My friend Greg Lucas may have said it best: “Fans in Houston are tired of “almost good” in all three major sports. Someone (Astros, Texans, Rockets) need to do something to make their franchise a true power!”
You go, Greg! Couldn’t have said it better!
First the Astros were no good! Now, for the past few years they’ve been almost good!
It’s time to roll up the sleeves, ante up, not settle for mediocrity and do what’s necessary to make the Astros’ organization a class, top-of-the-league, good organization! One that’s in the driver’s seat at this time of the year rather than chasing the drivers!
Frankly, it may hurt. Honestly, it may cause you to cringe. But, without a doubt, getting to the next level will come with risks and gambles. It could mean your favorite player(s) or prospects may be playing in another uniform next season.
This much is certain. With as much talent as this roster presently carries and as much talent that was not in Houston when the season began, this is not a pennant-winning roster. Changes are required to get to the next level!
We’ve all agreed in past editions that Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Dallas Keuchel are part of the foundation. George Springer, Evan Gattis and Yulieski Gurriel? Yes, probably so. But if Jeff Luhnow is going to upgrade significantly, it will not come without a cost. One of the above names — and/or probably others — could be on the chopping block soon.
The free agent pitching market will be thin this winter, possibly requiring a trade to upgrade. With several notable arbitration raises ahead, the payroll is likely headed above the $100 million mark sooner than later, so there’s that too.
We can discuss more as the season ends officially and other teams play on television while the Astros pack up and head home…again. But here are some key questions.
- Which of the so-called nucleus would you sacrifice for the right additions to the Astros’ 2017 roster?
- Are the Astros an overhaul away from a World Series? Or is it a matter of a tinker and a tweak?
- Finish this sentence: If the Astros make only one major change this winter, they must . . .
- Which player will be the big surprise of 2017? The big bomb?
- Is Gattis part of the nucleus? What other player will join the nucleus or foundation in 2017?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
181 responses to “Almost good is just not good enough for Houston”
I doubt Dallas Keuchel is part of the nucleus. I think LMJ takes his place.
I wouldn’t sacrifice part of the nucleus, because we’re not deep. We have holes to fill and we need to fill them this offseason when our nucleus is either already under contract or is making league minimum.
In my mind, Correa, Altuve, Bregman, Springer, Gurriel and Gattis are set for our lineup in 2017. We need three spots filled there. Two new guys and White/Tucker at DH.
Rotation should have Keuchel, LMJ. Musgrove, McHugh set and we need one more there. I like Devenski. Peacock might have secured a roster spot and long reliever may be it.
We need another late inning flamethrower.*
We need a good outfielder.*
We need a good first baseman.*
We need a reliable #4 starter*
If the Astros make only one change this season it must be to hire an exceptional batting coach.
The Astros are four good players away from a world series. ( the four asterisks). We don’t need an overhaul and we can’t get by with tweaking.
When Keuchel walks after 2017 we need to spend a fortune on an ace.
Gattis could be part of the core because he is 60% of what we need behind the plate. We need a LH hitting backup to make up the other 40% for 2017. I think Gattis likes it here.
I think Musgrove has the makings of a real good member of the nucleus.
Which player will be the big surprise of 2017? Gurriel.
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OP, unless I’m missing something, Keuchel is under team control through 2018.
And, umm, which Gurriel are you speaking of being a surprise? 🙂
A good OF, a good first baseman, a good #4 is a pretty tall order. Do you think Luhnow can pull that off without giving up nucleus or good prospects?
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You are right. We have Dallas for two more years.
I’m talking about Yuli, who has now seen what he will face and will get himself in better shape and be ready for the full season next year.
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Can Luhnow pull it off without giving up nucleus or the farm? I don’t think so. That’s why I don’t think Luhnow is the guy who can get us there.
I think Crane and Luhnow think Luhnow is the guy who can get us there.
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Dang it! That was 14 points. So ground me!
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It’s going to be difficult to upgrade this team without trades. The free agency market is thin, which means the majority will get severely over paid and I don’t see Crane dipping too far into that market. Thus, who are we willing to trade? McCullers, Bregman and Musgrove will be the players mist teams will want, but do we want to trade them? Reed probably has some trade value, but it’s not as high as it was at the beginning of 2016.
After seeing what Carlos Gomez is doing in Texas I’m starting to think it’s definitely time for a new hitting coach. We had him for over a year and he’s been in Texas for just a little over a month and Gomez has improved so much in that short time period. Why couldn’t Hudgens fix him?
If we were only going to make one change to the 25-man roster (I’m already conceding we need a new hitting coach) I want to add a big bat to the OF. It would lengthen our lineup and help in the area we need help the most, which is run production. I think Tyler White can be an everyday DH. He has hit at every level in the minor leagues and I feel he’ll eventually make the complete adjustment to the major leagues. He’s already shown signs of adjusting with his recent call up from the minor leagues.
I would like to add another power arm to the bullpen, but don’t think it’s a necessity. I still think Hoyt will be very solid and replace Neshek just fine. We need Sipp to return to the pitcher he was in 2014 and 2015 because he is still owed $12M over the next 2 years so he will be in the bullpen to start 2017. I’m still unsure whether I want to move Devo to the starting rotation or keep him in the bullpen. He was so valuable this year in the pen and we need that one arm that can pitch multiple innings at a time and shut down the opponent while doing so.
The rotation hinges on the health of McCullers and Keuchel. If the Astros are comfortable that they can remain in the rotation the entire season then I’m not overly concerned with the starting 5. However, if they gave concerns about their health then a trade for a TORP is probably a necessity. The problem there is that any trade for a guy like Archer or Sale is going to really hurt on the players traded away. Bregman and/or Springer will have to be included in that type trade.
The Astros will have a ton of payroll flexibility this offseason, but I don’t want to use it all up on such a weak free agency class. I would prefer to save some for next offseason when some TORPs will be available. Needless to say this will be an interesting offseason. We will get a feeling how much resources Crane wants to give Luhnow to improve this team.
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I’m glad you wrote this one Chip, my writing Muse is running on life support – kind of like the Astros chances at the playoffs – “If the Astros win 3 and the Orioles win 4 and the Tigers lose 3 and the M’s lose 2 we can have a 4 way caged death match to see who gets to go on the road for the playoff play-in game….”
You ask simple but very tough questions my friend:
– After what I’ve seen I would add Devenski to the core. If Musgrove picks up where he left off he might worm his way in. To your question, Yuli is expendable – but not tradeable. Springer is the one member of the core I might consider trading, but I think he is a Hunter Pence type – great in the clubhouse, and he may improve once his body gets attuned to playing more than 90 games in a year. I don’t want to trade Keuchel when he is at the bottom of his value – hurt and coming off a bad year.
– I think the Astros are between a tweak and an overhaul in need. They need to chase a couple spots in FA – big armed reliever and OF?? I think I would look at trading for a starting pitcher at the deadline when you know if you need one.
– If the Astros make one big change this winter they must….add a bat at 1B or OF.
– I think Gattis is part of the core. He does not connect as often as I would like but as a Catcher – he has value with his 30+ HRs.
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Sorry – should have said the Orioles lose 4…not win 4
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I would gamble, cry, and trade for a TOR pitcher. Springer is the guy that I would be most willing to include from the ML roster. I would then pony up the $ for a free agent outfielder or two to replace the production lost from Springer. Cespedes and Reddick come to mind. I would also trade for or sign a wizened veteran that could provide real leadership. Somebody who does for us what Beltre does for that team in the north. Honestly, I think that is one of the biggest holes on the team because the rocket scientists haven’t figured out how to quantify that. I would hold my breath and hope somebody internal steps up to claim the 1B job. I think we are one good hitting coach away from making that happen. I did not trust the starting rotation last off-season, and have even less faith now. we have some guys that are probably 1-2 years away from making an impact if they can transition to MLB. I would at least ask the question whether Strom is the right pitching coach for hard throwing guys like Feliz, Giles, Martes, etc. I have my doubts – I think his specialty is the soft tossing junkballers and he is very good at getting the most he can from those kind of guys. It will be expensive, it will be painful, but it’s not my money. And the Astros did not improve this year which to me is a failure of leadership to identify and successfully address weaknesses.
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Nance, if Springer was available as a free agent right now, he’d be signing a long term deal for 25 plus million a year to play center for one of the big money clubs. You will spend far more money trying to replace Springer than you’d get back in trade value. It scares me to think that Luhnow might use him in another of his deals.
