The Chip in Chipalatta, Chip Bailey, who is the founder of this blog, has come forward to do what he did earlier in the year and has sent me a set of intriguing and difficult “interview” questions for your not-so-humble servant to address.
Thinking my way through the questions and my potential answers – this looks like a three-parter to me. So, here is Part 1 of the Chip / Dan P Q&A.
Q. Looking back over the past few years, can you identify a specific date or event (e.g., trade, signing, free agent, move, etc.) that marked the beginning of the Astros’ detour from standard bearer in the AL West?
A. The answer here probably depends on how much of an adherent to the Butterfly Effect I am. The Butterfly Effect was a concept from mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz that stated the formation and path of a tornado could be changed by the distant flapping of butterfly wings several weeks earlier. In other words, small changes at some time back can propagate to big changes in a domino fashion at a future date.
For instance, if I think that the loss of Jeff Luhnow was the first key step down this path, do I go back further and say it was due to the scandal coming out in 2020? Or back to the scandal occurring and Luhnow not stopping it (I don’t believe he did not know anything)? Or back to the Astros signing Carlos Beltran and bringing in Coach Alex Cora, who were the “brains” behind the sign stealing? Or going back to the culture developed by Luhnow himself as in anything goes to develop a winner, that might have made the Astros clubhouse ripe for some shenanigans? Or maybe the way the Commissioner only slapped the wrists of the Yankees and Red Sox over the Apple Watch scandal? How far back do we go?
In another sense, the question depends on me agreeing that the Astros are on a detour from standard bearers in the AL West. What if the Astros get healthy and go on a roll, and the Rangers continue sinking and the Astros win the division by 10 games?
While I don’t believe the team, with their rotten health luck this season is necessarily on a detour from dominance, I do agree they are the most vulnerable they have been in a long time. If I were to point at one thing that has affected this year’s stumble, it would be the decision to go through most of the off-season without a General Manager. The Astros announced they had parted ways with GM James Click on Nov. 11, 2022. They did not announce the hiring of Dana Brown until more than two months later, on January 26, 2023. My personal belief is that having a GM in place during that 2-1/2 month period might have helped us avoid the Montero signing (both his 3 years and his $13.5 MM per season for someone who had one good season out of his career) and the Abreu signing (a real GM might have noticed that Abreu had one HR the last two months of 2022 and would have tread lightly there). These two signings and the possibility that someone better and cheaper was not signed, along with their poor performances, have hamstrung the team in spots they were counting on and have moved them back to the pack in the AL West.
In truth, I believe when you have such success as the Astros have had, that there must be a natural fall-off. The later draft choices, the young cheap players becoming older and more expensive (or gone), and in the Astros’ case losing the two first and second-round choices in 2020 and 2021, which only hastened the slide.
Enuf said.
Q. Can this season be salvaged? And “salvaged” means going deep into the playoffs. How much wiggle room does the team have to make that happen?
A. Yes.
Okay, I feel like my son, who has what used to be called Asperger’s Syndrome. When he was young, we would ask him how he felt, and he would say, “Good”. We would ask him to expand on that, and he would say, “Very Good.”
I think that any team that makes the playoffs has a chance of going deep into the playoffs and winning it all. And I believe that the Astros are likely to make the playoffs.
As the Astros saw up close, the 2019 Washington Nationals came back from a 19-31 start to the season, including being 49-42 at this point in the season, to finish 93-69 and four games behind the Braves in the NL East. They won the single-game Wild Card game, took care of the top-notch Dodgers and the excellent Astros, and took the whole thing home. Heck, the 2020 Astros had no business in the playoffs but came within one more rally of digging out of a 3-0 rally and going to the World Series.
I believe they can go deep, especially because they have players who have been there before – over and over. But their wiggle room for getting into the playoffs is a lot less than in the past couple of seasons. The injuries, especially to the starting rotation, have left them very exposed. Along with the recent problems with Cristian Javier, the bigger worry is that so many young pitchers (Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco) are on a path to pitch a ton more innings than last season. That can be problematic from both a performance and a health standpoint.
Q. It’s obvious the team is getting older. Looking ahead, what does Brown do in the offseason?
A. When we think about sustainability, which has been the key to the Astros having such a fine, long run – this is a very important question. We discussed this in depth before this season.
Five critical items: Astros’ sustainability – CHIPALATTA
But when you drop in a direct question like that, it does make one wonder not only what Brown will do but what can he do? The draft he just completed, especially with taking nine of the first 10 college players, certainly leaned towards trying to get young players into the system, who might not be that far away from the bigs.
