What the Experts Are Saying Trade-wise…..

Earlier today, our buddy and the blog’s founder, Chip Bailey, pointed me to a “prospective” article on ESPN.

Of the seven proposed trades, three involve the Astros, which makes the article of interest to fans around these parts.

Let’s take a look at the three proposed trades for the Astros:

  1. 3B Isaac Paredes and cash to the Pirates for LHP Hunter Barco and 3B Jared Triolo

So, let’s see, we are going to trade Paredes, a good-looking bat, along with some bucks to buy down a not-so-high salary for a left-handed starter, Barco, who has only pitched 3 innings in the majors, and for a good glove, not so great hitting 3B in Triolo, who will be arb-eligible in 2027.

Pluses – Barco has 6 seasons of team control, and Triolo has 4 seasons (if they still want him). Barco is a lefty, and the team is short of lefty starters with Framber Valdez gone. Also, perhaps Triolo will be less of a problem to sit and backup, second, third, and SS, than Paredes.

Minuses – Barco was OK at AAA, but (and stop me if you have heard this before) his 5+ walks per 9 innings in the minors do not bode well for the future or in distinguishing him from all the current pitchers fighting it out for the fifth and sixth spots in the Astros rotation.  Triolo is either a better-hitting Nick Allen or a much-worse-hitting Isaac Paredes. And the thing about the Astros is that unlike when they pick up pitchers and improve them, hitters come in and perform the same or often worse here.

Dan P says – Nope! If we are going to trade Paredes lets get something we need like a lefty OF and/or a big arm reliever.

Tough for Dan P to look down on any trade of Walker. The only question about the 2025 season – was this a season where Walker had reduced stats because of his age or because he struggled with playing in his new digs, Daiken Park? His stats on the road were comparable to his career numbers – .265 BA/ .311 OBP/ .793 OPS/ 19 HRs / 54 RBIs.His stats at home were just plain bad – .202 BA/ .279 OBP/ .622 OPS/ 8 HRs/ 34 RBIs. Was he just overwhelmed by trying to pull balls into the Crawford Boxes? Otherwise, I would like to see Paredes’ bat in the lineup everyday.

Pluses – Walker came across as Jose Abreu 2.0 in his first season in Houston and his 177 Ks was especially off-putting. Anyway, to off-load most of the 2 yrs/$40 million left on his contract is attractive. Rodriguez looked quite good in a short call-up with the big club and is fully controllable. He is just 22 and pitched solidly at AA and AAA in 2025.

Minuses – If Walker had hit the same at home as he did on the road, he would be around 40 homers and 110 RBIs. That would look good in this lineup. Rodriguez did have a low K rate at AAA in 2025, but that could be based on a small sample size.

Dan P says this is a decent trade, especially if the Astros are sending half of Walker’s salary along with him. Is it the best choice? I don’t know.

This is a rather odd, suggested trade, since the Angels 3 weeks ago traded LHP Brock Burke and Minor league RHP Chris Clark in a three team trade to bring Josh Lowe back to them. Did he already disappoint them enough to send him packing? Not likely.

Pluses – Lowe hits left-handed. He has played all three OF positions in the majors (Meyers has only played CF). Lowe would only make $2.6 million in 2026 as compared to $3.5 million for Meyers. Lowe is a year and a half younger and has an additional season of control.

Minuses – Meyers is coming off his best hitting season in the majors (though he may be set to regress to the mean). Meyers has been a premier fielder in CF (with a noodle arm).  Lowe, after having a Chas McCormick-ish 2023 (20 HRs, 83 RBIs, .835 OPS) has had two seasons of fast diminishing returns.

Dan P says even if the Angels want to send Lowe packing, do the Astros want to latch onto someone whose hitting is on a downward spiral, even if he hits left-handed? Isn’t that how they got Jesus Sanchez? Dan P says – no.

That’s what Dan P thinks. Your turn….

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37 responses to “What the Experts Are Saying Trade-wise…..”

  1. If Parades is traded, the Astros MUST get, at least, a very good return for him, even if it is only minor leaguers coming over, and promising ones at that.

    Walker, on the other hand, should be traded for a water cooler if the other club would take his entire salary.

