Why it’s way too early to worry, but concern is okay

As your faithful servant is writing this, the Astros are up 1-0 in a West Coast game that will end when I am fast asleep. I have no idea if the Astros will be 12-7 heading into Thursday or 11-8 and frankly I don’t really care. I don’t really care if they are 1-1/2, 2-1/2 or 3-1/2 games behind the Angels tomorrow. Well, sure I would rather they narrow the lead to 1-1/2 games against LAA, but for the point of this post it does not matter.

Why? Let’s look at what the American League looked like after 18 games in 2017 and what it looked like at the end of the season.

AL East Teams 2017 – Thru 18 games Games Back 2017 – Season Games Back
Baltimore 13-5 —- 75-97 18
NY Yanks 11-7 2 91-71 2
Boston 10-8 3 93-69 —-
Tampa 9-9 4 80-82 10
Toronto 5-13 8 76-86 17
AL Central Teams 2017 – Thru 18 games Games Back 2017 – Season Games Back
Detroit 10-8 —- 64-98 38
Cleveland 10-8 —- 102-60 —-
Chi Sox 9-9 1 67-95 35
Minnesota 8-10 2 85-77 17
Kansas City 7-11 3 80-82 22
AL West Teams 2017 – Thru 18 games Games Back 2017 – Season Games Back
Houston 12-6 —- 101-61 —-
Oakland 10-8 2 75-87 26
Texas 8-10 4 78-84 23
LA Angels 7-11 5 80-82 21
Seattle 7-11 5 78-84 23

Judging by the first 18 games, you might think….

  • The Orioles with the best record in the league were going to have a special season. You would be wrong as they ended up last in their division 18 games back.
  • The Red Sox were going to be a bit wobbly as they were barely above .500 and in 3rd place in their division. You would be wrong as they rolled to the AL East title.
  • Detroit was going to compete for the AL Central title as they were tied for 1st. You would be wrong as they would end up with the worst record in the AL and finish 38 games out of first place.
  • Minnesota was going to have an off year as they were below .500 and in 4th place in the Central. You would have missed the Twins earning the second Wild Card.
  • Astros were going to have a great season…well you would have been right on that one.

The point being that 18 games is nothing, a blip on the radar and not worth worrying about.

Worried about the Astros individual hitters? Look at these numbers after 18 games….

  • Jose Altuve…..did not hit his first HR until his 18th game.
  • Carlos Correa was hitting .217 BA and .623 OPS with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs
  • Alex Bregman? He had a decent .256 BA, but with 0 HRs and only 4 RBIs
  • Marwin Gonzalez….an eerily similar to this season .174 BA/.296 OBP thru his first 18 games
  • George Springer – Big power numbers but .216 BA and .284 OBP
  • Evan Gattis did not finish with the .321 BA/ .400 OBP/ .918 OPS slash he sported after 18 games
  • Jake Marisnick though having his best season would go down from his .273/.385/.930 slash

I am not saying there are not concerns, but don’t lose sleep after just a little over 10% of the season has lapsed.

So do you have worries or concerns and what are they?


102 comments on “Why it’s way too early to worry, but concern is okay

  1. At 25 years old, a year out from TJ surgery, lefty Kent Emmanuel is finally looking a like the quality pitcher everyone thought he would be when he was drafted out of North Carolina. In an extreme hitter’s league, he is now 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a .155 BAA. In three starts and 16 innings, he has struck out 16 and walked only 2. He hasn’t allowed a home run. Keep up the good work, Kent!

    Liked by 2 people

  2. I hope JD Davis keep hitting and get a chance, he has to do better than a .118 average. and might be comfortable in that 9 spot, DH play some first, Margo can do some left.


  3. Just for purposes of comparison, presently DK’s numbers, after 4 starts, are:
    Record: 0-3 [of course, this is not all his fault];
    ERA – 3.64;
    WHIP – 1.478;
    BAA – .270, and
    23 IP with 19 Ks and 10 BBs.


  4. – After seeing his batting average drop 60 points in the last 9 games, Kyle Tucker went 3 for 6 last night.
    -After 2 really good starts at Buies Creek, Corbin Martin got to find out what it’s like to be a rear end. In his first appearance as the back of a tandem, he went 4 innings and gave up no hits, no runs, 1 BB and struck out 8 and got a save. Three groundouts and 2 flyouts. 76 pitches, 51 of them strikes.
    -Lourdes Gurriel, Jr was teammates with Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero, Jr for New Hampshire before his callup to the bigs Wednesday night.
    – So far, in the 2018 season, the Astros are one of the best fielding teams in baseball. I’m thinking it may have to do with all the soft contact hitters have against our starting pitchers, but I hope I’m wrong about that.

    Liked by 2 people

    • OP, both our corner infielders will continue to improve. And unless we start putting guys like Davis or White out in left, we don’t have a soft spot defensively. Our guys have done a better job than most clubs in coping with all the crappy weather they’ve been playing in. The defensive trend should continue.

      Liked by 2 people

    • It also helps that there is a lot of NO contact from the other teams. We lead MLB in Ks, Ks/inning and are best in earned runs allowed tied with Minnesota and Cleveland with 49 except that we have played 21 games and they’ve played 14 and 17 respectively. We lead MLB in staff ERA. Good defensive teams need to be strong up the middle and with Altuve, Correa, Springer/Marisnick, and McCann/Stassi we match up with just about anyone. That’s also why I think the Angels will hang in there most of the year but their pitching can’t match ours.


  5. I think Tim Anderson has no clue what he did to his team last night.
    He was clueless horse dookie and his team folded up after his brain fart.
    You would hope James Shields would be the guy to straighten him out after the game, but Shields was acting like a spoiled brat after he got taken out, so I don’t know who they have to fix it.
    I don’t know what the spark was that ignited the Astros, but it seemed to have happened right after Dallas Keuchel’s complete game loss to the Mariners. It sure would be interesting to know if it happened off the field, or if it was something on the field like LMJ’s masterpiece or McCann’s two run bomb that set this team on fire.
    Maybe we’ll find out sometime.


    • For a guy only four years younger than Altuve, Anderson seems of a totally different generation, at least from a baseball standpoint. I was wondering last night what might have happened had he provoked Jose in any way.


  6. I wonder how ticket sales are for the Angel’s series in Houston starting Monday night, especially with Ohtani scheduled to start on the mound on Tuesday.


    • you know it sure is a nice feeling when “The Man” is on the mound and he plays for your team. i wonder how many more seats are sold when verlander is on the mound.


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