Why it’s way too early to worry, but concern is okay

As your faithful servant is writing this, the Astros are up 1-0 in a West Coast game that will end when I am fast asleep. I have no idea if the Astros will be 12-7 heading into Thursday or 11-8 and frankly I don’t really care. I don’t really care if they are 1-1/2, 2-1/2 or 3-1/2 games behind the Angels tomorrow. Well, sure I would rather they narrow the lead to 1-1/2 games against LAA, but for the point of this post it does not matter.

Why? Let’s look at what the American League looked like after 18 games in 2017 and what it looked like at the end of the season.

AL East Teams 2017 – Thru 18 games Games Back 2017 – Season Games Back
Baltimore 13-5 —- 75-97 18
NY Yanks 11-7 2 91-71 2
Boston 10-8 3 93-69 —-
Tampa 9-9 4 80-82 10
Toronto 5-13 8 76-86 17
AL Central Teams 2017 – Thru 18 games Games Back 2017 – Season Games Back
Detroit 10-8 —- 64-98 38
Cleveland 10-8 —- 102-60 —-
Chi Sox 9-9 1 67-95 35
Minnesota 8-10 2 85-77 17
Kansas City 7-11 3 80-82 22
AL West Teams 2017 – Thru 18 games Games Back 2017 – Season Games Back
Houston 12-6 —- 101-61 —-
Oakland 10-8 2 75-87 26
Texas 8-10 4 78-84 23
LA Angels 7-11 5 80-82 21
Seattle 7-11 5 78-84 23

Judging by the first 18 games, you might think….

  • The Orioles with the best record in the league were going to have a special season. You would be wrong as they ended up last in their division 18 games back.
  • The Red Sox were going to be a bit wobbly as they were barely above .500 and in 3rd place in their division. You would be wrong as they rolled to the AL East title.
  • Detroit was going to compete for the AL Central title as they were tied for 1st. You would be wrong as they would end up with the worst record in the AL and finish 38 games out of first place.
  • Minnesota was going to have an off year as they were below .500 and in 4th place in the Central. You would have missed the Twins earning the second Wild Card.
  • Astros were going to have a great season…well you would have been right on that one.

The point being that 18 games is nothing, a blip on the radar and not worth worrying about.

Worried about the Astros individual hitters? Look at these numbers after 18 games….

  • Jose Altuve…..did not hit his first HR until his 18th game.
  • Carlos Correa was hitting .217 BA and .623 OPS with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs
  • Alex Bregman? He had a decent .256 BA, but with 0 HRs and only 4 RBIs
  • Marwin Gonzalez….an eerily similar to this season .174 BA/.296 OBP thru his first 18 games
  • George Springer – Big power numbers but .216 BA and .284 OBP
  • Evan Gattis did not finish with the .321 BA/ .400 OBP/ .918 OPS slash he sported after 18 games
  • Jake Marisnick though having his best season would go down from his .273/.385/.930 slash

I am not saying there are not concerns, but don’t lose sleep after just a little over 10% of the season has lapsed.

So do you have worries or concerns and what are they?

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102 responses to “Why it’s way too early to worry, but concern is okay”

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  3. Just having fun, the only 2 things that concern me this early are that JFSF is worse than ever at the plate and Fisher looks like maybe a good designated base runner and that’s it. It seems like Giles has disappeared.

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  6. Good point Dan. It’s just that the bar was set so high that we thought that we should be 18 – 1 right now. Realistically we could have been. Do we expect to win every game, no. It’s just frustrating when the much ballyhooed hitting has been MIA far too often. GC was not on his game last night but did well enough to keep us in the game till the bats finally woke up. I’m probably more surprised at the numbers noted by 1OP. I bet their fans are chomping at the bit literally. I would expect that they will come around too but I’m focusing on our team. I do believe changes will happen if certain players can’t get out of their funk. Fisher and Jake come to mind. At least Fisher did make a HR saving catch last night.

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  7. Several thoughts…
    – It was nice to wake up to an Astros win, an Angels loss and a number bigger than 2 runs scored
    – That Fisher catch was bizarre – I’m getting old but it looked like he never got off the ground and he was so calm about it – at first I thought it was a homer and then I saw the reaction of the Astro bullpen guys behind him and I knew he got it
    – 12-7 record…. On a pace for 102 wins – I’ll take it
    – All this Global Cooling is playing havoc with the games played – Some teams like the Astros have played 19 games – the Twins 13.
    – Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Nats are spending a loooooooottttt of money for .500 or so records
    – The Red Sox are trying to run away and hide.
    – Nice to see the Rangers 5.5 games back of us

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  8. I worry that Altuve with only 24 hits in 19 games will not play 162 games and will not get his projected 204 hits. I also worry that much more when he makes an out. I also worry that I also may worry too much. Then I worry that I may not be worrying enough. Then again, I may just be concerned.