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  2. I just don’t think the Astros have much of what other teams want. That makes it hard to make trades. That’s my take Dan.

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  3. None of the trades for Parades makes since at all. They would have to get a left handed OFer. Getting pitching is great but would have to be someone the coaches think they can shape into a mid rotation guy. The trade for Walker is just a salary dump so that’s ok. The Red Sox and Pirates still need a 3B.

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  4. William – around the same time you were commenting – the Red Sox withdrew from the Paredes competition.

    Red Sox Acquire Caleb Durbin In Six-Player Trade – MLB Trade Rumors

    At this point, the Astros may float along as-is and see if a major 1B or 3B goes down and re-engage to trade Walker or Paredes. This could go on well into the season.

    (Now I’ve done it – there should be a trade announced on mlbtraderumor for Paredes any minute now)

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  6. Jonah Heim to Atlanta to be a backup there, apparently, but no official announcement has been made so dollars/years is unknown. Our catching situation concerns me a bit. Aaron Civale for $6M to the A’s who many will remember I was suggesting was a good fit for the Astros. I think he would have been a safer pick with lower ceiling than a couple guys we got, but I’m not complaining.

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  7. So JV is headed to Detroit on a one-year/$13 million deal…but I have other questions…

    It seems the Astros are heating up conversations about trading Paredes for a left-handed outfield bat.

    But isn’t that just trading an overloaded infield to overload your outfield? Adding a lefty-hitting OF would mean other player(s) have to go, right?

    You’ve got Cam Smith, Jake Meyers, Zach Cole slated to start by all accounts, but Jesus Sanchez (lefty-hitting, by the way) will get a large number of ABs you’d think.

    So…
    • Smith.
    • Meyers.
    • Cole.
    • Sanchez.
    • A starting lefty.

    This would appear to push Cole and Sanchez (?) to the bench?

    It just seems like Paredes should bring a much bigger haul than what we’re hearing.

    What am I missing here?

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    • I’m not sure if we can assume Zach Cole is slated for anything at this point. But I think we can assume that if Jake Meyers is still on the team come Opening Day, he’ll start in center. While Jake does not hit much, Cole has not hit enough. And we don’t know if Cam Smith will hit enough. Or Sanchez or Zach Dezenzo. So if anyone out there wants Paredes and has a reliable left-handed bat that plays serviceable defense, then Paredes is available and maybe even Jake as a throw in. We can forget about Duran or Abreu, right?

      Chip, I’m not sure if anyone else thinks as much of Paredes as us Astro homies do. It’s looking that way. Or else, and this is a reach out of nowhere, maybe Isaac never has gotten fully healthy after deciding not to have surgery on the hamstring.

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  8. Just realized that JV will slot in behind Skubal and Framber…right next to Jack Flaherty. Not a bad 1-2-3-4 punch if they stay healthy.

    JV wasn’t bad in the last half…4-3 over 73 IP/2.60 ERA in last 13 games.

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    • $2M salary in 2026 with the other $11M deferred to 2030. Based on how much Jim Crane paid JV there’s no reason he should need the money now, but I’m getting tired of the deferrals.

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  9. Maybe it’s time to look at getting some “good” prospects for Paredes rather than a left handed bat. If we need someone at the trade deadline then pull the pin but I’d want some of those upper level prospects. The future is not now but down the road a couple of years.

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    • What if Walker and Paredes don’t really like each other? I have no clue, but Rome keeps saying keeping both guys would be untenable. Who knows?

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  10. I just don’t get where these rumors are going. Duran would have been a sidegraee at least. Abreu would gave been a slight downgrade at the plate, but helped your lineup construction and payroll but the Red Sox seem fine having 5 OFers and 2 1Bs splitting 4 lineup spots.

    The names I’ve seen from rumors surrounding Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, or even one surrounding Minnesota are not even real upgrades over Sanchez and Cole.

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    • Steven, completely agree. That’s why I mentioned “What am I missing here?”

      Lost in all this discussion is that the Astros want to stay under the luxury tax, so with Paredes’ $9+ million, that could be a factor. BUT, I’d sure hate to let a guy of his quality leave just for $$$ considerations.

