing too much mentoring.

    One thing in defense of Jose: He’s still hitting when leading off the game and when leading off an inning. Maybe Joe should just leave him there and stretch the line up out a bit. It likely hurts Altuve’s pride to have to hitting 5th. Leading off an inning, he’s posted a .932 OPS, leading off a game, .909.

    As far Pena goes, heck, I’d take his stats for the rest of the season. How many .800+ OPS guys do we have? He’s excellent on the bases. He keeps a positive dWAR. Pena gets a B+ from me.

    I’m going to give Spencer Arrighetti an incomplete. He’s somewhere between an A and a C so far.

    I’m giving Joe a B on the season to date. Yeah, he’s annoying. I don’t know why Santos was closing last night. He’s obviously gassed. His recent stats show it. The Tigers had not hit all night and suddenly they were making solid contact. But here’s the point. Who was Joe supposed to use? Alimber Santa can’t come back until the 1st. Abreu would have been high risk last night. King has been out there too often.

    Dana “D-” Brown hands Joe the roster to work with. I don’t mind if Joe goes home in the off season. A new GM should be able to name his own field general. And Joe is not a General.

    F+ is a harsh rating for the best Owner this club has ever had. Good points all though. Seems Crane has backed off this year, at least publicly. We’ll see what happens between now and August 3. Maybe something really interesting happens. I presume Jared is being integrated into some of an owners role. Maybe we’ll get a break and he’ll be wise enough to leave baseball decisions to good baseball people.

    Chip, I can’t quibble with your other rankings.

    Big game tonight for my incomplete guy (A to C) Spencer Arrighetti. He needs to get out of his four game slump.

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  2. The new MLB idea that the MLBPA will shoot down is limiting FA contracts to 5 years. I really like this idea. I hate that I probably sound pro-owner with a lot of these comments, but I really think the budget problems Houston has which the Dodgers do not summarize what’s wrong with the game. Now, the Dodgers currently have over a billion dollars in deferred money to players. $120,700 is deferred for 2026. There are ten teams whose 2026 payroll is less than $120M.

    I can’t separate the performance of Altuve from his salary and hold Walker to a different standard. I do understand the logic as we’re paying Altuve for what he did for us earlier in his career. Bref has Altuve at 0.0 WAR and Walker at 1.5 right now. Injuries obviously impact this, but they’re a part of the game.

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  3. Quite a write up Chip. Thanks for taking some time out to give us something to quibble about.

    Alvarez – the mythical age 28 season. Usually 29 and 30 are pretty good too. They got to where they thought they could get, 1.5 games out of the division and currently sitting in the 3rd WC spot. Insane to think just 3 weeks ago but thats baseball. I still don’t think they are an overall good baseball club.

    Speaking of age 28 seasons, I’m gonna put my man Taylor in there more often if I’m Joe. I know, a .192 career BA, and the rest of the putrid offensive stats are concerning. But funny things happen in baseball in age 28 seasons. And we need offense from CF, there are a lot of lineups around baseball that Jake Meyers would be the better option in getting to bat 9th and taking advantage of his defense and (at least better than Taylor) plate discipline, but this isn’t one.

    Altuve actually has a positive OWAR, so beating him up about his overall WAR is just reminding us how bad of a defensive player he is. But I really only remember 2 or 3 plays this year that he didn’t make that I thought a better second baseman would have, its just the stats disagree with me.

    The Astros record with Pena in the lineup and without Pena is telling.

    Spencer’s secret is out. He wowed some lineups with the consistency of the location of that curve ball. Now, the words out and the rest of his stuff is just human. He gave us the push we needed though, and maybe this confidence it gave him pays dividends.

    B is being nice to Joe. I like Joe. When he is given a roster where he has, say, 7 everyday guys he can write in pen, and a set rotation where at least 4 guys are making 5 inning starts, he is great. Look at the bullpen stats the last month versus earlier. It’s insane the difference a good rotation makes on the bullpen. Guys start falling into roles, have an idea of whats going to be asked from them, they don’t get stretched into “attempting to get extra outs”, no one is left in to wear this one. It’s when he doesn’t have lemonade, but just lemons, that he goes sour. But realistically, how many guys are there that have ever been good with just lemons.