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  10. So if you are the Red Sox at 15-2 and on a 143 win pace are you happy or unhappy to get Drew Pomeranz back and have to insert him in the rotations?

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  11. The concern is not just because our Astros, after leading the league in a ton of offensive stats last year, are not leading in any offensive stats this year – it is also because of who all is ahead of us in all those offensive categories. Example:

    1. BA – we are 12th; Boston is 1st -but hitting better than us are 3 teams in our division – the Angels [2nd in the league], the A’s [3rd in the league], and the Mariners [10th in the league];

    2. OBP – we are 14th; Boston is 1st – but getting on base at a better clip than us are two division opponents – Oakland [2nd in league], and the Angels [10th in the league].

    3. HRs – we are 22nd; Colorado is 1st – but with more HRs than us are the Angels and A’s [ties for 2nd in the league], the Rangers [9th in league], and the Mariners [15th in the league].

    4. Runs – we are 13th; Boston is 1st – but scoring more runs than us are both the Angels and the A’s [who are tied for 2nd in the league].

    5. Offensive Ks – we are tied with the A’s for 23rd worst in the league [Marisnick’s horrible at bats account for a lot of that]; the Angels and the Mariners are way better – in fact, they are both among the league’s least strikeout prone teams – behind the offensive stat dominating Boston Red Sox, who have only struck out a league best 115 times in 17 games.

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  12. Not that I feel sorry for those teams like the Twins with all the make up games they’ll have to play later on in the year, but it sure was dumb spending all that money on their new house and not putting a roof on it.

    Over on the All Things Astros page today, the majority of the customers there are clamoring for the immediate promotion of our 21 year old savior with the .235 BA and the .703 OPS. I think us older guys, especially knuckleheads like me and Bill, are far more mature and level headed. But Bill, although it will probably happen at some point, we don’t need to win 10 in a row. We just need to keep going 12 and 7.

    Jose Altuve is ice cold and hitting .320.

    So if one of our guys wins Cy Young, who is it?

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    • The question of who among us might win the Cy Young is interesting to say the least. While the usual ‘it is early’ protestations are appropriate, and it’s likely none of our staff will actually win [Berrios, Porcello, and Sale are all looking pretty good], AND just using traditional pitching stats, Gerrit Cole is way ahead in the race amongst the Astro hurlers. Right now GC leads the staff in ERA [Morton is 2nd], in total Ks [Verlander and LMJ are tied for a distant 2nd], and in BAA [Verlander is 2nd]. GC is also tied with Verlander for the lead in WHIP.

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    • I don’t get it – Giles is reported to have escalating back tightness – and the next line is that DL is not being considered yet? Consider it, do it, and give the man a week or so to rest, then if he does well send him out for a couple of stops in the minors in a rehab role. If he’s not feelin’ absolutely peachy, I quite frankly don’t want him anywhere close to an Astro game. He isn’t anywhere near good enough to compensate for a tight back.

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    • Well apparently the ownership sensed the problem and replaced the manager, who has not done well the last 4 years, but also has not had enough bullets in his gun.

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  15. The ghost of Cy Young, who has made it his purpose in death to haunt and harass the Astros, is now inhabiting the body of Marco Gonzales. Springer, Altuve, and Correa? K-K-K.

    This would be funny if it didn’t happen so often.

    #WeMakeBadPitchersLookUnhittable

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    • Never in Marco Gonzales’ career has he averaged even one strikeout for inning pitched. He has a lifetime ERA of 5.84 and a lifetime WHIP of 1.7o1. He has now struck out 7 of the first 10 Astros he has faced.

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    • It was really a double play and a really bad baserunning gaffe by Evan Gattis, who apparently forgot there was nobody out when he came up to bat.

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      • Situational running I guess – did he think there was one or two outs? Does the DH have anything else to think about?

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  18. The MVP hits a double with the bases loaded and we are up 4-0. Those crooked number innings are making feel good again.

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    • Sure was a weird game, but some really good things happened too.

      It’s almost time to start wondering when Jake is going down, rather than if he is going to go down. Do we get Kemp and White at the same time?

      Gattis is going to stand in front of kangaroo court on the way to Chicago I think.

      We might need a couple of new bullpen arms any day now.

