, ,

Astros’ questions from the head Chip: Part 2

The Chip in Chipalatta, Chip Bailey, who is the founder of this blog, has come forward to do what he did earlier in the year and has sent me a set of intriguing and difficult “interview” questions for your not-so-humble servant to address.

This will be Part 2 of the Chip / Dan P Q&A.

Q. Jim Crane has sometimes been compared to Jerry Jones (by me, among others) as a meddlesome owner. How much impact has that had on where the Astros are today?

A. There are some parallels between the two situations in that there were championships in both places, followed by Jerry Jones getting rid of Jimmy Johnson and Jim Crane getting rid of James Click.

But I think it is too soon to go all the way with that comparison. Jerry Jones made himself the GM when he bought the Cowboys, whereas Jim Crane was only part of an interim GM by committee in this off-season.

But that is not to say that is the only time Crane has stuck his nose into the GM’s business. Early on, he had Jeff Luhnow on a very restrictive budget. We know that he had a lot to do with the re-signing of Justin Verlander here. We know that Luhnow had to clear the increased budgets with Crane and that he had to buy into the Astros, bringing JV here in the first place as well as the trade for Zack Greinke.

I must believe that Crane and Luhnow were very aligned in how to deconstruct and then re-build this team (continuing the work begun under Ed Wade). In my heart of hearts, I don’t believe the team wins the championships under the Grocer or any of the other owners they had. Crane had a lot more baseball knowledge than his predecessor and invested heavily when it made sense.

But the basis of your question really has to do with whether Jim Crane’s ego will undo what has been built here. Jerry Jones had the one championship right after getting rid of Jimmy Johnson and then many seasons of not even winning a playoff game. We have to wonder whether Jim Crane will meddle too much or just enough. This was even a question in my mind when he ran Reid Ryan out of the front office in lieu of his own son.

Since this has been the best nine seasons of Astros’ baseball in their history, I am willing to cut Jim Crane some slack, but it is certainly worth watching.

Q. Alex Bregman is a far cry from his peak 2018-19 seasons. Some would call him mediocre, especially considering his $30.5M salary for this year (and next). Is it time to try to move on?

A. Ironic – I’m looking at this question the morning after Bregman produces four hits, including a two-out, ninth-inning homer to help flip this game with the Angels from the loss to the win column. This ties a bit into the question in the previous post on what Dana Brown might do to make the team younger.

Alex Bregman was arguably a top 5 talent in 2018 and 2019. Injuries led to missed time and lower production in 2020 and 2021, and though he was better in 2022, he was not the Bregman before his injuries.

In 2023, his slash stats are disappointing to date – .246 BA/ .341 OBP/ .739 OPS, all below his career norms. But when you look a bit further – you find that his 54 runs scored, 13 HRs, and 58 RBIs are on pace for a 93 run, 22 HR, and 100 RBI season, which is very solid. This is fueled by his slash with runners in scoring position (RISP) of .349 BA/ .482 OBP/ 1.075 OPS and his two outs RISP slash of .306 BA/.468 OBP/ .940 OPS. Those are all very strong numbers and not likely to be replaced effectively with in-house cheaper alternatives.

The $30 MM salary is what fuels the thought of moving him somewhere – though in my mind, I think the bigger question is how much and how long he is looking to extend his time here in Houston. It is unlikely he will want less than he is making right now and would want a long extension (5 years?). It is unlikely the team will want to pay him more than he is making right now and would only want that for a shorter time period – maybe 3 years – $75 MM.

I don’t see any way the team would move him right now, but I could sure see them thinking hard about it if they cannot extend him in the off-season and even more so as they approach the 2024 trade deadline, especially if they are not contending.

If I were a betting man, I would think he will play this contract out here and then wander off like Correa and Springer and ….all the others.

Q. Simple question: Is it time to move on from Dusty Baker? Would Crane pull the trigger during the season?

A. Complex answer? Second question first….no Crane will not pull the trigger during the season unless he discovers Dusty is paying Carlos Beltran as a sign-stealing consultant out of his own pocket or that Brandon Taubman is his love child. I just don’t see Crane doing this.

First question, second, yes, I think after this season, the Astros should move on from Dusty. I think he should have taken his highly desired championship and left on top after the 2022 season. My belief is that if they leave it up to Dusty, we may be having him wandering around doing his post-game interviews using a teleprompter in a few years. (Yes, that was a pointed comment.)

