Mama never said it would be easy

The Astros have a tough row to hoe to get into the playoffs. So, does everybody else. And there are a lot of everybody else’s involved. Boston, Baltimore, New York, Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle and Houston all have reasonable shots at the two playoff spots in the American League with the Red Sox in the cat bird seat with a 2 game lead for the first wild card spot.

In their last 31 games, the Astros have ten games against the first place Texas Rangers and the first place Cleveland Indians. They have six games against their AL West rivals the Seattle Mariners who start Tuesday a game back of the Astros. But they do have some opportunity games against the likes of the Angels, A’s and White Sox.

It feels like if the Astros  can get to September 19th in reasonable shape, the last couple weeks of the season bend their way. They finish the season with 10 games against the Angels and A’s with 3 Mariner games added to the mix.

After a 5 game stumble in mid-August, the Astros have righted the ship against weaker teams and are on an 8-2 run that is raised them to within two games of the second wild card spot.

So the questions for you today are:

  • What percentage chance do you see for the Astros of getting into the playoffs?
  • How many of the 6 games against the Rangers do they need to win?
  • How many of the 31 games left do they need to win?
  • Which other team do you worry the most about for beating the Astros out of that 2nd wild card?
  • If the Astros don’t make the playoffs will 2016 be a successful year?

 

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171 responses to “Mama never said it would be easy”

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  2. I think their chances are 1 in 5. They need to win every series because when they lose a game in a five-team race someone gains a game on them every time.
    Since they need to win every series I think they need to win four of the six games against Texas to have a shot.
    Since they are behind several teams, I think they need to go 20-11 in their last 31 with an outside shot at it if they are 19-12.

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  3. % chance of making the playoffs: 10-20% in my estimation
    wins vs. Rangers necessary: at least four
    total wins necessary: 18
    teams in the 2nd WC chase that worry me most: a. Tigers; b. Royals

    From my perspective, 2016 will be a successful year, even if we don’t make the playoffs, because it will end a number of stopgaps that were preventing us from taking the next step:
    – Valbuena at 3B [Bregman/Gurriel is here];
    – Gomez and Rasmus in the OF [Hernandez and Kemp are here now – til JL trades them, as I expect him to do – who will he pick up as FAs?];
    – Gattis as a DH [his days at DH are over; he can catch – let Gurriel/Bregman DH!];
    – Feldman as an SP [Devenski, Musgrove, and Feliz are here – at least one, however, will almost certainly be traded in the off-season]
    – D.K. as our ace [going forward, he’s our #2 or 3 – or he’s part of a package for a TOR; new ace will either be McCullers, Musgrove, or a TOR to be named later].
    – Jason Castro as our main catcher [he has finally priced – and failed to hit – himself right out of the market for us];

    It remains to be seen whether in 2017 we will have a stronger rotation, a legitimate 1Bman who produces offensively like a corner infielder should, outfielders flanking Springer that can contribute at least at league average offensively, an effective LOOGY, and a closer who can actually avoid walking people 75% of the time and giving up home runs like a vending machine gives out peanuts. If we have at least two of these things, we should compete for the Division Championship – not just the 2nd Wild Card.

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  4. This feels a lot like one of the Purpura years where they would get in a hole and put together a big finish to miss the playoffs by 2-3 games. Then, we’d talk about being one player away or some nonsense like that in the offseason.

    1. I would put their odds at 5-1 against right now. Here’s what I think:
    – Baltimore’s goose is cooked. Their schedule is too tough.
    – Boston has a rough schedule as well. This may be the opening Houston needs
    – Detroit’s schedule isn’t very scary
    – KC’s schedule isn’t very scary and they are on fire
    – Texas’ schedule is the easiest of any playoff hopeful
    – Seattle has enough tough games that we could stay ahead of them

    2. I think we need to go 4-2 against Texas. Losing any series down this stretch could be the straw that you know what.
    3. I think anything worse than 21-10 eliminates us from contention. Even at that we will need help.
    4. Boston. I think KC takes the first wild card…which means we have to gain and pass the current leaders.
    5. Missing the playoffs this year will be…typical. I’m not ready to label it a failure, but also not ready to forgive the FO if it happens. They tried out a number of rookies who I was sure wouldn’t get a chance for forty man roster reasons. They didn’t blow up their farm system to acquire two players past their prime like in 2015. That’s progress, I think. However, regardless what the divisional opponents look like, I think anything short of a division crown in 2017 means the FO has peaked and needs a change of scenery.

