But if spring training numbers mattered…

After spending the previous blog post convincing everyone that pre-season numbers don’t matter, let’s explore where the Astros are at this point in Spring Training.

And we are doing that ….why? Because there is not much else to write about …

Offense

How are those players we think will be in the starting lineup doing? (Thru Sunday)

  • Jose Altuve – .118 BA/ .285 OPS – Ouch
  • Yordan Alvarez – .091 BA/ .273 OPS – Double ouchie
  • Yainer Diaz – .077 BA/ .277 OPS – Well at least we have Walter Janek
  • Cristian Walker – .000 BA/ .125 OPS – Making sure we can’t trade him now
  • Jeremy Pena – .182 BA/ .432 OPS – A bit better, except he’s sitting most or all of ST out with his broken finger
  • Isaac Paredes – .125 BA/ .864 OPS – Not hitting, but is showing off his walking ability
  • Carlos Correa – .000 BA/ .250 OPS – He truly is leading the team this ST
  • Jake Meyers – .083 BA/ .237 OPS – Also not helping his trade value
  • Zach Cole – .143 BA/ .493 OPS – Not taking advantage this spring of a wide open OF
  • Joey Loperfido – .211 BA/ .558 OPS – Looks good vs. what else is being thrown out there this ST
  • Cam Smith – .278 BA/ .965 OPS – On the rise after a solid Sunday

This grouping of those most likely to make Opening Day have two homers (Paredes/ Smith) and 6 RBIs (3-Cole, 1-Paredes, 1-Smith, 1-Loperfido) total in 15 games. Yuck!

Starting Pitching

On the other hand, we will look at what the starting pitching has looked like so far (and will feel a lot better). I’m skipping the bullpen right now – will look at it farther along in ST.

  • Hunter Brown – After his brilliant Sunday start (4 IP, 0 hits, 9 Ks) he is sporting a 1.04 ERA in 3 starts
  • Tatsuya Imai – He’s only pitched 3 innings in his 2 starts, but has a 0.00 ERA. Now he can just build up from that
  • Mike Burrows – In 8.2 IP (same as Hunter) he has a 0.00 ERA has given up 3 hits and has 10 Ks
  • Colton Gordon – In 3 games (2 starts) he sports a 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP
  • Lance McCullers – He had a nice first start – a scoreless inning (after last season, that is a nice start), but…where is he? He has not appeared since.
  • Jason Alexander – 6.35 ERA in 3 starts, but all the runs came in his first brief start and he has been much better since.
  • A.J. Blubaugh – Has not started a game, but has to be on the short list to do so if needed. Continues his good numbers from 2025 with a 1.59 ERA so far.
  • Ryan Weiss – Also, has not started a game, but has put up a 0.00 ERA in a couple of appearances.

This snapshot of the team to date is scary when looking at the offense and very encouraging when looking at the starting pitching.

Just remember, if someone goes 5-for-10 over their next 10 ABs or gives up three runs in an inning, these numbers can flip in an instant.

Anyways – talk among yourselves.

←
→

22 responses to “But if spring training numbers mattered…”

  1. I’m going to try and ignore our lack of offense for another week. We can’t be the worst team in MLB since the Mets went 42 and 120 back in the day.

    But you guys need to let me in on the secret. The apparent super secret reincarnation of Lance J. McCullers Jr. None of you guys have told me what’s going on. Even Chandler Rome has not said a peep. We all know the stats. 8 official Spring Training pitches thrown. I inning. No sweat broken. When did we start hiding guys from the world? No photos? No drone video? No comments? Maybe Lance really has been reinvented. Maybe he’s a Cy Young candidate. As usual I’m dubious though. There’s another guy I’m wondering about too. What is El Reptil doing? He’s got no official stats Spring stats to date.

    I’ll going to hold off on my outfield thoughts for the time being too.

    As Steven would accurately say, I think we’ve got some pitching. That will keep us in enough games to give Dana Brown time to build an offense. Maybe.

    Like

    Reply

  2. Well, if my office was near the Ballpark at Palm Beach (or whatever it is called) – I might be able to report on things better daveb.

    Apparently, Javier does exist though not in a game yet. Abreu, Javier’s unique friendship has crossed both countries and decades – but…..he is shown as the starter for today’s game.

    And Lance is shown as the starter on Tuesday. So hang in there Sloopy

    The offense may improve if some of these “starters” play everyday rather than once in a while.

    Like

    Reply

    • Javier pitched against Venezuela last week. He didn’t look great, but didn’t look awful.

      https://www.mlb.com/stories/game/831440

      I’m going to continue to complain the hitters aren’t hitting. However, things are a little different these days. I don’t know if it’s the WBC or if it’s the new normal, but pitchers used to come into camp throwing lighter and work up to their normal velocity. Now we have guys hitting 99 on the radar gun in their first appearances of the spring. Obviously I question the validity of those readings some, but as a hitter going out there and having to face that kind of heat this early is difficult.

