10 throw-down, Astros-related questions

This is what we technically call a quickie throwdown post in the unpaid business of fan blogging…

  1. Is starting pitching the biggest question mark for the Astros’ going forward? You have 35 y.o. Justin Verlander, who threw 242.2 IP in 2018 between playoffs and regular season and has not missed a start this year, who is at 169.2 IP. Charlie Morton (34 y.o.) threw a career-high 167 total IP last season and is at 142.1 IP. Dallas Keuchel (30 years old). Gerrit Cole though only at 27 years old is already at 164.2 IP and Lance McCullers is in the garage with an arm strain. Can this group hold it together or do they need rest that does not seem to be coming with this tight race?
  2. Where does Framber Valdez fall in your universe of unusual Astros’ names over the years? Somewhere between Mark Lemongello and Bob Aspromonte?
  3. Can the Astros overcome the double play flu? They are leading the league in grounding into DPs and seem to be doing nothing to avoid these rally killers.
  4. What is more important to the Astros….having a healthy Jose Altuve or a healthy Carlos Correa or a healthy George Springer?
  5. Who are you more afraid of: The Seattle Mariners or the Oakland A’s?
  6. Who is the most important off-season free agent for the Astros to re-sign? Dallas Keuchel? Charlie Morton? Marwin Gonzalez? Brian McCann? Someone else?
  7. Through Tuesday Alex Bregman is leading the team in runs scored (81) and RBIs (77) and tied for the lead in HRs (24). Will he end up leading the team in any of those categories?
  8. Would you rather the Astros be playing well at the end of the season but earn a Wild Card, or back into the playoffs as the AL West division winner?
  9. The Astros have gone to the playoffs in back to back years four times in their past. The last time was when they went to the WS in 2005. Does 2017 give them an edge headed into 2018 playoffs should they make it?
  10. Where do you see this team on November 1?
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141 responses to “10 throw-down, Astros-related questions”

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  1. 1. The biggest question mark I have about the Astros is their ability to win series after series against teams remaining on their schedule. This business of no offense when they get good pitching and not enough pitching when they do score runs has to stop right now.
    2. Framber is easy to say and very unique. I believe people will come to use the name Framber the same way they use the name Marwin. When you use that first name everyone knows who you are talking about.
    3. The Astros can avoid a lot of the double plays if they hit first pitch fastballs right down the middle. If they keep laying back, trying to run up pitch counts, they are going to continue to have to swing at a pitcher’s pitch, rather than their pitch. Jose can eliminate his DPs if he stops swinging at pitches out of the zone. They can eliminate Gattis’s DPs by letting White DH. Springer and Correa can eliminate DPs by hitting inside pitches over the LF fence and outside pitches over the RCF fence.
    In the playoffs last year, the Astros got pitchers out of the game by hitting them, not by running up their pitch count!
    Great post! Will continue to answer your questions and post some of my own.

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  2. -At the beginning of the off season following the WS, I saw Frances Martes, David Paulino, Michael Feliz, Rogelio Armenteros and Joe Musgrove as the possible five starting pitchers in Fresno to begin the 2018 season. I had JV, Dallas, LMJ, Charlie F. Morton and Collin McHugh as the Astros rotation.
    When you look at those two rotations, they did not seem out of line at all, but how much more wrong could I have been about Fresno?
    -Not a peep from anyone in baseball about a 19 year old RH starting pitcher in the minors who throws 50 innings and allows 1 earned run and 16 hits, 66 Ks and 11 walks. There’s not even a picture of him and I can’t find his stats on Baseball Reference. Ernesto Jaquez is just a legend, a myth. Batters only swing and myth when he pitches.
    -When you look at the Astros top 15 prospects, the only one of them who has not had a good season is Forrest Whitley, and his disappointments have not been from his stats, which are pretty good. IF you look at all 15 of those guys, there isn’t one of them who you could say has had a down year on the field. In fact, they have been really, really good. That may be why the Astros top 5 minor league teams have either made the playoffs already or are right on the cusp of making it.

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  3. This was my BRILLIANT post at the end of the last post. I should have waited an hour. Would have saved me a lot of time.

    As to bullpen usage, Alvarez (LAA) has been in 64 games. Diaz (SEA) 62, Clippard (TOR)61, Pressly (Twins & Astros) 61, and Romo (TBR) 61 & Bedrosian (LAA) 60. 27 pitchers have been in 51 to 59 games. For the Astros Rondon, Harris, and Peacock have pitched in 50. The next highest Astro is 43. So comparatively speaking, the Astros should be as rested as anyone.