In the upcoming off-season, what is possible to make the team younger?
- Even if 36-year-old Michael Brantley comes back and performs down the stretch – he needs to be gone along with his $12 MM salary. He may be willing, but his body does not seem to be.
- The Astros need to re-sign 37-year-old Martin Maldonado – NOT! Maldy, you have run a good race (though slower than I would) and it is time to take your catching expertise to someone’s coaching staff. Catching should be in the hands of Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee.
- Beyond that, it is tough on the position player side, as no one is taking Jose Abreu off your hands unless he goes on a Yordan tear down the stretch at which time you would likely not be interested in moving him. Despite his injuries, Jose Altuve has been good when well, and the hope is that he won’t have these problems in a non-WBC year. The other “aging” position player we will discuss in a future question.
- The starting rotation is overall quite young, with the untouchable Framber Valdez turning 30 in November and Lance McCullers Jr., who is out for who knows how long, turning 30 in October.
- In the bullpen for the over-30 crowd, they have Pressly signed through 2024, and would probably like to re-sign Hector Neris, who has a player option that he probably won’t exercise. They will likely part ways with Ryne Stanek, and may lose Phil Maton, who becomes a FA. And, of course, they are stuck with Rafael Montero through 2025.
- Some folks might say that in the off-season, you should sign some younger free agents to become younger overall. Well, hold your horses, youngster. There are very few players under 30 available as free agents, and in general, those that are under 30 come with Carlos Correa and higher price tags.
- The biggest way for Dana Brown to make the team younger beyond unloading the folks mentioned above is to promote younger folks from within (some subset of Pedro Leon, Justin Dirden, Quincy Hamilton, Korey Lee, Drew Gilbert, Spencer Arrighetti, Joey Loperfido, Shay Whitcomb, Rhett Kouba, Colton Gordon…. You get the idea). Or…. trade for some younger players to fill the holes. But that is tough because younger players, even if they are blocked on other rosters are still considered the coin of the realm.
- This will be Brown’s biggest challenge as he waits for all those stars he just drafted (we hope) to make the leap to the big team.
So, how would you answer these questions from Chip? There are quite a few more questions to come in Parts 2 and 3, but we start here.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
30 responses to “Astros’ questions from the head Chip: Part 1”
A.J. Hinch. His inaction allowed the road to the present to become a much more difficult one. Had he stepped up and refused to allow his dugout to be compromised, one of two things likely would have been the outcome, back as far as 2017. The cheating would have stopped and this club today would still be looked at as an example for how to build and maintain a Major League franchise. Or, the club would have gone through a great internal battle back then with either the cheating stopped, or Hinch stepping away from a remarkably talented club with his own integrity intact.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I like your answer and would like to add to it.
If Hinch would have taken over the clubhouse and put Cora in his place the Red Sox probably would have not hired Cora, the Astros would have been a more together team and might have won again in 2018 or 2019 or both. We would, today, have 4 more top prospects in our system to wheel and deal with at the deadline and probably still have Luhnow as the GM.
LikeLike
Fully in agreement 1oldpro.
LikeLike
Can the season be salvaged? We’re 2 games behind the other team from Texas despite having a compromised roster for the entire season. The bullpen is still looking as strong as anyone else’s in the league. The aforementioned other team had a catcher who tallied more called strikes on pitches judged outside the strike zone than anyone else in the league in the first half. They have a few hitters putting up (likely) career years. They traded for Aroldis Chapman and signed Matt Bush because their bullpen is not in the same league as ours. Unless we have significant setbacks in the Alvarez and Altuve rehabs we should overtake them. If our starting pitching falls apart we could drop out of the race, but come September we should be in a significantly stronger position.
LikeLike
Yes, the season can be salvaged. I don’t know if going deep into then playoffs has the be the barometer though. Any entry into the post season would please me, and some good baseball being played by our guys. We’re underdogs now. I like that. But if Brown finds a difference maker for the rotation and at some point has a meeting with Dusty that reduces Maldonado’s time on the field, brings up replacements for guys like Hensley and Bligh and a healthy group of Astros enters the post season, no team would be thrilled to play then in round one or two or beyond.
LikeLike
Alas my longer sustainability post did not make the cut. I’ll try a streamlined version later.