He is not doing a bad job, but I believe just as he was the best manager to recover from the scandal and when we had superior talent, that he may be a bit too old school and stuck in his ways in a time when we may have to scratch and claw for advantages. I don’t like how practically everyone but Dusty could see that Chas McCormick should be the full-time CF. I don’t like how everyone, but Dusty, can see that Martin Maldonado should be sitting more, and Yainer Diaz seeing more time at catcher. I don’t know why he didn’t sit Jose Abreu for a few games re-set when he was struggling so much in April and May.

Maybe I am being too hard on him, or maybe I am being too ageist about this. But I see signs of him slowing down and becoming more stubborn on quite a few fronts. But I’d like to see some fresh views from the dugout in 2024. If they don’t, I won’t have a hissy fit about it, but I will be watching him even more closely next season.

So, how would you answer these questions from Chip? There are a few more questions to come in Part 3, but today we continue here.

 

 

←
→

30 responses to “Astros’ questions from the head Chip: Part 2”

    • I have to take the signings as being “alleged” because I have seen so many lists that say a certain person is signed but then another says that person is not signed.

      Like

      Reply

  2. Jim Crane took over a moribund franchise from an owner that knew nothing of the game and had no interest in paying for an excellent product to put on the field.

    I disliked Crane when he got here. I thought we could rebuild while being respectable. I’m not sure if that was realistic. Ultimately, he delivered, his way, Luhnow’s way. And we’re still enjoying the benefits of the plan. Yeah, a bump this year, but the best teams get hit by injuries and sink. We’re still hanging in.

    But, I think Crane is quietly over involved. He screwed up this past winter. And who knows how much Click may have been undermined by Cranes guys? We might have lost a heck of a GM.

    And more pressing today is the Dusty Baker issue. Crane does not seem to want to touch this particular issue. He picks and chooses. If he got involved with the Baker issue, his new GM would have an easier job and the Astros would be in a better position today.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  3. It would be easier to comment on Bregman at the end of the season. Right now I’m really hoping that he’ll embrace the warmth of summer and go on a second half tear. But when I see a 16th percentile sprint speed and a 28 for arm strength and hard hit and barrel rates in the 20’s, I see a guy that is an old 29. And even with the good stuff he’s done on the season, the OPS+ is still 106. I’m guessing he’ll leave at the end of 2024.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • I say this intending no slight to Bregman…but which teams would pursue him at a rate he is seeking? He’s making a lot of money and I don’t know anything about his spending habits or investments, but a smart move for a guy who already has two WS rings would be to accept an offer fair to whichever team is in the city he wants to live. If he goes the Correa route I suspect he ends up very unhappy.

      Like

      Reply

  4. I really can’t add a whole lot to Dans comments on Dusty Baker. But most of our small group here are also older guys in or approaching Dusty’s age group. We grew up honoring fairness and integrity and loyalty, but not blind loyalty. I think maybe Dusty has lost track of his mission to a degree. His job is to make decisions based on what is best to get the most out of his 26 man roster. He’s failing in that regard. Our little group of baseball fans all knows pretty well what guys should be playing. It does continue to boggle my mind a bit when wrong decisions are made daily by a man with a half century of baseball knowledge. And worse, some of those decisions might be made out of spite. I’ll again say what Devin said last week. Yainer Diaz won’t be a rookie again. If he got even half the starts behind the plate this year, he might well be Rookie of the Year. He’s been treated unfairly. And he’s not the only one.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • I don’t know of any person on this blog that would disagree with you but I could be wrong. We see other clubs bringing up “hot” prospects and playing them a lot. Not true with our Astros. Didn’t Maldy make a comment at the first of the season voicing his displeasure with his apparent shortened playing time? I guess if we were the decision makers things already would have changed and if he didn’t like it then adios.
      Let’s see what happens on Tuesday.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  5. On Crane – it’s not often you get a owner who at least played baseball past Pony league. I think that helps. I don’t know that he is too meddlesome; I would say he probably got on the gas a little fast when he was GM-less. I don’t know that a GM wouldn’t have given Abreu and Montero that money, there are plenty of bad contracts around baseball. Steve Phillips can do nothing but sit in a studio and talk about baseball for pennies compared to his GM salary because the Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla.

    It was a rough time when he bought the team. He told us he would spend when it was time. They were the great project. But he and Luhnow got it right. You see this in every sport. There are teams that try and buy championships, like the Mets are doing, try and shortcut it by just handing out crazy contracts – and there are teams like us and the Braves and the Rays that understand that MOST of your team has to be built from the inside with a core and then sprinkle in a veteran or two like Brantley or Verlander.