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As much as it pains me to say this, because I have been a Strom fan, I think you may be right with your assessment of Strom. I think he may be a pitching guru, but not a pitching coach. Sometimes it takes a guy who is one third Guru, one third Psychologist, and one third salesman to be the right pitching coach. And being younger might not hurt either.
But then again, Musgrove and Devenski seem to have made a decent transition and they have fastballs that approach the mid nineties.
I’m real disappointed that Feliz hasn’t been better utilized and developed. But is that Strom’s fault, Feliz’s fault or somebody else’s fault. You can lead a horse to water, but….
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Mediocrity? Did that actually come from your pen, Chip? Let me point out to you, once again, that Crane is a greed meister, and for him to open up his wallet commisurate for a franchise in the 4th largest market isn’t going to happen. A pipe-dream! Step away from the pipe, sir, and face the reality.
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I’m not sure somebody who shows up once in a great while, says the same old crap, and then crawls back under a rock, deserves to be told he nailed it.
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Well Bopert I think you nailed it. It seems that crane and uncle jeff like patting themselves on the back for being mediocre, operating like Tampa Bay in the 4th largest market. Houston deserves better and I haven’t lived there for 7 years
I think we are between a rock and hard place, I like keeping Springer, tuve, CC, Bregman, Gattis, and Gurriel who is 32 making as much money as Altuve, that is bizarre to me. Can they keep them and improve??? I guess a talented Gm will figure that out.
We all know the hitting coach needs to GO!
You all are way more optimistic on the pitching than I am
# 1 we don’t have him
# 2 LMJ if healthy
I don’t see Any one else right now being much more than a .500 guy
so #3 DK
#4 CM
Have high hopes for Musgrove and what do they do with Devo, After that I see a lot of unproven AAA guys. That’s not going to get us 93 wins
If the Free agent market is slim, then I guess 2017 could be another almost year for us all. Sure wish we have kept that JD Martinez guy we gave up for nothing in LF
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Houston is not the 4th largest market. It’s the 4th largest city, but far from the 4th largest market. This isn’t semantics, but a very relevant fact.
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TY that helps explain to me the acceptance of baseball mediocrity by the FO much better.
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The Astros finished with the 21st highest payroll in baseball and will finish with a better record than many that spent more. Kudos to our front office in maximizing so much out of so little. Yes, we are lucky to have the FO that we do and I’m glad you see that.
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21st in payroll. Think about that for a moment, especially when they were slated to make a run. And I must admit that I was very surprised that the greed meister bucked up for Gurriel (man that dude has a sweet swing). Regardless, it’s always been my stance that greed will prevent the proper outlay of payroll funds to make this team a true WS contender. And this season was a perfect example, Gurriel signing notwithstanding.
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Actually since the NY LA and CHI markets are split across two teams, to say that Houston has less than the 4th highest TAM is a massive understatement. Now could it be that the severely depleted fanbase might have something to do with the poor “market potential?”
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Bopert,
All those cities have 2 teams and all of them are a larger market than Houston. That’s 6 teams right there. Boston, Philadelphia and Dallas (Texas) are bigger TV markets along with Atlanta, SF and DC. You can Google/Bing it if you want.
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I just don’t get the idea that Springer might be a guy we’d be willing to part with. 29 homers, 82 RBI’s hitting lead off and after our 7,8,9 guys who are rarely on base along with 116 runs and a .361 OBP. That’s good for a 5.16 OWAR. Those numbers don’t grow on trees. 24th in all of MLB. Who do you replace those numbers with? Put him in the middle of a good line up and his numbers soar further.
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I am with you one hundred percent. When you have just one reliable outfielder, how will you improve by trading him.
Put Springer in Center Field where he belongs and fill in your corner outfield positions. Putting Springer in RF is just plain stupid baseball and Luhnow is stupid when it comes to this point.
Fowler, Marisnick, Gomez, Hernandez, Deshields. How many center fielders do we have to go through before Luhnow wakes up and realizes what he has done?
Our CFer of the future goes all the way through the minors, and is the MILB Player of the Year, and when he gets to the majors, we make him play RF because we supposedly have a CFer in Fowler, whom we trade for a third baseman and then we have no center fielder but won’t move our center fielder of the future to center field.
Stupid!
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Yep, like OP, I’m 100% in agreement with you on Springer. Especially considering his salary it’s nearly impossible to replace his offense and it’s definitely impossible to replace his defense. I’m not trading George.
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I agree with you that Springer is valuable and it would be painful to lose him. But I really want a TOR pitcher and that will cost somebody from the core. Looking at the FA market, it appears that there is some FA outfield production available that might help replace some of that loss. I don’t see any replacements for the infield core. The IF core is younger and less expensive since Altuve is locked up on a team friendly deal. So that is how I arrived at Springer as my sacrifice for a pitcher. Would you rather it be Altuve, Correa, or Bregman? Not me.
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Do you want to count on Keuchel being able to take us to the promised land next year? Shoulder injuries are scary enough without the looming threat of shrinking the strike zone. Will LMJ be able to avoid the dreaded TJ surgery? Impossible to predict, but there is a red flag. Is it realistic to put WS hopes in the hands of Musgrove and Devenski with less than a full season of experience? Brad Peacock for ACE anybody? Now we are down to prospects.
How many teams have won a WS on hitting alone? Are you satisfied just to make the playoffs or do you want it all? I have been living on promises of the stellar farm system the last couple of years and I am tired of waiting. Minor league championships just don’t cut it for me. Minor league MVPs/Pitcher of the year? Can you say Matt Duffy or Brady Rogers? Duffy is gone. What is Rogers’ ceiling? Who in our minor leagues are left that can be considered the sure thing like Correa and Bregman were?
So, I see way more questions than answers unless our development process does a turnabout and achieves overnight success. So, all I know to do is roll the dice and try to trade talent for pitching. But, The worst part is that I do not trust JL to trade for the right guy.
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Absolutely, I want to give Joe Musgrove and Chris Devenski every chance to develop into World Series starters! The Astros had one starting pitcher and one reliever that, when they came into the game, I had confidence they wouldn’t blow up in the middle of a pennant race. Those two guys.
With Devenski commanding a slider to go with a deceptive fastball and a tremendous change up, and Musgrove having command of four pitches, I do want to see them start next year. When prospects show you they are major league pitchers, it’s time to stop treating them like prospects and start treating them like the pitchers they have become.
When two rookies go out there and show you they have what it takes, even though they don’t have much experience, you give them the ball every fifth day next year because they are going to get better the more they pitch.
After what they have shown, it would be a slap to their faces to not put them in the rotation next year.
Actually, it would be stupid.
I would not consider Keuchel an ace, after this year. We really don’t have an ace, based on this year. But LMJ will have to suffice as my #1, Keuchel my #2, Musgrove my #3, Devenski my #4 and McHugh my #5.
That gives us one soft tossing lefty and one soft tossing righty and that will have to do until the off season when we can go after an ace in free agency. Until we added Musgrove, we had all soft tossers in our rotation because LMJ never really got settled in.
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I agree that we give Musgrove and Devenski the ball and the chance to develop in to WS starters. But I also don’t want to put the expectations on them to be “The guys” for 2017. In 2018, they just might be there.
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The Astros have to put the expectations of them being “The guys” for 2017. That is why they are in the baseball business. These two guys have shown the stuff and one will be 24 and the other will be 26.
This is why you draft. This is why you trade for young prospects. When you finally hit the lottery in the baseball world, you don’t put the ticket in your drawer.
The Astros had ten young stud pitching prospects in their system in the last few years. They sifted Cosart, Tropeano, Folty, Appel, Velasquez, Ober, Feliz, Paulino,
and others through their system and these are the two guys who have gotten to the point where they can be counted on. It doesn’t matter where or how you got them. what matters is that these are the two guys who are the tickets that have turned out to be the winners.
They can pitch, they are in their inexpensive years, they have low mileage. Now is the time to utilize all the efforts you have gone through to find them and utilize their talents.
Hopefully, one of Feliz, Paulino and Martes can join them in their success. And hopefully, LMJ is healthy and is ready to join the rotation permanently and be a rock.
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That rotation definitely works, assuming no health issues. They still have Feliz, Rodgers, Peacock and Martes as options. If they’re going to trade for a pitcher I would prefer a MORP because the cost will be less.
I understand what Nance is saying. All of us would love to have Sale or Archer on this team, but the cost is too high. Springer, Bregman and Correa should keep getting better and Altuve is just hitting his prime years. Keep the core together and add missing pieces around them via trade or free agency. The holes on this team are not as big as some make it out to be. Without significant injuries to key players for long stretches this team would’ve been close to 90 wins. Last year the only significant injury was Springer and, maybe, Lowrie. They still won 86 games. The rotation was relatively injury free last year. That was not the case this year.
