This is the third excursion into the fantasy world of how the Astros team might morph in the next three seasons. In our first two efforts, we saw the Astros make quite a few changes for both 2019 and 2020.
Now the psychic orb gets even blurrier looking at possibilities for the roster in 2021. Talk about your Butterfly Effect! Many of these guesstimates can be un-done by almost anything, including action or inaction at this year’s trade deadline.
The following players could become free agents after the 2020 season:
- George Springer
- Charlie Morton (based on the assumption they signed him to a two-year FA contract after 2018)
- Josh Reddick (if they don’t unload him after 2019 as we had assumed).
- Brad Peacock
The following players will face arbitration if they cannot come to some other agreement with the team after the 2020 season:
- Carlos Correa. His last Arb season
- Yuli Gurriel. After he plays out his original five-year contract, he becomes Arb eligible for two seasons (don’t ask me why)
- Alex Bregman. His second of three Arb seasons
- Max Stassi.
- Chris Devenski.
|POSITION||2020||2020 Salary||2021||2021 Salary|
|1B||YORDAN ALVAREZ||$600 K||ALVAREZ||$700 K|
|2B||ALTUVE||$29 MM||ALTUVE||$29 MM|
|SS||CORREA(ARB)||$13 MM||CORREA(ARB)||$18 MM|
|3B||BREGMAN (ARB)||$6 MM||BREGMAN (ARB)||$10 MM|
|C||STASSI (ARB)||$2.5 MM||STUBBS||$1 MM|
|DH||GURRIEL||$8.4 MM||GURRIEL (ARB)||$10 MM|
|OF||TUCKER||$600 K||TUCKER||$2 MM|
|OF||SPRINGER (ARB)||$16 MM||SPRINGER (FA)||$22 MM|
|OF||REDDICK MYLES STRAW||$13 MM $600 K||MYLES STRAW||$1MM|
|SWISS ARMY KNIFE||GONZALEZ||$8 MM||GONZALEZ||$8 MM|
|BENCH||TONY KEMP||$600 K||KEMP||$1 MM|
|BACKUP CATCHER||STUBBS||$600 K||STASSI (ARB)||$2 MM|
|SP||PEACOCK (ARB)||$7 MM||FRANCIS MARTES||$700 K|
|SP||COLE (FA)||$20 MM||COLE (FA)||$20 MM|
|SP||MCCULLERS (ARB)||$9 MM||MCCULLERS (ARB)||$12 MM|
|SP||MORTON (FA)||$16 MM||TRADE FOR VETERAN||$10 MM|
|RP||JOSH JAMES||$600 K||JAMES||$700 K|
|RP||GILES (ARB) DEAN DEETZ||$600 K||DEETZ||$700 K|
|RP||BROCK DYKXHOORN||$600 K||DYXXHORN||$700 K|
|FA PICKUP||$8 MM|
|RP||2018 TRADE DEADLINE PICKUP||
|2018 TRADE DEADLINE PICKUP||
|MISC.||PART OF REDDICK, ETC||
|TOTAL||2020 Total||$165.9 MM||2021 Total||176.3 MM|
If the guess at the 2020 opening day roster was a wing and a prayer, the proposed 2021 roster is a shot in the dark. It is obvious there will be major changes, but the actions they take will be a true reveal of what type of organization this is. How much are they tied to the folks who got them to the mountaintop? Do they tear back down to start over, spend themselves into a corner, or try to hang on while fighting the economics of the situation with the promotion of young (cheap) talent?
- Brad Peacock. Maybe they will avoid this situation by working out an extension before putting him in the rotation in 2020. If not, he may want that one big payday.
- Josh Reddick. If they don’t let him go in 2020 they will surely send him down the line after his $13 MM a year contract runs out.
- Charlie Morton. If he is thinking seriously of retiring now, he will likely head out to pasture after his imaginary two-year/$32 MM contract runs out in 2020.
Looking to Keep
- George Springer. The guy is the heart of the team and even in a down year, he still can give them a lot more than most teams ever get from their leadoff hitter. And there is no obvious replacement for him in the minors behind Kyle Tucker.
- The biggest challenge in 2021 will be how to complete the rotation, especially if Peacock and Morton are both gone. There is a fair chance that the Astros may go out and do another Gerrit Cole trade in that off-season to fill one of those spots or to pick up another Morton-type.
- Or…. perhaps it is time to see what some younger folks can do in that rotation. Francis Martes will be 25 y.o. headed into that season and hopefully ready to step into a bigger role.
- Depending on what their budgetary concerns are, the Astros might spend a bit more in the bullpen – especially if the 2020 season does not go so well.
What do you think about this shot at the Astros future?
Can this team still be a contender with so many changes between now and 2021?
Where do you think they will vary from this shot in the dark roster and why?