Free Blog Friday: What we don’t know far outweighs what we know

As per a Chip Bailey tradition, let’s go Free Blog Friday today. You can talk about anything you want Astro-wise, but a hunch informs us that trade deadline talk will dominate, so here are a few trade related nuggets to consider.

What We Don’t Know #1

It is easy to look at teams that are poor performers or are “out of it” and cherry pick the few good players that fill our team’s needs, but what we don’t know…..exactly which players are really on the market. Think

of it this way. Fly back to 2014 and the Astros were out of the pennant race and other teams would like to trade for one of our few good players – Jose Altuve (.341 BA/.830 OPS) or Dallas Keuchel (12-9 2.93 ERA) or Collin McHugh (11-9 2.73 ERA). And the Astros either said they weren’t interested in trades for those folks or set the bar so high other teams weren’t interested. Sometimes teams that are down want to trade one really good player for four “ifs” and sometimes they want to build around the good player.

What We Don’t Know #2

Fans don’t know a lot about our own team’s prospects. Oh yes, we see their rankings and we see their statistics, but rarely do we see them play and we certainly can’t “look” at them with the statistical tools that the team has in its tool belt. We don’t know how the team values its own prospects, don’t know what it projects them to grow into and don’t know how they value one position against another. When they look at Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley how do they value one that is 9 months younger than the other, that one is at A+ ball and one is at AA ball, that one is an OF and one is a pitcher? How do they value a potential five tool position player against a 4 pitch starter? Without knowing that, we can’t possibly know who really is untouchable in the organization.

What We Don’t Know #3

We don’t know how many moves ahead the chess players in the front office are playing. When they traded Domingo Santana (and don’t make yourself sick by looking at his 2017 stats) to the Brewers in July 2015, did they take into consideration that Derek Fisher was already rolling up through his 4th minor league level after a little more than a year in the system or did they think they had the future covered with the drafting of Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron the month before?

What We Don’t Know #4

Fans don’t know the behind the scenes information relative to injuries. We know they value their medical staff’s opinions greatly. Their opinion led them to the embarrassing (at the time) Brady Aiken non-signing and the “re-negotiation” with Cionel Perez after medical issues were identified. How concerned are they with the recent injuries to Lance McCullers Jr., McHugh, Morton and Keuchel? Were they being overly careful with Keuchel especially considering how huge a lead they have in the division? Did the doctors say – “If you keep Keuchel out 4 weeks he has a 95% chance of recovery, but if you keep him out 6+ weeks, it is 100% sure thing?”

What We Don’t Know #5

We really don’t know what exactly the Astro’s front office is looking for out in the world and what value they place on different factors. Are they adverse to picking up a rental? Do they want someone with playoff experience? Do they want control for X amount of years? Do they think they can get better performance out of someone because of them coming to a better team? Do they want someone who has proven it in the pressure of a pennant race? How injury adverse are they? How burnt are they from the Scott Kazmir Experiment? Are they playing to win this year all-in or do they think they have enough horses to make it without a trade?

So…. you can write about whatever you want, but if you want to pick up the thread – what do you know and what do you not know?

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102 responses to “Free Blog Friday: What we don’t know far outweighs what we know”

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  1. Unfortunately my crystal ball is not working so I can’t foretell the future among the numerous trade/no trade scenarios. Having said that I have to take heart in AC45’s previous post and see what the Astro brain trust comes up with. What ever it is we can just hope it ends up bringing a WS title to H-town. In this case the powers that be might be in a no win scenario. Yet to quote Captain James T Kirk he found a way because as he said, “I don’t believe in the no win scenario”.
    In the mean time we all will continue to cheer for our guys and look forward with immense anticipation to winning the LDS and finally a World Series Championship. (Boy is this deep or what?) If nothing else it sure is fun.

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    • I really agree with ac45 that you have to say – this front office built one of the best teams in the league from Altuve and ashes. You have to trust them at the deadline.
      I will reiterate something ac45 also said which is he doesn’t want folks coming back on a couple months and saying they “knew” the front office blew it by making the wrong move, blew it by making no move, put them over the top by making the right move, etc. We can guess but we don’t “know”.
      Even after all these years I don’t “know” whether the Astros made the right move with the Randy Johnson trade. It turned them into a great team for half a season and they still failed in the playoffs. And Randy was not pitching that great when they made the move but was nails afterwards. Is Verlander this years Big Unit?

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  2. Strange thing – On the radio they announced Felix was being sent down to AA but I can’t find that confirmed anywhere – anyone seen anything?

