Correa injury almost guarantees a big trade for Astros

No matter how you slice it, 209 + 50 does not = 16.5. But that’s exactly where the Astros find themselves in mid-July, just days before Jeff Luhnow’s deadline to secure the best season in franchise history.

Key starters — including Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., Charlie Morton and others — have missed a total of 209 games on the disabled list. Carlos Correa is likely to miss 50 before returning in September to warm up for the playoffs.

Yet, the Astros enter today’s games with a 16.5 game lead with the best record in the American League.

Luhnow and A.J. Hinch have pieced together a deep roster that has allowed Houston to be cautious with its fragile rotation and has one of the best benches in the game today (read: Marlin Gonzalez). But as the team goes deeper into the summer, that fragility may fracture an otherwise strong position.

The Correa injury demonstrates what losing a key part of the cog can do. While Gonzalez and others may fill in admirably, Houston needs to be on full-on status down the stretch.

What does that mean for the next 10 days or so?

Luhnow is now in a position where he must add a strong, key pitcher. Keuchel and Collin McHugh are coming back and, while they will likely be strong down the stretch, there are no guarantees.

An ace to go alongside Keuchel is the recommended prescription and that will be costly, especially at this late date in the trade zone. Yes, Brad Peacock has done nicely (8-1 record), though it’s hard not to do well when your team provides 8.77 runs/game while you’re on the mound as a starter. Yes, the bullpen has done well, but that may wane in the hot summer days after being taxed with a rotation that hasn’t gone deep most of the season.

If you were in doubt about a trade, the Correa injury almost guarantees it. It’s just a matter of whether Luhnow finds the best trade partner fit for a strong reliever or key starter. Note: With Peacock headed back to his original role in the pen, Houston may have already made its best possible acquisition there.

Make no mistake though: It’s too early to start talking magic number, but Houston will still win the division, probably handily. They will lose a little flexibility since the injury forces Marwin into a fixed position, rather than filling in all around the diamond. But that’s about it.

Quick questions:

  • Does the Correa injury give you pause about the stretch drive or the playoffs?
  • How badly is the pressure now for Luhnow to add a TOR starter?
  • Many of you have already chimed in, but should Hinch just move Alex Bregman over to the six-hole and let Colin Moran have his shot at third?
  • As the summer heats up, what are you watching closely regarding the lineup and roster?
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148 responses to “Correa injury almost guarantees a big trade for Astros”

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  1. Hey Chip good to see a fellow Coloradan. For some reason I just get the gut feeling they will stay pat. If anything I see them getting a Lefty in the pen.

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  2. * Does the Correa Injury Give You Pause About . . . . *

    The Correa injury really hurts (no pun intended, Captain). And yes, it gives me ‘pause’ about both the stretch run and the playoffs. It does not make me doubt that this team will make the playoffs, but it does make me question what kind of momentum we will have – and how much gas we will have left – when we get there. Correa is not known as a fast starter – witness his dismal numbers in April of this year. He always seems to take awhile to get in rhythm and get going. Assuming his surgery, recovery, and rehab all go well, will there still be enough time for a guy like Carlos to get back on track as our clean-up hitter and as our ultimate go-to-guy in the clutch? I want to think so, but his contributions are pretty critical – and will be even more so when we start facing play-off team TORs at the top of their game every single day.

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    • Bill,

      He has only had 2 April’s (2016 and 2017) and last year he put up a 123 wRC+ in April so I am not sure if there is any track record for slow starts. I think it could be more attributed to adjusting to major league pitching after the WBC for 2017. The bigger concern is whether his wrist will be 100% by the playoffs, but I am not concerned, if he’s healthy, on returning to the hitter we know he can be.

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  3. I agree that the biggest hole is having a “good” lefty for the pen. As for the rest of the rotation I have a suggestion. How about going to a six man rotation. Keuchel, McHugh, LMJ, Peacock, Fiers, and Morton. This keeps your staff plenty rested for the stretch drive and hopefully if a piece falters we don’t get ourselves in a hole. I believe we have enough quality players to pick up the slack for Correa (not a replacement) but look how the rotation performed with Keuchel and McHugh out. Give the guys a chance before trading the good prospects away. I realize it’s a calculated risk but I’d sure take it.
    As to your questions:
    1. Pause but no big concern unless the group decides to perform a disappearing act (Alien abduction).
    2. No, the price will be outrageous and we seem to be doing nicely, thank you.
    3. I agree with this assessment. Let’s give it a try.
    4. See my opening comment.