      Like

      Reply

      • Good points and I wasn’t thinking about whether the MLB vs. WCB exhibition were in the stats.

        Daveb – Javier against Venezuela (which has a strong lineup) 2 innings – 30 pitches – 1 run – 3 hits – 0 walks – 0 Ks

        Like

  5. Astros offense working today -10 runs – Correa and Paredes get above/to the Mendoza line. Loperfido had two hits including a home run and 3 RBIs, Trammel (.318 BA/ 1.059 OPS) continues a hot spring with another hit and 2 RBIs

    Weiss with 3 innings – 1 run – 6 Ks

    Peter Lambert – 3 more scoreless innings and the win

    Murray with a single shutout inning and 2 Ks

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • I watched Weiss a little. I’ve seen probably half his time. I like the stuff. Not in love with his command on all his pitches. He reminds me a lot of Arrighetti, though I think Spencer at his best and Ryan at his best, Spencer probably has just a little more punch.

      Mowing some guys down in the spring that will end up in the minors in short sample is one thing. We’ll see if it translates to regular season, every day players that get into a rhythm. Fingers crossed for him and Arrighetti both, I feel like by the end of the year, if the Astros are a playoff team, the two of them will have played a critical role getting us there, in whatever role that might be. Ryan Weiss has more velo than post surgeries Peacock did, probably not quite the same command though, but I can see him filling that role. Spot starts, filling in for some injuries, 2-3 innings here or there, even able to pitch a leverage 7th for when you need it. We didn’t know Brad Peacock was Brad Peacock until he became Brad Peacock either.

      Like

      Reply

      • That is an interesting comparison with Peacock. Brad battled injuries and some below average pitching as a younger pitcher. The Astros gave him 83 innings and 131 innings in 2013 and 2014 and he was not good.

        But finally at the age of 29 in the magical 2017 season he went 13-2 in that swing role between the bullpen and the rotation.

        Weiss struggled at all levels (except the MLB) and never really caught hold until last season in Korea. Can he at 29 years old put together a magical season (or even a solid season) for a team that is going to need it from a swing man? I wouldn’t bet against this coaching staff.

        Like

  6. It does indeed appear that Correa will be at SS on opening day and probably the first week. This is certainly good news for us. It’s bad news for Nick Allen as any willingness by the Astros and Correa both to let him play some SS makes Allen expendable.

    Its a roster of grandpas. Grandpas take a minute to get going in the morning – I know THIS crowd understands. Honestly I think the entire first month of the season may be scary unless one of these youngsters get hot. Correa hit .215 last April. Altuve had 25 Ks in April. We don’t even need to mention Walker’s April. The older you get, the longer in the season it goes before you start going. We could use Yordan and Cam to get off to good starts until grumpy’s start grumpying. Pitching is going to need to carry the day.

    I still don’t know what to make of Cristian Javier. And it’s been years. Like, I know he has command. This guy has led the league in BAA before. You don’t do that by throwing hittable pitches. Good command isn’t just throwing strikes, its throwing good strikes. At this point in his career I was expecting him to be more aggressive in the zone. 52 pitches and not even finishing the 2nd inning is not what I’m expecting. The Astros are only going to have 7 dudes down there. We just can’t have Javier throw 4 innings and hit 100 pitches, McCullers do the same, Burrows get pulled after 75 pitches, it’s going to be a trainwreck down there, especially with 3 lefties that are all 1 inning guys and Abreu and Hader. And imagine being the manager at Sugar Land. The phone call between Dana Brown and Storey – I’m sending you Blubaugh for 10 days because he threw 3 yesterday, and I need to get a body up here for tomorrow. Sure, send me Alexander, so don’t use him today. No, don’t use Blubaugh for the next 10, I’m getting him back up here. Who do I want you to pitch then? I don’t care, the peanut vendor?

    I would consider splitting Imai and Brown in the rotation, not back to back. I guess back to back might give you a reprieve, but it also might make you have to manage 4 games in a row. Certainly there will be games where some of them are on, and finish 7, but more times than not, probably 2 of the 4 spots a week you have to go through, you can’t expect 6 much less 5. And don’t let some 2 inning or less start come along and ruin the rest of the week. This is where we will miss Framber the most. Getting to the back guys by himself and not needing a bridge middle reliever. It’s the main reason the Astros were a plus .600 team in his starts while someone like Blake Snell and electric stuff and Cy Young’s has plodded along at barely over .500. Snell relies on middle relievers.

