Two for Tuesday: Beginning the Astros’ offseason


Today we will hit on two areas of interest for the off-season.

1) Free Agents

The first is a look at and a prioritization of the Astros’ upcoming free agents and what they might cost to keep. The list is shown in the order that Dan P thinks they should be kept. You can toss out your preferred priority in the comments…..

  • Charlie Morton – After incentives, Charlie made almost $9 Million in 2018. He is about to turn 35 years old and has indicated he still wants to play, but maybe not a long time. First, they will absolutely give him a qualifying offer (QO of $17.9 million). MLB Trade rumors thinks he will get more than Rich Hill (3 years $48 million) who was two years older. He may also want to go home closer to family in Delaware. This is probably the most important and hard to figure free agent in the stable.
  • Marwin Gonzalez – Spotrac estimates it will take $18 million/year for 4 years to sign MarGo….. really? If so, will the Astros give him a QO and let him walk? Or will they let him see the market and see if they can get him for a bit less – like $15 million/year for 3 or 4 years?
  • Martin Maldonado – Spotrac is estimating he will get $3.9 million for 1 year (which is what he made in 2018). The Astros need catching help, but do they let his playoff crash and burn over-ride an ok regular season assist to the team? Can’t see them keeping him for this much.
  • Dallas Keuchel – Spotrac says he will get $20.6 million/year for 5 years. If so, it is hard to see them doing anything but giving him the QO and letting him walk
  • Tony Sipp – 35-year-old Sipp was good in 2018 in fairly low leverage appearances. He made $6 million, like he did in 2016 and 2017 when he was bad. Unless he wants a big pay cut – hard to see him back here at anything over $2 or 3 million.
  • Brian McCann – The Astros paid him $11.5 million per year for the last two seasons (the Yanks were paying him $5.5 million per year not to play for them). There is a team option for $15 million. That won’t get picked up. Would they be interested in picking him up for a lot less, like $4 or $5 million. Maybe, but Brian may hang it up or try to head back to Atlanta to finish his career.
  • Will Harris – The Astros paid him $2.8 million in 2018, when his performance worsened for the second straight year. They have an option to keep him at $5.5 million. They won’t pick that up. Likely he is gone.
  • Evan Gattis – Spotrac thinks Evan will get $7.8 million/year for two years out on the market. Based on what happened with FAs who could hit for power, but could not field before the 2018 season, it would not be surprising if he is scrambling for a place next season and don’t bet on that place being Houston.

40 Man Roster adjustments

A friend of the blog, old pro, requested we use the following link to talk about the changes that need to happen to the 40 man roster leading into the rule 5 draft. Jayne Hansen over at whattheheckbobby does yeoman work in keeping folks informed on the Astros’ minor leaguers year long.

https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2018/09/2018-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html

There are two parts to this equation. We will ignore the folks under AA for this discussion. Yes, I know that we lost a player below AA last season, but that is highly unusual. The following folks are available to be taken in the Rule 5 draft for $50,000 if they are not on the 40 man roster at the time of the draft. Whoever takes them can only keep them if they stay on that team’s 25 man roster for the whole season.

AAA Position Players
OF Drew Ferguson
IF Jack Mayfield
IF Antonio Nunez
C Jamie Ritchie
C Garrett Stubbs
3B Nick Tanielu

AAA Pitchers
Rogelio Armenteros
RHP Akeem Bostick
RHP Brock Dykxhoorn
LHP Kent Emanuel
RHP Justin Ferrell
RHP Riley Ferrell
RHP Ralph Garza
RHP Brendan McCurry
RHP Cy Sneed
RHP Ryan Thompson (ended the season on the DL; TJ surgery)
RHP Trent Thornton

AA Position Players
None

AA Pitchers
LHP Carlos Hiraldo
RHP Erasmo Pinales
RHP Yoanys Quiala (on the restricted list)
LHP Alex Winkelman

The other component to this is knocking folks off the 40 man roster. The current 40 man roster is actually at 41 due to Jandel Gustave being on the 60 day DL.

http://m.astros.mlb.com/hou/roster/40-man/

Folks that could come off the 40 (41) man, may include the following – Gustave, Reymin Guduan, Will Harris, Dallas Keuchel. Brady Rodgers, Martin Maldonado, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann and Carlos Correa (just checking to see if you are paying attention). They need to reserve some of those spaces for any outside free agents they might want to sign. Let’s guess at three of those. Perhaps the team may trade from off the 40 man to bring in a player for a specific reason (Perhaps Derek Fisher, A.J. Reed, J.D. Davis or a Chris Devenski or Brad Peacock) might be included in a trade.

