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Astros 2024: What is more likely?

Today, we let our readers be the focal point of the post as we ask you which of these 2024 Astro scenarios is more likely to occur.

Which is more likely to occur…..

  1. Lance McCullers Jr. or Forrest Whitley pitches in a major league game for the Astros?

Lance, at least, has pitched in quite a few major league games for the Astros, many of them critical games and in the postseason. But he has missed a lot of time and he has not pitched in a game since he gave up 5 home runs in Game 3 of the 2022 World Series.  Forrest has been the next big thing since being drafted in the first round back in 2017, until he has become almost a joke between suspensions, injuries, surgeries, pandemic time off and plain bad performance.

Framber looked great in the 2022 Championship run and in half of the 2023 season, before falling off the second half of the season and through the playoffs. He might be the easier one to re-sign. On any team not containing Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker would be the best player on the team. He would be tougher to sign, due to wanting more years and more money than Valdez, but he might be the one player at his age (28 entering 2025) to whom Jim Crane will approve a longer contract.

Montero went from a critical bullpen cog in 2022 (5-2, 14 svs, 2.37 ERA) to a scary late inning option  in 2023 (3-3, 1 sv, 5.08 ERA).  Urquidy went from a solid 4th starter in 2022 (13-8, 3.94 ERA) to a mostly injured question mark in 2023 (3-3, 5.29 ERA). Both are pitching well in the 2024 Spring Training games.

  • Kyle Tucker puts up a 30/30 season or Chas McCormick puts up a 20/20 season.

Tucker came within one official scorer’s call of a 30/30 season with his 29 homers (plus a little league run around the bases) and 30 SBs in 2023. Chas, while not playing as much as he should have (by my estimation) ended up with 22 HRs and 19 SBs. So close for both.

Brown was one of the top Astros prospects with stuff and form reminiscent of Justin Verlander, when he was called up for a very successful cup of coffee in 2022. In 2023, he started off solid and ended up very meh (11-13, 5.09 ERA). France did not make the team out of the 2023 Spring Training, but he was one of the arms they brought up when the injury bug derailed them, making his debut on May 6th. He was one of the better and more consistent starters for the team with a 11-6, 3.83 ERA   that was a much more sparkling 2.75 ERA before a fall-off in his last 6 starts.

We assume that barring injury that Josh Hader will have the most saves on the staff based on Manager Joe Espada gifting him the main closer’s spot. We assume that Pressly will be given the most chances to save, when Hader is not available. But….Pressly is coming off a season where his velocity was down and his ERA was up (2.25 to 2.98 to 3.58) for the second season in a row, while Abreu improved a 1.94 ERA to a 1.75 ERA from 2022 to 2023.

Pena and Meyers both had 10 home runs in 2023, despite Pena having 577 ABs to Meyers 309 AB. Of course, Pena had 22 home runs in only 521 ABs in 2022, while Meyers had 6 HRs in only 146 ABs in 2021. There are arguments for both.

There you go – let me know which options you pick…..

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33 responses to “Astros 2024: What is more likely?”

  1. I immediately thought to respond to premise # 1 with Lance McCullers. And then I thought a bit. If Whitley gets healthy and has even a good month or two in AAA, I think he’ll debut before Lance gets back, because we seem to still have a pen issue or two. Maybe Dana will pick someone up, maybe not. But Forrest will get every benefit of the doubt, at least the way things look right now. I do not see a success story though. Too much weird stuff, including the latest injury. 

    A 200 inning ace is far more valuable than an All Star right fielder. But Tucker is far more reliable. So I go with Tucker.

    I think Urquidy is once again a key part of a solid rotation, whether he’s a 4th or 5th starter or even a guy that spends some of his time in the pen. He throws strikes and we need that. I also think Montero has a bounce back season.

    Unless the injury bug hits either guy, I expect both Tucker and Chas to hit your numbers.

    France will contribute, Hunter Brown will continue to mature and get better. A number three starter before the year is out?