LikeLike
Can we sustain? Yes. Don’t give Maldy a job. Don’t resign Brantley. See if we can pay half (or more) of Abreu’s salary and pull off a trade over the winter. Have Altuve spend more time at the DH with Alvarez. Power house! Get younger in the pen. Get Framber signed. See if Tucker has a realistic figure in mind that the Astros might be able to compromise with. Otherwise play out his contract and use our minor league guys to take over. Don’t resign an early aging Bregman. Brown will have find a guy to take over that job. Bring a guy in this year with a power hitting lefty bat that steals bases like an expert, one that has a better arm than any of our present outfielders and an excellent set of OBP and OPS stats in the minors that also plays all three outfield positions and second and first. He’s free. That’s a start towards sustainability.
LikeLike
The site sure does look slick!
LikeLiked by 2 people
Thanks to Chip for working on the “look” of the blog – he is still adjusting it but yes it does look slick.
LikeLike
What a sickening loss!
LikeLike
That was a sickening loss!
LikeLike
So bad I had to post it twice?
LikeLike
Good morning Dan. I just lost a relatively short post into wherever land. Maybe it’s just as well. The point was this:
I expected Framber to get pulled after 6 with that 9-3 lead. Perfect opportunity to get Montero out there and try to follow up on his good outing from last Sunday. I don’t think a few of those guys thought they’d be pitching last night. Instead, the pen is so suddenly a wreak. And of course, although he hit, the catcher just can’t catch reliability. We need a catcher that can catch. The shortstop seems to be in some kind of a lackadaisical funk. Our bench consists of Jake and three AAA guys. And it just seems that this club is dealing with some internal battles that are not allowing for a healthy work environment. Astro baseball teams don’t give those games back.
LikeLike
Thoughts
– Pressly should never have had to pitch – Going from 12 straight innings of no hit pitching to almost no out pitching
– It was pretty obvious that Peña was hurting when they went to check on him – why let him hit? Oh that’s right they have nobody they can trust to hit off the bench except Meyers and they wasted him running for Maldy
– It’s pretty bad when we wish Montero started an inning instead of Framber
– What will they do today? They’ve burned the bullpen at both ends the first two games of the series – and if Javier is not good today – oh Lotd
LikeLike
“Climbing Tal’s Hill” had an interesting take on Maldy. It looks like everyone wants him out and Diaz in. If we can’t get to the playoffs this year I’d list several reasons. Not necessarily in this order.
1. Injuries
2. Bad signings
3. No GM in the crucial months of the off season or letting Click go.
4. Crazy line ups.
5. Under performance of some veterans and some newer players
6. Calling up “very” marginals players while others with potential remain on the farm
7. Losing 2 draft choices in 20 and 21 due to “IT”
8. Yanier Diaz not getting to play almost everyday at catcher
9. The Manager
10. Some intangible that keeps us from winning or causing us to lose (Attitude)
11. Bull pen burn out or crisis in confidence
Anybody want to add, subtract or otherwise comment, please feel free to do so.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Heckuva good list, Z
Or bad list haha
LikeLike
Guys are looking great tonight, NOT.
1st inning – Bases loaded no outs. 1 run scored
2nd inning – Lead off double – 2K’s and a fly out
3rd inning – Bases loaded, 1 out, no runs
No way Bregman should be hitting second. But then again who do we have that can hit. Only option is Julks.
PATHETIC. It hurts to watch theses guys.
LikeLike
I think your #6 is very bold. I have been most reluctant to even bring it up.
The Braves had the audacity to bring Harris up last year and then replace their SS with youth. I think the Astros have been super timid at advancing their best prospects through fear of making mistakes that would reflect badly on the organization.
Of course, their best prospect have had the habit of injuring themselves lately.
I have a ton of questions about what they are doing in their minor leagues. And what they are doing is losing down there.
LikeLike
Pretty entertaining win with huge contributions from Tucker and lots of cursing at the TV from me. It’s a shame Anaheim had such a paltry crowd for the game.
LikeLike
WOW! I think I’ve aged 10 years in the last 3 hours. Thank goodness for Tucker, Chaz, and ….Bregman
LikeLiked by 1 person
You never know.
LikeLike
What a win – will comment more in the morning.
LikeLike
Seven of the Astros 20 draft picks signed on Saturday.
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-2023-draft-signings-tracker?t=mlb-draft-coverage
LikeLike
Montero got a win last night.
Chas has the highest OPS on the active roster.
Javier got 7 K’s and showed glimpses of what we need from him.
Maybe Pena should rest and Kessinger should get a week at short. Maybe he’ll hit.
How about a Brown/Diaz battery on Tuesday?