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    • You’re going to have to find a new owner for that to happen. Crane loves Luhnow and especially loves the fact he can put a competitive team together on a relatively low payroll. The front office isn’t going anywhere unless this team completely falls off the rails next year. I don’t see Crane selling the team by the start of next season.

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      • Tim, I don’t know Jim Crane so this is speculation, but the bottom line is what counts. Here’s a link for you:
        http://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance

        We are 17th in home attendance and 20th overall. This is actually up from 22nd/24th from 2015. We’ll see what happens now that school is back in session.

        As to being competitive on a low payroll…take out Springer and Correa from your figures as they are playing at the lowest possible figure the team can give them. Now put those two players on any other team in baseball and tell me, regardless of payroll, which teams are not improved enough to be almost in a playoff spot.

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      • I can easily list 10 teams that Springer and Correa would not make playoff teams. Angels, A’s, Twins, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Reds, Brewers, DBacks and White Sox. You can probably add the Astros and Rockies to that list. You can’t win without pitching.

        The attendance is improving, but revenue is primarily generated by TV money. Crane is not firing Luhnow if the Astros contend, but don’t win the division next year.

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      • I always lean towards what the Braves felt for most of the 90s and I am not sure who but it was a genius that coined the phrase – hitting wins games but pitching wins championships.

        There were many times the Astros lost games that were winnable because of the lack of timely hitting. Thing is that happens to every team in baseball. It’s not a rarity in the league for teams to lose 2-1 games when they had the bases load at some point in the game. Some of that could be addressed by better contact hitters. None of it will matter though if you have starters that put you behind the power curve or consistently only go 5 innings.

        The Astros have to either address the pitching or convince themselves that slightly better years (similar to say last year) from Keuchel and McHugh would have (and can next year) put this team in the playoffs. As scared as I am of him accepting, a QO for Fister probably isn’t something I would do but I am not going to cry foul the way I did with Rasmus.

        I also think going into ST they need to set those bullpen roles. When most of the same crowd all perform so much worse than the season before you have to diagnose what you are doing as a franchise or doom yourself to repeat it. There will be a billion opines as to what their issue is/was, but for me it’s simply not defining roles. The best bullpens, all the soldiers in them know, I’m the closer. I’m the setup. These two guys are the 6-7 innings guys. I’m the mopup. I’m the long man/emergency starter. I didn’t see as much of that this year as last year, just seemed more flippy flappy.

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  5. Hi Dan,

    I think you confused the White Sox with the Cubs. We don’t play the White Sox anymore, but we do have a 3-game series against the Cubs in Houston Sept. 9-11.

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    • Oops! That is 3 more challenging games out of the 31.
      I would fire my research assistant but that would limit the number of future blog posts. Maybe I’ll just cut his pay in half.

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  6. The team that worries me is KC, because if they catch the Indians that makes the goal even farther ahead of us.
    I don’t like to talk about sweeping teams because that usually doesn’t pan out. But, somewhere in there, the Astros need to put together a decent winning streak.
    What is encouraging to me is that the Astros have run into some hot teams lately and still have been able to beat them. Even Oakland came to Houston yesterday having won two series in a row against two good teams. The Astros have cooled some pretty hot jets. Wasn’t Baltimore on a winning streak when we took 3 of 4 from them in their house?

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    • KC is definitely the team that concerns me the most. I realize they still have a negative run differential, but they are the defending World Champions and you can just see they are getting their mojo back. I think Baltimore will fade into oblivion and I see Cleveland and KC knocking Detroit out of the picture, but KC definitely scares me. Our best hope might be to win 3 of the 4 games in Cleveland and hope they fade down the stretch where KC wins the division and we surpass Cleveland.