    And as to starters, Kluber leads with (174 innings), JV (169), Cole (164), DK (160) & Morton (147). That is 4 of top 14 innings eaters in the AL.

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  4. 1. I think if they clinch, they can rest one start or 10 days. 2. Framber looked solid but not spectacular to me. Being a lefty, his curve starts at the LH hitters head and then drops over for a strike. Unlike Sipp whos curve starts over the plate and then bangs against the outfield wall. 3. DPs will go away with solid contact on first strike down the middle. They need to quit taking that pitch. Second, going the opposite way will solve the second half of the problem. 4. All three. 5. A’s right now. 6. If you throw out “Price” – DK and Morton are equal. 7. Yes, at least two of them. 8. Playing well. 9. No edge. 10. On Local Fox if still playing. Seriously, you have to believe the best team currently is Boston, but the best team is not guaranteed anything but an appearance.

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  6. My answers:

    1. They need the rest.
    2. Framber is unusual, Valdez not so much.
    3.I see the double play flu as a note that players ARE getting on base instead f heading back to the dugout. I am okay with it.
    4.Healthy Jose Altuve.
    5. Oakland.
    6. Marwin Gonzalez because of his versatility, Charlie F. Morton because of his new found pitching life, but I would like to see Brian McCann signed as a coach because of his calming attitude on the team. Say goodbye to Dallas Kuechel.
    7. Alex will lead the team in all three because anyone who could challenge him have been hurt this year.
    8. AL West WINNER!!
    9. Yes.
    10. I am looking for them to have had overpowering pitching and hitting throughout the playoffs and are World Series Champions!

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  7. Further Answers
    4. I’m going with healthy Altuve because he is the only one of the three capable of hitting .350.
    5. More Afraid of the M’s or the A’s? I am more afraid of the August Astros.
    6. Most important free agent? Patrick Corbin. Of our guys? Marwin.
    7. I believe Bregman has a great chance to lead the Astros in all three categories because he is coming out of a slump as we speak.
    8. I want them to win the AL West.
    9. I don’t think 2017 gives them near as much of an advantage as a torrid September, 2018 would.
    10. My heart tells me they are in the WS on November 1. My head tells me they are watching the Red Sox. They have not been able to turn it on all year, despite having the best pitching in baseball and few injuries in the first half of the season. How do they suddenly become in the next two months what they haven’t been able to be yet in 2018?

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    • Last year the Indians dominated us and had the best record in the AL and still haven’t won the title in 70 or so years.
      Regular season gets you in – staring at the dugout camera after a HR wins it all.

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      • The playoffs are a whole “nother” animal. Pitching and defense mean everything. Great pitching will silence good bats. Funny you mention the Indians. IMO their pitching makes them the Astros biggest threat to repeating.

        I’m most worried about our ability to make good decisions and play mistake free baseball.

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  8. I have a question. I see DK as an integral part of this team. He is not overpowering, but this year will get close to 180 or more innings. Since ST, most seem to see him gone next year (On other blogs, some WANT him gone). What am I overlooking? He has to be given a QO if for no reason that to get a draft pick. And he may accept it.

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    • I think if the Astros give a QO to Keuchel and he accepts it, they would be happy with that. They would get another year of him in his prime without having long term commitment.
      On the other hand, Dallas wants to use that prime year to leverage a longer term deal for himself and get 3-4 years of commitment out of somebody. So he probably won’t accept a QO for that reason. He has only what, eight days to make up his mind on a QO and then he becomes a FA and the QO expires.

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    • I’m of a slightly different opinion on Keuchel than most. First, it is without question that they will offer QO and he will reject and go the route of FA. If he signs with another team we will get a nice sandwich pick that should net a quality prospect.

      I believe the team will then pursue him via FA. I am all aboard with a contract in the 4-5 year range at 70-90M. In fact, I think that would be a pretty good deal for both sides and I would have no problem with them even going a little higher on average annual.

      We are all so conditioned to measure Keuchel against his 2015 season that we forget just how good he has actually been. The 2015 version is a 10/300 FA. The current version is still one of the top pitchers in the league and has a lot of value. DK will be a dominant pitcher is this league for at least the next 5 years.

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  9. Some thoughts on the Astros
    -I would not be surprised if the Astros call up Josh James in September. He will have to be added to the 40-man or be rule 5 eligible in December anyway. Fresno has at least 7 starting pitchers on their roster currently.
    -I think they will call up Cionel also.
    -Kyle Tucker will do some serious thinking and tinkering this off season. He has seen the huge difference between AAA and the majors.
    -I would not be surprised if Altuve is doing a good job of dealing with some pain.
    Tyler White may have written his name into the Astros future plans.