Let’s say there are five spots open on the 40 man, after all, is said and done. The top candidates for those spots would seem to include…..

  • OF Drew Ferguson, C Jamie Ritchie and C Garrett Stubbs
  • P Rogelio Armenteros, Brendan McCurry, Cy Sneed, Trent Thorton, Brock Dykxhoorn, Carlos Hiraldo, Alex Winkelman

Picking from those, the two catchers Ritchie and Stubbs would seem to be no-brainers. Ferguson because of the lack of OF depth would be another choice, but pitching is worth more so youngster (21 years old) Carlos Hiraldo and two of the AAA pitchers – let’s choose Armenteros and Sneed.

There could be more – there could be less, but it looks to me like the Astros are likely to get poached on the pitching side this time around.

So, your turn to chime in….what do you think about the Astros and their own free agents and what do you think about them protecting youngsters from the Rule 5 draft.

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65 comments on “Two for Tuesday: Beginning the Astros’ offseason

  1. First I know very little about the Astros, and much, much less about the Farm. But I must be the only person that thinks Maldonado was terrific until the melt down in the Boston Series.

    Let’s look at what is in the stats. McCann – 62 games w/ 19 stolen bases. Stassi – 83 w/ 32 SBs. Maldonado 40 w/3. The value of a catcher to me, is do the pitchers trust him and second does the other team run at will. Even with his glaring poor showing in the postseason, I think he adds value.

    Liked by 1 person

    • You have a valid point about Maldonado – it depends on how they view things and they tend to not overblow a small sample size. I will say the pitching staff probably was having problems trusting him with breaking balls in the dirt the way he was booting them around in the post season. But maybe that is because the pitching staff was using a bit of extra pine tar at the time (I was supposed to just think that, not say it).
      I’m 100% sure that McCann is gone – I’m more like 60-40 on Maldonado, the key being what they would have to pay to keep him in a catcher short market.

      Liked by 1 person

      • AC & Dan. I was getting ready to post and you took the words right “out of my mouth” or computer in this case. I just can’t see us picking up the option on McCann but you did throw out a lesser amount. The question I’m curious about is how good is Stubbs? Is he better than Stassi? Is he MLB ready? If we can’t get Realmundo for a decent deal then what’s our alternatives? Do we need a bat, a catcher, or both?
        As for pitching, I think it’s time we gave some of these young arms on the farm a shot at making the team. We are looking at an increase in payroll of $20MM for Marwin and Charlie. Yes that would probably be offset by the loss of Keuchel, Gattis, Sipp, and the trade of a couple of others. If we continue to keep the bull pen arms we have then these other guys are nothing more than trade bait and we’re defeating the purpose of trying to develop pitching prospects. I think we agree that Josh James and Framber Valdez will get a shot butthere ae some ready arms for bull pen duty too.

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    • My point about Maldonado is that he is a free agent. He is not on our roster. Now, we have to woo him. Do the Astros want to outbid 29 other teams for his services? We traded for him to help us in the playoffs and it was bad.
      I’m movin’ on.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Zanuda – I think it is so critical to keep this in mind. By the end of next season we could have a complete turnover in the starting rotation.
    McCullers may never be able to sustain a spot in the rotation.
    Morton might retire, but most likely decides to pitch longer but we may have to outbid big bucks to keep him
    Keuchel is gone in my mind
    Cole and Verlander are FAs at the end of 2019 and again we would have to put up big bucks to sign either of them.

    We will have to continue to find out what the youngsters can do, because it is not reasonable to outbid for all the FAs we are losing or to bring in other top pitchers to fill all the spots.
    I think they will go hard after Morton and will try and extend Cole. I think Keuchel will be gone this off-season and Verlander next

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  3. ☻ Charlie Morton will eventually move east, but the other day he specifically said he wants to come back to the Astros next year, and got emotional about it.