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  4. *How [heavy] is the pressure now for Luhnow to add a TOR starter *

    I really don’t think the Correa injury affects that issue a whole lot one way or another. I think the pressure to add some kind of pitching was strong anyway. I now think, due to other factors, the pressure is probably more in the area of the bullpen, and less in the area of starting pitching. What factors am I talking about?

    1. There are not really any impact TORs available [the best shot was Quintana, and he’s gone];
    2. The prices being asked for Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, and DeGrom are exhorbitant, especially considering their injury history and lack of impact for their respective teams this year;
    3. the fact that any trade for the best option for starting pitching – Sonny Gray – would be with a team in our division;
    4. the fact that Brad Peacock is doing things – in every facet of his game – that make a return to the pen suddenly seem counter-intuitive;
    5. the fact that without Correa in the line-up, late game rallies are probably going to be a lot less likely, so we need to manage innings 6, 7, and 8 a lot better.

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  5. *Should Hinch just move Alex Bregman over to the six-hole and let Colin Moran have his shot at third? *

    In terms of best available options, I think that vs righties Hinch should let Bregman play SS and let Moran play 3rd, and vs lefties he should let Bregman play SS and Marwin play 3rd. If Moran tanks like he did last year, send him down and give J.D. Davis a shot at 3rd. If both Moran and Davis tank, bring up Reed again and put Gurriel back on third.

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    • Well, I fully agree with you, especially considering that Bregman IS a shortstop by trade. However, it appears, since Correa has gone down for two days now, that Hinch does not agree with us. After all, how many major league wins, as managers, do we have?

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      • For what its worth, I would not have started Moran [a left handed hitter] against Paxton [one of the best lefties in the game] either.

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    • There’s a reason why Marwin will get the majority of starts at SS while Correa is out. Correa will be returning to SS when he gets back and they want Bregman to continue getting as many reps at 3B since this will be his primary position, probably for several years. Let’s not forget that Marwin’s natural position is SS as well and he’s just as capable as Bregman of handling the position for the next 6-8 weeks. Hinch did say Bregman will get some starts at SS.

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  6. Off subject for a second – this is my response to old pro in the previous post saying that the Astros want Peacock in the bullpen – that they need him in the bullpen….

    I ran into Colonel Jeff Luhnow Jessup over in Cuba the other day (must have been scouting more Gurriel brothers) and he told me the following when I asked about Peacock going to the bullpen.
    “Son, we live in a world that has ‘pens, and those bullpens have to be manned by men with guns for arms. Who’s gonna do it? Hoyt? Sipp? Or you Lieutenant Dan P? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Peacock leaving the rotation and you curse the Front Office. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know, that Peacock’s demotion to the ‘pen, while tragic, probably will save arms. And my existence and the decisions I make, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves arms! You don’t want the truth, because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want Peacock in that ‘pen. You need Peacock in that ‘pen.”

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    • Dan, You’ve been hanging around Mr Bill too long. I heard a comment being made by a bunch of Rangers the other day. “Who are those guys?”
      Evan Gattis – “I love them smell of the long ball in the early evening. It smells like victory.”

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  7. Chip – this is an interesting post and I’m not sure I know whether this makes an acquisition of a TOR a certainty. The biggest question has been and continues to be – what true TOR is available? It is likely to be somebody who is very good for a bad team and the risk there is that some of these guys when they are thrown into contention (e.g. Kazmir) melt.
    Yes, it makes a lot of sense to add a top arm because you have your best shot in quite a while to win it all. But you have to have a trade partner and you have to be ready for sticker shock.

