This is the third excursion into the fantasy world of how the Astros team might morph in the next three seasons. In our first two efforts, we saw the Astros make quite a few changes for both 2019 and 2020.
Now the psychic orb gets even blurrier looking at possibilities for the roster in 2021. Talk about your Butterfly Effect! Many of these guesstimates can be un-done by almost anything, including action or inaction at this year’s trade deadline.
Free Agents
The following players could become free agents after the 2020 season:
- George Springer
- Charlie Morton (based on the assumption they signed him to a two-year FA contract after 2018)
- Josh Reddick (if they don’t unload him after 2019 as we had assumed).
- Brad Peacock
Arbitration
The following players will face arbitration if they cannot come to some other agreement with the team after the 2020 season:
- Carlos Correa. His last Arb season
- Yuli Gurriel. After he plays out his original five-year contract, he becomes Arb eligible for two seasons (don’t ask me why)
- Alex Bregman. His second of three Arb seasons
- Max Stassi.
- Chris Devenski.
| POSITION | 2020 | 2020 Salary | 2021 | 2021 Salary |
| 1B | YORDAN ALVAREZ | $600 K | ALVAREZ | $700 K |
| 2B | ALTUVE | $29 MM | ALTUVE | $29 MM |
| SS | CORREA(ARB) | $13 MM | CORREA(ARB) | $18 MM |
| 3B | BREGMAN (ARB) | $6 MM | BREGMAN (ARB) | $10 MM |
| C | STASSI (ARB) | $2.5 MM | STUBBS | $1 MM |
| DH | GURRIEL | $8.4 MM | GURRIEL (ARB) | $10 MM |
| OF | TUCKER | $600 K | TUCKER | $2 MM |
| OF | SPRINGER (ARB) | $16 MM | SPRINGER (FA) | $22 MM |
| OF | REDDICK MYLES STRAW | $13 MM $600 K | MYLES STRAW | $1MM |
| SWISS ARMY KNIFE | GONZALEZ | $8 MM | GONZALEZ | $8 MM |
| BENCH | TONY KEMP | $600 K | KEMP | $1 MM |
| BACKUP CATCHER | STUBBS | $600 K | STASSI (ARB) | $2 MM |
| SP | PEACOCK (ARB) | $7 MM | FRANCIS MARTES | $700 K |
| SP | COLE (FA) | $20 MM | COLE (FA) | $20 MM |
| SP | MCCULLERS (ARB) | $9 MM | MCCULLERS (ARB) | $12 MM |
| SP | MORTON (FA) | $16 MM | TRADE FOR VETERAN | $10 MM |
| SP | FORREST WHITLEY |
$600 K |
WHITLEY | $700 K |
| RP | JOSH JAMES | $600 K | JAMES | $700 K |
| RP | DEVENSKI (ARB) |
$5 MM |
DEVENSKI (ARB) |
$7 MM |
| RP | GILES (ARB) DEAN DEETZ | $600 K | DEETZ | $700 K |
| RP | BROCK DYKXHOORN | $600 K | DYXXHORN | $700 K |
| RP | FA PICKUP |
$8 MM |
FA PICKUP | $8 MM |
| RP | ROGELIO ARMENTEROS |
$600 K |
ARMENTEROS |
$700 K |
| RP | CIONEL PEREZ |
$600 K |
PEREZ |
$700 K |
| RP | 2018 TRADE DEADLINE PICKUP |
$6 MM |
2018 TRADE DEADLINE PICKUP |
$6 MM |
| MISC. | PART OF REDDICK, ETC |
$6 MM |
MISC. | $3 MM |
| TOTAL | 2020 Total | $165.9 MM | 2021 Total | 176.3 MM |
Discussion
If the guess at the 2020 opening day roster was a wing and a prayer, the proposed 2021 roster is a shot in the dark. It is obvious there will be major changes, but the actions they take will be a true reveal of what type of organization this is. How much are they tied to the folks who got them to the mountaintop? Do they tear back down to start over, spend themselves into a corner, or try to hang on while fighting the economics of the situation with the promotion of young (cheap) talent?
Gone
- Brad Peacock. Maybe they will avoid this situation by working out an extension before putting him in the rotation in 2020. If not, he may want that one big payday.