    Brown can’t be gone soon enough for me. That may be unfair because maybe Correa was shoved down his throat or it was Bagwell’s idea to pursue to Arenado, but he is the guy who wears it.

    I think you are undervaluing some of the minor leaguers, but yea, overall the system is devoid really of pitching.

    I like the ABS, it adds a new wrinkle. It actually needs to be employed with some strategy.

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  4. Steven, you said: “Brown can’t be gone soon enough for me. That may be unfair because maybe Correa was shoved down his throat, or it was Bagwell’s idea to pursue Arenado, but he is the guy who wears it.”That’s probably true, but here’s the real difference. Luhnow wouldn‘t have had those deals crammed down his throat. He‘d have stood up and held the line, I believe. I’ve wondered all along if Crane is hiring more ‘yes’ men now after the sign-stealing stuff so he doesn’t get blind-sided again.

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  5. Thoughts and grades in no particular order….

    • I really like the ABS – I wish they gave them more than 2 challenges (misses). You are barking up the wrong tree in extolling the Braves pitchers relative to wide pitches. The Astros were their victims in a few of those playoff series. Very good pitchers don’t need Eric Gregg calling balls in the other side batter’s box strikes.
    • GM – Dana Brown – (C) – I don’t like some of his moves that got us here, but I do respect that he has been able to call up/pick up enough pitching to get this team through the worse two consecutive seasons of buzzard’s injury luck I can remember and keep us from falling off the map.
    • Manager – Joe Espada – (B-) – He drives me nuts quite often, but sometimes I’ve stared at the active roster (after the tons of injury) and said what the heck do you want the man to do?
    • Alvarez (A+) – Where would this team be without Yordan? Nowhere near the top of the division or the bottom of the Wild Card. Great season for the great one.
    • Walker – (C+) – His fielding has saved us a lot of runs this year -he has driven in a bunch of runs – but his hitting is on a downward arc that needs to turn around to keep him from ending up a C-
    • Altuve – (C) – He has been average in the field (to my eyes) and average at the plate. His season could go either way – is he on the way down and out or is he going to hit a hot spell.
    • Pena – (B) – I would rate him higher except for missed time. When he has been there he has been a very good fielder and has been a sparkplug to the offense (.290 BA/ .806 OPS)
    • Paredes (B-) – His grade is on the rise as he has warmed up lately. I want to nickname him “Three-Two” – because he sure works the pitchers.
    • Diaz (C) – He is average for a catcher, but a bit of a disappointment vs. the talent he showed a couple seasons ago.
    • Smith (C-) – OK he’s only 23. But he needs to start showing he is learning. His fielding brings value, but when you see him kill the ball followed by 3 games filled with silly at bats it is frustrating.
    • Meyers (D) – Jake has a 0.0 WAR which reflects good defense offset by sucky offense.
    • Loperfido (C+) – In this OF – he is hitting ok and on the rise. His Homer and triple in two recent games were critical.
    • Hunter Brown (B) – Not a bad grade for missing two months.
    • Peter Lambert (A-) – He’s been very good and has helped carry the rotation the whole season – very few stumbles.
    • Spencer Arrighetti (B+) – He was an A+ for a while but has slid a bit lately
    • Tatsuya Imai (C+) – Grading him a little on the curve here. If he is over the yips he could turn into a solid B in a hurry. He has had some good to very good outings lately (wrapped around a meltdown)
    • Mike Burrows (C-) – Similarly, give us more of his last start and you have a solid pitcher. He has the talent if he can keep the ball on the edges.
    • Kai-Wei Teng (B-) – A good trooper who has done a great job out of the pen and a decent (but falling) job out of the rotation.
    • Josh Hader (B) – This would be an A+ based on his return – just graded down due to the time he’s missed. He has been excellent since returning.
    • Bryan Abreu (D-) – He does have 2 wins and 5 saves, but…he has been bad this year.
    • Bryan King (A-) – He has done an excellent job considering he had to slide into the closers role with Abreu’s crash.
    • Steven Okert (B+) – If it seems like he has pitched every other day..well nearly. This bullpen has been overworked and Okert has pitched in 4 more games than anyone else.
    • A.J. Blubaugh (B-) – He has not been perfect, but also has been overworked – throwing 13 more innings than any other pure reliever on the team. And after a rough start he has been pitching better as he has gone along.
    • Enyel De Los Santos (C) – Again a lot of the damage to De Los Santos has been on his additional innings – when they sent him back out there when they did not have another choice.