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  8. * As the summer heats up, what are you watching closely regarding the lineup and roster *

    I personally will be watching, in order of priority:

    1. Dallas Keuchel’s return – especially IP, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, GO/AO, and HR/9;
    2. Colin McHugh’s return – same statistical issues;
    3. Springer’s production – since the ASB, George has shown signs of cooling off; we need him to get and stay hot; with Correa gone, we can’t absorb a prolonged funk like George has shown a tendency to sink into. If George can’t stay close to .300 in BA and keep hitting doubles and dingers, and keeping his strikeouts down, we will need to consider moving Altuve back to the lead-off position;
    4. Beltran’s production – with Correa gone, he absolutely has to get and stay hot, and be Mr. Clutch for us. That’s what he’s making the big bucks for.
    5. Will Harris’ return – we really need that guy to anchor our pen; as Harris goes, so goes our pen;
    6. Aoki’s production – when Nori turns the bottom of the order over for us, we have a run-scoring machine; he’s been heating up lately, but if he can’t do it over the long haul, I think we have to be ready to pull the trigger and call up Derek Fisher;
    7. Hoyt, Sipp, and Giles – never a dull moment with those guys. Every time I hear any of those names called I cringe. If I was a drinking man, my liquor cabinet would be named after them.

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  9. I think the Astros need to step back and bask in what they have earned (16 plus game lead) and not do something that we will all regret down the road like trading a future star like K. Tucker for a Sonny Gray or someone else. Just go out and get a reliever for a few prospects (not Tucker or Martes or Whitely) I think we will be fine, Dallas K is on the way back, plus Mchugh. And please, leave Peacock in the starting rotation. Correa will be back and should be fined if he ever slldes into home headfirst again.

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  10. “Luhnow is now in a position where he must add a strong, key pitcher…” — agreed. But it’s not necessarily forced by the Correa injury. They just need a strong #3 for the postseason.

    Regarding Colin Moran — play him! Bregman at the 6-hole gives Hinch much-needed options with MarGon.

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  11. Just read on mlbtradrumors that Correa has announced via Instagram that he had his surgery today and that it was successful.

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  13. The only thing that I can see happening differently now, is that if there was any thought of trading Bregman as part of a deal for pitching, he’s no longer on offer.

    That said, Luhnow is going to get it done.

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  14. 1. No pause or concern
    2. The pressure in this case is all an illusion. Last year we tanked early and couldn’t come back after Keuchel and LMJ stayed down. This year we are in a different position. As for October, you only make a trade if you know the guy you’re getting can slot in at a 1-3 slot…or if you have legit concerns about Keuchel and LMJ.
    3. In the minors, Bregmans basically did a Villar imitation but forgot to bring the dazzling plays to balance it out. I’m not sure who would win a footrace between him and Marwin, but I suspect Aoki can beat both of them. However, the shifts mitigate the lack of range. If I’m Luhnow, I kick the tire on Zack Cozart, but only if Cinci admits it’s a rental and not worth a top prospect. If that Astros put Moran at SS any then you have your definitive answer on Bregman’s future value.
    4. I’m not watching anything closely. Beltran, Reddick, and McCann brought veteran leadership and I think are smoothing over the lineup. I’m mostly watching Altuve as he chases another 200 and just hoping we don’t hit any more injury bugs.

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  15. Hey guys, I’ve been driving for a couple hours, so let me respond to your thoughts and expound on my thinking. Here’s why I believe the Correa injury pushes Luhnow closer to making a trade for a pitcher. Springer has cooled a bit, Beltran is no longer vintage 2004 and, as Mr. Bill postulates, the offense may suffer by having to shift around hitters. With the bullpen already pressed and the dog days still ahead, we don’t need to add any pressure on the existing rotation. Not to mention NO ONE knows how Keuchel and McHugh will perform (or for how long) when they return.

    Not trying to be Debbie (or Donny) Downer, just saying that Luhnow may have need another straw to get him to give up what he will have to to get a quality starter.

    AND…another question for you: What three pitchers are you willing to put up as 1-2-3 in the playoffs? Keuchel, McCullers and …

    Just sayin’ for continuing the conversation…

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    • Assuming only guys who have pitched for Houston in 2017, I would put Morton at #3. With any of them I’m hoping for five very good to great innings.

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    • Chip, if you’ve been driving a couple of hours, I sure hope you haven’t been on I-25 in or around Denver. If so, you probably haven’t gone more than a few feet, and everybody around you has road rage. Interesting place to drive.