- Josh Reddick. If they don’t let him go in 2020 they will surely send him down the line after his $13 MM a year contract runs out.
- Charlie Morton. If he is thinking seriously of retiring now, he will likely head out to pasture after his imaginary two-year/$32 MM contract runs out in 2020.
Looking to Keep
- George Springer. The guy is the heart of the team and even in a down year, he still can give them a lot more than most teams ever get from their leadoff hitter. And there is no obvious replacement for him in the minors behind Kyle Tucker.
More Discussion
- The biggest challenge in 2021 will be how to complete the rotation, especially if Peacock and Morton are both gone. There is a fair chance that the Astros may go out and do another Gerrit Cole trade in that off-season to fill one of those spots or to pick up another Morton-type.
- Or…. perhaps it is time to see what some younger folks can do in that rotation. Francis Martes will be 25 y.o. headed into that season and hopefully ready to step into a bigger role.
- Depending on what their budgetary concerns are, the Astros might spend a bit more in the bullpen – especially if the 2020 season does not go so well.
So…
What do you think about this shot at the Astros future?
Can this team still be a contender with so many changes between now and 2021?
Where do you think they will vary from this shot in the dark roster and why?


148 responses to “Future Astros part 3: A look ahead at 2021”
While there are several positions that should be locked up if the cost is not prohibitive, the biggest question mark will be the pitching. Probably the only remaining pitchers from 2018 will be Cole, Peacock, and LMJ. Hopefully some of our home grown talent will become our new Aces if we don’t trade them away. The core of Altuve, Correra, Bregman, and Springer will account for almost 50% of the payroll. Not the best situation to be in but we have to trust our GM/owners that they want to stay competitive (playoffs). As you pointed out, the farm system will have to produce. Let’s hope so. As the song goes, “the future’s so bright I have to wear shades”.
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ah a quote from timbuk 3. i liked them too zanuda as well as the guys back one post.
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This just hammers home the importance of not letting 2018 (and possibly 2019) be wasted. The window on a championship team is short unless you have the resources of an LA/BOS/NYY. While you don’t want to mortgage the future you still need to put yourself in the best position to win it all this year. The front office isn’t leaking what trade offers they attempted but couldn’t finalize.
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I tell you what I’m going to do. I’m going to forget about 2019 and 2020 and go with my gut on 2021. Player’s careers are developing and we see who delivers and who doesn’t on a day to day basis over a period of years. My lineup:
Bregman 1B
Altuve 2B
Beer 1B
Trout CF
Alvarez LF
Jones DH
Tucker RF
Nova SS
Stubbs C
My rotation:
Patrick Corbin
Forrest Whitley
Corbin Martin
Brandon Bielak
Jorge Alcala
Bench:
Myles Straw
Lorenzo Quintana
Jonathan Arauz
My Bullpen:
Deetz
R. Ferrell
Framber Valdez
Cionel Perez
Josh James
Hector Perez
JB Bukauskas
Christian Javier
I had so many good arms in AAA I traded LMJ as he was expensive and not reliable. I had a choice of signing a CF long-term, who is great one month and lousy one month, or Mike Trout, who is one of the Alltime best players ever, to a 7 year $300 million deal and I did that and let Springer walk. Freudis Nova is killing it in AAA and Correa is not going to sign long-term term, so I traded Correa for a huge return and restocked the farm.
After his bad 2018, I never went after Marwin and found less expensive alternatives. Nobody ever threw Marwin a fastball in the strike zone again. I Offered a QO to Keuchel after 2018 but I can’t tell you if he took it or not, because I can’t see into the future.
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Bregman is at 3B of course
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I can’t fathom Marwin being around in 2021. I can’t really fathom Marwin being around in 2019. He gave us such a great season in 2017. A career year. One might argue that without him, we don’t win the World Series. But this season, he’s much closer to his career norm, although this would still be considered somewhat of an off year. At this point, there will be no big payday for Marwin. So maybe that’s the best argument for him being back next year. Can we get better without him, without it costing more money?
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Agree on Marwin. Just curious who’d replace him? Tony Kemp is the obvious choice but his arm strength can’t compare with Marwin. Is that enough? You tell me.