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Tim, do you think Keuchel has been hurting all year? We never have been told about his injury. If he was feeling something in his shoulder from the get go, that would really help ease the pain of a bad year from him. Remember how we babied him in spring training? I wonder if he was hurting back then.
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I do, OP. His drop in velocity seems to indicate an underlying injury that was never revealed.
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1. Keuchel would lead my list, but I agree with what DanP said above.
2. Allow me to put on my Tim-colored glasses and suggest tinker and tweak.
3. Fix their approach to hitting
4. Preston Tucker will be the big surprise. Gattis is likely to be the big bomb.
5. I’m hesitant to include Gattis. He gets the nod due to playing a premium position. My problem is he’s the exact guy the Braves had and were happy to trade us. At the time one of my friends told me – you’re going to love Gattis. He gets hot and will completely carry the team for awhile. Then he’ll get cold and you’ll wonder what in the world happened to him. But he’ll get hot again later…
John Smoltz made a great point a couple nights ago. Looking at the Astros, he said they were one of many teams that were going to have really long, disappointing offseasons. Basically, they have the entire offseason to think about how close they were and what went wrong.
Ok, why am I optimistic? We got 30+ starts from Fister, Fiers, and McHugh in 2016. We got 26 starts from Keuchel. The other starts came from LMJ (14), Musgrove (10), Devenski (5), Peacock (4), and Paulino (1). Let’s slide those numbers around a bit and ask what if…
LMJ – 30
Musgrove – 30
Keuchel – 30
McHugh – 30?
Fiers / Devenski / Peacock / Martes / Paulino / Feliz – 42
The bullpen loses Neshek, but hopefully replaces him with someone that can get lefties out. I think they lose Gregerson as well if Luhnow can find a trade partner. If Giles implodes or brings back his Lidge-like control I might try Devenski to close games. I doubt he’s less effective than Will Harris was.
We are losing Colby Rasmus. Someone posted the numbers the other day – it would be hard not to replace his offensive contributions with a rotation of Tucker / Kemp / Teoscar / Bregman / anyone in LF.
I’m saving my why am I pessimistic stuff for a later post as we go through the roller coaster of the offseason.
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Those are cool glasses, Devin, but I want them back.
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Why can’t Gattis be the Braves mistake? Gattis was a baseball newbie with the Braves at a late age. We did not get enough out of him in 2015, but even after core surgery, rehab, a stint in the minors and readapting to the catcher position, he produced a lot of WAR for a backup catcher/DH.
He has 2.5 accumulated WAR and Castro has 1.1 as the primary catcher.
He may not be Buster Posey, but with similar stats next year, he is just liable to be an all-star catcher. What I love about Gattis is his cool head. When he walks out to the mound, I think our pitchers will pay close attention to what he has to say. And umpires will prefer him, a guy who walks back to the dugout like a grownup when he strikes out, to a catcher who constantly takes call strike three and then bitches like a fifteen year old while walking back to the dugout with his aluminum bat in his hand, as our other catcher does.
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Agreed totally, esp. the comment about Castro.
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EXACTLY!!
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Picking Gattis to bomb is a bit harsh. Unless injured, I doubt he becomes Chris Carter. However…
Against RHP, Gattis has slashed .226 / .304 / .486.
At home, he has slashed .234 / .296 / .515 with 19 HR and 40 RBI.
On the road, he slashed .265 / .340 / .502 with 13 HR and 30 RBI.
-In September, he has slashed .256 / .333 / .616 with 10 HR and 14 RBI.
-Of his 32 HR, 22 have come with the bases empty.
-Of his 32 HR, 20 have come against what baseball reference calls finesse pitchers (bottom third of league in strikeouts + walks).
-He has 127 Ks in only 494PA.
-He has 0 triples this year!
It may seem like I’m cherry picking some bad stats, but the one I want to point out is his September performance. He’s had a huge month. It’s like Rasmus from 2015! Of the ten HR, 9 have been solo shots and 1 came with one man on.
I will agree with you and Tim that the Braves made a mistake and did not get enough in the trade for Gattis.
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Devin, I noticed Gattis’s propensity to hit RH finesse pitchers before 2015 season started, because we were facing Kluber on opening day and I wanted to try and put a lineup together for that game. He has rougher times against power pitchers and always has. I mentioned it on this blog during spring training 2015.
So next year, bat him against all lefties, all finesse righties, some average righties and let the other catcher hit against RH power pitchers.
This is why I have been touting a LH hitting backup catcher. Heineman is one of those and he hits righties pretty well from the left side and doesn’t do well against lefties hitting right handed, since he is a switch hitter. Heineman has always hit better hitting from the left side.
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Gattis is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. He could be THE best if he would straighten his back some, lean into the pitch and not lean over the plate, and drive through the ball. Right now he lives off being country strong but his fly ball rate is a bit high and his line drive rate a little low. He pushes that up to 20% on his line drives, brings down the FB% 10 or so, he will help his BABIP out and become a .265+ hitter. Even improving his GB% will catch him so seeing eye grounders that turn into hits.
His patience is much better. He has gone from being one of the worst players in baseball at swinging outside the zone to only bad, cutting 8% from his younger years. His walks are up, but so are his strikeouts.
I just feel like the guy is on the cusp of having an incredible season, IF he can stay healthy while catching. I’m sure he hits better while catching because he feels like he is more a part of the game and his confidence is up.
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The primary the Braves traded Gattis was because they were in full rebuild mode. It is akin to the Astros trading Hunter Pence. They had no need for a slugging catcher and needed to restock their farm system. Besides, outside of catcher, there is no other way to get him in the lineup in the N.L. I don’t think the Braves had any issues with Gattis other than they were rebuilding.
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30 starts are nice, but 200 innings are far more important.
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Chip, I agree with your friend Greg, but I’ve heard it for years here and there. A co-worker once said, “Houston sports teams,” and looked off in the distance. I don’t want to trade any of the core guys. They are all we’ve got to help us recognize the team as ours. Where or how can we purchase lights-out pitching? I don’t think we’re World Series bound anytime soon. Other thing that bothers me is the fan base, present company excepted. Texans fans seem never to give up, no matter the ringer they’ve been put through. A few years back, there was a threat to trundle the Astros off to another city. I keep wondering if it’s still a possibility.
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* Are the Astros an overhaul away from a World Series? Or is it a matter of a tinker and a tweak? *
The Astros have a long way to go to be WS material. The biggest hindrance to both the playoffs in general and to the Fall Classic in particular is starting pitching and a dependable closer. To compete for a division title we would need a ‘Big Three’ – comparable to what we had in the days of Clemens, Petit, and Oswalt. This year we did not even have a ‘Big One’. Heck, we didn’t have a single starter with an ERA under 4.00. We need an ace with an ERA under 2.50 [in 2005, Clemens’ was 1.87, with a WHIP of 1.005]. Then we need a #2 with an ERA under 3.00 [in 2005, Petit’s was 2.39, with a WHIP of 1.030]. And we need a #3 starter with an ERA under 3.25 [in 2005 Oswalt’s was 2.94, with a WHIP of 1.204]. My ‘needed’ numbers are adjusted for the AL, as we were in the NL in 2005. We are a LONG WAY from what we need in the way of starting pitching – and a new left fielder won’t help. McCullers might fill one of those positions. Musgrove and Devenski, I suppose, have a shot. Feliz, Paulino, or Martes? Not in a million years! And Based upon what they showed us this year, Keuchel, McHugh, and Fiers would both have to either a develop a new out pitch over the winter or get 3-5 mph more in velocity to ever see the underside of 4.00 again. Oh, did I mention a closer? In 2006 Lidge had an ERA of 2.29, a WHIP of 1.146, 42 saves, 103 SOs, and allowed only 5 HR and 8 WPs in 70.2 innings. That’s what a real closer looks like [not Giles with his 4.18 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 14 saves, 101 SOs, while allowing 8 HR and 14 WPs in 64.2 innings.
We also have offensive deficiencies, but with Bregman, Gurriel, White and a healthy PTuck, on board, and possibly Hernandez, D. Fisher or R. Laureano stepping up, our biggest problems on offense are not related to personnel, but to offensive approach and philosophy.