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  7. I’m going to be an optimist and put our chances at 40%. Yes we’ll need to go 19-12 as OP1 put it to have a real shot. Anything less will be a “wait till next year”. And yes KC is hot and the MLB guys have put them in the highly likely team to make it. Boston also is on the top of the heap so the Htown boys will need to keep ahead of everybody else and chip away at the leaders.
    Wouldn’t it be great to take a couple of these series from the “strangers” as well as winning the other series we play.

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  8. Is that the ghost of Waylon Jennings I see outside MMP? Is that Willie Nelson singing with him? And is this what I hear them saying:

    The Astros ain’t easy to love and their harder to figger.
    They love to trade young guns for old farts who’ve lost all their vigor.
    They’ve got no silver boots, and they don’t pay big loot, and they treat their young prospects like litter;
    so if he aint’ no high draft pick the best he can hope for is that every tenth game he’ll be a pinch-hitter.

    Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be Astros.
    Don’t let ’em sign contracts with Luhnow and Crane –
    let ’em stay happy, and healthy, and sane!
    Mama’s, don’t let your babies grow up to be Astros.
    Cause they never win pennants, and they blame their Lieutenants –
    and ship ’em on the next train.

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    • Diane, from my perspective, that was all written with tongue firmly planted in cheek. It’s all us poking fun at ourselves – lest we all really go crazy.

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      • Remember, Waylon and Willie wanted the exact opposite of what they slyly wrote. They wanted all the babies to grow up to be cowboys!

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      • Of course, if your name is Allen Rowin, Paul Runge, or Leon Roberts, you might not see the humor in the parody at all.

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  11. look folks we are 2 out with 31 to go! thats prime striking position. devin we made the playoffs last year dont forget. we now have a solid lineup thru #6 now that gurriel is here and if rasmus comes back and can hit that stretches it to #7 and clears up that left field mess we have, add marwin or ANYBODY that will hit a bit at 1B and throw in one of the top fielding center fielders in the game in marisnick and thats a team that can succeed. the bearded wonder is showing signs of coming to life, we have a solid bullpen and the rest of the staff is good enough to win if given run support, which this lineup can do. i feel pretty good. too bad most of you wrote them off (again) a month ago. hang in there, be positive, good things may happen.

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    • I like your enthusiasm. I’m not giving up…I’m just saying the margin for error is paper thin. As for Gurriel, I think he’s been great. I hate putting the pressure on him to continue that for the next 31 days. Maybe you are right that between him, Correa, Springer, and the great Altuve there is enough to go on an extended hot streak.

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  12. From a franchise standpoint, I think this has been a successful season.
    – Attendance is up
    – They have managed to have a winning record despite their top of the rotation losing more games than they won and their #3 starter out for much of the year.
    – Altuve’s huge year
    – Bregman’s surge
    – Musgrove making it all the way up
    – Gattis behind the plate
    – Teoscar’s big rebound
    – Rodger’s big improvement
    – Giles’s improvement
    – Drafting a stud like Forrest Whitley and having him as our #3 prospect this morning.
    – Devenski proving he belongs
    – Getting Gurriel for four more years
    – Hoyt doing it in AAA
    – Getting something good from Feldman and then getting someone good for Feldman.
    – Releasing Danry Vasquez immediately.
    – Francis Martes pitching real well in AA at age 20 and is Our #1 prospect this morning.
    – Kyle Tucker producing through High A ball at age 19 and is our #2 prospect this morning
    – Garrett Stubbs’s hitting! Bregman is officially out as a prospect and Stubbs debuts at #30 this morning.
    – Finally getting our money’s worth out of Gomez by getting him to Arlington.
    – Still having 3 shortstops in our top 20 prospects.
    – Building a new Spring training facility to be ready for next spring with much better access to other teams.
    – Reupping with Fresno and Quad Cities
    – Getting Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields and having the Dodgers pay his bonus!
    – Getting a bunch of young players a good look at the majors.
    That’s enough for now.

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  13. In case you haven’t been watching Cuban signee Yordan Alvaraz since we obtained him from the Dodgers for Josh Fields, the 6’5″ 1B and DH has played 16 games [57 PAs] for the Astros’ Orange team in the Dominican Summer League. So far he is slashing .341/.474/.974, with 1 HR, 2 DBLs, a TPL, 7 runs scored, 4 RBI, and 2 SB. Also of note, he has walked 12 times and struck out only 7.