    There you go – love having the chance to pitch in here.

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    • Dan, I’m not extolling anyone. It was a question about how they would fare in this environment. Would either of those guys be Hall of Famers if they’d had ABS? They learned to play the system at the time and certainly took advantage of it.

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      • Sorry Chip – just a little grumpy after my medical week. The pitchers you mentioned would have been just fine with ABS because they had great control – they knew how to work to the system before and would have figured it out again.

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  6. A wake-up call for fans who’d written off the Astros.

    • If the playoffs began today, Houston would be in. Playing Cleveland, who they are 4-2 against, in the first round.
    • Houston is 29-23 since April 30, one of the better marks in the AL in that time.
    • The Astros are 7-2 in June in games decided by 1 or 2 runs.
    • Hunter and Hader are back. Pretty good ‘deadline’ additions.

    All is not well just yet, but who’d have thunk it a few weeks ago.

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  7. Looked like Arrigehetti lost his composure when he lost that challenge near the beginning of the game. He should know better than that.

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  8. Chip, can I change my A to C range incomplete for Spencer Arrighetti? At this point, I don’t want to assign him a score. He’s made it much easier to find room for Javier and give Teng another start. I can’t recollect a guy going from Pitcher of the Month to getting yanked from the rotation just a month later. Steven, I think you are correct. Arrighetti was strutting around on the mound through the first two innings, oblivious to his impending self destruction.

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    • daveb, of course, it’s your grade. I’m flummoxed at how Arrighetti has gone so quickly from THAT good to THAT bad. I told Dan I’m wondering if we won’t hear soon that he’s been battling a rotator cuff issue (or some other injury). I’m almost to the point of saying that the way he’s made a 180 is unprecedented.

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      • Chip, I don’t think he’s hurt. He looks comfortable on the mound, almost arrogant. As Steven suggested, it seems that folks have figured him out and he has not or cannot adjust. With 5 walks and three more dingers yesterday, he’s completely lost whatever he had going for him.

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      • I think his control or lack thereof has him always skating on thin ice. There are a number of times I’d like to see him give in and not try so hard for Ks.

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  9. Framber started today. Yordan sat. Walker went 4-5. Blubaugh threw 2 clean innings again, early. It was not a remarkably well played game, but the Astros beat the Tigers. I keep wondering if we’re playing better or we’re just playing a bunch of not so good teams.

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  13. Thoughts

    • I did not enjoy Teng’s outing yesterday – but kind of expected it as that is how he is trending
    • I do like the team showing some come from behind grit in a number of these games. I don’t know if it’s our offense or poor bullpens on the other side.
    • Paredes has been hitting better lately – he has discovered that there is whole other side to the field beyond his normal extreme pull. He has been knocking in runs early and late in these games.
    • Walker had been looking totally hopeless on this road trip and then he gets 4 hits in one game. Baseball is just the oddest of all of the sports.
    • Pena has been looking so good lately – as good as Altuve has been looking bad.
    • Blubaugh is on a nice run lately and it has been needed to bridge to the back of the bullpen.

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  14. timely hitting in the later innings today gets the win. De los Santos almost blows it but came through. Just not that impressed with him especially in high leverage situations. Now on to Minnesota and let’s get back to .500 and better baseball.

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