      He’s becoming the MLB version of the NFL’s Brandin Cooks, who’s now played on six different teams with good results.

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  11. I have to shake my head when I read about these players actually undergoing surgery right now. Santander and Lindor come to mind as they have been experiencing issues at the end of last season and could have had the needed surgeries, during the off season, to clear the issues up. Shame on the teams’ upper management for not getting these done in a timely manner.

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  12. Good morning. Yesterday Dana commented that trade talks had slowed, but he did not rule out the possibility of a deal coming together sometime during Spring Training. So either that means a deal is imminent or yeah, maybe the Astros think Paredes is worth more than everyone else does. I continue to wonder if the league is comfortable with Isaac’s health.

    Speaking of health, Josh Hader is a few weeks behind schedule. Quite a few of us thought it might be wiser to allocate 19 million a year or so on multiple solid bullpen arms for a couple of years at a time rather than going all in on Hader. Hopefully a couple of weeks behind schedule is no big deal and his troubles are mostly behind him. But he has not pitched since August 8th and he’s not pitching now.

    I know. The cynic in me is coming out again. But I’m already feeling another season of patching. A lot of patching.

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  13. If the Astros get rid of their best hitter not named Yordan over a salary dump, I’m done with this administration. Josh Jordan said it best yesterday on Stone Cold Stros, the Astros are the only team investing significant money in mid-30s first baseman that are overpaid and underperform, this has Jeff Bagwell’s signature right on the front.

    I just don’t understand why this is a debate. Christian Walker was one of the worst everyday players in baseball for about 4 months. Like Jose Abreu in 2023, he sort of rebounded in August and September and drove his OPS over .700. But man, between Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes there is zero doubt which one you want taking 500 PAs next year. If you can find a way for both to do it – that decision is a purely money one because you don’t want to tell Crane we have failed yet again on a large contract for an aging first baseman. Not to mention, at this point in their careers, Isaac Paredes (.809 OPS entering his age 27 season) is a far more effective player than Carlos Correa (.734 OPS entering his age 31 season). Yet, here we are. The decision matrix for this organization needs to be re-matrixed.

    I think its very possible this franchise wins 88 games and does just enough to find themselves lose a first round playoff series. I think its also very possible that all these gambles, aged players with injury history and a bunch of unproven MLB starters that all have “potential”, result in a 75-80 win season and a remaking of the front office. Hopefully Dana Brown takes Jeff Bagwell with him.

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    • Steven, we know our club is full of question marks. Catcher position, the infield, the outfield, the pen, the rotation. Quite a few guys have to play at a level they have not in the past. The outfield has to hit major league pitching. Yordan and Walker and Correa and Altuve have to give us a solid year at the plate. Can they avoid injury and decline for a year? Pena has to keep hitting and not return to his career offensive norm. Assuming Paredes is around, he’s got to play as much as anyone. Health is huge, starting with Hader. We don’t want Abreu to have to close. We don’t want to have to put someone else in the 8th inning role. The domino effect compromises the entire relief staff. We might have a solid rotation. The rotation might save Dana. Dana might lose his job over the rotation.

      But I’ll also say this. Dana clearly has not had full control of this operation. If he goes home early, it will have been an organizational effort that put him on the couch.

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  14. I was watching the same Stone Cold Stros that you were and they all agreed that the downward trend of the Astros started with the “Bagwell GM”. Like a lot of sports teams; good players don’t necessarily make good managers or GM’s and vice versa. I can remember watching games when they had Abreu and Bagwell was in the booth saying “he’s going to come around and be a good hitter. Look at his previous stats and that speaks volumes” We’d been a whole lot better keeping Click IMO but there were to many “large egos” who thought they knew better. As of this writing , I’m not impressed with Brown either but is he on his own or at the command of certain “puppet masters”.

    Letting Paredes go will be a major mistake. DO NOT TRADE him! The rest of the league obviously knows that we are not dealing from a position of strength so we’d get very little in a trade. Keep him and hopefully we can unload Walker to some team that desperately needs a 1st baseman. Of course Walker could return to his former glory but I wouldn’t count on it.