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For instance, the Rangers have 3 starters with ERAs under 4.00 and WHIPs under 1.25. The Indians have 3 starters with ERAs under 4.00 and 2 of those have WHIPs under 1.25. The Red Sox have starters under 4.00 in ERA [the 3rd is David Price, at 4.04] and three with WHIPs under 1.25. That is just the starting pitching threshold it takes for a team to win a division these days.
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That should say the Red Sox have TWO starters under 4.00 in ERA.
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Giles’s ERA may have been 4.18, but much of that was due to a 9.00 April. He’s pitched much better since June, save 2 bad games this month. Everything since then has been more inline with his career numbers, 101 Ks in 64.2 innings is nothing to sneeze at, either.
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Giles was indeed much better after June. Of course, if he had been as bad or worse he would have to have been released. And no doubt his strikeouts were impressive. Indeed, his SO per IP is actually a little better than Lidge’s. But compared to Lidge’s numbers across the board in 2005 [our only WS year], Ken is not even in the same ballpark. Even when he is striking out people, he tends to walk one or two each [or every other] outing, then promptly advance them into scoring position with Wild Pitches. And he is so predictable and readable [pitch tipping?] that he gives up monster home runs regularly to the better hitters he faces – the guys he has to retire consistently to do the job required of a closer on a WS quality team. I am hopeful that Giles can get improve his game and become that kind of closer. But he sure is not there yet.
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Since May 9th Giles put up a 3.03 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 14.43 K/9 and 14 saves. The Astros have their dependable closer. Health is the biggest issue with their rotation. Mr. Bill indicates the 2005 Astros had their Big 3 and alluded to the Astros of 2017 needing the same. That isn’t necessarily a requirement. The 2005 Astros had a weak offense so the Big 3 was necessary to make the World Series. The 2017 Astros offense is still iffy, but it should be better than the 2005 Astros. They need to upgrade the offense some and pray for health in the rotation and they should be fine. The bullpen is strong, but you can never have too strong of a bullpen.
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Last time I looked the 2016 Astros were not exactly an offensive powerhouse. They are 13th out of 15 AL teams in BA, 10th in total bases, and 8th [1 rung below league average] in OBP, OPS, HRs, and runs scored. We are, however, 2nd in one offensive category – i.e. strikeouts. I don’t think the quality of our offense anywhere near good enough to negate the need for three starters with WHIPs under 1.25 and ERAs under 4.00.
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That is why I want to concentrate on upgrading the offense. Let’s not forget they didn’t have Gurriel and Bregman for most of 2016 and Rasmus was a shell of 2015 Rasmus due to inner ear issues. Valbuena missed the last 2 months of the season, which also brought down the numbers. If they add someone like Cespedes and Chapman then they are loaded to bear. Even going after someone like Dexter Fowler would improve the offense. This is somewhere between tweaking and overhauling. They don’t need to overhaul the team, but a few tweaks probably won’t do it either.
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I would like to give Giles another year to grow as a pitcher. Next year will be his 26 year old season and that was the same age Lidge burst into prominence. Lidge’s year 26 was in 2004 and it was his third year with the Astros.
I believe Giles came to his year 25 season with a lot of pressure on him and he wasn’t perfect, but he was pretty good. I think he has room to get better, especially his slider. I think he can learn to get more movement on that pitch and command it better. When he gets it over the plate it doesn’t have as much movement and when it moves it’s usually too low. His slider can get a lot better. If it does, he will be a real good closer.
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If they remain healthy, and I understand there are no guarantees, but OP’s suggested rotation above should have 3-4 with ERAs below 4.00. McHugh’s days of having an ERA below 4.00 are probably over, but he’s still a serviceable #5. I want to add Aroldis Chapman, but not because I don’t trust Giles. I want to add him to make our bullpen akin to the 2015 Royals bullpen. The Royals had 2 starters with ERAs below 4.00 in 2015 and one of them, Chris Young, had a FIP above 4.00. However, they had a bullpen that would guarantee the game was over with a lead after 6 and although the offense wasn’t spectacular, they didn’t strike out much and they played exceptional defense. We know the Astros are going to strike out, but they will play exceptional defense and, with Chapman, they will have a bullpen that would virtually guarantee the game was over after 6. Also, I think OP’s rotation is better than the 2015 Royals rotation. Again, this team is not far off from being a legitimate contender, but they do need to add a few more pieces.
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A closer is only needed, if you have a lead. And the way these guys hit, a guy like Chapman will be sitting in the bullpen sipping on apple juice…..and sucking down 💲MILLIONS.
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They had 20 blown saves this year. Just take reduce that to around 14 and, well, you can do the math and see where the 2016 Astros would be sitting right now.
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We’re middle of the pack in blown saves. The best team in the league so far is Cleveland at 11. The worst is SF at 30.
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That’s my point, Devin, in wanting to add Chapman. Don’t you think we’ll be better than middle of the pack with Chapman as the closer and everyone else moving back a spot in the bullpen?
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Answer to one of your questions Chip, is if they only make *one *major change this off season it’s for a TORP!! And it’s gonna take a LOT of top prospects to accomplish that. Problem is, there aren’t enough prospects left after you trade for “that guy”, to fill very many other holes. That’s why I doubt this team is going to make it to the show next year, or even 3-5 years down the road. Now…..if your talking spending Jim Cranes money, the sky’s the limit! So yeah, I have no problem letting Crane open up his wallett, but I DO have a problem trading a guy like Springer, who just finished his FIRST year in the bigs healthy.
Who is my surprise next year: Gurriel
My bomb? Whoever they put at first base, other than Tyler White.
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Heard gomez say last week, that the hitting coach the other team in texas has, is responsible for his getting his bat going again. Maybe it really IS our hitting coach that was his problem, or maybe it was Luhnow watching his every move. Hmmmm
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The entire coaching staff needs to be replaced and I’m on the fence about Hinch. Hinch or whoever is making the calls gets stuck on a lineup/rotation and won’t deviate regardless. Case in point Fister. He should have been replaced weeks ago. Another case was leaving Gomez out there too long. Not only was he not hitting but repeatedly making errors.
I’d rather not trade for a pitcher, although, that’s what we need the most, but do we trust Luhnow to make that trade? We could lose a ton of talent and end up with another dud. Spend some $s on a bat or two and go with OPs rotation.
Maybe a good hitting coach could cut down some of the strikeouts.
I think next years biggest surprise will be Gurriel. Though I’m not sure if it will be a good or bad surprise.
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I want to recognize the player I think improved the most from 2015 to 2016 and that would be Evan Gattis. His wRC+ increased from 102 to 118, his WAR from 0.2 to 2.5, his ISO from .217 to .260 and his BB% from 5.0 to 8.7%. It is his BB% that I really like. Gattis, as we all know, is a very powerful man. By laying off more pitches out of the zone he is walking more and hitting for more power. Last year he had 566 ABs and, so far, this year he has 442. So, with over 100 less ABs he will have more HRs than last year. Viva El Oso Blanco!
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The Tigers/Indians game was postponed today and would be made up, if needed, on Monday. Imagine a scenario where the Tigers are 1/2 game behind Baltimore at the end of play Sunday. They would then have to play a makeup game on Monday against the Indians, which I imagine would have no desire to use any starting pitcher they will need for the division series. Thus, if the Tigers win that game, which is probable, they will then have to play another ‘play in’ game against the Orioles just to see who wins the last WC spot. If the Tigers win that game they will then have to play the WC game. Things could get crazy after Sunday.
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2016 Wild Pitch leaders:
1. Fiers – 17
3. Giles – 13
7. Fister – 10
Wow.
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Here’s something to consider…how many of those were with Castro catching, and how many were from Gattis? Although passed balls are usually the metric one looks at, good catchers can prevent WP in many cases (unless it’s all over the place)
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With our pitching staff it didn’t matter who was catching. If you have to throw your curve in the dirt to try to fool batters, then your stuff sucks and any catcher will have wild pitches bounce away if they are bombarded with them.
Our staff throws too many balls in the dirt. Gregerson is terrible about doing it, too.
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So after reading all these, besides less wild pitches, we need. 1. more offense as we are ranked 13 out of15th this year 2. A total upgrade of the outfield except Springer. 3. Either 1 or a platoon for respectability at 1B. 4 A blow them away closer , it’s not Giles. 5. A huge upgrade at SP we are hopping LMJ and Kuechel are healthy, and some kids step up. 6 A new hitting coach and base running instructor..
And then more SP that can push the radar gun past 88. Other than that we ready to win the west.
Awesome
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Oh and I forgot no one to trade or we want to trade YIKES
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Except me. I’m playing a different tune.