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Luhnow is the one getting paid big bucks to figure it out. That’s too much pressure on me. Kemp can’t play 3rd or ss. But Bregman can play both. Yuli can play both corners. If White wins a DH job, he can play several infield positions in a pinch. If both Kemp and Straw come off the bench, it creates a dynamic that the club does not have with Marwin. But at the end of the day, Marwin’s versatility will keep him employed and if he does not listen too much to his agent, maybe still in Houston.
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I’d say your throw of the dart is as good as any, Dan. A few quibbles: I sure can’t see Marwin still here in 2021. And it just seems unlikely that the Springer/Altuve/Correa/Bregman core will be retained over the next 3 seasons. Certainly the Astros should be very competitive over the next 3 years, although the pitching quality will probably deteriorate somewhat absent a big trade or FA signing.
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My DH in 2019 is a relative. He’ll still be doing the job in 2021.
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dan i am just amazed at the amount of time and research you put in on these posts. i could MAYBE do 1 a month, but you crank em out with regularity – thank you.
as far as my answers go, heck 2021 is a long ways off and hard to see. i will say that the luxury tax threshold does go up over time and crane has shown willingness to spend when it makes sense (verlander), so maybe keeping the core four around has a chance to happen. so who will still be around? ill say altuve, correa, bregman, gurriel, tucker and perhaps springer. marwin will be gone. reddick will be gone. gattis gone. who the heck knows what the catching situation will be. gigantic turnover by 2021 with the pitching staff.
now if op can pull off signing trout to drop springer, ill sign off on that.
red and white, blue suede shoes. i’m uncle sam, how do you do.
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If they cannot sign Springer to an extension, they either have to trade him or give him a QO and lose him because he is well liked around the league by the fans and they all will want their team to sign him.
The reasoning about Trout is that the Astros will have money in this situation because if they give $43 million a year to Trout for 7 years, he will still have a chance to hit the market again late in his career, his bat will more than make up for Correa’s in the lineup, They will have big OBP and power in the top of their lineup and the only big contracts they would have would be Altuve, Trout, Corbin and Bregman’s arbitration. In this scenario the Astros have a $140 million payroll with one of the youngest teams in the league and have three potential HOF players in the top 4 of their lineup, along with the youngest and hardest throwing pitching staff in baseball, most of them with huge team control.
I probably would have had Patrick Sandoval as the #5 guy in the rotation, had he not been traded yesterday.
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So does that mean you’re not going after Bryce Harper this offseason?
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Devin, I am not going after Bryce Harper this winter. I want one of the big rich teams to get him and tie up their $40mil a year on him so that I can go after Trout. Machado will tie up $40 mil a year on another, Goldschmidt will tie up a ton of money on another. Kershaw will tie up a fortune on another and I intend to stick to my plan.
What if Trout doesn’t go with us in 2021? Then maybe we don’t trade Correa.
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Thoughts:
Zanuda – you hit on the key problem, which is if they do hold onto the core – the core will have gone from an extreme bargain to 50% of the payroll and that probably won’t work.
Devin – Absolutely – they need to strike in the next two seasons while they have such a strong team on the field
oldpro – A real good shot at 2021 – though I think someone from the present rotation or bullpen (even if it is just Devenski) will make it through and I am betting they will bring in at least one veteran to anchor the rotation. Love the thought of grabbing Trout.
daveb – The only reason I have Marwin there is that I thought they might be able to re-sign him after a down 2018. But they may have no interest – I’m fine either way – though there are very few Ben Zobrist – Marwin types that can play infield and outfield solidly.
roadthriller – Yes – keeping the whole core may be a pipe dream , though they have Altuve signed, and Correa and Bregman arb eligible through 2021 and 2022.
rray – I have gotten a lot faster in doing my research and my writing but I do appreciate the kind words. Thank goodness there are resources like baseball-reference.com and mlb.com/stats/sortable. I’m not having to go to the book store and buy a once a week version of Sporting News with player stats in them.
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Dan, I have Corbin as the veteran in the rotation and Whitley would have been on the team for a year or two at least. I didn’t include Devenski because he has turned into a two-pitch pitcher and his fastball velo is down already. He is terrible at holding runners and that delivery is the reason why he walks hitters and I don’t see him changing that delivery.