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  4. Dan, you mention the 2014 assets, but recall the team was marketing Cosart, Keuchel, and McHugh. Luhnow basically said they felt they had some depth and redundancy and that they could move them – but preferred not to move Keuchel. Ultimately, they got Marisnick, Martes, Moran, and the draft pick that became Daz Cameron for him.

    Obviously my opinion matters little to big leauge GMs, but that’s huge and flies completely in the face of what teams are trying to do right now. Marisnick was blocked by Ozuna and had no future in Miami. Moran had lost his luster after posting sub-par power numbers. Martes was a lottery pick that Luhnow insisted on and Miami didn’t put up much of a fight. Compare that to what teams are asking Houston to give up for anyone in 2017.

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      • Devin to go along those lines – what we didn’t know is how the front office valued Cosart vs McHugh or Keuchel.
        They must have had a feel that Cosart was the one who could get them most and would hurt them the least.
        The Cosart trade looks potentially like the best one of the Luhnow era.

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      • What I remember( and that doesn’t mean it’s gospel) is that the Marlins were really hot for Cosart.

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      • I think you’re both right. It’s also an example of a situation where most of us fans were wrong and the front office was right.

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  5. Dan, I really enjoyed your post and gave it top rating . It really makes one realize how little we do know, which is why I mentioned what my desires were concerning the Astros. What I would like the Astros to do is really the the only thing I’m positive about.
    And when the year ends I will say what I want to say and ignore what anyone else tells me not to say. Of course, I will be courteous. I am the cow in the herd who is not going into the pen. I know I’m going to end up in the trailer, but I’m going when I want to go and nobody is going to talk me into it. Shoot me and then drag me.

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  6. Dan, thank you for this deep, deep post. Since what I don’t know has always outweighed what everybody here knows, I’m in like Flynn twice over.

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    • Diane I knew you were going to say that (-;, I couldn’t resist. In Uncle Jeff we now trust, I still vote we need that big arm in a SP and a big time lefty in the pen, but I know the tooth fairy doesn’t really exist.

      We will see what happens, either way it should be a fund rest of the playoff ride.

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  7. For those of you that have better things in life to do, that re-read old posts, here is a cut and paste of Diana slapping me about the face and head again.

    astrocolt45
    July 28, 2017

    Could I please get everyone to agree to the following: 1. In a couple days, please do not post, I KNEW that JL would make/not make a trade. I KNEW JL was too risky/cowardly when it comes to trades. 2. In October, please do not post I KNEW at the trade deadline that JL blew it/guaranteed the win in the World Series.

    This blog is expression of opinions. Some agree and some disagree. I get so tired of reading other places about the Astros where people don’t know anything until after it happens and then they KNEW…….

    sandy
    July 28, 2017

    You have my word on that AC. I put my trust in Luhnow this year and I won’t go back on it.

    Diane
    July 28, 2017

    I KNEW you were going to post this.

    astrocolt45
    July 28, 2017

    Just read your comment to my wife. She died laughing. Then added “I KNEW women are smarter than any man.”

    Kevin
    July 28, 2017

    Not that right there was good Diane, love the humor, you bet me (-:

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  8. One thing for sure about Chipalotta and the reason that I keep up with it is that I don’t know more than all of you folks don’t know, therefore when I want to know, I check here to see what you know.

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  9. Hey to everyone who has posted above and all the other folks who read and comment on these posts… I found writing this an interesting and humbling experience. I pride myself on being a baseball buff and pretty knowledgeable in the game. When I started writing this post yesterday I thought “Boy, I’ll be lucky to fill up a couple of these ‘What We Don’t Knows’”. Soon I was on #4 heading to #5 and realized how much in this area is pure speculation.
    I love the folks on here because I learn a lot about baseball, human relations, and life from y’all.
    I love baseball just because it surprises me and teaches me and humbles me and excites me.
    I love this Astros team because it truly is a team – it produces more than the sum of its parts most nights. It plays baseball the right way (except running the bases – haha). It has great spirit and it is the best team I have seen in my 50+ years of Astros watching. It is not perfect, but it also works like the devil to overcome its imperfections. In my heart of hearts I believe this is the one – this is the team I have waited for all these years.

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    • Dan, over the years I have read comments by leading and learned scientists and mathematical geniuses saying in effect: “What we know compared to what we don’t know is a joke.” In that sense, baseball yet again reflects life. I remember one astronomer saying that if you just lie down under the sky long enough at night, you will see things that will blow your mind. And in fact he went further, saying that things were happening that indicated to him that his own mind might be confronted with the unimaginable in his lifetime. Oh well, back to work.