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    • Some thoughts on rotation:
      DK and CFM are both FA at end of year. Both will receive a QO. CFM may accept but DK will surely reject.
      Cole and JV are FA after next season. Both will receive QO and both will opt for FA.
      You stand to lose 1/5 – 2/5 of the 2018 rotation in 2019 and 4/5 in 2020.
      The Astros have some great young arms in the minors but I don’t see any of them reaching the level of any of the 2018 starters within a 2 year window. They are going to need seasoning and have their IPs stretched over at least a 2 year window.
      My gut feel is JV will be off to the big city with his model wife, so you better get pretty aggressive and smart in dealing with CFM/DK/ Cole. Based on the SP FA talent coming up over the next two seasons I don’t think your going to get much via that route. We need to sign at least two of the four or one of two things will happen:
      1. We will gut the farm to trade for pitching
      2. The window of contention closes
      You just don’t go deep in the playoffs without quality pitching. The playoffs value arms and gloves over bats.

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  12. The Nerd Cave guys must be flummoxed by the 33 and 29 home record. All of their forecasts had to show an outcome that had our club comfortably leading the division today. That sure impacts all the advance plans to rest arms. Last year was too easy. This year rest plans will have to be ad libbed on a daily basis. It will be far more interesting.

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    • I see that Rusty Staub was at Durham for a year. They called that B ball. Don Wilson was at Cocoa in A ball. Dierker played in Cocoa but by September he was called up. J R Richard was in the minors 2 years at Covington and Cocoa. Those are the only ones that I looked at – from memory – which is always faulty.

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    • Old pro – I think you were only asking about Luhnow draftees – I’m pretty sure Bregman made it to High A Lancaster the year he was drafted

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  15. Late to the party but here’s my take.
    1. Yes they need to be rested. Whether a tandum or a missed start but rest is needed.
    2. Not to be a wise@#! but who cares as long as he get’s the job done. i like what I saw.
    3. They better or winning will become somewhat difficult as if it has been already.
    4. Jose by a landslide.
    5. The A’s, which I’ve been saying all along (OK, I’m a little cocky on that one) but the M’s are no slouches.
    6. Tough one here but considering everything else it’s either CM or DK. I’d have to lean towards DK right now.
    7. In short, Yes. Could be one or all.
    8. Win Al West by any means. It means an extra game against either the A’s, Yankee’s, or M’s, and then if we win that one it’s the RedSox. Rather play the Indians and the the winner of the other games. Probably be the RedSox but you never know.
    9. Not really and their opponents probably don’t care either. After all, that was last year and it’s a new season.
    10. Hopefully having another big WS victory parade in downtown.

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  16. Friday Bonus Question: Who can identify, without looking it up, the pop song with a little voice that said,
    “And now for the ball scores: 4 to 3, 6 to 2, and 8 to 1” ?
    (Hint: well over half-century ago)

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  17. The team does not want this announced but I am keeping Springer’s thumb in my freezer next to my DiGiornio’s pizza until they are ready to re-attach it….

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  18. As to Altuve and 200 hits, he is penalized because some of the remaining schedule will be home games. And with that in mind, maybe we should pull for the A’s and hope the Astros get in as a Wild Card and play all away games.

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  20. Springer’s thumb is “not stable”??? I’m a gambler….so I bet you a dollar he will having surgery next week. If that’s what it is……EVERY SINGLE potion player should be wearing an oven mitt, when they get on base. Springer will make it 3 guys who have inured their thumb. I’m not a happy girl if that’s what it is.

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      • Happy birthday, Dan.”Flying Saucer” reached #3 on the charts, as they say, and is generally thought to be the first to use direct lifts from pop songs of the day. I can still hear in my head: “4 to 3, 6 to 2, and 8 [pause] to 1.” On the other hand, I am not overly smart. I just hears what I hear. Consider this: Might there be less stress on all of us if competing teams had no names?

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      • im surprised that i had never heard of ‘the flying saucer’, especially since i have been interested in ufo’s since an early age. would have been right up my alley. but i was only 3 in 1956. thanks for the riddle diane. now i have to go finish my aluminum foil hat..

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      • rrj, I was 12, had no interest at the time. However, certain questions have been raised. The problem is how you read “reality” – personally, I think there is something going on, but not necessarily UFOs as we define UFOs. Anyway, my interest at age 12 was only the lifts from Fats, Presley, Platters and so on. And , of course the “ball scores.”