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    • Meanwhile, Lupe Chavez, the 18 yr. old pitcher from Mexico that we acquired for Scott Feldman, has done well for the Astros lower affiliates since he came over. He has pitched in 5 games [2 starts] going 13.2 innings. In that time, he has given up only one earned run, on 7 hits. He has struck out 15, while walking 6. He’ll finish this season with the Greeneville Astros of the Appalachian league.

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      • And if you are curious about how 6’7″ 1st round draft choice Forrest Whitley [18 year old RH from San Antonio] has done since his signing, you might want to wait til next year to check in on him. So far he’s not exactly setting the world on fire from an ERA and WHIP standpoint, but he has struck out 26 in 18.2 innings, while only walking 6.

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      • Whitley has pitched 18.2 innings and allowed 19 hits , only 6 walks and 26 strikeouts.
        He’s 18 years old pitching mostly against 21 year olds. In the GCL they average 2.5 years older than him and in Greeneville they average 3 years older than him. I think he’s doing great. He’s playing against guys who were drafted out of college.

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  14. I’m hopeful that we’ve gotten answers for at least three significant roles next year.

    1. Of course that would be Bregman, as I believe he’s here to hit and stay. And forgetting about a couple of off games defensively, he’s our guy at third. As has been said before, having a guy at third with shortstop skills in this era of so many defensive switches is invaluable. He’s not fast, but he’s mobile. He’s looked good coming in on balls and he’s shown a strong arm from back behind the bag.

    2. I think first base will be fixed for 2017, if not by Reed, and if not by Valbuena, certainly not with Marwin again. Gurriel, if needed, will be the answer there. If he can play third, he can figure out first. He’s too talented to be a dedicated DH. And if Gurriel is not needed at first, then maybe he’ll help fix the outfield.

    3. If Gattis and his knees can play 100 to 120 games behind the plate and Heineman can hold his own offensively for the others, the back stop position is also resolved.

    So in these three areas alone, 2016 becomes at least a partial success. We should end up with a pretty darn good infield at the very least for 2017.

    Still though, much work to do. It’s time to finally have that stable outfield, both defensively, and offensively. And we’ve got to hope that at least two guys in the rotation get better and another one stays healthy. Still lots of question marks in that most essential area. We’ve got to replace a couple of guys in the pen too. So there’s ways to go. If we don’t improve in all areas, we don’t go deep into the post season in 2017. I just don’t want to again struggle through another season entering September 6 or 8 games over .500. It’s time to become a force.

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  15. Colby Rasmus has been activated off the DL and Brad Peacock sent back to Fresno. Now, before we just say, well hohum, just another poor hitter added to our lineup let’s not forget what Colby did late last season and into April this year before the vertigo and inner ear cyst cropped up. It may take Colby a bit to get his timing back, but if we can get some semblance of what we saw in April or the end of last year this would be a nice addition to our lineup.

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    • Agreed. It’s not like Teoscar or Marisnick were murdering the ball for us anyway, or like Kemp was even playing. Colby coming back can’t make our offense much worse even if he’s horrible, and he might actually give us a little boost when we need it the most.

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    • And he’s a LH bat, too. which we are in short supply of currently.
      They used Peacock two days in a row and for multiple innings yesterday. That was a move you could spot easily. They aren’t worried about Peacock hurting because the Grizzlies have three games left, he won’t have to pitch for them and he will be back after Sept 1, ready to pitch here if needed. Rasmus must really be ready, because they could have waited a few days if he weren’t. He might face Graveman tonight as he is 2 for 4 against the fastball throwing righty. Graveman is the guy who threw like 85% fastballs against us and blew right through our lineup.

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  16. For a last place team, the A’s sure do have some good starting pitchers. Manea was nails last night – until the errors at third unnerved him, and then hurt himself. Graveman has befuddled us all year. We need to break Graveman’s spell tonight.

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  17. McHugh needs to be at his best tonight because he has not pitched well against the A’s this season. Time to turn that around.