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1. Yes, some more offense, but a full season of Yuli and Bregman will improve the offense. 2. Bregman moving to LF may solve one of the issues 3. Depending on where Bregman goes they may use Yuli at 1B. 4. We have our close and we’re good there 5. A huge upgrade is not needed, especially if Keuchel and LMJ are healthy. See above on OP’s starting rotation recommendation as it is very good. 6. Yes on a new hitting coach. Musgrove, Devo and LMJ solve your radar gun concerns.
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The problem with trading for a TOR is that at this point the players we have who have the most trade value [a factor of the high-end potential to excel, some history of it, a lot of team control, and a very, very cheap salary situation] are Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers, Jr., Chris Devenski, Garrett Stubbs, and Kyle Tucker. After that, we have nothing in house that is likely to net anything worth having in the way of starting pitching. Martes or Paulino would be a ‘bonus’ which would be asked for in addition to two of those ‘big six’. Beyond that, we have not induce someone to part with a Chris Sale quality starting pitcher. We ain’t get a TOR for the entire Fresno, Quad Cities, or Lancaster lineups, folks.
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You don’t think Springer would be a corner piece Mr. Bill?
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Yes. And I personally would consider it. But I have suggested it before on this blog, and have discovered that George Springer is one player that if traded would cause a violent revolution in Harris County, TX. So I don’t mention it anymore. And it is true that outfield is our weakest area now [except catching], so I can’t see us trading George and Bregman or George and Jose away, even for a package including Sale, Kershaw and Bumgarner
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Baltimore beat Toronto tonight and that officially eliminates the Astros from the playoffs.
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I’m relieved to hear that. At least they know their season is over, now they can play for fun for the weekend in Los Angeles. I know they are disappointed…😢😢😢
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Ok good…now these last few games let’s play people like Moran, Stassi, Reed, White , ect.
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Tim I know you don’t want to hear it, but I don’t trust Luhnow to make a trade (or trade-s) any further than I can spit, and that ain’t very far. We just don’t have the pieces to give up for a guy like a Chris Sale ect…these are the guys on MY no trade list:
Bregman
Springer
Altuve
Correa
Gurriel
McCullers
Musgrove
Devenski
Giles
Ok boys and girls whose on yours?
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Same as mine, actually
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I would have to throw Gattis in there we have no catching in our system right now.
You are right on trades I rate the Conger- and Gomez trades a F and Giles a D+. so far on this one
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I give an ‘F’ on Conger, a D+ on Gomez and a B- on Giles.
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I don’t want to trade for Sale and Archer because the cost will be too high. I’m not concerned about Luhnow making a trade. He’s won some and lost some, just like every GM going. I just don’t want to trade from the core of Altuve, Springer, Bregman and Correa. I don’t think we’re getting Sale or Archer unless one of them is the centerpiece of the trade.
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Same. I would add Feliz
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Don’t trade Martes. Put him on the “don’t trade” list. Why? Well, besides the fact he is our #1 prospect and you shouldn’t trade your #1 prospect, there is the fact that Luhnow said that everyone wanted Martes and Bregman. If everybody wanted Martes, that tells me all I needed to know about Martes.
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Ok…..I’ll add him to my list, but as you can see after Martes, there really isn’t much left in the cupboard. After Bregman came up, and all talk surrounding him was so positive, that’s all that was talked about.
OP……the thought of Luhnow making trades over the winter makes me bite my fake fingernails! He’s batting a big fat ZERO so far on trades.
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Well, Becky, we got Martes in an incredible trade We got Marisnick, Moran and Cameron out of that one, too. Miami got zilch out of Cosart, Wates and Kike. Gattis’s 2.5 WAR puts us way ahead in his trade and we got Hoyt in that one, too. The Devenski trade could turn out terrific, especially if Chris ends up in our rotation. His WAR this year alone is a good trade for Myers.
Paulino for Veras, I’ll take that.
Bostik for Corporan could turn out.
He’s made some bad ones, but he’s made some good ones, too.
Giles has a lot of years left to make his trade look good.
The Gomez trade was a bad one, but I put that one on Gomez’s shoulders. What a putz!
Luhnow’s trades haven’t been a zero. Sometimes it just feels that way but he has made some good trades, too. The first Lowrie trade wasn’t bad. We still have Peacock and Stassi and got a bunch of HRs out of Carter. Really, what has Lowrie done for Oakland? Fernando Rodriguez? Meh. Oakland is bad!
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I don’t trust Luhnow to make any trades. He’s won a few and lost more than a few and he gives more than he gets.
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I don’t think the other GMs will offer him something fair. I think he has to be really active in talks and walk away without consideration from silly offers this Dec or it won’t get better.
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He’s actually won more than he’s lost, but everyone just remembers the trades he’s lost.
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I think the TBA pitcher for Sunday should be Brady Rodgers. The kid would be over the MOON if Hinch let him start a MLB game! I agree with Billy…..let the kids ALL play the last game of the year! You brought them up for a reason……let ’em play.
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…and there is no impact on remaining races so may as well see everyone play.
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Exactly Devin!!
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Victoria would be very happy.
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Virginia.
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The guy who wrote this article is one of the main talent evaluators at MLB.com. He is not an Astros mouthpiece. http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/203967456/astros-instructs-features-outfield-depth/. However, the Astros instructor he quotes probably is. Still, it’s a reminder of the talent the Astro have in the lower minors that would be the next wave.
If the Astros had a ton of talent left in AA or AAA it would be wasted because of the youth of our major league team. But a dozen good players in the lower minors now will come in handy in 2019 and 2020.
In all honesty, three years ago I saw Feliz, Velasquez and Folty as the future backbone of the Astros pitching staff. I never thought Musgrove and Devenski might end up being there. That is why we need to look at EVERY young prospect we have with a scrutiny. You never know where the next Wagner or Oswalt will come from.
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Ty great read OP, but I have hard time getting excited about 2019-20. At 61 and Astro fan since 78. I’m ready to win now, what are we going to do to win the west in 2017. It’s fun to read what might be , how about we read Astro’s, an elite team for 2017.
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I think what OP is saying, and I agree, is that our core is still very young so 2019-2020 is when we may need to start replacing the core. Of course, there is no guarantees on the prospects, but the fact the scouts view them as high level talent is good news. Luhnow’s vision when he got hired was to keep the talent flowing through the farm system on a regular basis so we don’t go through what we did from 2009-2014. He’s modeling it after the Cardinals, who have been very consistent in winning each year for over a decade.
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Tim I got a Masters at ASU ( a long time ago I know), but please, I get what OP is saying, just like I get all your 1000 posts. I just don’t care that much about prospect anymore, 54 years one trip to the WS. Is it to much to ask to be relevant in more that how are farm system is rated , heck we trade them all away anyway.
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Well, Kevin, if we traded them all away then why do the experts have our system rated so high? I get that your cynical and jaded toward the Astros, but there are no guarantees in life. Only 1 team gets to hold that shiny trophy at the end of the year, but we are in a much better position to hold that trophy than we were 10 years ago. If you don’t care about prospects then you may prefer we go back to 2007 as that is exactly the feelings of Drayton McLane and why the Astros had to go through such a miserable, but quick, rebuild starting in 2012. I much prefer keeping the farm system stocked than just spending foolishly on free agents and completely disregarding or refusing to sign prospects, which is what Uncle D did toward the end of his ownership.
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I’m with Kevin! I want at least a division title in 2017! Weren’t we projected to be WS champions in 2017 because of that great farm system?
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Tim, in 2006 we finished 82-80 and were 2nd in the NL Central. Our attendance surpassed 3 million fans (2.3M in 2016). Lance Berkman was great. No one else on offense was better than good. Our pitching staff had Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte, Wandy and Brad Lidge.
Back to that record – we finished 1.5 games behind St. Louis (83-78). Do you recall who won the world series that way? It’s ok…I’ll save you time. The Cardinals beat Detroit.
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Devin,
Let me help you out. 10 years ago the 2006 season ended and the Astros MISSED the playoffs. The farm system was depleted and Pettitte and Clemens were FREE AGENTS. The team, as you mentioned, finished with 82 wins, which is less than this year, with no future in sight. Do you care to revise your assessment of how we look today compared to 10 years ago? Let me save you the time…we were in worse shape than we are now.