    Pressly will be given more opportunities. Abreu might be the better pitcher by now though. Pressly.

    I’m still not sold on Jake. Pena will play everyday. Pena will hit at least 15. That said, to me, both of these guys should focus on getting on base in the 8th and 9th slots. Just think of the guys coming up after them. 

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  2. I’m sure Lance will pitch this year. Probably end up with 12-14 starts. The Astros seem hellbent on stuffing Whitley down our throats despite the fact that he has done absolutely nothing to earn a major league minimum salary. The pick is Lance, but I expect we see both.

    Tucker seems to have more steam from what we see in the media and while both seem likely to have good seasons Tucker is more consistent.

    Urquidy – because he hasn’t been paid yet. And Urquidy’s issues seemed to be all physical. Just the way he slumped that arm and shoulder walking off the field that day just seemed bad. Montero has no drive to be great.

    Brown has more upside. France seemed more prepared. When you are a 28 year old rookie you don’t have a window to fail, and he took advantage of that window. But Brown probably has the nod on long term investment.

    Should be Abreu, will probably be Pressly.

    Pena is going to get way more ABs, barring any injuries. I think by May the idea of Meyers playing 150 games will be a dream, and we will be seeing Chas in CF and Yordan in LF and whatever lefty bat makes the team (probably Singleton) at DH a bit – 3 times a week. To be honest a Meyers/Singleton platoon makes a lot of sense. Don’t forget the Astros have to get Dubon in the lineup 3-4 times week and a game in CF once a week seems likely.

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    • As I’ve commented before, every spring training the team and our local paper would put out fluff pieces saying why some non-prospect would be a breakout star and lead us to the World Series. Sometimes I fall for it. I still remember being convinced James Mouton would be in the running for the triple crown someday. I think Whitley is getting shoved down our throats because the team knows that this is their last chance to get anything out of him…whether it’s on the field or in trade with another team. The alternative to those articles is reading another one on how yoga or chai tea or something has fixed Jose Abreu and turned him back into a 25 year old.

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  4. McTaggert’s take on the 26 man roster.

    Predicting Astros 2024 Opening Day roster (mlb.com)

    Not a lot to argue about.

    Kessinger, has the most ABs so far in Spring Training and has been playing all over the infield including first base, but Julks has hit everything since the ST started. You already have the infield including 1B covered by Dubon and Singleton.

    I think he’s right Coleman is on the roster even though he’s not earned it – but if you have to have a lefty besides Hader in the bullpen – why Sousa when Mushinski has been much better?

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  5. Dan, you have pointed out where the 2024 Astro team is strong (question 6), an where it is vulnerable if not weak (questions 1-5, 7).

    1. McCullers or Whitley? Our rotation depth is just not there – and the idea that we might at some time have to count on either the oft-injured LMJ or the totally unreliable Whitley is disturbing.
    2. Valdez or Tucker? Either would be fine – but the problem is that THERE IS NO ONE BEHIND EITHER OF THEM TO PICK UP THE SLACK IF ONE OR BOTH DON’T SIGN. Our ‘#1’ OF prospect, Melton, has not looked good at all this spring; and while our top pitching prospect, Spencer Arrighetti, looked good early against A and AA opposition, when he finally faced ML quality hitters (against Philly) it was clear he is a long way away from prime time.
    3. Montero or Urquidy? Look, Montero is just as likely to give up a 5 runs as he is to put up a scoreless inning. Our middle bullpen needs someone more consistent – hopefully we’ll get that from Seth Martinez, Parker Mushinski, Rhett Kouba, or Wander Suero – but I’m not looking for anything but grief from Rafael Montero. As for Urquidy, he and Javier may well be our most consistent starter – esp. with JV out, Framber’s psychological problems, Hunter B’s inconsistency, and JP France’s tendency to tempt disaster with a high WHIP.
    4. Tucker 30/30 or McCormick 20/20? I don’t think we’ll see either. Tuck only hit 30 HRs once in the minors (2019 – in the PCL, where everything including the ball seems inflated)- and Chaz has never once stolen 20 bases – even in the minors.
    5. Hunter Brown or JP France? To me, this is kind of like asking whether Jon Singleton or Grae Kessinger is more likely to win the AL MVP award. The answer is neither. Compare the 2023 WHIPS – Brown’s was 1.362; France’s was 1.357. To ‘solidify a spot’ in the long-term rotation plans, one or both of these guys would have to step it up BIG TIME – drastically lowering WHIP.
    6. Pena or Meyers. Both of these guys were huge disappointments in 2023. Neither showed either consistent power or high OBP. We should consider that Pena is not our long term guy at SS, and that this needs to be Meyers last chance to prove he can play at a major league level.

