Bob Nightengale dropped a bomb over the weekend: the Astros have told teams they’re “wasting their time” asking about Jeremy Peña and Christian Walker. Houston isn’t selling. The Astros are buying. To do otherwise would mean Houston had ‘failed’, Brown says.
Well, okay, then.
A team hanging in at 38-43, five games under .500, just declared itself a buyer at the trade deadline. Bold and reckless? Maybe. Or exactly right for a franchise with championship DNA that’s only 3 1/2 games back of Seattle in the weakest division in baseball?
If Dana Brown is going shopping, let’s talk about what he’s shopping for.
The needs are specific: a left-handed hitting outfielder and bullpen help. Yordan Alvarez is the only elite left-handed bat in the lineup, and beyond Josh Hader and Bryan King, the bullpen has pretty much been a liability all season.
The Red Sox are in last place, and Craig Breslow’s garage sale may be open for business soon.
Jarren Duran is a left-handed outfield bat Houston needs. But he’s hitting .199, and that’s ugly; this is a guy with 12 homers already in 2026, plus speed and defense, and Boston has five outfielders for three spots. ESPN’s Kylie McDaniel argues he would benefit from a change of scenery.
The problem is that Boston places a premium value on him, which they won’t get this summer. Some outlets had connected him to Houston with Bryan Abreu going back the other way. But this should probably be a non-starter because of his anemic average, and Brown may get laughed out of the room if he made that deal. The Astros need a sure-fire bat right now, not a hope-we-can-make-him-better bat.
Aroldis Chapman is the most dominant reliever on the market: 2.08 ERA, 14 saves, and recently had 29 consecutive saves converted. ESPN puts his trade probability at 90%. His contract includes a $13 million mutual option for 2027, so this isn’t completely a rental. Chapman could lock down the eighth from the left side while Hader handles the ninth, and if Hader’s body breaks down again, you’ve got a safety net. October-caliber depth.
Sonny Gray rounds out the Boston trio with nine wins and a solid ERA, but his contract is a tad complicated: a $30 million mutual option for 2027 and a $10 million buyout. And, while he has a no-trade contract, he has said he would work with a team if the Red Sox wanted to trade him. Whoever acquires him is eating most of that cost.
The Giants are 32-46 and may be heading for a fire sale of their own. He’s not an outfielder (though he’s played there in his career), but Luis Arraez is hitting .321, bats left-handed, and ESPN gives him a 90% trade probability as a pending free agent. Not a power bat, but he gets on base, doesn’t strike out (13 times in 300+ PAs), and gives Espada a versatile option.
Tarik Skubal, the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner, is the number one trade candidate in baseball, and Detroit is worse off than Houston. He’d cost a fortune in prospects, and Houston’s farm system can’t come close to matching what the Dodgers or Yankees would offer. But this is the franchise that traded for Justin Verlander in 2017 and Zack Greinke in 2019, so you never say never because Crane has never been afraid to swing big. Not happening this time, though Dana may put in a phone call.
The market runs deeper than those headline-grabbing guys. I’m not suggesting these are fits for Houston, but here are some other names to watch:
Outfielders: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Jo Adell (LAA), Mickey Moniak (COL), Lars Nootbaar (STL), Masataka Yoshida (BOS), Byron Buxton (MIN, though his full no-trade clause makes it unlikely).
Starting pitchers: Reid Detmers (LAA), Casey Mize (DET), Freddy Peralta (NYM), Sandy Alcantara (MIA), Joe Ryan (MIN), Robbie Ray (SF), Michael Wacha (KC), Seth Lugo (KC).
Relievers: Kenley Jansen (DET), Matt Strahm (KC), Pete Fairbanks (MIA), Lucas Erceg (KC), Brooks Raley (NYM), A.J. Minter (NYM), Taylor Rogers (MIN), JoJo Romero (STL).
The problem is that Houston ain’t got nothing in the wallet. This is where the whole conversation hits a big ol’ brick wall, though. Dana Brown says he may be buying, but buying requires some type of currency, and the Astros basically have empty pockets.
Not a single Houston prospect cracks ESPN’s Top 100. The system’s two best players are 18 and 19 years old and play in Single-A, with 2029 (or later) ETAs. The next tier is in Double-A, still a year away. Ethan Frey is at A+ Asheville, but hopefully he ain’t going anywhere in a trade.
So what do you actually trade? Boston will want Isaac Paredes for Duran, and then who plays third? Abreu is already being linked to the Duran deal, but moving him weakens the very relief corps you’re trying to fix. Beyond those two, you’re offering teenagers that other teams will demand, and Houston can’t afford to lose.
