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Astros’ 2024 Spring Training: Relative concerns

In less than three weeks, on Thursday, March 28, the Astros will start the 2024 season for real against their close and personal friends – the New York Yankees. (My sarcastic font is on the blink again). This Spring Training has flown by, and it really won’t be long before some folks will be packing bags for the return to Houston, and others to various minor league destinations a hopeful phone call away from the bigs.

Here are a few questions for you about relative areas of concern…..

Are you more concerned about the health of Justin Verlander or the ability of Framber Valdez to overcome a bad second half of 2023, including the postseason?

We know that JV is only supposed to miss a short time, perhaps the minimum IL stint once the season begins. He has been very healthy most seasons….except when he hasn’t. He missed all of 2020 and 2021 with the exception of one start when he underwent his TJ surgery. He missed a chunk of the beginning of 2023 with an injury with the Mets. So, even though he is supposed to only miss a start or two, we worry.

The last time we saw Framber Valdez in games that counted, he was finishing off an 0-3, 9.00 ERA postseason by losing Game 6 of the ALCS against the St(rangers) that could have sent the Astros to a favored matchup in the World Series against the D’Backs. This came on the heels of a very un-Cy-like second half of the season – 5-5, 4.66 ERA. And so far, he has only one official appearance in Spring Training, giving up 5 runs in 1.1 innings.

Are you more concerned about Jose Abreu repeating the worst season of his career or having Yainer Diaz struggle under the weight of expectations while taking over the first-string spot behind the plate?

Abreu had harbingers of problems in 2022 when he went through a power outage in the second half of the season. He followed that up with a very uncharacteristic poor season in 2023, where he finally admitted he had a back injury and missed some time on the IL. As a friend of the blog, Steven has pointed out, Abreu’s bat showed signs of slowing down and struggling against the hard stuff in 2023. Did he find a new back and a new bat speed over the off-season?

I know that it was me, who told everyone to chill about pre-season games, but man, Yainer, please do something about that .100 BA/.100 OBP/ .400 OPS this spring. Help me to not worry that you have too much on your mind.

Are you more concerned about Rafael Montero coming back from a nasty fall-off in 2023 or about no one stepping up to suck up the effective innings lost when Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek left the team and Kendall Graveman went under the knife?

Montero had shown pedestrian seasons until he burst out with a terrific 2022 season as a critical cog in the Astros WS winning bullpen. He then was just plain terrible in 2023, though he did improve at the end of the season when it was too late to salvage good numbers for the season as a whole. This was particularly concerning after the team gave him too much money over too many years heading into 2023.

It has been well documented that the Astros let a lot of bullpen innings walk out of the building this off-season, along with the bad news relative to Graveman. This is beyond just finding innings and finding effective innings to fill out the bullpen. They don’t need to have a trio as good as Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu, but they sure don’t need a trio that gives games away before they get to that set of fine relievers.

So, what has got you more concerned about those three scenarios? Anything else?

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17 responses to “Astros’ 2024 Spring Training: Relative concerns”

  1. Good morning everyone, from the shadow of Reckling Park, home of the Owls. 

    This is a good post Dan!

    Even if Verlander ends up sitting out the first couple of months, I’m still more concerned about Framber. I go back to my rant of last November when I urged his trade. I am concerned about his ability to add game calling to his responsibilities, along with his control of baserunners, his poor defense on the mound and his overall demeanor. He’s a veteran that’s not.

    Yainer Diaz is a young, healthy, in shape baseball player with a whole lot of talent that we saw more often than not last year. But I think he only got 42 starts behind the plate in 2023. He’ll get in a groove and start hitting. He hits everywhere he goes, including Minute Maid Park. He’s got an excellent arm behind the plate and he’ll be willing to work and work and work with his pitchers to get a grasp of this base running issue we’ve been talking about. Prior management did not seem to think it was an issue apparently. We’ve got multiple starters that really have no idea how to keep runners close. 