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  6. A roster spot for Jon Singleton?

    Jon Singleton has played in parts of three major league seasons, and in none of those seasons has he even seriously threatened the Mendoza line. His lifetime BA is .170; his lifetime OBP is .286; and his lifetime OPS is .603. His lifetime SO per at bat percentage is over 33%.

    How is it not Joey Loperfido’s turn.

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    • He has close to 1100 professional at-bats so far. He was very good at Corpus, but didn’t immediately light it up at Sugarland. He needs to play everyday. It would be a shame to burn time on his clock for an uninspiring call-up. Maybe he can show he’s ready early on and push the Astros to make a real decision on Jake. The guy who likely would be next up for taking 1B full time is playing in the Mets system now. 

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  7. Interesting subject Dan.

    I believe Whitley will pitch before McCullers because this season is his last chance to do something or get chosen by another team during the next Rule 5 draft.

    Valdez would be the one that the club signs instead of Tucker. Tucker wants big money and long term financial security.

    Montero will bounce back due to his having more chances to do so over Urquidy.

    Tucker for the 30/30season!

    France appears to have more of a “bulldog” mentality than Brown. France in the long term rotation.

    Pressley over Abreu.

    Pena over Meyers. Meyers does not even have 20 jacks in his entire career.

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  10. For what it’s worth, I thought Montero threw pretty well tonight. He was not missing by a whole lot. Collectively, the pitching staff has got to get better at not throwing the ball away. We’re not very good defensively on the mound.

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    • I used to participate in a small league back before fantasy was an industry back in the 1980’s in Arkansas. A friend of mine had his own way of running the league and how he used the stats. He used to have to go get the Sporting News every week to have a source for his statistical updates.

      I just don’t have time for it now, Sarge.

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      • This is probably more info than most people need but I thought it was very cleverly done. Before the draft, my friend Kent would rate all the players with something that might have been an early version of WAR. He would pick out like 5 statistical categories – for instance BA, Runs, HRs, RBIs and SBs (this was before OBP and OPS and others were big deals). He would take the top three numbers for each category, from the previous three seasons in the league and average them. Say that was 48 SBs. Then a player from the previous season who had 48 SBs would be worth 1 pt in that category and if he had less or more it would be a ratio – like 24 SBs would be worth 0.5 pts, etc. He would then rate each player on the total of the 5 categories. If they were above 3 they were a Cat 1, between 2 and 3 a Cat 2 and below 2 for the previous season (and all rookies) they would be a Cat 3.

        When you drafted you had to cover all positions and a couple that could be wild cards. You had to cover each division (maybe two per division?) – it was an NL only league. And you could only have a certain number of Cat 1s. Cat 2.s and Cat 3s. It made drafting a bit of a difficult scramble.

        And during the season all players that you picked counted – you did not make them active or inactive and you could only make three replacements during the season, so you had to be real careful you were not caught with no replacements and a player went down.

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      • I was an Astros fan and he was a Cards fan so we had a lot more focus on the NL and it was a lot of manual work to do what he did for one league.

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      • One of my brothers and I had this great idea to play the entire NL season on Stratomatic in an effort to see how accurate the standings would turn out. I think this was in April of 1969 or so. We got through about a dozen games over two or three days before we got in an argument and went to battle with headlocks and nuggies. My mother shut the season down. 