    Like

    Reply

    • I think Espada will continue to manage every game as if it’s the only game on the schedule for the whole year. I like your idea of splitting Brown and Imai. I don’t know how well it works in practice, but I might be inclined to have Espada deliver the news to some of the more suspect pitchers that if it’s not their night they might be giving up 10 runs but they’re going to be pitching a full 5 innings from time to time. If we burn out the arms in our bullpen early, again, we’ll be watching other teams play meaningful games in October again.

      Like

      Reply

  7. Steven – great points. I will be interested to see how they use Weiss, who appears to be deserving of a starting spot, but probably won’t get it. Will he be the guy who comes in – in the third inning and go 4 or 5?

    Do we need to send all the vets to the Equator to get their circulation rolling early in the season?

    Devin – Joe won’t do that (though he probably should) as far as leaving a pitcher in to suck up innings and runs. He never has and I don’t expect it now.

    Like

    Reply

  9. Rather interesting – Joe Espada in answering questions about Correa playing SS yesterday – he basically said we have a SS and it’s not him (Correa). I assume someone was asking about Correa playing SS more than as a sub.

    Like

    Reply

  10. Lance McCullers Jr. update today

    3 innings / 52 pitches – decent / 2 runs (on a two run homer)/ 4 Ks – good / 1 walk – good

    Like

    Reply

    • I watched Lance pitch today. Was glad to see the 52 pitches. He was not sharp, but that can’t be expected yet. I’m guessing he’ll be in the rotation, at least initially. That would mean his first start will come in about 21 days. So he’s got three weeks to throw 75-80 good, sharp pitches, and hit 95 regularly. I just think he’s going to hang around the rotation somewhere between help and hinder.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  11. I guess this is how I would describe Ryan Weiss (and that Peacock comparison I made)…

    The reason pitchers are taught to chase velocity from a young age now is simple. Hunter Brown has days where he touches 98-99. Like every pitcher that has ever pitched, sometimes he plants a fastball belt high, middle of the plate by accident. But the percentage of hitters that can make him pay for that mistake at 99 is far less than the number of people that can make a pitcher pay for a 91 MPH mistake.

    Weiss reminds me of a guy who was taught to chase velocity. Its obvious he learned to throw. It’s less obvious he learned to pitch. I might have a revisionist memory of this based on bias towards throwers but Peacock could touch the upper 90s as a prospect in the Nats system, and even in Oakland. But his results were, as typical for throwers that can’t pitch, terrible. Sure, you get some fastballs by guys, but eventually throwing either a foot off the plate or right down the middle will lead to BBs and hits. Your BB/9 and your BAA are similarily bad. Then he comes to Houston, deals with injuries that sapped a little of that velo, and after two years is fighting to make the opening day roster. At this point, he is down to 93-94 and throwing is not having the results he wants. He learns to pitch.

    Hunter Brown was throwing. He was on the verge of getting demoted. I think he knew, when his ERA was 8.04, that he had to pitch to survive. He changed up pitch sequencing to feature things he had more command of, and learned to spot the two seamer, threw less of the 4. Command doesn’t always come by necessity, but sometimes it does. My fear of the Ryan Weiss of the world, 90% of them end up at Jiffy Lube. A small percentage learn to pitch. I know the stats are good so far in ST, and people are clamoring for him to have an opening day roster spot – but the guy I’ve seen, he is still throwing. Throwing works in short sample. But eventually, missing the plate by a foot, then throwing one down the middle of the plate but getting away with it, then making a good pitch to get someone out, well eventually it turns into not even getting to that third or subsequent pitch because you walk them and/or start giving up hits.

    He could still just be working on some things in ST, and thats why I’ve seen pitches that don’t seem to challenge the hitter on whether to offer or not at the pitch. I do know, if I look at the things that to me define command, BB/9 and BAA, both of those were very good for him in the KBO last year. It’s not really about what he does in an inning this day, or 2 the next or 3 after. It’s about 170. And, at least in the KBO, he made some balls look like strikes and some strikes look like balls. He stayed close enough to challenge hitters to make a choice, and enough of them chose wrong. That’s how you create strings of 1-2-3 innings. When it comes to Ryan Weiss, I don’t think its a fair comparison to Peacock as nothing is really similar except the age, but Peacock reminds us that command shows up at funny times, even sometimes at the age of 29.

    I’ll remain skeptical, but optimistic. The arm talent is there.

    Like

    Reply

  14. Sarge, I’m finding myself in the same boat. It seems like this may be more of patchwork team than a tightly-woven group.

    Perhaps if we were behind the scenes in some of the meetings, we’d understand better, but it’s hard to understand where they are going. More importantly, it’s difficult to understand where they (Crane, Brown et al) want to take the organization.

    You’re always building the plane while it’s flying these days, but some of the parts are old and weathered and the “parts” you should be nurturing (e.g. Paredes, Smith, and others) seem to be somewhat of a misfit right now.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

Leave a reply to Chip Bailey Cancel reply