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any news today on a trade? i was fiddling around the house not thinking of baseball when a strange de jas vu feeling came over me that a trade was near.
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ok i am sick er um i mean pyschic, well maybe both, but a neighbor came by and said she would give me this batch of cookies if i would come over and relight her stove pilot light so she can make more.
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And that is your trade. In this trade, your neighbor gets immediate help with the stove, but you get long term benefit of cookies. I believe this trade is a tie. If you are able to move part of your cookies for a piece of cherry pie in another trade later, then you have won the trade.
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Astros-wise we of course have the Maldonado – Sandoval trade from yesterday… the speculation of a sell low trade for Ken Giles… and nothing else today.
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Old pro – who is Jones that you have at DH?
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Taylor Jones, DH/1B, currently at CC. Right handed batter with some power. I went with him because of the number of LHB I had in my lineup, especially toward the bottom of the order.
Did you think that me and Mrs. Jones had a thing goin’ on?
Dang, that brought back memories of an old balladeer we used to know!
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Taylor Jones is our new version of Nate Freiman.
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Hopefully with more talent. I got suckered by the last tall guy. I guess I like to see non baseball looking guys succeed.
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i wondered about that too op. maybe the guy from baltimore?
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whew that was way harder than i expected. but now i have cookies AND the astros are on a channel i get tonite. wooohooo
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Not sure if having the game on worked out in your favor. Our Astros are trying to out ugly themselves.
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Ok – old pro – my best guess at the payroll with the guys you have lined up (many minimum or close to minimum)
Everydays – $95 MM
Rotation – $10 MM
Bench – $3 MM
Bullpen – $10MM
Total – $118 MM
So op you would have room to keep a Correa or pick up some pitchers or whatever from a payroll standpoint
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Patrick Corbin is a free agent at the end of this year. In the 3-year(2019-2021) scenario we have been working on for the last couple of weeks, I signed Corbin to a long term deal like 4/88 or 5/100 this coming offseason. That way we had him to replace one of the guys we won’t have in the rotation in 2019 and to pair with LMJ in 2020 as I add the young guys like Whitley and Martin. After I trade LMJ for the year 2021(if he continues to be Jekyll and Hyde on the mound, to go along with a bad twitter) and replace him with Alcala, Corbin still has a year or two left on his big contract, so that’s how I arrived at the $140 million figure for 2021. Altuve, Corbin, Trout and Bregman are the big deals and almost everyone else is a young guy making the normal league minimums.
I eliminated almost all of the 4-10 million a year guys and decided that Trout, Altuve, Bregman and Corbin are my core guys and the youngsters and Quintana are good enough to compete. When Corbin’s deal is up, I try to give his money to Bregman and maybe look around for another solid veteran pitcher to add to the rotation, like I did in 2019 with Corbin.
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Aye caramba – sorry OP – in my mind I flip flopped names and was thinking of Corbin Martin (Astro prospect) not Patrick Corbin (Dback Pitcher) – haha.
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Yes, I actually have both Corbin Martin and Patrick Corbin in that 2021 rotation.
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And Steve Martin and Martin Short…
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who’s on first? (abbott and costello version)
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I wanted to add Dean Martin but he has been handed an 80-game suspension for melting a beaker in a drug test.
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I’ll go with Billy Martin
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How about Korben Dallas (Bruce Willis) from the 5th Element? OK I’m getting just a little bit silly.
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Korben Dallas leads to Dallas Keuchel….
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Would someone take charge of this blog. It has turned into Six Degrees of Separation. Which brings up Will Smith, that leads to Will (ie) Mays, that……….Ted Williams…….
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On a serious note why would we think Mike Trout will want to play for Houston?
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Multiple WS titles and a dump truck full of cash should alleviate that concern.
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Honestly Zanuda, I think a lot of players have watched our team from a distance and respect both the chemistry and results. We are front and center on the national stage and I believe we will be a desired destination for a lot of future FAs……unlike in the past.
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Works for me.
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Trout is decidedly not looking for a bright lights kind of place. He just wants to play. But he will want to get paid.
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In every scenario it seems we will be relying on a lot of our prospects (arguably an unreasonable number) to make it and stick as quality MLB players.