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  10. David Price to the DL makes the KC-Boston series this weekend all the more intriguing.
    The Royals are starting to look very familiar.

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    • KC is only 2 back from CLE and currently in the WC2 spot. It feels like we’re seeing some teams fall off and will soon be left with only BOS, NYY, TAM, CLE, KC, HOU, SEA as the teams in the playoff hunt. I guess the Rangers at 4.5 back of a WC are trying to stay in it too.

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  12. The Marlins must not have liked what they heard after they put Dan Straily on the market yesterday. They took him off the market today.

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  13. Gerry Hunsicker: “In this business when you’re trying to put yourself over the top, we find out very quickly that, the overwhelming majority of the time you make a trade, it doesn’t get you there.”

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  14. I’ve made the same point about what we don’t know many times, especially about other teams’ players though. But after reading your thorough questions specifically about what we don’t know, I have to interject with some differences.

    Connecting dots.

    We don’t know how the Stros feel about Sipp (example)? It seems pretty obvious that we have inserted him in the (to my thinking) weirdest spots. Like, “are you trying to ‘throw the game’, Hinch?” During his 2017 clean innings, you could see his breaking ball swing/miss looking like his better 2016 form at times, and then others … not so much. Since everyone and their mother said preseason he was the weak link in the pen, tied to a contract which made him difficult to unload – what we DO know is that we’d like to trade him if he’s not performing. We do know that his playing time has been innings-eater or lefty lefty related. We DO know that no matter what the FO thinks of him, we’d still like to have a Miller type, or shutdown lefty (because we’re fans, we want it ALL!)

    What we don’t know is this: the heart of a champion. We study stats ‘n tendencies stats ad infinatum, and it proves nothing about the future except there is no guarantee. Stats are numbers that give us a warm fuzzy, something we can control and get our arms around. But when your drafting or helping shape these young men after they’re in the fold, beyond the talent, you’re looking for character work ethic and the passion to not settle for less than going all the way.

    That is exactly Hinch’s challenge to the team in the Spring. We don’t know what the outcome, but we know if we outwork our competition, our chances are better.

    To quote the incomparable, Gary Player, “Some say I’d rather be lucky than good. I say the more I work, the luckier I get.”

    I’m firmly in the trust Luhnow camp, and that the team assembled can do this. Where I begin to realize I’m wrong is playoff time when BOS LAD and NYY can massively outspend us. So, I’m torn over guys like Fisher Whitely Martes and Tucker. I just see them figuring in perhaps heavily next season. A lot can happen until then – one more thing I don’t know. It’s humbling.

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  15. Rumor CentralThe Astros have been linked to several of the upper-tier pitchers on the market, including Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish, and would be casting a wider net if they seriously pursue Santana. Berardino hears the Astros are seeking a “true difference-maker.”

    Of course, we don’t know if this is true😉

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  17. Becky made a comment about her husband now watching the Astros. Well same thing here with my wife. A few years back she would walk into the room when I watched the Astros, the comments were “Why do you keep punishing yourself.”

    Now the comments are much wiser. Like “Can Hinch not see from the dugout what is happening on the field.” Or “When Sipp pitched last week, Hinch was writing something down. Did he write- just bad luck.” Or “Why send the pitching coach to the mound. Either he doesn’t know what to tell him, or they don’t listen.” Or “Do they have to let Aoki bat every inning.” Oh to watch in silence again.

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    • You’d hate watching a game with me, then. It’s talking too often, and rewinding the action, questioning and yelling at the tube, loud WOO’s, running around jeopardizing the integrity of the furniture – you name it.

      It’s a contact sport, right?

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      • LOL!! I talk throughout the game TOO! Since I can’t see them I have to envision what the play was, or the pitch! We would get along very well……I like Bud Light!!

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      • Good man, Grayson. That’s my preferred beer as well. I used to get really excited when I found establishments out here on the East coast that carry it.

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      • Now I know why I am such a Becky fan. I am also a Bud Light person. Cheers to you, Becky and keep kicking that cancer’s backside.

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    • I’m a big Fisher fan, but Springer is “my guy”. If we’re really trading George time (precaution) for Derek time, it just goes to show that we’re cruising, and can afford to take one of our MVP candidates and shelf him, along with every other core player we’ve given extra rest to. That’s what I call a full cupboard.

      Ok, maybe one more steak in the fridge, or a cheesecake for dessert? Hand, Liriano, Stroman? Are we really looking at Beltran’s protege’, Yonder Alonzo?