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  12. Forrest Whitley does not have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft next fall because he is on the 40-man roster. He was granted a fourth option this year, which the Astros have used.

    They can give him a shot at the majors this season and he can stay thru ST in 2025 before they must finally make a decision on his future.

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  13. After last nights game the trio of Kessinger, Hensley and Cabbage are hitting a combined .148 with 3 walks and 36 strikeouts. I sure wish Will Wagner had shown up in camp with his bat.

    Loperfido tempts, but he would not get enough playing time in Houston at this point. Singleton looked terrible at first last night, but it looks like he’ll keep a job for now by default.

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    • Thats a real default too because Singleton is not tearing it up either. It is just ST and something tells me unless Singleton was horrible he has at least one fan in Brown.

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      • I guess the benefit of being a lefty bat playing for major league minimum.

        One thing positive is happening, at least he is over .200 for once. Short sample miracles.

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      • Good morning,

        Steven, if Abreu has some baseball left in him, the Astros will be fine from an offensive perspective. Singleton will mostly sit. He’s not a prospect, so sitting is not an issue for him. Hopefully we’ll have a healthy group in 2024, but with guys like Loperfido and Wagner handy, I suspect we’ll start seeing them sooner than later. And I’ll be surprised if Singleton is with the cub all season.

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      • If Singleton has any desire to have a job through the end of the season he should figure out how to get that bat square on that ball more often. I imagine that if he can, for once in his life, hit .250 the rest is there – he draw walks, has power.

        But I would say, with that track record, the chance that at 32 he is suddenly going to hit .250 is about the same as my boss walking in and suddenly insisting they need to double my salary. All he has really done in the last 2-3 years of baseball is exchange the strikeouts for lazy pop ups.

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  14. Joey Loperfido v. Jon Singleton [through 18 games this spring]:

    Loperfido – .381/.458/1.077 with 3 DBLs, a Triple, and 3 RBIs in 29 ABs

    Singleton – .217/.240/.4501 with 1 DBL and 3 RBIs in 23 ABs

    Jon, at age 32, has had his chance – multiple times – and failed miserably each time. Joey, at 24, should get his.

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    • Good morning 1oldpro,

      The situation is fluid! Perhaps Dana Brown thought at least one of his winter acquisitions would prove to be a diamond in the rough. But after including Dylan Coleman on his opening day roster on Wednesday, McTaggart had to report his reassignment on Thursday. Maybe the guy can still figure out how to throw strikes at Sugar Land.

      In the meantime, guys like France, Blanco and maybe even a Taylor Scott could be in the pen on March 28.

      I just wish that after spending that 95 million on Hader, the GM could have cobbled together 10 million or so dollars for a couple of more trusted guys to have in the pen to start the season. Then all we’d have to discuss would be the state of our bench.

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  16. The rumor mill is pumping on Snell to Astros.

    Brown was asked. He said when you have a Cy Young winner out there that he frequently just “checks in.”

    On one side, it’s not my money. If Crane wants to spend another 30M on a one year contract, because he thinks this year is THE year, so be it. It’s his money.

    My take on it is Blake Snell is a great pitcher. But being a great pitcher for 5 innings, at least speaking strictly statistically, has not made him a winner as much as a guy like Framber being consistently good (not great, but good) for 7 innings. Just too many times in his career Snell has handed the ball to pitchers you have never heard of, and it’s resulted in just 71 wins in 191 starts.

    Is Snell an upgrade over France or Urquidy? Of course. He has two freaking Cy Youngs. But is he worth blowing up the salary to the point that a Snell injury where he pitches only 15 games and decides to pick up a 30M option – a real danger – I don’t know. That pretty much puts the death knell on negotiating with guys you might want to extend, for example, a more impactful Framber Valdez.

    Some of these sites are just picking up stories they hear someone whispering. I feel like I don’t really want to think of that possibility unless I see it on a more reputable site first. But this latest rumor did also get mentioned in the Athletic, and they seem to be able to at least chat with some mid-level team people.

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