    Bregman is fine. He probably won’t get any WAR/per dollar awards but he is far from the biggest issue on this team. And even in a down year a .341 OBP means that between the aggravating pop ups he is drawing some walks. It also means he is getting good pitch counts per at bat. He isn’t quite the guy at 3B he was three years ago but his arm is still good. You can tell there is diminished play – he isn’t going left and right the same, some days he runs like it hurts to run, he isn’t driving the ball with the same power, and the pop ups. Man the pop ups. But he can tell a ball from a strike better than anyone else on the team and he can still take advantage of mistakes. You can say the same about Abreu as long as we don’t ever see April and May Abreu again.

    The one thing I don’t get – early in the season when Bregman was really scuffling, he spent two games with his bat down – and he seemed to get some drive back in swing by changing the swing plane and getting to the zone faster, than for some reason it went right back up. I do get it, adjustments from life long habits can be hard, I mean I can’t put the Dr. Pepper down, but he had something.

    Like

    Reply

  6. I can’t talk about Dusty without being, as my wife says, an asshat. Guy has been fired from multiple jobs for a reason. He is a lifelong manager of “got good players, good manager, have bad players, bad manager.” He was probably what they needed after firing Hinch because he is respected around baseball circles. But he is a 1985 manager, not a 2023 manager. Like, as Maldonado has gotten worse, his playing time has increased. Sound reasoning? If you read between the lines this was the hiccup that Vazquez had with Dusty – there is a love affair between Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado – to the point that he doesn’t believe another catcher would be better. He has this “concern” that the rotation wants Maldy – these guys are professional ball players – it’s not like they were throwing to Maldy in little league – everyone one of them have had dozens of catchers. They can throw to other people. At this point I feel like he is doing this just to spite the media because it is on every blog site, fan board, and Houston paper that it’s time to move on from Maldy.

    There was zero reason for Framber to walk out there in the 7th inning of a 9-3 lead after 91 pitches in the first 6. The bullpen at the moment was not strapped. He wasn’t going to have to parse outs. And he could give his ace a just a little short day. Instead Framber promptly gets beat up in the 7th, and the Angels get some momentum that carried over to the beating up the bullpen guys. Dusty Baker is one of the worst in game managers in the league, even if he is a people person.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  7. And a few comments about pt1 since I wasn’t online the last few days –

    We are still the class of the AL West. I think there is a better than 50% chance we win the division. One – the Rangers have gotten so much better. But two – we have replaced the Springers, Correas, Verlanders, Coles, Mortons, with really good guys, just not quite as good guys. It’s like that all around. Now – we have developed a new crop, Yordan, Framber, Kyle, these guys aren’t going to let it go – and Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, even if not playing as well (or at all) the culture is still floating around. I am not convinced that the Rangers pitching is good enough to keep it up in August and September, and they will open a door when they get to just 93-94 wins, but will we be able to walk through?

    I am sure they make the playoffs; will they do it as a WC or division winner, I am not sure. That said, I don’t expect a deep run, maybe even a first round exit. The pitching is just too much up against the ropes. They are either tired or underperforming. A lot of our bullpen guys are approaching career highs in appearances and innings in July – and the offense isn’t helping – they are creating a ton more leverage innings late by not getting some runs on the board with more frequency.

    I do see them getting younger. I am not sure Brantley will want to play anymore. He is putting in a lot of work only to get aggravated that things don’t heal like they did when he was 26. I can’t see a scenario where he is back unless it involves a 2M salary or less, and I don’t think that happens. Maldy is probably playing his last season as well. We are stuck with Abreu, but if you are stuck with June/July Abreu it could be worse, you could be stuck with April/May Abreu. This team really isn’t old. It’s hurt. This rotation can be the class of baseball, but it has to be healthy to be that.

    Overall, Jeff Luhnow turned me from the old glass half empty guy to the new glass half full guy.

    Like

    Reply

  8. I don’t see a deep run either Steven. That’s why I’m hoping Dana B does not give up much in deadline deal(s).

    Like

    Reply

    • I wouldn’t make any deadline deals that significantly weaken our team for 2024, but I would suggest that anything can happen when you get to the playoffs. I don’t see the trade chips out there to pick up a Cease or Burnes. I also don’t expect Manfred to allow other teams to help the Astros based on his recent performances. Fortunately, getting some players off the Injured List might provide a bigger boost than any other team could achieve in a deadline deal. I’d feel better if we had a competent left in the bullpen, but I’d rather have no lefties and rely on Maton and Abreu in the postseason than go out and get another gas can just to try to appease conventional wisdom.

      Like

      Reply

    • Agreed. I just think in a short series we are going to have 2 close games and we are going to have a game where a pitcher gives up a 4 spot in the 3rd or 4th inning and we will be wondering how we lost a series 3 games to 1 to Tampa. I don’t think 1 or 2 players can make the difference – what can is health. Altuve and Alvarez in the lineup but most importantly you needed McCullers and Garcia in the rotation for the playoffs. Urquidy, Brown, France, these guys are great to have, they help get you there, but they are susceptible. And who knows where Javier will be come playoff time, but it could very well be the IL.