    Jose Abreu has had a long and distinguished career. We’ll see how much he’s got left, but he’s the bigger concern. And the club seems to be a bit concerned too. Whether or not Cabbage can help remains to be seen, but he was brought in. Singleton is still around. Loperfido will be just across town in Sugar Land. Even Will Wagner has taken a turn over at first. Kessinger will likely be on the bench. And our catchers might be keeping a first base glove handy too.

    I’m actually pretty optimistic about Montero, because we need to be optimistic about Montero. The early part of the pen remains full of question marks. It would be nice to identify the fifth inning guy that will come in and limit damage, keeping a lead intact or keeping a game close. I miss Phil.

    Other concerns? I’m not thrilled abut Bregman allegedly putting on 23 pounds of muscle. I’ve seen those guys in the gym that don’t have an ounce of fat on them. They can’t move very well. And they sure can’t run. I’d really like to see our new number three hitter get off to a hot start on Opening Day this year. I don’t want to agonize as his swing gets fine-tuned into late July.

     

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    • Nice comment daveb.

      I too am concerned about Bregman – of course the worse year he has the better chance we keep him? (What a terrible thought)

      So you are in from the islands over near Rice – good area over there. Are you going to take in some college ball? Not even sure where the Owls are this week.

      On the basketball side the Coogs take on Kansas at home today trying to end the regular season as the #1 in the country. The Big 12 is a tough tough conference

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      • Yeah Dan, plenty of Owls ball. 15th, 17th, 19th. I’ll pick a nice warm day was long as the eye guy does not change my schedule!

         

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  2. I’m more concerned about Verlander’s health than I am about Framber. Health is something that can’t be readily fixed.

    Valdez is a seasoned professional and I think he is using a normal spring training to ramp up to a great year.

    I saw with my own eyes what Abreu looked like with a back injury and what he looked like without one. I think he will rebound.

    I think Diaz and Caratini are not concentrating on baserunners until opening day. We already know what they can do with their arms. Right now, the focus is getting their game ready to go with the pitching staff.

    Replacing Hector Neris with Montero is a concern, but, I believe he can do it. I trust a capable and experienced group of coaches to finish out the bullpen.

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  3. Yeah OP keep that optimism rolling - the way this team has performed you have history on your side.

    I was doing some errands listening to the Astros today Steve Sparks and someone who was not Robert Ford.
    The announcer talks about how the Cards game went more than 3 hours yesterday – unusual for Spring Training. It was due to a double ejection. He said to Sparks – I’ll give you one guess who the ump was. Sparks said – I know who it was

    https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/03/09/angel-hernandez-ejected-lance-lynn-twice-from-a-spring-training-game/

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    • I will say this – I saw Bregman’s first at bat yesterday and I don’t see the 23 pounds – it must be pure muscle, because he looks no bigger than he did last year.

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  5. My optimism is fueled by the idea that Houston has potential All-Stars at at least 8 positions on the field and more in the starting rotation and the bullpen. I think the team is stacked with talent and a new manager who might not hold back that talent.

    In times that are tough with inflation, Houston has set a record for season tickets. That is an indication that I am not alone in my assessment.

    When you have to look for something to worry about, it may be that we are being too picky. The Astros have their highest payroll ever this season by far. We also have a bunch of good (but not great) prospects high up in our minors who will be ready in a year or two to keep us going in this run.

    We also don’t owe any players $300-$700 million that will stymie our future.

    Crane and Luhnow promised us fans that the goal was to contend every year and I think he has delivered on that promise. Seven straight ALCS appearances has fueled my optimism.

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    • In spite of my sometimes cynical nature, I’m really high on this club. We’ve got a heck of a line up. We’ve got a back up catcher significantly more talented than our starting catcher in 2023. We’ve got a guy hitting 8th or 9th that posted a .323 OBP in a sophomore season where he struggled at the plate. I think Jeremy Pena will hit more. I think we’ll end up with a stronger bench, if not when the season starts, as it develops.