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      • Mr. Bill, that stretch of I-25 between Denver and the Springs is one of the most horrific stretches in America. And, that includes the crazy, zany stretch between Baton Rouge and New Orleans! And when the wind is blowing, you’d be best advised to stay home!

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    • But I do wonder how close the manager looks at stats. Yuli is so much better hitting against rightys than leftys … his line against leftys is .237 BA/.265 OBP/.652 OPS

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      • Dan, understanding Luhnow more now, I’m guessing that Hinch is looking at stats that you and I wouldn’t even know exist…like how well Yuli hits when the manager has his back turned and the third baseman is under/over 6 foot, in an early game when the ground crew forgot to cut the grass short and the hot dog supply is likely to run out with the wind blowing at 4 clouds in the sky on a getaway day with his left shoe untied. Or maybe not.

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      • Case in point, Evan Gattis at DH. Paxton is a superb lefty. Evan Gattis’ slash line against lefties this year is an abysmal .207/.266/.697. But he hit 2 home runs [against a righty, of course] last night. Ergo – a start, and an o-fer in the making vs. Paxton.

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    • Dear Mr. Home Run. Please come back home to our side of the box score where you belong. You have been having way too much personal conversation with the Seattle Mariners. Do you not love us anymore?

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  19. No one from FO asked me but I think that Bregman at SS and Moran at 3rd needs to happen NOW. That puts Margo on bench or in left. Then Margo can spell all infielders for a rest day. My vote on pitching continues to be 2 bullpen arms. (One or two lefties). No fan of bringing up a prospect to sit on the bench.

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  23. Dan, I can’t hold that one against Springer. That ball might come off that wall into the leftfielders glove 1 in 50 times. Then he made a perfect throw.

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    • I’m torn on this one. The replay shows that the ball is in the LF’s hands before Springer reached 2B. With the short porch in left he was able to turn and make a strong throw to Seager’s chest in the air. Unless Springer lost track of the ball he probably should have held up at 2B. If we weren’t trailing by 3 runs at the time I might be a little more supportive of the aggressiveness.

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      • What I saw was a replay of yesterday. Several close outs on the bases. Didn’t hurt yesterday but may have hurt today when folllowed by the error. If a team refuses to use the bunt because outs are precious then smart base running should be precious. Being aggressive has worked for the Astros time again this year. It hasn’t worked the past two days with Altuve also getting thrown out.

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      • The big question in my mind is whether a significant line-up change needs to be considered. Correa was the anchor – the solid middle. Clearly Beltran is not up to that. Against any TOR pitcher, Gattis can’t either. Who do we have that might be better in the middle? Maybe Springer should be given a shot in the clean up spot? If he goes into a Springer-slump like he has before when we needed him the most, maybe let Gurriel try? Other than that, I don’t see much – without bringing up Fisher and praying a lot.

        I am thinking about a radical shift in line-up while Correa is gone, namely something like:

        vs. righties

        Altuve
        Bregman
        Reddick
        Springer
        McCann
        Gurriel
        Beltran
        Moran or Marwin
        Aoki

        vs. lefties

        Altuve
        Bregman
        Gurriel
        Springer
        Marwin
        Gattis
        Beltran or, against some lefties, Reddick
        Marisnick
        Aoki

        Look, if we go into Baltimore and Philly and average 6 or more runs and 12 or more hits a game, including a couple of multi-run dingers per night, resulting in 4 or more wins, I’ll feel a little better. I just looked at the middle of Seattle’s line-up, with Seguro, Gamel, Cano, Cruz, Seager and Valencia as their 1-5, and realized that without Correa, they are just flat a better offensive team through #5 than we are now.

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    • I wonder how long it will be before they put Altuve in the three-hole in Correa’s absence. Methinks that’s where they’ll be headed after they try the rest of the 25-man roster there.

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  27. Well, I’m sure he’s never had a -0.1 WAR on July 19 before, but if he’s got one more streak left, now is the time. Conversely, if he shows nothing over the next couple of months, Luhnow might not make room for him on a playoff roster.

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  29. Today answers two questions for me. Who was the star of the game and what pitcher should the Astros go after? They are the same answer, Paxton. I said the same thing in April.