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  18. Rasmus is hitting sixth and playing LF. Marisnick in CF.
    Gattis DHing and Castro catching. Marwin at 1B.
    Gurriel and Teoscar not in the lineup.

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    • I understand giving Gurriel a day off, but that lineup looks scary, and not in a good way. Castro, Marisnick and Marwin don’t give me much hope. With another LH going against us tomorrow we will probably see Teo and Gurriel back in the Lineup, Gattis at catcher and Marwin at 1B.

      In other news Mike Elias was promoted to Assistant G.M. For those that don’t care for Luhnow you might like this move as Elias is a very smart man and is great at judging young talent.

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      • I really do not see how that follows, OP. Our righties don’t hit Graveman? You are so right – as it applies to the guys Hinch has put in the line-up – Marisnick, Springer, Correa, and Gattis. Hinch has put these guys in the line-up anyway, even though they are each hitting .250 or less against Graveman. I can see Springer and Correa, because they are our franchise, and there are no real options to replace them. But what about Yulieski Gurriel? While Gurriel has never faced Graveman, the one thing Gurriel has proven himself very good at is seeing and hitting a fastball. Major league quality off-speed stuff has been his only challenge. And Hinch seems to have totally forgotten he has Tony Kemp – a LH hitter – on the bench. Kemp is a scrappy, bunt-his-way-on, slap a double down the LH line, firestarter that lives off of fastballs.Again, his trouble is learning how to recognize and deal with major league quality breaking stuff. Moreover, Mr. Hinch once again conveniently forgets that by starting his back-up catcher at DH he could cause us to lose the DH for part of the game if Castro gets hurt or ejected. And he insists on using Gattis at DH though for two years running Gattis has proven incapable of hitting when he is not in the flow of the game because he is doing the catching.

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      • Bill, It has been pretty obvious that our RH batters have had a lot of trouble seeing Graveman’s fastball. They have to try something and they have to beat him. Again, I’d do anything that gives my team any edge I can think of.
        Please don’t ask me why Marisnick is in there. He’s 1 for 4 with an RBI and a K but maybe they liked what they saw of him when he faced Graveman. Maybe he made good contact the other couple of at bats.

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  19. I just heard on MLB Radio that Gurriell is not in the lineup tonight because he tweaked (not twerked) his hammy on a run to first last night and it is still tender. Has anyone else heard this??

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    • I cannot wait for Gurriel to get on a good major league workout program in the offseason designed just for him. The hammy is a distinct symptom of a guy who had months off and did what he could on his own, but he will have a dietician and everything he needs to get himself in top physical condition for next spring.
      I believe his circumstances of being on his own and trying to stay in shape is one of the reasons he was not played every game when he reported to our minor league teams.
      He has a very muscular lower body and he probably needs specific workouts to get those legs in shape, after being off since February. I think he will be a new man in February when he reports.
      Now that he is a millionaire, he can start eating like one and get his proper nutrition. I daresay that all of this will apply to his brother, as well.

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      • I agree OP. It is even more important when you are coming off of a lay off and you are 32 not 22. I like what I have seen so far when he is in the lineup. I may have to ultimately tip my hat to JL for a great signing.

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      • They both will think they died and went to heaven!! I’m sure Luhnow will do everything he can to make them feel welcome, and WANTED!!

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  21. i think its worth a shot, but very doubtful he drops to us. NL teams have first dibs. most likely you would have to work out a trade because the dodgers can pull him back.

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  22. Welcome back, Colby.

    Oh – and you might want to get Chris Devenski up and throwing. Colin does not have it tonight.

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      • I think Colby woke McHugh up. His first inning was 43 pitches, 2 hits, a walk, and only avoided giving up at least a run because of Colby’s outfield assist at home [credit Castro as much as Colby on that one].

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      • Bill, I missed the first couple of innings last night. Had I seen the first inning, I would not have made that comment!

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  27. Anyways – 9th win in 11 games – McHugh came back from that huge pitch clunt in the first to somehow get thru 6 innings. Good bullpen work (Gregerson overcoming bad fielding to only give up one run). Just enough hitting with Colby’s jack, Gattis forgetting he wasn’t catching and Bregman with 20 RBIs already.
    Fun!