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  24. Charlie….what more can you say! Between Marisnick and Sipp the Astros owe them nearly 8 million dollars. Both of them are hurting this team. I know Luhnow loves Jake, but at some point you gotta face facts. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I *CRINGE* everytime I see Sipp come outta the bullpen.
    And……don’t EVEN get me started on that stupid triple play😠
    I’ll put our starting rotation up against ANY team right now! They are that good! Becky⚾

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  25. Not to get too far ahead but the “support players” we have will probably look quite different next year. Based upon what we are currently seeing, these will probably be gone:
    JFSF
    Sipp
    Gattis
    Marwin (Possibly)
    Giles (Maybe Traded)
    To add to Becky’s comment, “ain’t our starting 5 pitchers the cat’s meow”.

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  27. In case you didn’t watch the game, here are some random things that happened, in no particular order.
    -Correa fouled a ball directly off of his knee and it looked like he might get taken out.
    – But he stayed in and lined a ball back at the pitcher’s face that got deflected by the pitcher’s glove to the SS while Correa sprinted like a demon to 1st base.
    – The triple play caused by a bad swing with runners on and nobody out and a stupider move by Gattis to leave 1B after being safe.
    – Charlie Morton got hit by a line drive on his pitching elbow that got caught in the air by somebody near second base for an out. Morton threw two warmup fastballs and proceeded to start getting guys out again in the normal ways like before he got hit.
    -Two Mariners managed to not catch a foul pop that both could have had.
    – Seager let a grounder play him that rolled down the line in LF and the left fielder boxed around and managed to commit an error on.
    -Then Seager missed a line drive hit to his glove side that he should have had -Haniger had a fly ball hit over his head that he went sideways on instead of backwards.
    -Dee Gordon had a long drive hit by Springer eat him up in RCF. Gordon looked exactly like a second baseman playing CF.
    – Jake is so awful that he tried to bunt. Twice. And failed. Twice. Then struck out. Again
    -Reddick hit a popup to short CF that two guys could have gotten, but nobody got. Marwin scored from third, but Bregman had no chance to get to second and got forced out. Since there was a force at second, nobody got charged with an error, but Reddick got an RBI, even though he failed to get a sac fly.
    – The Mariner’s starter struck out seven of the first nine batters he faced. Then he got bombed, just like the Astros announcers said he has been doing all season.
    -The Astros struck out 11 times.
    – Hinch would not even look at Gattis after the triple play.
    – Hinch would not even look at Gattis after he singled and got thrown out by a mile trying to stretch it into a double.
    – Hinch said he did not want to talk about Gattis’s baserunning after the game.
    What did I forget? I’m sure I forgot something.

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    • Not sure that taking the option on Jake would help. He is a career .225 hitter and .278 in the minors and fall league. He is not a hitter. So doubt there is anything to work on in the minors. So you keep him for is his talent, or trade him, but just don’t see him as ever being “an average hitter,”

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    • I’m beginning to believe that in the PCL you can’t consider a pitcher to have been ‘bombed’ unless he gives up 15 or more runs.

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    • And later, trailing 7-0, the Grizzlies offense got going and they scored 10 runs in the last three innings to storm back and win the game 10-8. Garrett Stubbs had 4 hits, and Tony Kemp and J.D. Davis both had 3.

      Fresno is to pitchers what Siberia used to be to Russian dissidents.

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    • Yeah, I noticed that. first, I hope he’s healthy. Second, I hope he’s working on a particular project to improve some part of his game. It would be a shame to come all this way and have your game disappear. He had no trouble with AAA ball last year.

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  30. No excuse for Gattis’ blunder. I thought maybe the 1st base coach might have goofed too but he was telling Gattis to get back on the base. Obviously his mind was not on the game.

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      • Gattis has hits in his last three games. Small sample, but he’s going to get some more time. Our focus right now has to be the more pressing issues Fisher and Jake.

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      • Very simple solution – Gattis gets up and hits the ball, but Fisher or Jake run the bases for him – I think I saw this in T-ball some time…..

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  31. I have to thank OP for his review of all the weird plays in the game yesterday. I was stuck at work reading the play by play on the Gameday from mlb and some of these plays made no sense at all – especially the Reddick pop-up. Was the sun really bright or the wind crazy because they really had trouble with a lot of balls in the air?

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  32. And while our starting pitchers were throwing nails, and 2/3 of our offense was finally showing signs of life [aided, of course, by quite a bit of horrible defense from the M’s], the Red Sox kindly swept the Angels for us.