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    • “I’d love to keep playing,” Morton said after last night’s game. “I’d love to be an Astro. I’d love to be a part of this again. Ultimately, it’s not really up to me. It’s not solely up to me.”

      Liked by 1 person

      • Diane –
        It’s so interesting reading between the lines on this. When he says “it’s not really up to me. It’s not solely up to me” did he mean….
        – It’s up to the team and whether they want me back
        – It’s up to the team and whether they want to outbid others for me
        – It’s up to my wife and whether she can stand having me a long way from her and the kids
        – It’s up to my agent who handles the money end of this………

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  4. OK here’s my guesses on who they would protect from the minors. It’s my attempt to show how dumb I am when it comes to value of prospects.
    -Armenteros- The fact that he regressed in the area of BBs tells me he was adding a pitch or they changed his delivery to make it more reliable on defense and holding runners. Or both.
    -Stubbs- But I thought they would protect Heineman, so what do I know? Based on what I saw of him in spring training I think he will be a major league catcher.
    -Trent Thornton-He’s our #24 ranked prospect. If they don’t trade him I think they will protect him. Why invite anyone to take him in the rule 5 when you don’t have a clue about whether you need to replace 3 starting pitchers. His stats were the best in AAA outside of James and Rogelio.
    Ritchie- OK I’ll go along with him because they do need some catchers.
    Pinales-I’ve never heard of Carlos Hiraldo, whose numbers for his career are horrible. So I pick Erasmo Pinales. They thought enough of him to send him to the AFL, where he has a 0.00 ERA so far. He was the only dependable reliever in CC most of the year. This pick will probably be my worst one.
    Yoanys Quiala- I don’t know why. He has some good stuff, but he might have burnt his bridges.
    Drew Ferguson might be a victim of Myles Straw’s speed and some Jake Marisnick romance. Tanileu might not make it because of his glove. Do you want a utility infielder who may have a decent bat but a questionable glove. It’s a tough call for me. Plus, he’s never played any outfield, so he’s not diverse
    My bubble guy is Bostick. I keep hoping he could make it because of how we got him, who we got him from and how much time and effort we have put into his career. “How do the Astros view him” is the question in my mind.

    Liked by 2 people

    • The thing we don’t know op is as you say “How do the Astros view them”. We can say Bostick was bad at AAA. But did they tell him to go there and work on a third pitch like a changeup no matter how he gets hit around? Are there certain guys that they consider AAAA at best? Maybe they have decent results in the minors but don’t have the arm speed or the control it takes to make it in the bigs….
      So what you did in picking the folks is fine – you may well be closer to right than I will be.

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  5. “The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox will start one of the most highly anticipated World Series in recent years Tuesday night at historic Fenway Park in Boston.” (from MSN Sports online) Cheese whiz, I guess we were the only ones who “highly anticipated” last year’s WS. 🙂

    Liked by 4 people

    • Before the playoffs started a few media outlets went out of their way to say the Astros in the World Series again was a worst case scenario for MLB. I imagine an Astros – Brewers series might have caused Manfred to call together an emergency meeting where a combination of Ouija boards, some random guy with a camera from MMP, and the instant replay crew from NYC would find a loophole in the rules that allowed them to declare the WS match up would actually be either NYY-BOS (a first ever AL only WS?) or LAD-BOS.

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  6. It is interesting to look at the TV ratings for WS…
    The Astros – Dodgers series rating was down a bit from the Cubs-Indians the previous year (an anomaly because of the Cubs not having won in forever), but was higher than 9 of the previous 11 World Series and it was not all because LA was in there, it was because of the incredible baseball being played, especially Games 2 and 5. If Boston or LA sweeps the WS in lopsided games I wonder how this will look in hindsight.

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  7. I would go after the best catcher available, DK QA , MCann, Harris, Sipp ,Gattis walk, Margo QA if he wants to much bye bye; sign Salty 2 years 32 mill, Could we try and get Sonny Gray have Stromy work his magic. Valdez and James in the mix start or pen, maybe find a solid OF that can hit and run.