My only question is how do you get so many young guys enough playing time at the MLB level to get established by 2021 when most of the time between now and then is our window of contention and we will be forced to go with proven options that give us the best chance to win it all? You can only inject so much youth at a time without weakening the team.
Realistically, I think we will be pretty active FA players in the preceding offseasons. Especially for starting pitching.
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Well, Alvarez is already in AAA, so that next step is probably going to come next year.
Forrest Whitley is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball and he is going to be in AAA next year. If he’s ready, they need to find a place for him.
Tucker is going to start in Houston’s outfield next year IMO.
I gave #1 pick, Beer, until 2021 to make an appearance, so I’m not rushing him.
Corbin Martin is in AA right now.
Deetz, Ferrell, and James are already in AAA and Bukauskas is going to move through the system quickly.
If you look at my 2021 Roster, there are 5 Astros first round picks on that team. I will be surprised if that doesn’t hold true as I believe that would be an incredible feat for Luhnow. If Springer were resigned and Correa were still here it would be seven Astros first round picks.
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I’m with you. I agree with you on Tucker and I think Whitley is up for a cup of coffee this year and for good middle of 2019. I really like Beer’s bat (I just really like Beer – pun intended) and expect him to be in AA next year with a chance for a September look.
I still think its going to be hard to find sufficient playing time on the MLB team for that many youngsters and still be “playoff level” competitive. That’s a lot of arms to work into the MLB mix.
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Look at all those wonderful pitchers😍 simply delicious! I’ve been accused of being a pitchers only fan…..I stand guilty as charged!
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Based on the “new norms” for FA veterans, I don’s see DK getting a huge FA contract offer in the offseason. After wading through the FA waters I expect the Astros to lock him down for the next 5 years at something under $20M per season. Using Yu Darvish as a comp and backing out the “power pitcher premium” I’d say 5/85 – 90 is a fair deal. I’d be good with that.
That is unless he blows up down the stretch.
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Playing Devil’s advocate, if we got all of these young guns coming up, I can’t see us giving him 5 years. Maybe 3/45.
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If more than 3 of our young arms EVER stick in a MLB rotation we will be breaking the odds. If more than 1 slots in as a #3 or better we will be very lucky. We are going to need more than just our internal young guns over the next few years.
I’d definitely take DK at 3/45, unfortunately 30 other MLB teams would give him more.
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Just to chime in on how difficult is the transition to MLB, Pirates optioned RHP Michael Feliz to Indianapolis. 39 games this year with a negative WAR.
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I’m not sure how thrillled I am about having Keuchel back. He really has to be pinpoint to be effective. He’s done that for the past month, but then the Rangers come in and coax 100 plus pitches out of him in 5 innings.
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How good is the Astros starting rotation? The Cubs and Yankees traded solid prospects for Happ and Hamels to be “difference makers”. Neither would crack our 5 man rotation and it is possible that McHugh and Peacock would be ahead of them in the pecking order. It’s good to be blessed!
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Vewill1, I disagree. Happ’s BA against is .227. His OPS, .677. His WHIP is better than two of the guys in our rotation. He can go hard for 5 innings and the Yankees will be pleased to get that out of him with their pen depth. Hamels I agree with. As far as McHugh and Peacock go, we need them more than ever in our pen, at least in 2018.
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First, when Altuve and Correa are out of our lineup, the hitting becomes very ordinary. Second, as to the note above from vewill1, that was my first thought. Hand would fit into our team. I don’t think the another trades would have improved the Astros. Verlander (nor Cole) were available this year.
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Not looking good as DK gives up a 2 run shot and we’ve forgotten how to hit.
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I’m going to go out on a limb. I think the Astros complete a trade with the Marlins, before the deadline for Realmuto and Conley. Tucker will headline the trade and Stassi and Fisher will be included, along with 2-3 pitching prospects.
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In all transparency, I picked this up off of a Marlins twitter feed.
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Why didn’t they just do that in the first place VW rather than trade for Maldanado? Man, when we suckie at the plate we make mediocre pitchers look like Cy Young strikeout artist
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Maybe the trade for Maldanado was in anticipation of losing Stassi? Maybe 99% of what you read on twitter is BS ?
You are right on hitting. In last 3 games (extra innings excluded) we have played 24 innings with 6 hits and 4 runs.