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  30. Boy…..tough game today. I’m not sure if a healthy Correa would have made any difference with Paxson on the mound……the guy is just THAT good. I gotta admit Charlie Morton has been better than I thought he would be. I’m already nervous just thinking of Mchugh’s, start on Saturday. Keuchel is scheduled for another rehab in Corpus on Saturday and I wonder if that will be all he needs to get back. Sonny is starting tonight against Tampa, and I would think the Astros would have someone there to watch. I’m not being mean,but I wonder if Hinch was expecting too much by putting Yuli at 1st base. He had another error today, and the second one was reversed to give the M’s, a hit. I still think Luhnow trades for a TOR before the end of the month. K Tucker is on DL, think he gets included in a trade anyway??

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  31. I don’t think the loss of Correa is a prime motivator for going after trades for pitchers.
    I think a bunch of losses would be a prime motivator.
    I think Bregman could play SS on an irregular basis and let Moran play third against some RH pitchers, but I think the job is Marwin’s to lose.
    I think there is less pressure on Luhnow to trade for a starting pitcher now than a month ago when there were four pitchers hurt.
    Sipp’s performance the other night on top of his lousy performance the last two years puts more pressure on Luhnow than anything. He needs a good lefty in the pen, not a lousy one.

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  32. The most pitches Alex Winkleman has thrown all season is 89. Through seven hitless innings tonight for Corpus Christi he has thrown 87 pitches. Do they leave him in? CC is up 4-0 in the bottom of the 7th.

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  33. Six weeks ago, if you had given me the choice of losing Correa for six weeks or Keuchel, LMJ, Morton aqnd Musgrove all go all the DL at the same time it would not have been more easy. There is no way you want to lose four starting pitchers the way we did. Now we are fixing to get them all back plus McHugh. There is no way I’m going to panic now.
    We are getting our pitchers back and we’re going on the road. We have a day off and our bullpen is rested.
    Let’s go.

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  35. JD Davis had two hits in his AAA debut Wednasday. Alas, Dayan Diaz and Jordan Jankowski went all Tony Sippish in the bottom of the 8th and Fresno lost.

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  36. Per :MLBTRADERUMORS.COM Talks are heating up with the A’s, and the Astros about Sonny Grey. ALSO…..the Astros remain “interested” in Verlander, and Wilson.
    I doubt the Verlander talks are serious, it would cost a LOT of prospects and a LOT of money for a “rental”. I doubt that will happen. Keuchel would be over the moon to have Sonny Grey in his rotation…….I would be too!

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    • Verlander is signed through 2019 with an option for 2020. Wilson cannot be a free agent until after 2018(?). They would not be rentals.

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  37. We are scheduled to face three straight righties in Baltimore. I suspect Mr. Moran will start at least a couple of those games.

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    • The O’s, play the arlington little league again tonight, so far they have beat them 3 games. Hopefully the O’s, will sweep the series!!

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    • Nary a mention of 29-year old Trevor Cahill. Not a single peep. Am I the only person who sees the OBVIOUS NASTY in this guy’s repertoire??

      Here’s the skinny from mlbtraderumors.com regarding Cahill : “The Mariners have reached out to… the Padres about their available starting pitchers, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. San Diego has three rental options to offer, highlighted by breakout righty Trevor Cahill but also including right-hander Jhoulys Chacin and southpaw Clayton Richard. (Each is signed to a one-year, $1.75MM deal.)

      It’s a $1mil rental people! And he would probably only cost one or two prospects — prospects that we’ll eventually lose to the Rule-5 draft anyway.

      If Luhnow sees what apparently nobody else sees (except the division rival Mariners), and pulls the trigger on Cahill, then make note that you heard it here first.

      Get Cahill! Trim down the 40-man roster by a prospect or two.

      If you’re not convinced, watch the emerging stud tonight against the Giants.

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  39. If you are a baseball fan, you get to love the wild card race. If you are an Astros, Dodgers, etc fan, you have to hate it. Mariners are 15 games out and are buying because they are 1.5 out of wild card. In the AL 5-8 teams are trying to buy from 2-3. A little better in the NL but who wants many players of Padres or Phillies.

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  40. I agree with Becky above. The Verlander rumors may just be due diligence. I wonder what the Astros would be willing to give up for Fulmer and Wilson? THAT would be a serious long term upgrade.