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Tim, you brought up 10 years ago…don’t change it to 9. 2017 looks light years better than 2007 on paper…but allow me to play devil’s advocate…
Since you brought it up, in 2007 we finished 73-89 and Phil Garner got fired in favor of Cecil Cooper. Purpura was shown the door and Ed Wade was hired. Looking at the rosters, however, I’m not ready to wave the white flag and say the 2017 Astros are clearly better than the 2007 ones. Berkman was still very good, but not an MVP candidate. Carlos Lee provided offense and humor. Luke Scott and Hunter Pence were pretty good too. When you look at pitching, I’d take Oswalt and Wandy again, but the other guys would make you long for more Doug Fister. I still think Lidge was better than Giles at that point…but it’s debatable.
So what happens in 2017? Recall yesterday I was an optimist. I’m on the fence now. Can Correa improve? What about Springer? Altuve can’t possibly repeat this season’s production…can he? I’m done talking about Gattis. Give me your honest assessment of our AA and AAA ranks and which players are going to step in and provide pennant chase worthy performances if injuries or ineffectiveness plague us. 73-89 could be closer than you think…
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Devin,
Let me help you with your math. 10 years ago would be September 30, 2006, not 2007. Thus, this would be the end of the 2006 season, a team that finished with 82 wins, missed the playoffs and 2 of the big 3 starting pitchers are going to be free agents. We also had traded one of our best prospects, Ben Zobrist, for Aubrey Huff, thus leaving our farm system very depleted.
Now, if you want to pretend the team in 2007 could even be remotely close to as good as 2017 please proceed to humor yourself. However, any unbiased pundit would clearly rate the current situation in much, much better shape than 10 years ago. Carlos Lee, while a nice offensive player, was Evan Gattis in LF. Oswalt was still a TORP, but the bullpen only had Lidge as a strong relief pitcher and 2007 was not a good year for him. Wandy was not the pitcher he later became with the Astros and the team, along with the farm system, was in shambles. This would explain our 73-89 record. Berkman was still a good player, but the rest of the team was not good. Our current core of Altuve, Springer, Correa and Bregman is a much stronger core than the aging core of the 2007 team.
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Tim, I’m saying the 2017 Astros could be as bad as the 2007 team if a few things go wrong. As Becky has pointed out, this is a big offseason for Luhnow. He does not have a cushion at Corpus or Fresno.
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If the 2017 Astros are as bad as the 2007 Astros then I’ll fully support firing Luhnow. I’m very, very confident they won’t be that bad.
They do have pitching prospects they can dip into for next season. Teoscar, Kemp and Fisher are still considered depth for the OF. Laureano and K Tuck are viable options for 2018 so we have much more depth than we had before the 2007 season.
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This is probably why the experts still have our farm system ranked very high, but the bloggers here are skeptical. Most of the fans don’t look at the lower levels as closely as AA and AAA.
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I don’t look as closely. Guilty as charged. Only a very small percentage of those guys ever end up as quality major league ball players. Altuve was one guy that stuck out for me early on. I followed him closely. I’m glad the experts see our talent as being potential impact players. But heck, I sure don’t see a whole lot of strength in the outfield. I’m not as optimistic as Callis. For right now, I’m comfortable saying that Tony Kemp is not a solution. Hernandez has shown far too little to be confident about his future. Fisher is still a prospect. Tucker is still a prospect. Historically, we’ll be fortunate to have one of those guys make a significant impact.
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Callis is an independent baseball writer with no ties whatsoever to the Astros. He has no reason, other than his many years of experience. to rate the Astros system so highly. Like you, I am an Astros fan, but I trust Callis’ assessment of our farm system much more than I trust my own. I have a tendency to be biased toward my favorite team, it’s just how I’m wired (and that is normally the case with most fans).
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I understand and agree with what both of you, Devin and Tim are saying. BUT!
No matter what the Astros do or any one else does this offseason, everything starts anew on April the 1st, and this year’s winners will not be the same team, just like the Royals were not the same team, no matter how hard they tried to keep it together.
Teams that won this year and lost in the offseason are going to be looking for players, and teams that lost this season and couldn’t afford free agents might be looking to trade that one or two expensive players that they have that would fulfill the Astros needs and they may want a great young SS or pitching prospect that is in our low minors but Top 15 prospect list.
The Astros have 10 outfielders in their Top 30
The Astros have 10 RHP in their top 30
The Astros have 3 SS in their top 30 and have Carlos Correa.
We have so many young players we have scouted and paid a lot of money to in the International free agent market that we signed that rebuilding teams without the money or daring might have coveted but didn’t make the financial sacrifice that the Astros did.
None of us scouted these players and we don’t know diddly about them but the other 29 teams do and now they might want two of them or even three of them for a Ryan Braun and his salary(Please, that was just an example that came to me first). Some of these players that other teams are familiar with might be our currency needed to trade with.
I’m older than you Devin, and I struggle to see my own future, let alone the Astros’ future, but I don’t want to forget that young players we have in our system will serve one of two purposes, and one of those may be to be used to get us players we need to get us to the promised land, now. Martes is the only player in our minor league system I don’t want to part with. Period.
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You’re right on at least one count. Something to be aware of is that baseball GMs are a bunch of copycats. They try to find the hot new thing and bring it to their town. Last offseason we experienced first hand the run on bullpen arms. Sipp got paid royally and Giles cost us a lot. This winter will be interesting and tough to predict, but based on some of the trades we saw last offseason it would seem that teams aren’t wanting a bunch of lottery tickets for their proven stars, but rather the top prospects from another team’s high minors. I think that’s where we are a bit bare, but eventually the cream will rise to the top.
However, I support acquiring someone else’s salary dump as long as it’s not Ryan Braun.
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Amen! The voice of reason and sanity, once again, OP.
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I support acquiring another team’s salary dump if it’s Mike Trout.
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So far JL has proven he can build a highly rated farm system. It’s time to prove he can build a WS winner.
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How many World Series titles have the Cardinals won since Luhnow left them? How many have the Rangers won since the great Jon Daniels has been the G.M. there? Luhnow is building a World Series winner, but it just hasn’t happened yet, and it may not result in a World Series win either. Do you think Jon Daniels has built a team capable of winning the World Series? I do, but it probably won’t happen for them this year (and I’m sure I’ll get the obligatory “they have a better chance than we do this year” responses) and it may never happen for them. Even if you build a team capable of winning a World Series doesn’t mean you will win the World Series. I’m sorry folks, but as I stated to Kevin above, there are no guarantees in life except death and taxes. Gerry Hunsicker built a team capable of winning a World Series in Houston. Did he win one?
The talent is in Houston and in the pipeline, mainly due to the great work done by the front office. Will the Astros win a World Series? I don’t know, but I do know they are a lot closer than they were 10 years ago (see my response to Devin above).
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Agreed Tim. Aside from the birth of my daughter, I have NO fondness for 2007 at all!
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Hey BIlly,
How are things for you and your family? Has your situation improved? I’ve been praying for you, brother.
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Thanks Tim…
Doing much better…we’ll be moving into our new place in Jan. Got a raise at work, currently staying with my mother in law while we save up money to move. Things have been MUCH better, and leaving that old place turned into a blessing in disguise.
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One thing that’s gonna help next year is the dead weight being gone for the whole year (Gomez, Castro, FISTER to name 3) and our best young guys being here for the whole year (Bregman!), Gattis being the starting catcher…and if Lance is back next year sans injury, our rotation is much better than it was to finish the year.
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Hell, it’ll be a lot better than what we started the year with. Keuchel, McHugh, Feldman, Fister, Fiers. That what we started with because LMJ wasn’t even throwing bullpens by opening day! We didn’t have even a 90mph fastball in our entire rotation. It was as about as hot as a can of Sterno in the empty fireplace.
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Remember the days when we were looking forward to people like Troy Patton, Jason Hirsh, Edwin Maysonett, Eli Iorg, Koby Clemens (LOL),JR Towles, that Saccomano guy, Kat Mazsui was our second baseman, all those at bats by Jason Michaels…BUd Norris was our ace…
Yeah, I take our current franchise over them in a heartbeat.
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Oh, and the immortal Tommy Manzella as our SS!
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Brian Bogusevic, Pitcher.
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Jio Mier, the #10 pick in the draft because Uncle D did not want to go over slot to sign draft picks.
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Oh yea, when anybody who saw him play in college knew it was a mistake.
I left off one name…Jio Mier….
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Hey Billy…..Bud Norris got released last week!! Think he could still be our “ace”!
LOL! LOL!!!!!
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More like another 3 lettered word that starts with “a” lol
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Ugh! Uncle D sure left Jim Crane with a bare, bare cupboard. I remember trading Hirsch for Jason Jennings and he was our top prospect. Injuries derailed his career, but even mentioning Jason Jennings makes my skin crawl.