8 hits from Bregman and Tucker.
I can’t help but to confirm at this point that Jake really is not a smart baseball player.
I love game winning catches. We lose otherwise.
This team is certainly compromised and continues to be painful to watch at times. But they will not quit.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thoughts
– The resiliency of this team is truly amazing, even if their performances are up and down or shaky. They lost the game of the year (for the Angels) on Saturday, which could easily have ended up in a hangover 5 game losing streak. They start Sunday’s game leaving runners all over the bases, falling behind and then finally tying it on two opposite field homers by Chas and Meyers.
Side note – I hate the ballparks that have these walls with home run lines part of the way up – never quite sure what is out and what is in.
Then they fall in a 4 run hole, but dig out with big help from another Chas homer, a patient at bat ending in a walk for Madris, a clutch single by rookie Kessinger who did not let his error Saturday slow him down Sunday, the huge two out, first pitch homer by Bregman and then the massive shot by Tucker giving them the insurance run they would need. That one sounded like a gunshot rather than a hit.
– I hope the national audience really appreciated what they saw with Tucker. Getting to the corner to snag a home run from Moustakas, getting 4 hits including that game difference home run and then his flying superman catch on the last out of the game. And he’s finally almost hitting .300.
– Like daveb said – now that Chas has finally gotten more steady employment he has been on a great roll. The team is 9-4 in his last 13 starts (out of 15 games) and in that time he is slashing .386 BA / .471 OBP/ 1.221 OPS with 11 runs scored/ 4 HRs / 11 RBIs. If Dusty sits him we should be storming the castle.
– Javier was not all the way back, but certainly better than the last few games he pitched.
– If you told me we had 4 innings covered by Kuhnel, Montero and Maton – I would be chalking this up as a loss. (Of course those guys gave up 5 runs – so it was really not them who won this game).
– I hope the day off (which is probably either a travel day or a rest day after flying over night) is a good one and the pitching rebounds on Tuesday. And the offense remembers what they did the last two games.
LikeLike
At some point last night they were talking about Tucker vs. Barria and said that he has the most home runs against him than any other pitcher he has faced – 5!!
I looked this up – against Barria after last night ….
Tucker has 14 Plate Appearances – 3 walks – 6 hits – 1 double – 5 HRs!!! – 8 RBIs
It is not only the most home runs he has against any pitcher he has faced – he has no more than 2 home runs against any other pitcher. He has two against Patrick Sandoval, Robbie (let me pitch against Yordan – I’ll take him out) Ray, Sam Moll, Kyle Wright and John King.
LikeLike
This season the inj bug has made it feel like this is not our year. But when I look at the standing the Stros are right there. We only get back one of three SP lost this season. Until I see Brantley playing I can only hope he makes it back. Our best hitter is fragile and Altuve is struggling to stay afloat. With the afore mentioned this lineup is formidable and will win. Even with two of the three.
What Brown does at the trade deadline will be telling (or not) given our limited resources. There will not be any TORP, elite bats or reliever’s coming this way via trade (make me a liar pls).
Win, lose or draw I’ll run with what they patch together the rest of the season.
I heard you Devin.! My wife thinks me mad screaming at the tv.
Zanuda. All the above
LikeLike
A few weeks ago I read an article (forgot to post) about Pena. Discussed his Expected offense this season after his monster finish last yr. Based on his metrics the expectations were drab (Steven pointed this out not long ago). To date Pena has not disappointed those dreary expectations. The author of that post, like the commenters, were hopeful Pena would prove them wrong. I would love nothing more than for Pena to prove them wrong.
Lastly, Father Time imposes his will on us all if we live long enough. Maldy looks old and his timing def has slowed considerably. Dusty, your loyalty be darned. Play Diaz! Do the math! The numbers don’t lie. Yes, it’s sometimes painful to watch Diaz’s AB’s (Devin and I put Diaz on blast from the sofa at bad swings), but he makes up for it with hits and HR’s and great def.
I doubt very seriously the TORP’s will complain about Diaz catching them, esp Brown. He needs to put in the work for our WS run this season, thank you very much!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Diaz has thrown out 42% of baserunners. the MLB average is 21%
Looking at his stats, if he had played the number of innings Maldonado had played, the Astros would be in first place and Diaz would have been an All-Star.
LikeLiked by 1 person
He’d also have been a leading Rookie of the Year candidate. He’ll never get that chance again. I think it was Devin who reminded me of that.
LikeLiked by 1 person