If the rumor is true Realmuto’s bat would be a welcomed addition!
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If that’s the case Tucker was not the “Untouchable” that we thought he was.
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I don’t think the Astros are giving up on Tucker after 39 at bats.
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OP, you gave me a wild unction on your Trout proposal, made me kind of salivate at the prospect of landing him. Like for us to taste a bit of BlueBell on the FA market for a player of that caliber and magnitude other than JV
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Why don’t we trade for Albert Pujols? He has more HR in MMP than most of our lineup!
BIG tongue in cheek!
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He’d be the only one scoring tonight, lol. Looks like the suckie disease has infected the whole lineup and pitching this evening.
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Devo can no longer “Crack that whip”.
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lol keep em coming zanuda
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Embarrassing performance tonight. Makes me hope the Realmuto/ Conley rumor is true.
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Who is Ryan Presley from Twins, sounds like he’s a reliever. Announcers say the trade was made for two pitching prospects
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Take a look at his numbers. He’s a solid BP arm.
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Ryan Pressly to the Astros from Minnesota
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I do like the trade for Presley! Especially after tonight.
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Sorry, but I can’t get excited. Let’s hope he is another Salty Morton.
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He’s no CFM. He’s an innings eating middle reliever.
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Supposedly for Celestino and Alcala (who was a 2021 starter on OPs list) which shows how tough this prediction world is
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Well vevill1, the more these little trades diminish the prospect currency the less likely Realmuto comes into play
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Yes, and that really SUCKS! Shooting all our bullets on marginal players with minimal impact. I like the Pressly trade, but not with Alcala included!
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That’s it for me, can’t watch anymore
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Me to OldSchool. This is painful.
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Time for a “come to Jesus” talk. Where in the heck is Beltran????? And…WHAT in the heck is wrong with Devo? Think he’s hurt but not telling anyone?
I turned it off when Sipp came in, no point in making my blood pressure go crazy. JEEZE….. that was PAINFUL.
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Devo only has two pitches. Change up and fastball. When either one doesn’t work, LOOK OUT!
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They looked pretty lifeless tonight.
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Settle
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While Beltran specifically may not be the answer I do think Becky is onto something. This team is persistently bad on home games after a day off, seems to have zero sense of responsibility to play competitively in front of big crowds who have spent A LOT OF MONEY to be in the building, and cannot find any offensive consistency. Hinch is a fine manager but there needs to be some player who takes on the mantle of leadership. Altuve would be the obvious choice and after he upbraided McCullers earlier in the season I thought he might be the man but his own performance has been sub-par for him. You can’t hardly encourage every guy to treat every at bat with care when you’re pretty undisciplined yourself. Beltran’s resume and wisdom made up for his lack of performance in the field. Bregman has the fire and performance but let’s face it, he’s still a kid. Despite our otherworldly pitching I think our offense is destined to let us down even if Correa comes back soon. And remember it took him a long time to get back on track when he came off the DL last year. As much as I hate being a pessimist this season has been one mild disappointment after another.
PS: I recognize that it was probably necessary to send Perez back to Fresno but I really wish they had sent down Devenski. He’s reversed his successful pattern of high fastballs and low changeups for low fastballs and high changeups, not a good combo. He really does need to clean up his delivery or he will always be inconsistent. He reminds me of some of the kids I used to coach who had marvelous athletic ability but poor mechanics and fundamentals. There comes a time when just being a good athlete is not enough. He’s currently completely unreliable but I think, unlike Giles, redeemable. But the MLB level at this stage of the season is not the place for rehabilitation.
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Right now, it’s a bit of a reach for me to see these guys in the World Series again this year. A six game win streak might change that. A big trade would. However, I would have said pretty much the same thing at this time last year. At this point in time, other more significant issues in life have allowed me be only mildly frustrated or annoyed when I see this club underperform. I have zero control over outcomes. But at the same time, I’ve never spent so much time following baseball in my life. It’s so darn fascinating to watch the game evolve, for better or worse, before my eyes. Watching other teams prepare for a stretch run and wondering what Luhnow might get done is a daily exercise, first thing in the morning. As an aside, I like the Pressly deal. He can miss bats. And I think the nerds have figured out a way to help him miss more bats.