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  8. 1OP, I’m also waiting on the Zapruder footage of the Altuve home run. Still here in damp, chilly, rainy Houston. How do you guys live in this artic climate? I can’t even begin to figure out this 40 man business at this point. Hopefully Luhnow will start making some public decisions soon.

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    • -Alas, MLB has bought the rights to every photo taken in that stadium.
      -If you think Houston is Arctic, you are a spoiled brat. However, I watch every new episode of Caribbean Life, so I am very fond of that amazing blue water you are surrounded by. OK, I’m a little jealous.
      -If you think Luhnow was quiet after winning a WS, the silence after losing the ALCS is deafening.
      -When Jose Altuve walked back to the on deck circle to talk to Correa before his last at-bat of the series, I think he told Correa he was done for the year.
      He swung at three straight pitches, it didn’t seem to matter where they were located, and he damn near fell down on the second swing. He had to be in agony.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. Guilty as charged. But I have gone a month without power a couple of times when the weather did not cooperate. I guess it’s a give and take thing. But yes, I’ll take the take part.

    I was in section 434 last Thursday night. I was talking to guys sitting right on railing in what I guess is a handicapped area during the regular season. They were also at the game on Wednesday sitting in the same exact place. The play was right below them, with a perfect angle of the top of the fence. They said Betts arm was at least two feet into the crowd. I still hope to see that shot at some point in time.

    Altuve s a warrior.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Well daveb – when they release the Warren Report on the home run that wasn’t – I expect you to do like Oliver Stone and do a re-make of JFK called RBI.
      At the end – Kevin Costner will be in the courtroom talking about Betts’ glove going “back and to the left, back and to the left, back and to the left.”

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  10. Oh – and as long as we are talking about starting pitching….. Collin McHugh becomes a Free Agent after the 2019 season and Brad Peacock after the 2020 season…..

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  11. who are people rooting for? i usually pick up who i want to win after an inning or two when its two teams i have no commitment/feeling for. in this case i think i will root for boston because machado is such an ass.

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    • ray j – I am in my “don’t give a sh—–aving cream” mode.
      – I hope they have blizzard conditions in Boston and have to play wearing huge Michelin man coats over the top of their uniforms.
      – I hope an earthquake hits LA and swallows up Chavez Ravine (on an off-day – know fans were injured in the making of this fantasy) and Bud Selig comes out of retirement and makes them play the makeup games in Milwaukee
      – I hope that these games are either boring blowouts (18-1) or boring extra inning games “We are headed into the 16th inning and the Red Sox still have only two hits and have not had a base runner since the 3rd inning”
      – I hope that it is over in 4 games and they have the worst TV ratings in the last decade
      – I hope that everyone longs for those 2017 Astros who made the World Series one of the greatest in history

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  12. I think the highest probability to return is Marwin. Morton and Keuchel returning probably has a lot to do with how much Luhnow wants to gamble on the health of LMJ and Frances Martes (2020 target). Maldanado only returns if he’ll take a pay cut AND Luhnow can find a new starting catcher beforehand. Gattis has a chance given how much Luhnow loves him…but it’s not a strong one.

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    • devin i’d like to see marwin stay around, but unless he really likes it here and will give a discount, i think he will be too expensive for us.

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    • …but we live in a Moneyball world and Gattis did have 26 HR and 78 RBI in the regular season with a bad OBP. He’s not getting a good contract elsewhere. Teams have jumped on the analytics train. I believe Luhnow can get him for below market value. In house options make it appear Tyler White could outperform Gattis. We’ve seen some guys like Fisher and Reed wilt when given a spot in the lineup.

      Liked by 1 person

  13. I keep hearing that the World Series (yawn) is on tonight. I have decided to watch a marathon of 1960’s soap opera’s (As the World Turns, The Guiding Light, Search for Tomorrow, The Secret Storm, and The Edge of Night). I believe that As the World Turns was my mother’s favorite.
    In other sport news, the world ping pong championship was won by some guy named Gump sporting his flex-o-lite ping pong paddle.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Let’s see – what would I rather do than watch this WS?
      – Watch a Halloween horror movie with my family
      – Watch my team in the WS – last year’s highlight DVDs
      – Prep for my next colonoscopy
      – Stand outside in the cold and wet waiting for a bus
      – Listen to someone talking exactly like Fran Drescher the Nanny
      – Relive the time we spent 15 hours in the Newark airport due to a snow storm
      – Help my wife organize recipe cards

      Liked by 2 people

      • Do what I did. Watch Mike and Frank pick some rusty gold and then watch Leroy Jethro Gibbs and his crew figure out who killed our heroes. When I wake up in the morning I’ll find out who won game 1.