    I have a question about the management of the Astros. We have: 3 executive VP’s, 3 Senior VP’s, 16 VP’s,1 senior director, 1 legal specialist, 3 Executive Assistants, 43 various in Baseball operations, 28 in Amateur Scouting, 31 in International Scouting, 17 Coaches, 9 Clubhouse, 21 in Sports medicine and performance, and another 160 or so in Marketing, IT, HR Operations, Ticket Sales, and a few lesser organizations. I never knew it took so many people to run a baseball team. No wonder ticket prices, parking, concessions, etc. cost so much. I’m flabbergasted!

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    • Well, first, its an MSN article, which is less credible and thought out as our speculation.

      But if that happened I would riot, unless there was about 3 real minor league prospects included. One year of a relief pitcher that likely wouldn’t even close, no thanks.

      But it would be perfect Dana Brown – trade your most patient bat and fan favorite for a guy that will pitch the 7th, albeit very well, get us used to the trifecta again in the 7-8-9 innings, then watch two of them walk away in the offseason because our bevy of overpaid mid 30s players prevent us from competing for them on the market. Then spend all offseason talking about how Bryan King is ready with his 92 MPH fastball to replace Abreu and there are candidates for the 7th. Its Astros ball yall (sorry Julia).

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    • We’re all prideful at times, but Dana can’t give away Paredes for nothing. Third base is such a shallow position that Alex Bregman is worth $35M annually to the Cubs. Paredes will make a quarter of that and likely put up an OPS in the same neighborhood. Unless he’s sure Christian Walker will outproduce Paredes or that he could not play 1B you can’t move him without getting a fair return. Look at the projected starting 3B for every team in the league and he’s arguably better than 20 of them. Making a dumb move because you overpaid for a few guys and put yourself in a financial bind would be inexcusable.

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      • Devin, the Bregman versus Paredes comparison is a solid one. But Brown has little bargaining power. Every other club knows he’s dying to move one of two guys. And nobody will take on even half of what Walker is getting paid. The Yankees re-upped Goldschmidt for four million. He got 12.5 from the Bombers last year. Old first basemen are cheap. And for his part, Walker this morning very politely noted that he expects to be at first base for the Astros come Opening Day and expects to play every day. This thing could turn into a debacle. And although Brown did not create this particular mess, I don’t have a whole lot of confidence that he’ll pull off a positive solution for the Astros. Right now he’s begging for a rash of first baseman injuries.

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      • Dave I’m just not convinced an injury to 1B would still be a catalyst to moving Walker. I just think teams are looking at the numbers. I’m not even going to think about the advanced metrics these guys have at hand, I’m just staying simple. His BB rates the last 4 years – 10.3, 9.4, 10.0, 6.3. His K rates – 19.6, 19.2, 24.1, 27.7. Arizona saw something we didn’t and wouldn’t even match the offer we gave to keep a fan favorite.

        Things aren’t happening to him the same way they did to Abreu. I don’t see the cliff and he is running towards it. But I don’t think that BB/K ratios are going to rebound. I think they are just redefining what he is, a guy whose ability to tell a ball from a strike is happening later in the pitch path, that the 20th of a second he has lost isn’t something you just recover, and he just is what he is. I think he can probably repeat what he did last year. Worst things have happened like our 1B spending a month hitting .115 before someone finally gives in. If he hits .230 with a .700 OPS but finds his way to 90 RBI at least its not Abreu.

        But this really isn’t about how unattractive Walker may be. This may be more about the fact that contending teams are more willing to just move guys. The Yankees are not playing Goldie at 1B except against lefties, they are going with Ben Rice, a converted catcher. The Red Sox will see mostly Contreras there, another conversion. The Mets signed Polanco and will play him with Vientos over there. All of these teams could have thrown some A ball prospect at Houston for Walker and didn’t bite. The Tigers are content playing a 25 year old, probably more of the old AAAA player we used to talk about, instead of talking Walker at even 10M. I really can’t even find a team that would have an injury to a first baseman that doesn’t already have another internal option better than Walker out there. Baseball is changing before our eyes. Positional flexibility is the king.

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  16. Well, well! There’s a trade, but it’s not Paredes!

    The Astros have traded Jesus Sanchez to Toronto for…wait for it!

    Joey Loperfido!

    Sanchez will earn $6.9 million this year. Loperfido? About $750,000.