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This is a great team; both offensively and defensively. One or two games does not change that fact. The team has not slumped all season, even when faced with injuries to key players. They are not streaky. They just keep chugging along winning more than 7 out of every 11 games they play.
The team is fine. They will win the division handily and enter the playoffs as one of the top 3 seeds and will be favored to win it all.
I love this snippet from Marbach over at The Crawfish Boxes:
“It remains true, with regard to the Astros, that they have very few weaknesses. They really are the best team in baseball, and that’s not just a “homer” statement – regardless of won-loss records (which are an indication of how successful a team is, not how good it is) the fact that the Astros are very nearly lapping the majority of the field in Run Differential speaks volumes about the True Talent Level of this team.”
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I believe it was Mark Twain that said, “There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics.” Statistically the Astros are indeed a great team but we didn’t get the World Series trophy last year by being statistically superior but because we won more games than our opponents. Run differential is sexy but how a bout a sub-.500 record in one run games and our only 10 run losses of the season coming in the last four games at the hands of the woeful Angels and even more woeful Rangers playing without Gallo, Odor or Mazara. I don’t want to be the fan who says over the offseason that we had the best starting rotation and defense in MLB and led the world in run differential. I want to be the fan who says my team is the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees in 1998-2000. Now those were great teams.
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ok well a couple of things – my trade radar was pretty good yesterday!
i still have cookies and i think pressly will help us. if they keep putting games like that on i will not get nearly as excited i get to watch. i really like the assessment from Marbach above. time to put this last one behind us and keep chugging.
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Well last night was disappointing until I saw that Baltimore beat Tampa Bay by a wider margin. Then I noticed a pitcher for Tampa Bay has an ERA of 81.00. Pull this from your memory bank. His name is Carlos Gomez.
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yeah ac i think i remember seeing he had 4 walks and 2 HBP in an inning. apparently he swings too hard and cant throw hard enough….
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hahahahaha its wast 2 HBP it was two balks. thats even funnier.
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wasnt*. yeah me type good.
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Talk about great statistics. The Astros now have the dubious honor of having hit into 101 double plays. That’s almost 20 more than their closest team. I have a big problem with that and as it was mentioned last night, 10 were with the bases loaded. Maybe I’m a little pessimistic but you won’t repeat by doing that. Although I understand the trades, we gave up too much for a couple of “non difference makers”. As Becky said, somebody needs to kick this team in the ass so they can play to their potential. Thank goodness Seattle and Oakland lost last night. Those teams are getting bigger in the rear view mirror. If we just take care of business it’s no problem. But right now I’m not impressed.
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I don’t think we can worry about the double plays. We have a lot of guys on base. That’s one reason for leading the league. We could bunt more and avoid DP’s, but the nerds might already know that that is counterproductive.
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Here’s a few things to consider….
Pluses
– The Astros after last night’s debacle are 67-38. After 105 games in their championship season they were 69-36. So even with all the angst they are only 2 games behind last season.
– And remember….last season’s team went a very uninspired 11-17 in August. If this season’s team goes 14-14 over their next 28 games they will be a game ahead of last season’s record at the same spot.
– While Carlos Correa may struggle when he first gets back, he still makes them a better team – especially defensively when everyone is where they should be.
– It is not too crazy to expect better down the stretch from Springer, Altuve, Reddick, Gonzalez, and Tucker.
– They have done the best job of any team since that 1999-2001 Yankee team to put themselves in a position to repeat
Minuses
– Their starting pitching has been a bit more hittable lately, which was their strength
– A couple of their workhorse relievers (Harris and Devenski) have been plain bad lately
– Even when the offense does hit – it seems to wait well into the game until it does so
– The team is not as good at winning close games or coming from behind as it was last season.
– It does not seem likely (though with this F.O. who knows) that they will get a spark similar to Verlander out of this trade deadline (Now I hope Luhnow proves me wrong)
Bottomline – this is a very good team, but a different team than last season. Can they overcome their drawbacks and win it all? That’s why we watch
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dan i think our 2 moves so far, while not splashy, will definitely help down the stretch. im not sure luhnow is done, he doesnt want to give up top prospects ie tucker and whitley (which i agree with) but he is in a win now mode and another trade that makes sense maybe makes us too hard to catch, certainly for a wildcard and likely for the division. hard to see that happening because it would be real hard to send anyone still on the active roster down. maybe devinski for a tune up at AAA. maybe someone like paulino draws interest. i guess we’ll wait and see.