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Woody Williams, 2007
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*shudder* Woody WOODPECKER probably could’ve pitched better.
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WHY IS CASTRO STILL STARTING?!
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To keep our #1 catcher from getting injured?
To keep our other catcher who will be around next season from getting injured?
We are facing a RH pitcher tonight.
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Stassi needs to start the final 2 games. I agree with resting Gattis as he will be the guy next year.
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To put things in perspective, read our comments here…
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Dang Billy……we were talking about “settling” for 67 wins!!
And Bopert was RIGHT about not being able to hang with that other team in north texas! Jeeze….and that was only *3* years ago!! Good Lord this team was bad.
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You were right about Texas and Choo, for sure!
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Things were really bleak back then. No TV and settling for 67 wins. Wow. I guess we should be grateful for what we do have. At least we still have a team here and it’s a team we don’t have to be ashamed of.
And most of us are still hanging around here thanks to Chip and Dan.
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Seems I used to be a fan of our GM.
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And i predicted 70 wins for the 2014 team!!! And 2015 was the year I said we needed to make the playoffs…
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I was going to mention this, but felt everyone has a right to change their tune. 🙂
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Musgrove will not start Sunday, it will be either Fires or Rodgers. PLEASE let it be Brady Rodgers! PLEASE!! I can’t believe we are down to just three games for 2016.
It’s been soo much fun boys and girls, we sure have had a lot to “talk” about haven’t we!
I want to take an opportunity to thank Dan P for fitting in our little blog while working full time! Every entry was packed full of the grind of being an Astros fan. We thank you Dan for filling in for Chip during a looong hot summer!
Thank you Chip Bailey for starting this blog so many, many years ago!! Where would we be without your guidance! We have welcomed many new names and faces, we’ve lost some who never came back😢 I’m talking about you Bill Holmes, and Flash!!
I hope those guys who have worked so hard this season will be recognized for their excellent effort……like our own Altuve! Our lineup will look a little different for 2017 I hope those we have loved will still be here, along with a few new names no doubt we will L EARN to love! I can’t tell you how I cherish each and every one of you. I love our Astros family here on this blog, I feel like I’ve known you my whole life. To my girlfriends: Sandy, Nance, and Diane thank you for being you!
For all you fellas: Thanks for being a walking baseball reference everyday! I love that I learn something new almost everyday! I don’t care whose in the world series as long as it’s not that despicable team in arlington! Thanks, Becky ⚾
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I feel the same Becky. About our Astros family and that other team.
Who ever takes out that despicable arlington team will be my hero.
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I don’t think anyone will be able to hang with the Cubs, they have the pitching, and no holes in their lineup.
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Must be 2013 again…at least Peacock thinks so…
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Well…..that was a tidy little loss. Kinda like a spring training game. It appears that Peacock reverted back to his 2014 self, with walks.
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Apparently the Astros offseason started Thursday with Baltimore’s win because nobody showed up for the Astros tonight.
If the Astros give away the last two games they could actually move up three spots in the draft next June, if the clubs they are battling with take their games more seriously and try to win.
It seems with nothing on the line the Astros aren’t going to let a little thing like pride get in the way of a good time.
It’s appropriate that we are already blogging about next year.
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They always play poor when they have a day off…..always have. But I would THINK pride would come into play somewhere in these three games. By the way, that was that kids very first win with the Angels. If my memory serves me right, he pitched pretty good at MM when we played them last week. He lost that game but it wasn’t a blowout.
P.S. how is your sweet wife? Is she getting better everyday? I know she IS because I pray for you both every single night♡♡
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At least Gustave and Paulino had good outings in relief. Unlike some others, I really do not expect much from either – especially Paulino – so to see them pitch well was encouraging. I am assuming Jeff is showcasing them – and Rodgers – for a trade.
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Jake Kaplan is reporting that the Astros have a strong interest in bringing back Jason Castro next year. I am somewhat surprised by this considering their hardline stance in arbitration this offseason and Jason’s weak offensive output. The free agency market is extremely thin at catcher and this might be part of the reason, but that also means Jason will probably get overpaid. The Astros don’t seem to have any trust in Stassi or Heinemann as even a regular backup.
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Anything that anyone says at this point is posturing. Nobody is going to say anything bad or questionable about anybody. This is Hot Stove! Castro’s failure at the plate, the failure of the pitching staff to perform, his sudden inability to throw out base stealers, combined with the passed balls and wild pitches speaks volumes.
I would rate bringing Castro back as being on a par with signing Gomez as a free agent. That’s how I feel about Castro.
Although the club has expressed interest in bringing him back and he says he’s not opposed to coming back, I’m hoping that one of them is not telling the truth.
Take a look at Castro’s stats in last year’s playoffs, if you want to see how he does in the clutch. How in the world will we ever win a world series when our most experienced player, who is supposed to lead his team, performs like that?
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I’d be extremely angry if they resign Castro.
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Peacock remains a tease. I have no confidence in him long term. I just don’t think he wants it bad enough.
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Yes, I wish we had given this start to Paulino. Peacock’s amazing September could have given him some trade value. But he pretty much blew that to smitherenes last night. One too many starts . . . .
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By the way, AJ Reed looks eerily like Jon Singleton at the plate, more and more every day.
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Can’t help but to be a bit chagrined. Not one wild card team determined yet from either league. Two days left in the regular season. What a finish to come, maybe even a game or two on Monday to determine who gets to play the play in game! We should be in the thick of things right now, where every pitch and error and managing decision and hit is so amplified.
But being in the morgue on Wednesday afternoon, it was clear that the majority of Astro fans had been finished with this team way earlier in the season. I don’t think the city ever really got behind this team at any point in 2016. And that has to be a pretty big concern over on Crawford Street.
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Well, this town is extremely obsessed with football, and it seems like many people just view the Astros as a stopgap until football season.
For me, it’s just the opposite. The offseason is unbearably long
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Dave the last time Houston was a REAL baseball town was in 2005. I’ve never figured out why baseball is not big here, but it’s not. Football…and basketball, is all these people are interested in. Who knows, if Crane starts putting a couple of big names on this roster, baseball *might* be popular here again.
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I turned the Astros game on the TV at work on Monday, and one of my co-workers complained, saying how baseball is “boring” and asked how I can watch it. I’ll leave out some of the spicier words I used. Sorry, if I wanted to watch people causing brain damage to each other, I’d…actually, no I wouldn’t.
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Well, let’s just think about this for a minute:
The Astros are downtown and the huge majority of people who make up a fan base live in the suburbs. The idea of driving an hour to get home, and gathering the family together and driving back downtown, watching a three hour game and then driving home with the family and getting them to bed just before midnight and getting yourself up for work and them for school seems very unappealing, does it not? It doesn’t matter if you are a women or a man, but that you live in the suburbs. How many folks did you eliminate with that move?
How many fans left when the Astros left the NL?
How many fans left when they couldn’t watch the games on TV?
How many fans left when the team tanked on purpose?
In a conservative area, how many fans left when Crane hangs out with the guys he hangs out with?
How many fans don’t come to ball games that last three hours because every batter leaves the batter’s box after every pitch, everybody visits the mound constantly, every ball that touches the ground has to be disposed of, every play that is close delays the game for a looksee, half the looksees end up in a review and half the reviews change the way the game was called in the first place?
How many fans don’t like baseball players and their filthy, spitting, slimy habits?
How many fans, who don’t mind any of the previously mentioned things, have $200 to take their family to one game against an ordinary team or $400 against a “premium” team?
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“In a conservative area, how many fans left when Crane hangs out with the guys he hangs out with?”
Yet these same people would rather watch people concussion themselves to an early grave. Speaks volumes, actually.
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I think you’re using my sincere reasoning about why the Astros can’t regain traction in the community to make a point that does not pertain to the subject.
A lot of people think baseball ignored steroids that led to an early grave or dipping that led to an early grave, or throwing a 95 mph fastball at someone’s body that leads to an early grave. Baseball is not pure.
I also don’t see the connection between conservative fans being one’s who watch people concussing themselves. Anyone who watches football is doing that, no matter whether they are conservative or liberal.