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  17. Sanchez was the one outfielder that I thought would shake off his bad start in Houston and hit right handed pitching this year.

    As much as I like Joey Lops, he’s certainly not a guy we can rely on at this point, based on his quality short sample last season. I do like his on field demeanor though. But why were the Jays willing to unload him for Sanchez? Is this Dana building a war chest to replace Hader?

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  18. I’m rather confounded at this point. Ok, we’re saving six million moving Sanchez. But even with those nice stats over 96 at bats late last year, Joey Lops still went 4/27 BB/K. And I think Paredes will end up going at some point simply because he’s somewhat moveable and Walker does not seem to be. Are we improving our club or simply making moves for the sake of making moves?

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      • Its tough. On one hand, I was always a fan of Joey Loperfido as a dude. Just a baseball player. But – he can’t really tell a ball from a strike. That isn’t likely to change. Defensively, he is a far superior option to Sanchez, but I probably am too. He brings a lot more flexibility. He is primarily a CFer. He can play all 3. He can even play 1B and 2B in a pinch. He can pinch run. I think he is thought of as a plus defender at all 3 OF spots. Sanchez was none of that. Not to mention, Loperfido still has one option year left so he can spend much time in SL.

        The flipside, if I need one of them to stand in a batters box 500 times next year Sanchez would seem to be the more likely desired result, despite all the warts. But the gap probably isn’t huge – baseball reference projects Joey L as a .720 OPS for 2026, Sanchez at .730. I’m just thinking Sanchez would find himself standing on 1B more often and strikeout a bit less.

        I think the Astros won this trade if only for the control and salary relief. But this trade probably has very little impact on the 2026 season because the emergency button probably only gets used if Cam Smith fails, and we got bigger issues if that happens. I don’t think Brown thinks Joey L is his LFer and left handed bat he is still wanting.

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      • But yea, forgot to say, Devin, 100% agree. This is a head scratcher from Toronto. Its just a significant salary difference for two guys that are hard to compare because they are good and bad at different things.

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  19. I read so many negative comments about Walker and do not really understand much of it. The guy is perhaps overpaid for the production that the team got out of him last season. That said, he performed much better in the second half of the season ultimately leading the team in a few important offensive categories.

    The guy exhibits excellent plate discipline. Not sure I can say the same for Altuve, Diaz, Correa, or others. My perception is that those guys are virtually uncoachable when it comes to hitting. I do not think they will change. I would rather see Walker batting in a clutch situation than any of the others mentioned. He is not as prone to hitting a weak grounder, popping out or watching a third strike right down the middle as some of the aforementioned.

    I believe Walker will bat north of .250 this season and help the team considerably more than last season, again leading the team in some offensive categories. I think he just had an off half of a season.

    I saw Paredes in spring training last year. He looked great. Another guy that has good ABs. Would hate to lose him. The best trading chip the Stros have is Alverez. He would bring in a haul of players…..some of which might be on the field more than him.

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    • They were talking on Locked On this morning about how Cesar Salazar may have taken what Dana said to him at camp yesterday, which was work hard man your the back up now. Like, maybe, Cesar could have taken that as a bit of a slight. I don’t know, I don’t really care.

      To me, if Salazar is not your back up, you are probably losing him as he has no options, and that doesn’t help your organizational depth at the position which is pretty non-existent of major league ready guys (considering what you think a 35 year old Perez might have to give you). So you are only going to have one or the other of Salazar or his replacement. Would Jonah Heim really have been an upgrade in that spot? Or anyone that is out there?

      I tell you, one thing that can really cripple this offense, as disappointing it is that Yainer walks less than once a week, is if he misses 2 months to some injury, regardless who the back up is. Of course I want Bart from Pittsburgh, my goodness a catcher that CAN draw a walk! But he aint worth Issac no way no how. I don’t think Dana wants a “package” for Isaac, I think he wants a left fielder that bats left handed.

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  21. I’m going to have to keep an eye on Esmil Valencia this year. He’s one of the guys that went to the Fish for Sanchez at the deadline last year. At 19, he’s got a ways to go, but had an excellent 24 games in Jupiter late last summer. An outfielder. Of course.

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