        Liked by 2 people

      • Sounds as good as anything else op – I was a little under the weather – so watched Dracula (1979) with Frank Langella, Laurence Olivier, Kate Nelligan and Donald Pleasance with the family and then went to bed early

        Liked by 1 person

  14. I think they will work a 3-4 yr deal with Marwin. Did you know Marwin and Altuve have been best friends since they were 15yrs old?!! Same for Charlie Morton…..they will offer him another 2yr deal and that will do it for Charlie.
    I think he wants to be a part of this team so much, he may take a little less money to stay here. He has a home here, kinda like Reddick does. But Luhnow has some house cleaning to do……there is a pretty big log jam in AA and AAA teams. Gotta move up some folks! Becky⚾

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    • Pluses and minuses….

      Plus
      – Gray was a very good pitcher in 2015 and good in 2016 and 2017
      – Since he is an FA after 2019 – he should not cost that much
      – Since he was a bad pitcher in 2018 (4.90 ERA / 1.496 WHIP) he should not cost that much
      – He’s only 29 (in a few days)
      – He made $6.5 Million in 2018 and based on some good and bad recent performance – you would think he’s going to make in the $8 to 9 million range in 2019
      – Strom has made some guys (McHugh, Morton, Cole) look pretty brilliant

      Minuses
      – You only get him for one season when covering 2020 and beyond should be the main focus
      – Maybe 2018 is his new norm
      – Maybe he can’t stand taking the big stage
      – Yanks may want to keep him to show they did not waste assets in picking him up

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  15. Beginning the Astros offseason:
    -The Astros are watching Whitley and Bukauskas very closely in Arizona. I would bet that they have somebody important at each of their starts. Whitley lost a game the other day when he gave up 3 hits and 2 runs in the first inning of a 2-1 loss. He was very good after the first inning.
    -If LMJ needs surgery on his elbow, it doesn’t hurt to check out all options because there is 16 months between now and ST 2020. What it does, though, is make the Astros bargaining position a little weaker with outside assets, because their needs in 2019 would be more critical.
    -Looking at Correa’s month to month stats, he had one good month at the plate. They missed Correa the entire season. I hope he gets fixed because they need him to be the guy they have counted on him being since they drafted him 1.1.
    -I wonder what Framber Valdez will be working on this winter.
    -Josh James threw all of his fastballs in his first inning of work over 99.8 mph, with most of them 101-102. By the time he finished his outing his fastball was 95-96 and Bradley’s HR was off a changeup. He was completely gassed in his fourth inning because he was putting everything he had in the first two innings of work. He should have been pulled before he faced Bradley.
    -I like Nelson Cruz as a DH for Houston because he would bring Beltran-like experience and knowledge, plus a real fine bat. Look at his 2018 year which was very good and then notice that he was unlucky, as he had the lowest BABIP of his career. 2.5 WAR from the DH spot is spectacular, and that included facing the best pitching staff in baseball 19 times.

    Liked by 3 people

    • – Betting Whitley and/or Bukauskas are high on the list for a) First man up and b) Taking the place of Verlander / Cole for 2020
      – Correa fell off the table and you have to think that his back was bothering him before and after his DL stint
      – I was surprised when they threw James out there for another inning – thought he had done what they needed from him
      – I would like Cruz here even it is just to not have to face him. With our luck he would do a Beltran and suddenly become old on us.

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      • Cruz career slash line at MMP: .258/.319/.454 for an OPS+ of 81.
        Gattis career slash line at MMP:.246/.297/.476 for an OPS+ of 99.
        Between age/risk of decline and a history of not playing that well in MMP I think Cruz is a risky investment, unless he wants to play here for cheap. I don’t know enough about him to say whether he might bring a “Beltran effect” with him, but I tend to doubt it.