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  33. Looks like relatively comfortable dry weather in Chicago all weekend. Still chilly, but we’ve been playing in worse for the past couple of weeks. Maybe I’m being a bit piggy here, but I’m looking at the good guys flying home with a 16 and 7 record on Sunday night. And I’m looking for 20 to 25 runs scored.

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  34. Since the White Sox used tonight’s planned starting pitcher, Shields, in their 14 inning loss Wednesday night, they currently have that sneaky starter TBD up for tonight’s game.

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  35. Looking further into that Fresno win last night, the winning runs for the Grizzlies scored on a passed ball. Stubbs was on third and Tony Kemp was on second and they both scored what proved to be the winning runs on the same passed ball in the ninth inning.

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  36. Before their day off, the White Sox were swept by the A’s. They were outscored in that series 30-14. They have lost 4 in a row.

    They will be hungry. Let’s hope our guys are hungrier.

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  38. Every Astros position player, with the exception of Bregman, has a higher K rate in the majors in 2018 than in 2017. Some of the increases are dramatic.
    This team is acting radically different than last season’s team.
    And Bregman’s 81 wRC+ more than nullifies his lower K-rate.
    The only thing that looks promising is the very low BABIP of most of the Astros’ usual producers. Offsetting that is the extremely high BABIPs of McCann and Stassi. Let’s hope the guys with low BABIPs come around before the catchers come back to earth.

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  39. Moncada had several big games against us late last season. And a grand slam yesterday. He’ll soon be an MVP candidate at this rate.

    And the way the ChiSox won their first two games, they looked invincible this season. Since I have a good friend whose a fan, I’ve watched them — and especially look terrible the first two games against Oakland. Since they don’t have much protection for Yoan, pitching pretty bad and depleted, I don’t think they’ll pose much threat this series.

    I do worry, really, that what I’ve been seeing as to the Stros just watching strike three, and specifically not making adjustments as teams pitch down and in (Jake vs Correa). The reason Jake needs to be relieved for awhile is that while he’s run some counts deep, his contact rate is inexcusable at this level. It’s is especially true if there are more deserving prospects.

    I wonder again when our rotation will begin the “greatest ever” discussion, and that’s what makes me less critically minded about overall offensive woes. Lately, our clutch meter has been rising, while we begin to pull away late in games, which feels more like the norm.

    I don’t think they’ve announced yet since Shields met the Sox demise last night, so they may they pass the start to Giolito, who leads the league in two categories. HBP (4) bad, and HR9 (0) good! Prediction: Astros sweep

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  40. Driving home before lunch I was listening to Sports talk 610 AM and John Lopez was quoting the M’s Jean Segura who was wondering how Morton went from a 91 mph hurler to a mid/high 90’s pitcher when guys are supposed to throw slower as they get older.
    Lopez while not directly accusing Morton said you can’t blame people for questioning how this happened.
    I don’t like this kind of speculating but I know folks are trying to get more hits, tweets, twits and listeners.

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    • This article puts some of the blame on Ray Searage (Pirates PC), and on Strom’s ability to harness spin rate. Morton and Cole’s fb fights against gravity and gives the appearance of rising.

      “The combination of those things [vertical release point, and consistency] is giving his fastball better rising action than it’s had at any point in his big-league career. That movement (plus batters trying to be ready for the more serious threat of a breaking ball) is resulting in the kind of swing-and-miss results a fastball like his should always have enjoyed.”

      A good read.

      https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/39080/rubbing-mud-astroification-gerrit-cole/

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  41. He threw 25 starts last year with that kind of velocity. Unless he’s figured out a new way to cheat, he’d have been caught by now. Everyone wants to be an expert and toss around irresponsible opinions. Yeah, it pisses me off too.

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  45. So I’m taking full credit for my blog post causing the batting renaissance. As soon as the guys read to not worry they started hitting – voila.

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    • Sort of like the guy at the track that gives you a tip before each race. He is wrong for 6 straight races. Then he picks the winner on race 7 and comes to you and wants to split the winning ticket.

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  47. Luhnow has a dilemma….what to do with Jake. His one at bat was 0 for 21 tonight. I didn’t even see him hug Correa when he hit that 2nd homerun.

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    • Both Jake and Fisher are fortunate the club is 14 and 7, largely without their help. As ugly as it has been to watch these guys try to hit, there is no real urgency for either guy to get demoted at this point. At some point though, if they don’t hit, they’ve got to go somewhere, maybe a rehab facility.

      Collin McHugh sure looks good on the mound these days.

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  48. What a dominating game – Chisox with only 2 hits all given up by JV the slacker.
    Crazy that we were scoring 2 runs per game – now 10 runs – no problem.

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