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    • I really don’t think George is really hurt….like Kevin said, they need to see more of Fisher…..as do we!! Plus……Luhnow is showcasing him to include him in a trade.
      The A’s, are looking for guys just like Fisher!

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  20. I don’t “know” much, other than I KNOW this is an amazing team! I don’t pretend to know what Luhnow is gonna do by 4:00 Monday afternoon. If he signs another starting pitcher, and another lefty out of the bullpen we are ALL going to be thrilled.
    If he HAS to use trade chips that we covet…..I trust HE knows a lot more than I do.
    *IF* this is our year, then I want Luhnow to make the moves to make it so. All of us are fans, along with thousands of citizens of Houston, and around the United States.
    Jim Crane and Jeff Luhnow owe it to ALL of us to do everything they can do to bring a championship to this city. I hated to use the word championship, because that word was so over used when Drayton owned this team. There I said it…….I’ve been trying not to say the words for fear of jinx them! All eyes are going to be on our favorite Dallas tonight, and I’m going to pray very hard that he does well after being gone for 2months!
    These are the things I DO know:
    1. I’m going to be ok…..one more chemo treatment!
    2.I dearly love my husband, who has been my EVERYTHING through all this!
    3. Baseball will still be going strong, when I’m long gone!
    4. This blog and all who post here have become friends of mine, and I cherish each and every one of you!
    5. Life is short…..don’t waste one minute on things you can’t contol!
    6. The Astros are gonna win the AL West in 2017!!

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  21. I think there will be a trade that none of the experts saw coming. And don’t ask me what it might be.
    This is good rest for George. No sense in taking any risk making a minimal injury worse. My only concern is if he’ll still have his timing intact after two weeks on the pine.
    The A’s and Tigers and a couple of other organizations are hoping Keuchel has a bad night.
    The sellers are holding out for a big ransom. Who folds first and pays?
    Or do the buyers all hold out and force the sellers to take a bit less late Sunday night or early Monday?

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    • It’s a good question, Sandy. Except with an unblemished record & starts in the minors, it’s not as though this is Spring Training, daveb. My gut feeling is he’s been chomping at the bit for awhile.

      I still am never going to be convinced with Peacock in the pen. It’s the most assinine and insulting move we’ve made this season. He’s pitching better for a season than ANY starter we have! The stats are there. And almost effortless the way he’s gone about business [sigh]. It’s infuriating, but I have to let it go.

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    • I say, if he is ok physically, by start 3 back, he will be ok , 2 months off rusty , even Sandy Koufax would have struggled same scenario.

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  26. Well…..we will see McHugh tomorrow, and McCullers Sunday. The only long guys in the pen are Peacock, and Musgrove. We gotta hope one of these guys can pitch at least 5 innings.
    Marwin #19!!

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  27. Jeremy Hellickson was scratched from his start tonight…..a “mystery” team is in trade talks with the Phillies. Please pray it’s not the Astros. Ugh.

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  32. That was incredible! I am so proud of this team. They have so much fight.
    After having a really bad game in Philly and falling behind early, they manage to claw back and come from behind. That is such a great win!

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  36. I can see using Peacock out of the pen last night since he pitched 3 innings Monday and proved to be a great insurance policy for Keuchel. Going forward though I would hate to see him used as the guy you bring in when your starter fails. Let’s face it, Peacock is our most effective pitcher right now so why not use him in a situation where he has the chance to give you a win every time out (starting) vs serving as someone who stops the bleeding? The only other role that befits his performance would be closer or 8th inning guy which I could go for. He’s only allowed two HR this year which is way better than every other reliever except for Giles and Peacock has pitched twice as many innings as Giles. IF we get the Giles that showed up last night on a regular basis then he and Peacock could be a devastating late game combo. Let Musgrove be the bad start insurance policy.

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    • The Tigers have a notoriously bad bullpen. They have had a bad bullpen for years, even when they were a winning team.
      I believe with all my instincts that Peacock was put into last night’s game in order for the Astros to win it. I believe the Astros players instinctively knew that Peacock being inserted into the game meant that Hinch did it to hold the line and allow Astros hitters to come back and win it.
      Peacock has been great and Hinch put that guy out there to be the rock and he was. It worked.

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  38. I wonder if it is just me. But when I look at these BLOCKBUSTER trades of the past couple days, it reminds me of the 400+ trades of Frank Lane. (Dipoto is only 49 -but may catch him). These are just insurance policies for GMs to keep their jobs by saying “We tried…..”