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To add on to your comments:
– The Astros have a similar W/L record despite the fact that their division is arguably the best in baseball this year compared to arguably the worst in baseball last year.
– Despite some struggles that team is among the top three in win percentage.
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And in other news, Chicken Little says the sky is falling………….
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Baseball is the most fickle of all sports. Here’s an example:
2 pitchers have 3 strikeouts, 2 walks, a single and a home run in an inning.
Pitcher A strikes out the first 2, gives up a homer, then a single, walks the next 2 and leaves the bases loaded when he strikes out the side. He goes back to the dugout a hero for getting out with only one run.
Pitcher B strikes out the first two, gives up a single, walks the next two, gives up a homer, then strikes out the side. He goes back to the dugout a goat for giving up 4 runs.
Same performance/ different sequencing. Sometimes you’re a hero, sometimes you’re a goat. Such is baseball.
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Here are my suggestions to win it all this year:
Springer – swing to hit it only 400 feet.
Bregman – now is not the time to stop doing what you are doing.
Atuve – watch Bregman bat. If the umpire does not call a pitch 18″ outside a strike, when it is your turn, don’t swing at it.
Correa – We need your bat and really need your DEFENSE. Get healthy.
Yuli – only bat when runners are on base.
Reddick – remember people said you can’t hit lefties.
Gattis – warm up the pitcher every inning. Then you will think you are catching that game.
Marwin – everyone in the league now knows you can’t hit a curve. So that is all you will see for the rest of the year. Get ready.
McCann – get well.
Maldonado – remember the Angels think you are no better than a couple minor leaguers.
And finally Harris, Devo, Smith, Sipp – watch Morton and Pressly. Learn how to throw a pitch for a strike that has a not of spn and movement on it.
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Awesome AC!
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DANG! The Yankees are trading for EVERYONE. They are hot and heavy on Chris Archer today. I feel for the Rays if they end up losing Archer, he and Snell are ALL they have for a starting rotation, and Snell is on DL!! I may be a little jealous, because I would love to see Archer in an Astros uniform!
I’m sending good thoughts for Verlander tonight! Gotta say I sure have enjoyed getting to actually watch our guys on T.V.!! Becky⚾
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Verlander is making his frustration with Stassi over apparent. That does not help anyone. It’s pretty clear the Rangers are having fun out there and our guys are not.
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Pretty much every game Stassi has caught him he has made his frustrations over apparent. I understand that he has an issue, but I feel as a veteran leader he should be mentoring instead of showing up a young teammate.
Most of his frustrations have been when a runner is on second (this game and previous games). Stassi must be getting the alternate signs crossed up.
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Another CY performance against us again tonight. As you said Dave, we’re not having fun. We can not afford to coast like we did last year. We need to do better than we have been.
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Kind of weird. Sounds like our AAA team raked against him but our big league team is getting no hit. Go figure!
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I think Sherman & Peabody have gotten us in the “Wayback Machine” and we’re now in 2016.
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Certainly not coasting. They are puckered up. And not to pick on one guy, but it becomes more apparent that Davis is a defensive liability.
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I sure wouldn’t mind having Beltre on the team down the stretch. Man can still hit and remains one of the best defensive 3B in the league. He is a joy to watch and seems to just love playing the game. He has already said that he wants to play 1-2 more years and I wouldn’t mind seeing his veteran presence around here for that time.
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That’s my sneaking hunch …
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Verlander is making extra pitches because of his defense, that is poor to terrible. Sorry. But that is the game I am watching.
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At least they won’t be no hit. I was afraid these guys were going to lay down tonight. I don’t “get” it. What’s the problem with my Astros for the last few games? They appear not interested in playing baseball….and 3 errors is NOT acceptable.
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As the saying goes, they are playing “uninspired baseball”.
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Elvis, welcome to the bandbox!
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Elvis is from Dallas. He is a plant. We should have known better. (Sarcasm)
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UN….BELIEVABLE
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