      We’ve again got good arms in the rotation. Urquidy will be more like the pre 2023 Urquidy. Brown will be better in his second full season. Reptil looks rejuvenated.

      We’ve got an excellent back end of the pen. And if we need a guy to snuff out a rally by the opposition, Brian Abreu might be the best guy in the league for that purpose, early or late.

      And we’ll be better in 2024 because we’ve got new leadership.

       

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  8. The stolen bases are annoying. It feels to me like there should be an unwritten rule you don’t steal too many bases in spring training. It’s kind of like when Steve Spurrier took over the NFL team in Washington and was trying to score as many points on the other team’s third stringers as possible.

    Any arm injury to a pitcher concerns me because it’s not like you work through them and eventually get back to full strength. I don’t mind the idea of Verlander missing a good number of weeks if he’ll be stronger in September though. Regarding Framber, to dave’s comment, he lost Maldonado but there is no reason he should be calling pitches in a game. He needs to just focus on throwing the pitch called where they want it and block out any other noise.

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  9. I don’t know with “more” concerned. I consider all of this as things that can go wrong. Framber has to handle bad innings better. JV knows his body better than any pitcher I’ve ever seen, he knows when he is at his best and when it’s not, and he generally doesn’t like to pitch unless everything is working like a machine. I don’t think even 35M will motivate him to pitch 140 bad innings, versus 100 good ones. We will get what we end up getting.

    Abreu is Abreu. The eye is slowed. The bat speed is still there, but he is reading pitches a tenth of a second slower. He hit more to the right side this year than any year in the past. He got handled by velocity more. He also responded to the adversity of being perhaps the worst regular the first 2 months of the season with a very good June and better than average July, when the team needed it most, before returning to a bad August and a modest .237 in September, though in September the power returned.

    The old Abreu is gone, much like the old Biggio was gone at 37. But Bidge made adjustments and sold out a little and utilized those Crawfords. It’s going to be how Abreu adjusts to not being 31 anymore. When you lose a smidgen of read time in the majors you are going to have to do more guessing on the pitch to speed up. Abreu had been, prior to last year, 109 runs better than the average player against fastballs. Last year, -8. His O-swing rate climbed 5% from the year prior. Just everything screams slower read time. Doesn’t mean he is going to fall off the cliff this year, but he is standing a little too close to it. Father time will remain undefeated, but while the old Abreu is gone, a new one that might walk a little less is there – he could be a little more consistent and finish north of .250 with some renewed power. There is still enough of him left to do that, just has to find his adjustment and be consistent in it.

    Yainer is a batting title talent. Pitchers are also going to have the book on him and feed him a steady diet of outside pitches. I’m sure everyone is telling him this, but everyone telling him this doesn’t have to stand in the box and face 97. It’s going to be fun to watch this kid progress into what I believe will be a top 25 talent in baseball, but even if it goes south a little because he is slow to adjust to the slider and starts seeing more of them he will undoubtedly feast on mistakes and be leagues better than Maldy.

    Montero still has stuff. He sat 95-96 in 2022, but had days where he was dialing 98-99. In 2023 I never saw any amped up days. I saw a guy with the exact same pitches but not the exact same motivation, and put pitches where he shouldn’t at times. The stuff is still there. Get that man some skull glasses, a cutoff leather jacket, and play wild thing when he is brought in. Get some attitude back.

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  10. In today’s news, Framber has decided (with help I’m sure) that he does not need to be calling his own pitches. All looked pretty good from Framber with Yainer at the controls on Monday.

    I fully agree on Verlander. He’s not worried about getting those 140 innings thrown. 

    If Abreu decides to hit the wall, we might have a lefty bat hitting the ball in Sugar Land, waiting on his opportunity. 

    We have options for most scenarios. 

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