    At least Lane had the chutzpah to even trade his manager to another team. It would appear there is no way these trades will increase the odds of these teams winning anything.

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  39. drbill14, the pen, and rotation for that matter, is going to be used differently once we get to the post season. It will be very interesting to see who is playing what role as we approach October baseball. Peacock seems to be effective in most any role. In post season play, any one inning, early or late, can determine a game and have a big impact on a short series. He’s extremely valuable for his versatility. And don’t feel bad for him. He’s had a rough road to get to where he is at 29. My guess is that he’s having the time of his life.

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    • And that’s where the difference lies. Your belief Peacock is happy doing whatever it takes to find success and help his team win. Every player will say that, and believe it to a large extent.

      But it’s common knowledge that pitchers work their butts off to be Starters. Maybe I’m thinking too much for him, “pulling for him,” and following the precept that playing time is given to those who Earn It.

      At this point, I agree that it’s not that big a deal who pitches in which slot. We’re trying to space out guys by their rest and work schedule. For example, Morton looked awesome last start and needs to stay on his schedule (along with McQ and DK).

      Where it’s an insult to me re: Peacock is that he shouldn’t be the guy relegated to ANYthing, except by his choice. Why do we give a McHugh more leeway as he’s the No. 3 per se, when Brad has been the workhorse this season?!

      I realize playoff time will probably be completely different, depending on whose hot.

      Couple of examples of ups and downs, long season, is Devo Hoyt LMJ and Luke. These guys are running the gamut almost week to week.

      Hey, we all have favorites. I’ve been pulling for Peacock since September 13, 2016 vs TEX..

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  40. Offensively, the Astros are the only team in baseball with over 1000 hits on the season, and the only team with less than 700 Ks.

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  41. My heart says: No trade. Why?

    1. As Mr. Hunsicker said, it is a truth universally acknowledged that if you’re trying to get over the top, a trade almost never gets you there.
    2. The 2017 Astros are a stepladder team: When one player falls off, another steps up. I have never observed this as much on any previous Astros team. Reddick last night. Peacock last night.
    3. The chemistry is there. Even Jeff Bagwell says the locker room reeks of it. No joke. Why risk that?
    4. The odds are against them going all the way — at least in my mind. But I do not see any one player so far mentioned who can walk in and single-handedly change that.
    5. The chances are, if we do trade, we will sacrifice a future star, and possibly a future Series.

    That’s my High Five.

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  42. Looking at drbill’s post, I’m inclined to agree with him. Maybe Peacock should be in the rotation and and maybe even look at McCullers going to the BP. When the playoffs start, it will be real interesting how the rotation and line up will go. And who remains on the playoff roster. (A good topic for Dan or Chip to address).

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  43. Kind of a follow-up to Peacock tying Keuchel for the team lead with 9 wins apiece – we know if Dallas had not missed so much time he would probably be up around 13 wins by now.
    Still a couple fun facts….
    – If you look at the 11 Astro pitchers with winning records they are an amazing 57-17
    – If you total up Keuchel, Peacock, Hoyt, Paulino, Martes and Jankowski – they are 25-1

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  44. Being redundant make the deal that makes sense to get us the best shot in 2017-18 to be World champs, GO for it Uncle Jeff…

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  45. Manager Hinch has not always been one of my favorites. But he’s taken a pitching staff with unprecedented losses to the starting rotation and somehow managed to manage his collection of arms; several with little or no major league experience, others with rather erratic statistics over their careers and a few who have put together career years, into a staff that is one of the best in baseball on a team with far and away the best record in the American League. I sure am cynical at times, but I’m not going to criticize or second guess right now. It would be a weak argument.

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  46. The A’S are going to pull Sonny from tomorrow’s start. The Yankees are hot to trade for him, although they are balking at the top prospects the A’s, want. It also appears we will lose out on a trade for Brad Hand, or Justin Wilson, as well. Oh well………..at least it was fun fantasizing about having a STUD like Sonny Grey. Reddick will lead off tonight!

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  48. Don’t know how many saw the video of DanP’s best friend and umpire. Blue Jay’s Happ had two outs and threw what he thought was strike 3. He took two steps toward the dugout, put the glove to his face and probably said something. Angel Hernandez came out from behind home plate, walked past the catcher and started yelling at Happ. Just looking for anything to throw someone out of the game.

    [video src="http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2017/07/28/1659889583/1501285448149/asset_1800K.mp4" /]

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    • I couldn’t find it astrocolt45! But…..if it’s Angel Hernandez I can visualize how it played out. He’s soo disgusting.

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