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      • But yes – if he is that bad over his career, which includes the Astros’ stinky years you have to wonder if the Crawford Boxes got him psyched out

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      • Well, what about Beltran’s career numbers at MMP They were great and that didn’t seem to work out for him in 2017, but we still won a WS.
        Rather than point out Cruz’s numbers at MMP, how about his career 129 wRC+ in every park, including a 134 wRC+ in 2018. He was definitely not a train wreck.
        With all the talk I hear about how Beltran helped in ways more than his playing in 2017, I think Cruz could help us in all kinds of ways, too.
        Cruz has no ring and has never been to the playoffs in Seattle. I’m sure he’s real eager to try and find one last team to give him a shot at winning a championship.

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    • I felt like Hinch lost two games in the series with Boston because he didn’t use Pressly at the right time. The flip side is that last year the Dodgers lost to the Astros because they overworked their key bullpen guys and fastballs straightened out once they got too tired. As for James, it will be interesting to see him in ST 2019. I assume they will want him starting games, but it’s possible they see him as an 8th/9th inning guy who can shut the door with velocity. With LMJ in doubt and DK wanting to get rich I’d think a spot is open if he wants to take it.

      Liked by 2 people

      • I like James as a potential starter, but even better as a “lights out” closer. If he could develop a “killer slider” to go with his Fastball and change up, Lookout!
        BTW I think I previously said that when James came on for that 3rd inning all he was throwing was change ups and ol’ what’s his face was just sitting on it. (unless they were stealing signs?)

        Liked by 1 person

      • As a left handed hitter, a lot of times a change up that stays up in the zone and comes inner half just looks like a meatball. There’s no deception there…so no sign stealing necessary. Get it down in the zone and it’s a different story.

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    • Given a choice between Cruz and White, I choose White for one season. Cruz had over twice as many plates appearances. So if you multiple 2.4 times the stats of White, you get all over Cruz. White is under control until 2023.

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  16. Could Eovldi be a potential FA target for the Astros? He would certainly check some boxes: cheaper than DK or Corbin and a flame thrower with nasty secondary stuff. He is basically Cole without the Strom effect; and he is a Houston area guy. He’s fresh off of TJ but is consistently hitting 101 in the playoffs. I’m not sure what it would take to sign him but I’m pretty certain he can be had for much less than 100. Would something like 4/65 make sense?

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  17. My ( I don’t really like baseball) husband had the game on tonight. After listening to Joe Buck slobber all over himself about Cora and the Red Sox, I had to go to another room. Last year I listened to my radio guys with my headset, so I got to tune him out. I really hope he retires before I die, because I can NOT stand listening to him fawn all over himself about the team HE wants to win.
    Good thing my husband hid my brick, or we would be buying a new television.
    Eovaldi? Hmmmm, I’d rather have Sonny Gray. Strom could do wonders with him….besides Eovaldi has already had Tommy John surgery.
    Dan P…..are you really serious talking about Nelson Cruz??

    Liked by 1 person

    • I was just responding to old pro on Cruz – said I would not mind having him and I wouldn’t. I think they are missing a grizzled veteran who can still hit. My preference would be to give Tyler White a whole season at DH, but if they brought in Cruz I would be OK with it.

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  18. In case you missed Luhnow’s press conference, here are some jewels that we learned. 1. Some or all of the coaching staff may or may not return. 2. Some players may or may not need additional medical treatment. 3. The Astros have several free agents this year that may or may not return.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. Think I read where all Astros staff invited back for 2019. If memory serves me correctly this tms offense was already in a funk before the spate of inj. I also expressed if offense derails this tm 2019, including postseason, an opportunity would be lost. As it stands those leaving & what is left gets a reset. Hope this does not prove to be a critical err by this FO.

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  20. Hoping White can grab the DH spot by the throat and run with it 2019, him & Kemp. Just read on Cruz and no one has hit more HRs the past few seasons in MBL than him. Also said his departure would leave a big hole in Seattle’s offense. I’m cool with that if they pursue him. Also confirmed what stated above, all coaches invited back in 2019. JL says tm priority is SP/C. That should mean Realmuto or Ramos and I’d give Hamels a 1 yr shot (Cubs will pick up that $20 mil option no doubt) while youngsters prepare. Don’t have a clue about OF help or what SP they interested in , maybe a reclamation project

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