      Like

      Reply

  9. And I’ll add one thing in a SLIGHT defense of Dusty – there is zero doubt that right now Diaz would help this team more than Maldy – but there are plenty of at bats that remind you he is a kid still – bases juiced, one out, all he has to do is not strikeout – and he swings at two pitches in a row that were not even close and he strikes out. Diaz also has an issue with shoulder level fastballs, he loves em, he just doesn’t hit em. He is spending entirely too much time out of the zone. Dusty sees this. Unfortunately, he isn’t paying attention to just how bad Maldonado has become, or worse, he doesn’t care to change it.

    Like

    Reply

  10. As a kid, Diaz has a 21% K-Rate. I find it overly humorous that you would point out the mistakes Diaz makes at the plate, while Maldonado, over a four year period, has a 31% K-rate. Do you realize how many times over the last 4 years Maldonado has spoiled Astros rallies? It is so bad that when he does manage not to strike out it seems like it is a momentous occasion.
    It is so exciting when Maldonado gets a hit that almost no one notices that Maldy has 7 HR and 17 RBI in 246 PAs, while rookie Diaz has 10 HR and 22 RBI in 198 ABs.
    I wont even repeat my rants about slash line comparisons or WAR comparisons or the incredible difference in their % of base stealers caught.
    Where does Baker find his trust in Maldy? Diaz has positive defensive numbers at Fangraphs, while Maldonado has negative numbers.
    No offense, but I don’t get it.

    Like

    Reply

    • Neither do I. We are in agreement. I am just saying, there are at bats that Diaz expands. That’s why he draws so few walks. Being better than Maldy doesn’t erase his holes.

      You sound like you think I’m a Maldy defender. If I was GM I would just release him, today. Baker can’t play who he don’t have. I honestly think half the franchises in the league would release him.

      No one has sung the praises of Diaz more than I. It’s on record. Read a blog from January, I most likely mentioned Diaz, because I did almost every day. Big fan. Still a big fan when he strikes out on two way out of the zone pitches with bases loaded and one out. He has a big future. I am just saying, if you give Dusty a small opening of an excuse, he seems likely to take it.

      Like

      Reply

  11. Maldy’s value to the team is as an “innings eater” for the Catcher position. He is keeping Yainer’s legs fresh for the stretch run.

    Like

    Reply

    • Steven, I’m sorry. I meant no ill intent by my comments. I think it safe to say that we are all a bit flabbergasted by the day to day decisions made by our manager, and just as remarkably, the unwillingness of upper management to step in and take some control of the situation.

      Scrolling down a bit, I see Dan’s link about Chas getting AL player of the week. He could not have been recognized without playing most every day. And that only happened because Jake has produced so little so often. Even in June he played more than Chas. And again, I think most all of us knew which guy should be in centerfield.

      Tonight is special. Yainer Diaz is catching Hunter Brown for the first time since May 8. I’m encouraged.

      Like

      Reply

  12. Looking back to his beginning in 2011, our man Altuve had 6 BB’s and 29 K’s with a .654 OPS in 221 at bats. He swung at everything. It took him 3 plus years to really thrive at the plate. And he got to play the field each day. I don’t have to rehash Diaz’ stats, but if any of you have not looked at his numbers when he works the whole game, rather than sitting on the bench all night only to get up and DH 3 or 4 times, please do.

    Of course Diaz expands. 24 year old guys should not be wasted in a DH role, especially when they play better defense that most guys at the catcher position in the game.

    I rarely toot my own horn, but going back to Altuve early on, nobody stuck up for him like I did, even when some were willing to trade him. And I don’t think anyone, as early and often has clamored for Yainer Diaz as I have.

    Like

    Reply

    • I don’t know Dave – I can’t find the spot but somewhere I used the phrase “Yainer Diaz isn’t just our best catching prospect, he is our best prospect period.” That was in a discussion about Lee and Diaz. I also said before we signed Abreu, not to sign Abreu as the rumor suggested was going to happen, but give 1B to Diaz because if you give him 450 PAs he will win a ROY. I’ve been on board since the first time I looked at his fangraphs page and felt like a sophomore at the high school dance that accidently bumped into the prom queen and actually made eye contact.