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      • This is a bit flakier than what I intended. Not big on “depends on what you mean by” — but nobody’s gonna read back this far, so just a footnote.

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      • I was sleeping. What did nephew do wrong bedsides not being on the fleet footed side of the family? (I think I can still outrun him).

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      • Tyler doubled to drive in a run in the top of the ninth. Then while he was at second, Marwin (I think) hit a shot to right center that Trout ran down. White was past 3rd when he caught the ball. Had he held up, he would have scored easily if Trout failed to catch it. At that time, we didn’t need any extra runs. So it mainly was a jab at you and not Tyler.

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  33. Happy Birthday Dan!! Our guys are gonna give you a wonderful birthday present tonight!!
    Ladies and Gentleman it looks like we found ourselves a bonified DH!! Tyler White can just rake! We stay 1 1/2 games up on those pesky A’s!!

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    • Which brings up the question of what to do with Gattis? White is so much more versatile and a WHOLE LOT CHEAPER! Good thing we’re close to expanding the roster because there could be some real tough decisions when McCann and Marisnick come back. This issue should be best be settled in the off season but there will be some quandaries when the playoff roster is set.

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      • Agree with you on “Great White”. Gattis is making 6.7MM this year and I’m sure he’ll be looking at a longer term deal on a 1 year for at least 8MM. I think everybody likes what he’s done for the team but unfortunately baseball is a business and White is cheaper, a better hitter, and more versatile so there you have it. He could be our future 1st baseman also.

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  35. The play that Altuve made to get a double play was brilliant. Now had it backfired, he would be an idiot.

    Even though it was one sided, I kept thinking the Astros were 1 hit from making it a blowout.

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  38. taking a look at the upcoming schedule: the homestand starting on 8/27 begins with three games with the A’s – the last three games of the year with the A’s. those are three big time important games. thats followed by three with the angels and three with the twins. then its on the road to boston for 3 and detroit for 3. back home the stand begins with 3 with arizona and then the last 3 of the year with the mariners, possibly big time important games. then 3 with the angels. i think the astros will have taken care of business by this point. the regular schedule ends on the road with 3 at blue jays and 4 at orioles.

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  39. Daveb
    On your nephew question – along with scoring on Marwin’s slam – he knocked in two with a double in the ninth and then apparently got doubled off second on a line drive to Trout – I was sleeping by this time and did not see it.

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    • Explained above, but Trout ran 100 yards to run it down in deep right center. Tyler had rounded 3rd and was headed home. But when you drive in the 9th run of the game in the top of the 9th, you get a pass.

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      • If that ball was in the gap, nephew should have only gone as far as he could go and still get back to second even in the unlikely event of a catch. Sounds like he might not have given Trout enough respect. I’ll discuss with nephew in November over a Budweiser, maybe a Diet Bud for him.

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  41. Thoughts on Marwin Gonzalez 2018:

    – Played every position except P and C
    – 2nd in games played
    – 5th in AB
    – 5th in hits
    – 5th in doubles
    – 1st in triples
    – 5th in HR
    – 7th in runs
    – 6th in RBI
    – 3rd in BB

    Last 30 games – .305/.387/.562 .949 OPS
    Last 15 games – .322/.345/.595 .952 OPS
    Last 7 games – .321/.345/.714 1.059 OPS

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    • Astros traded Marco Duarte to Red Sox for Margo in 2011 after they had snatched in the Rule V from Chicago. Ole Marco’s now 32 and still toiling away in the Mexican leagues so I guess we didn’t miss him.

      It appears we picked up Duarte as an IFA and he never donned a uni for us. Does anyone remember him?

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  44. Astros have to decide by Monday if they are gonna have to put Springer on the DL. Jake had a good game yesterday……I assume he will be joining the guys in Houston Monday.

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  46. Vewill
    My memories of Marco Duarte
    – A singing waiter at an Italian restaurant
    – Former Formula 1 champion
    – Sang duets with Linda Ronstadt
    – Directed “Once Upon a Time in Mexico”

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  47. Twitter post by Tyler White:

    On my patch for #PlayersWeeekend I wrote Pawpaw Don. Growing up he spent countless hours throwing me BP and hitting me balls. While also teaching me that if you put in hard work you will succeed and achieve your dreams. I wouldn’t be where I am today without him. Thank you Pawpaw

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  48. Altuve gets drilled with a 98 mph fast ball, around the elbow. Think Verlander could plunk one of their guys???* PLEASE *.

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