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I think what I was trying to say came out wrong. Had nothing to do with whether or not they are conservative or not, just the fact the they would let politics dictate whether or not they support a team (whose players have absolutely nothing to do with the owner’s views). That’s important, yet people suffering brain damage and poor qualities of life at far too young of an age is not a big deal. I honestly don’t get that. At one point (which THANK GOD seems to be going away somewhat), “big hits” used to be celebrated and put on the highlight reels..I kid you not, but I remember around 10-15 years ago, there was a clip on ESPN where somebody got sacked and these goobers in the booth were laughing and saying how he “got hit into next week”. IMHO that was disgusting.
And yeah, as far as baseball goes, with the steroids and what not…well, even I almost gave up in the mid to late 90s. I have many reasons why I despise the hell out of Bud Selig, and that is at or near the top of the list. I think “headhunters” are barbaric and are a disgrace…I don’t get the point of intentionally hitting someone and throwing at their damned head.
So, I guess to sum up a long and boring drawn out point…I think people get hung up over things that in the long run don’t matter, yet ignore the things that actually do.
That’s all I was trying to say.
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Billy, what do you think of my reasons why the Astros aren’t getting the support that they have gotten in the past? Do they make sense?
I give a number of examples from one end of the spectrum to the other. Do those reasons, added to football and basketball, cover a lot of the Astros popularity problems? Are there some I missed?
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I think not being able to watch the games was a big thing, although with Comcast I’ve never run into that problem. The move to the AL did piss me off at first but I got over that. I had no idea it had gotten that expensive…I have not gone to a game in many years, and yeah being downtown is one reason why, although I’m not as far away (Clear Lake area). (I just hate downtown in general, for many, many reasons).
So yeah, those are all good reasons, but the main thing is this has always been a football town, at least during my lifetime. We lost the fair-weather fans a long time ago (and heck, even coming up, I’d see at least half the fans in the Dome cheering for the opposing team). The problems you mentioned actually drove a fair amount of the diehards away. and that’s the real problem.
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The ballpark is located surrounded by the most densely populated area of Houston. Why is the huge majority of the fan base out in the suburbs? Do we even know this? And if so, how come people living inside the loop don’t support the Astros? Especially the very significant group of young upwardly mobile population with disposable income living inside the loop and close to town? Is baseball not hip enough for them? Becky mentioned 2005. That specific demographic helped attendance go beyond 3 million. And the National League issue? I was totally pissed, but I rarely even think about it any longer. I think the TV issue has been a real factor. But I really think it’s mostly about an arrogance this organization portrays. Consumers are more intelligent all the time. I just don’t think enough Houstonians take this organization seriously. Especially those who have the money to go to the park whenever they want to. They want to see a real commitment to excellence without waiting a half decade or more for it to happen.
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The population has moved outside the Loop Dave. They moved out there to establish their own communities Cities and schools. West Loop outward there is a million people. North loop outward their is a million people and East and south they are moving southward. I could not believe what I saw south of the south loop the last time I was there. Oh, sure there are people who live close to town, but not close to half of the population of the market lives close to MMP.
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OP, the population has burst further and further outside the loop as the growth of our greater metro area has continued to out pace most metropolitan areas of the US, but close in density is still there. In fact, it’s growing too, as buildings no longer relevant are raised for multi unit housing, and mid and high rise development. Walking through downtown for the past four days, I think there are at least eight high rise rental or condo projects recently completed or just topping out. And just south of downtown there are more, same thing happening heading west out of town towards Memorial Park. All new housing. And just east of the ballpark, there are thousands of housing units literally within walking distance of Minute Maid. Houston might become the third largest city in the US in population over the next decade, taking over that position from Chicago. Keeping this continued growth in perspective, ours is a great market for a well run Major League Baseball club.
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Back when the ballpark was still in the discussion phase, I was interviewed by the Chronicle (SPIT!) and said the exact thing about the fanbase being in the suburbs. I spoke of the traffic issues involved and the parking situation. The vagrant situation and the depleted buildings in the neighborhood. Granted, the building situation has greatly improved but the parking and the drive to the suburbs and back is still in play. Maybe it is my age but I prefer, now, to simply watch the game on the television and see ALL of the action instead of having to wonder, “what did I miss just then?”
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Let me try to explain why this city is no longer a baseball town.
Yes….there are a LOT of people who live in Kingwood, and The Woodlands who used to be fans of this team. BUT…..the last 5-6 years Drayton owned the team, they were not playing good baseball, and folks lost interest. The Astros front office back then really didn’t try to stir up a fan base and frankly this front office is failing in that area as well. Then we started the full blown rebuild, trading Berkman, Pence, Bourn, and Oswalt……and all those some time fans left for good.
Yes Dave there are quite a few of those “up and coming” young men and women who live and work inside the loop, my son is one of them. BUT they aren’t really interested in baseball, and just so-so on football. They would much rather go to a sports bar and slug down a few beers and nachos watching sports on T.V. They aren’t interested in spending $150 on a baseball game sitting among the OTHER teams fans……neither am I.
You know what team is getting the baseball support? The Sugarland Skeeters! Front page of the Chronicle this morning is ALL about the Skeeters winning a first time championship! The tickets are cheap, the food is not expensive, and every guy playing USED to be in MLB! You get to watch some pretty good baseball, and it doesn’t break the bank. A LOT of families are able to take their kids, and let the kids be kids……..not having to sit down and be quiet like at MM.
Unless, and until this team starts winning, and winning year after year…..baseball will only be important to folks like us.
You know what REALLY irritates me? That sooo many people who are elderly or disabled can’t get to the park, and can’t see this team on television because cable carrier’s LIKE mine won’t pick up Root sports. I’ve written some pretty nasty letters to Suddenlink, and got nowhere.
I don’t give a rats a$$ who Crane hangs with……I DO however think it’s P A S T time for him to get out that fat wallett, and let his GM put a quality product on the field.
I’m going to give him two more years to get with the program, before he finds NO ONE sitting in those $150.00 seats other than Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees fans.
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Fair points Becky. Folks have definitely lost interest and this new ownership group has not gotten enough of them back, nor have they grown enough of a new fan base. I’ve got a 32 year old nephew and a 22 new old nephew. Both probably go to ten games a year. I’m certain they’d go more often if the product was better. The Skeeters have their own fan base, but there are plenty of people living in the greater Houston area to support both clubs.
And building more solid fan support among the senior population is another area that seems to be ignored. Transportation, discounted tickets for those on fixed incomes, just simple recognition does not happen.
And to have potential customers still unable to watch every game on their television at home is incredible, especially in this day and age.
But I think we have to realize that Jim Crane is making money when he draws the 2.3 million paid customers on the books for this year, at least as long as he keeps the payroll somewhere in the neighborhood where he has it. So I’m not real optimistic that all of a sudden we’ll start spending as a top 10 payroll club in MLB.
As the Crane investment continues to grow value, he may well simply be happy putting out a slightly better than mediocre product. If it makes good business sense, that could be all we get. The best ownership groups in professional sports have a real passion for winning. We might be missing that part.
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Oh yeah almost forgot, FIND SOME GUYS THAT CAN HIT LEFT HANDED PITCHERS!
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A team that was in decline, for sale, and forced to move to another league drove a lot of fans away.
Years of being the laughing stock of baseball plus no TV deal helped true baseball fans to switch allegiances to other teams namely the Rangers. A downtown stadium that relies on random parking lots that can choose to charge what ever they want depending on what team is visiting is not helping draw fans either. And as Becky mentioned, its almost impossible for handicapped fans to attend.
When I was younger and lived inside the loop I could ride the bus.
It was safe then and convenient.
Now, living in the suburbs it’s drive or stay home.
I may be alone here but I found the Astrodome better for watching a game. No matter where you sat you could see the whole field. Even the cheapest seats had a good view. It doesn’t appear that people are going to these games to actually watch the play but more to socialize. I’m not for all the added attractions and games either. Just give me a seat with a good view and play baseball.
As for Crane, I find him despicable but that won’t stop me from being a fan of this team.
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I agree with your thoughts on the Dome.
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I am so glad I started this.
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What did you start?
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I remember our season tickets were right behind home plate, about 12 rows up in the orange seats. You are so right, nearly everyone had a good view of the game!
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This is the lineup we should’ve played yesterday too. Tomorrow Stassi needs to start too.
Looking forward to Bregman next year and another season of Correa.
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Collin McHugh: 8 innings…100 pitches….5 strikeouts. ..1 hbp…..1walk…*0* runs!!
I’ll take that everyday and twice on Sunday!! Finishes 2016 with 13 wins, not bad considering how BAD he started out the season.
Altuve 215 hits….30 steals!!
Marisnick *3* hits!
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He’s always been a favorite of mine. I hope this version of Collin shows up next spring.
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