      And I’ve said multiple times, he needs to lay off bad pitches more. I used the Altuve comparison. I’ve read the archives. I wasn’t as kind to Altuve. I won’t make the same mistake twice – players with those hit tools are rare. Diaz is the closest I’ve ever seen to anyone that came close to duplicating what Altuve was in the minors. I also think he will be the closest thing we have to duplicating Jose in the majors. I would prefer he wasn’t doing it from the C position where he will sit once every 4 days and play at most 130-135 games in a season, but he is pretty darned good at it. Some of his metrics have fallen off – he no longer has the second best pop time, etc – but that will happen when you start catching just once a week.

      I would agree with just not everyone on this blog, but generally everyone on Tals Hill, Crawfish boxes, even the Chron(spit!). It’s time for the change. He should be the number 1 guy. I just feel like Dusty doesn’t see it that way. And it’s very possible Dusty is frustrated at the swinging out of the zone in a spot where all he needed was to make contact. I know I was. And I also think Dusty doesn’t think he can a WS with a rookie catcher (I think he is wrong, but I think he feels that way).

      And if I can make one more criticism before I lose my Yainer fan club card – watch his at bats. He has an issue with outside sliders where he tends to fall away from his swing at times. He isn’t moving his top half with the swing. Watch Pena. He will get beat on outside sliders all the time, but when he swings at them he will come down to it, upper half and all, and keep his momentum and power in the swing. The pitch that Pena lined into CF last year against Seattle before the Yordan dinger was an outside slider, out of the zone, that he was beat on. But Pena is so strong, and disciplined in that swing, that he took his body forward with the pitch and lined it into CF. Yainer will do that some, but alot of times he just ends up throwing his arms at it, and not moving his body. It almost looks like he is throwing the bat at it. It’s coachable, and it will take some time to iron out, but mostly, it’s going to take at bats. He isn’t going to fix these things without repetition.

      Like

      Reply

  15. It is such a pleasure to hear from Dan and Chip in the same post! It’s kind of like the old days, right? [Alas, where is Brian?]

    As far as our Astros go, this job of resident cynic is just way too hard – how does one give tongue-in-cheek cynicism when the team’s escalating on-field implosions drop the jaw? Right now, with all the injuries, the sudden inability of our pitchers to get anybody out, and our frequently less-than-inspiring defense, we do not match up well with any team except the hapless A’s. When we win games now it is not because we are the better team, but because the mistakes the other teams make are sometimes a little worse than the ones we make. Trades? The problem is not just adding another bat or innings eater anymore; the problem is that the nucleus of the team is aging really, really badly.

    Like

    Reply

    • Yeah – this has been fun running with Chip’s questions, Mr. Bill. We have another set of questions to go. Maybe Chip would like to reciprocate and answer some questions from me. I will explore that.
      I feel like the team is just holding on right now – though they do get another set of games with the A’s (good) followed by a series with the Rangers (could be good or bad). I’m hoping with Yordan starting today in Sugar Land that maybe they can bring him back for that series with the Rangers. Maybe we can have Altuve back then too.
      And if we can add Dylan Cease, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Nolan Ryan, John Smoltz and Mariano Rivera our pitching will be pretty good……

      Like

      Reply

  16. Tough game. Three in the first. Nothing the rest of the way. Colorado is not a very good team. You wanted to leave here winning both, hopefully we salvage a split.

    Like

    Reply

    • Thanks for the comment – interesting one – have heard some rumors about each – but would they try to get them both in a package? This is like this morning’s rumors that the Astros have interest in a package of Dylan Cease and Luis Robert from the White Sox. Big time plans or just someone stirring the pot?

      Like

      Reply

  19. I find it interesting that:
    -Luis Garcia blew out his UCL after MLB made him change his windup and he did not have a full spring training to work things out because of the WBC
    -Jose Altuve has missed half a season after missing most of spring training because of the WBC.
    -Valdez and Javier are looking exhausted after not having a normal ST because of the WBC.
    -Jose Urquidy has missed most of the entire season after missing a normal spring training while pitching in the WBC
    – Jordan Alvarez’s rehab has been delayed five days because he got sick being in Seattle for nothing but fun.
    – Hunter Brown looks exhausted after carrying a much bigger load this year. He didn’t even pitch for the Astros until Sept 5th of 2022 and he was used mostly in relief in September and in the playoffs.
    – Jeremy Pena has not lived up to his playoff promise after missing a normal spring training and playing in the WBC.
    – Neris and Montero have not been nearly as effective as last season after missing a normal spring training because of the WBC.
    – The Astros have had only 1 regular outfielder and 5 platoon outfielders on their team this season. Alvarez, Julks, Meyers, McCormick, Madris have not been regular starting outfielders this season. They rotate at the manager’s discretion.
    -The Astros are fighting for the last Wild Card spot in the AL.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

Leave a comment