And because the farm is thin, the Astros have zero salary leverage. Teams with loaded prospect pools get to tell sellers, “We’ll take your guy, but you’re picking up half his contract.” Houston doesn’t get to make that demand. Chapman’s $13 million option, Gray’s $10 million buyout, Arraez’s remaining salary: the Astros are probably absorbing every dollar if they pull the trigger. In essence, the Astros will have to ante up for years of ignoring the farm system. And don’t forget, they’re already paying Carlos Correa $21 million this year to rehab a surgically repaired ankle in street clothes.
That’s the Catch-22 that Jim Crane and Dana Brown are staring down. You can’t rebuild without prospects, and you can’t buy without them either.
So Dana says he ain’t selling, which means he’s likely buying. But buying what, and with what?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
17 responses to “Dana Brown says he’s buying”
Don’t shout me down here, friends. I’m just trying to make sense of what has been a nonsensical season here.
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Dana wants to buy because that’s his only option to remain employed next year.
The smart move would be to sell and retool. The absolute worst place to be is a mediocre.500 team, and that is us. Even if we sneak into the playoffs, we aren’t as good as the Ms, Rays, NYY much less LAD, Philly, ATL, Mil, Cubs, SD, Stl.
Walker, Okert, De le Santos, Vasquez, Zack Cole, Brice all no future with us. Get Duran or Gureil and some prospects and be a contender next year
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Dana wants to buy because that’s his only option to remain employed next year.
The smart move would be to sell and retool. The absolute worst place to be is a mediocre.500 team, and that is us. Even if we sneak into the playoffs, we aren’t as good as the Ms, Rays, NYY much less LAD, Philly, ATL, Mil, Cubs, SD, Stl.
Walker, Okert, De le Santos, Vasquez, Zack Cole, Brice all no future with us. Get Duran or Gureil and some prospects and be a contender next year
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The Astros tried to give that one back yesterday, but the Jays would have nothing of it.
Usually back to back to back dingers help ensure a win, but our pen said otherwise. How can they keep sending De Los Santos out there in those situations? He’s gassed. They need to bring the real Santa back in as soon as the rules allow.
Nice to see Loperfido have an impact. And VanWay getting 6 outs for the win was against most all odds.
As for Dana proclaiming himself a buyer, that’s great. But any deadline deal of significance is coming through Crane, if there is something creative enough that can make a real difference. Dana is a carnival barker though. He says a lot of stuff that never happens. Maybe Loperfido for Sanchez?
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I really wanted to see the Loperfido HR so loaded up mlb.com’s game wrap. In the highlights one of the entires is “Raynel Delgado pops out to third baseman Kazuma Okamoto.” While technically correct, the only reason this was a highlight (or lowlight) is that it came with the bases loaded and 2 outs in a tied 8th inning. I’m really sick of this slop.
I did see the Loperfido highlight and greatly enjoyed it. Hopefully we’ll see some more of those on inside breaking balls.
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LOL Chip. No shouting.
First – last night was the fight they needed. It looked bleak in the 10th. Couldn’t get a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs or even with 2 outs. Toronto got the same situation and failed also. Then you get Walker and Paredes both up with 1st and 2nd and no outs/one out in the 11th, and you can’t even get a guy over. As Loperfido is batting, after strike 2, I thought to myself I’m going to write an essay on the failure of 2026 Loperfido tomorrow and he did what often happens in baseball, he made me feel stupid one pitch later. In hindsight, it was actually a pretty good AB not because of the result, but because Joey had to be prepared to do what he did. He knew the pitcher he was dealing with, and he knew at some point that low inside curve was coming – it wasn’t a terrible pitch. But I guess any pitch is a terrible pitch if the hitter knows he is going to see it at some point in the AB. He didn’t miss.
Anyway – I guess the disappointing part of it for me is if you trade for Duran now why were you unwilling to do it earlier? We know why they kept saying no – Duran makes a smidgen less than Isaac does this year, but is projected in the next 2-3 years to really escalate in arbitration. Isaac is a year further along, and while a year less of control, was probably easier to control salary wise. Their target was always Abreu because he makes so much less. But now is the time to say to hell with the tax? I think there was a consensus that this team could have its struggles. We didn’t have enough offense, yet we trade Dubon for Allen, we move Sanchez for Loperfido, and while neither of those guys are the guys you really miss they were better than Allen and Loperfido. But now, it might be acceptable.
Really, they need Cam to get consistent. They need Yainer to act like a 6-7 hitter and not a 9 hitter. A Loperfido hot streak would help. They got something from all 3 yesterday, but when is the next time for any of them?
Of your list of OFers Chip – Moniak seems the most likely.