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    • The Tigers are trying to get rid of payroll and get younger.. In order to get rid of payroll and bigger contracts they are willing to pay some of Verlander’s salary, very similar to what the Yankees did with McCann.

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  41. Against lefties this year:

    – Correa – .390/.455/1.078 [5 HRS; 16 RBIs]
    – Altuve – .352/.424/1.004 [5 HRs; 11 RBIs]
    – Springer – .341/.430/1.111 [9 HRs; 16 RBIs]
    – Bregman – .329/.427/.951 [3 HRs; 4 RBIs]
    – Reddick – .280/.327/.647 [0 HRs; 9 RBIs]
    – Aoki – .270/.286/.583 [0 HRs; 5 RBIs]
    – Gonzales – .261/.346/.853 [4 HRs; 8 RBIs]
    – Marisnick – .258/.319/.759 [2 HRs; 6 RBIs]
    – McCann – .234/.319/.804 [5 HRs; 13 RBIs]
    – Gurriel – .232/.267/.646 [3 HRs; 15 RBIs]
    – Gattis – .213/.269/.695 [3 HRs; 14 RBIs]
    – Beltran – .195/.241/.540 [1 HR; 6 RBIs]

    Okay – NO MORE STARTS FOR BELTRAN AGAINST LEFTIES!!!!!
    Either Reddick, McCann, or Aoki would be better as our DH against lefties.
    And boy, do we miss Carlos Correa!!!!!

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  42. The arlington little league got swept in Baltimore, and sit 18 games back!! I can’t help myself, I absolutely LOVE that they are so many games behind us! Makes me smile😊!

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    • I am hoping they hang around the periphery of the wild card so they don’t sell. If they decide to trade Darvish it could really help reload their farm system.

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      • You’ll probably regret this if they trade Darvish and are back to being a contender in 2 years. As it stands now the Rangers are facing the harsh reality of a rebuild if they don’t sell this year.

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  44. Fresno just played a 4 game series in Las Vegas:
    Fresno won the first game 22-8.
    Fresno won the second game 19-12.
    Las Vegas won the third game 4-2.
    Fresno won the fourth game 18-5.

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    • The moral of the story is simple: Score at least 18 runs and you will probably win. Score 2 runs and you probably won’t.
      Deep Baseball Wisdom(DBW).

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  45. Got to listen to an interview MILB did with Forrest Whitley and he spoke of the two things he’s managed to do to advance himself in the minors so quickly. The first thing is pitching from the stretch all the time to limit the movement of his long frame and arms. The second thing he’s done is slow his change up down to where it’s 12-15 mph below his fastball.
    It’s rare that you get to hear a guy being able to talk about what he’s doing in the minors and this is one of those times. I found the link on Astros Countt website, where their morning hot links site is required reading for me.

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  46. The Orioles and the Yankees have been doing our work for us. How about we take charge and do a little work for ourselves the next 6 games!

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  47. I watched the end of the O’s, game last night to see Zack Britton to see if he would be a good fit for us……no thanks. Gotta tell you they are having a SWELTERING heat wave in the No East, and our pitchers are gonna be tested. Even Baltimore scratched on field exercises yesterday. Think Sonny has had his last start for the A’s??

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    • Probably more a matter of not getting reliable info from Luhnow…so all is speculation. I get the feeling that site manufactures posts with no info and no sources. I think there was a Todd Frazier to Red Sox rumor posted about the time the trade to NYY was announced.

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      • I have a commitment that will cause me to miss the game. But hopefully Dan, Tim, OP1, or some of our other fine bloggers will watch and keep us all advised!

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  50. DK’s second rehab start will be for the Tri City Valley Cats. That will be a treat for the locals – hopefully not so much for the opposing Lowell Spinners.

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    • Fascinating. And the game is actually at Lowell.
      Remember when I mentioned the CC players having Keuchel and McHugh in their dugout? How about being a player in short season rookie ball and having Keuchel come and start for your team and be in the dugout with a bunch of guys who never get to hang with Cy Young award winners.
      I think this is a great thing for minor league baseball.
      Keuchel played in 11 games for Tri-City in 2009.

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