And honestly, if Boston called me tomorrow and wanted Bryan Abreu, just send me a bucket of popcorn. I trusted a 98 MPH Abreu with the keys to my heart. I don’t trust the 94 MPH Abreu to borrow a shovel. If they call and say Duran and Durbin for Paredes and Abreu, I’m in. But I don’t see the advantage in that move for them. They are not getting back in this thing this year, and Bryan Abreu is a FA.
IF I was going to make a move as a buyer, your biggest chip right now is probably Jason Schiavone. But me, I would rather move Schiavone from behind the plate, to LF, and see if that lottery ticket becomes a LFer for the next 10 years on Houston. Well, 5, because we won’t pay him unless he is mid-tier.
The players I would target – Sugano and Carson Benge. Sugano pushes Teng back to the bullpen and helps that problem too. Sugano only costs 5M, and gives Imai someone to at least talk to about the move over and how he handled it. Benge is the one that will cost you, but you move prospects for a guy that you would have 5 years of control on. I would push Cam to CFer, and get Meyers out of this lineup. If I could send New York something like Meyers, Ullola and Pecko, maybe that’s enough. If I end up having to replace Ullola for Neyens or Alvarez, so be it, Benge is my “prospect” anyway.
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It is pitiful in that Brown, in place of Crane, thinks that backing into the playoffs, this season, is the thing to do. The reward will be a one and done appearance and total playoff misses for the next two – three seasons.
Go ahead and sell this season. Bring in new prospects that will bring hope for prolonged playoff runs for 2028 and beyond. I skip 2027 because there will be a lockout.
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sarge, it appears that Dana has made the decision to buy. Of course, we’re still weeks away from implementing that decision and something can change.
But, yes, I agree that it’s mortgaging the future for now and ‘backing into the playoffs’ is not a good plan.
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The Astros have a mixed stew of things that don’t work together towards having a sustainable good future:
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Wait, Dan, are we still talking about the Astros, or did the conversation somehow shift to the Saints?
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The same type of conversation and isn’t that depressing?
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Is Brown saying the wrong thing? Which players on the team have value such that you can get a reasonable return. Crane could throw in the towel for some $.50 on the dollar cost savings on Paredes. He might get a good return for Hader, but the contract looks a lot better in light of recent FA reliever signings so keeping him and winning ballgames does make sense. Pena is involved in a lot of the team wins. Maybe you move him now if you think the 2026-2027 winter is canceled and the return is sufficient. As long as Brown doesn’t actually trade away prospects for someone who won’t help us in 2027 I can understand it. I’d really like some prospects to get excited about though…
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Burrows pitched like he was trying to keep a job. Wonder what he might be worth in a trade? Wonder if he pitched every week like he was trying to keep a job?
Seems to me the Astros need both an infield bat and an outfield bat if they want to really try and compete and win something, anything in 2026.
Maybe they don’t try to use existing use resources to collect more pitching. Maybe Abreu is off having a lobotomy and Blanco will be a force. Long shots both.
The Athletic published an article yesterday on their 50 players most likely to get traded by the deadline.
5. Pena
12. Paredes
13. Hader
20. Abreu
Apparently some folks still seem to think we’re sellers. I doubt it at this point.
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So, check me here, but if I’m looking at it right, the Astros have won their last FOUR series and five of the last six (the only loss is to the Angels).
And, they are now in the top half of the AL standings overall and only one game out of the Wild Card.
Hmmm. Yes, yes, they are still the Astros, but it’s all relative, especially since the AL is way off this year. Right now, they are merely the best of the worst, and climbing bit by bit.
Imagine the restraint it would take to sell, knowing all this, though.
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We had all talked about what would happen if the Astros made it to .500 by the Allstar game. It looks more realistic now than a month ago. Given that I don’t see how the Astros ca be buyers because they have little “currency” in the bank. No prospects to deal and no trading away current roster guys who you will need to make that push towards the playoffs. Also if Dana is allowed to trade away our future that spells Disaster with a capital “D”. Maybe there’s something there we don’t know but I have little confidence in our current GM. In the meantime I’m enjoying our current run of winning series. It would still be nice to rattle off a 6 -10 game winning streak.
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We often comment that Brown and Espada are probably making decisions as if their jobs are on the line. I know I’m not in his position, but I’d hope Brown is making the best decisions for the franchise knowing if Crane decides to let him go there would be multiple organizations ready to interview and hire him somewhere, even if it’s going back to scouting and player development. I don’t think Espada has that same sort of parachute. To your point, if Brown is feeling the hot seat and panics it could empty our farm system of what prospects we have for very little gain. This makes me nervous.
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dave, here’s a thought on Burrows. Would you trade him to, umm, Pittsburgh for their Competitive Balance Round pick (#34 in ’26 draft). And maybe a prospect?
If not Burrows, perhaps a bullpen arm, which is one thing Pittsburgh is looking for? Not Hader, of course, but another one?
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