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  28. 9 wins out of 11 games. McHugh overcoming the huge pitch count in the first to go 6 innings. Good job bullpen – Gregerson’s defense behind him giving up the run.
    Colby after no rehab cranking a jack, Gattis forgetting he was not catching and cranking a jack and Bregman already with his 20th RBI.
    Fun!

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  29. I love the way these guys are playing so well together, and they are on a mission.
    I know I’ve said it before, but when Gomez left this team…..they have started playing so much better. I don’t dislike Gomez, I just think he sucked the life outta this team, because he was not performing and I think that carried over to everyone else.
    What more can we say about Bregman! When he’s got guys on base, he smells a run!
    Colby Rasmus! Welcome back you! Gotta get past another tough lefty tomorrow, so get some sleep boys, and bring your bats to the park!
    P.S. the A’S traded Coco Crisp to the Indians today, that’s why he wasn’t in the lineup tonight.

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  30. Mama:
    I thought the 2016 McHugh was here, but it was the 2015 version and
    Colby Rasmus came to play.
    Mama, please don’t let the top of our order have to hit against Kendall Graveman again this year, or ever.
    Mom, The White Bear got satisfaction tonight.
    Hey mom, how come Correa gets an error on a ball that was probably going to be an infield hit?
    Ma, I thought you told our hitters to hit it hard to third base on the ground.
    Holy Cow, Mommie, did you se 99 Miles Giles throw that aspirin tonight.
    Mama, can Yuli come out and play with me tomorrow?

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  31. I watched the end of the Rangers game last night after the Astros win. I just love the emotion and passion Banister shows for his team. If you didn’t watch the game Odor made a big baserunning mistake in the 7th inning. He lined a single to RF and Beltre went from 1st to 3rd. Odor tried to stretch it into a double, but he got tagged out at 2nd for the 2nd out of the inning. Well, Odor hits the walkoff HR in the bottom of the 9th and Banister is runs out of the dugout pumping his fist and gives Odor a big bear hug off the ground after he reaches home. I don’t want to pick on Hinch, but I would sure love to see that type of emotion and passion from him. I think Banister is a big reason why the Rangers are doing so well. His players will run through a wall for him and they have that team chemistry. The Rangers are now 30-8 in 1-run games this year and are on pace to break the record that no one has ever set in 1-run games.

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    • I saw it and thought the same thing. There is definitely chemistry on that team but I’ve seen the same chemistry here. Unfortunately, for some reason, I don’t see it this year. At least not the same intensity of last year.

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    • I hate to agree with you on this, but I do. The Rangers’ hitters step up confidence that they will get the job done in the late innings. Sometimes you can see the Houston hitters with that same swagger, but other times they just seem disinterested. Over a number of years performance in one run games may normalize to something approaching their overall winning percentage for most teams, but in a small sample like one year with a fairly consistent roster it is obvious that some teams are way better than others.

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    • You and I will never agree with the other team in texas. I absolutely DESPISE their manager. If they are lucky enough to get to the world series……I hope they get their mouths full of dirt.

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  32. Now I’m really in a Mama mood….
    “Mama always told me not to look into the eyes of the sun, but Mama that’s where the fun is….”
    “Your Mama don’t dance and your Daddy don’t rock and roll…”
    “Oh Mama I’m in fear for my life from the long arm of the law….”
    “Mama said there’ll be days like this, there’ll be days like this mama said…”
    “Mama’s got a squeeze box….”

    Yeah I’m mostly stuck in the 70’s or before musically

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    • Mama. .. just beat the A’s ….
      we got our Guru Rasmus back,
      His first time up? a Colby Jack!
      Mama, the race has just begun
      now we’ve got to blow them all away!
      Mama, oooh, oooh, oooh, oooh . . . I don’t mean to make you sweat
      but if we don’t beat this Oakland team tomorrow
      Carry on, carry on, ’cause none of it really matters,
      nothin’ really matters for two-sixteen!

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  34. I am interested in all things Astros. I follow the farm, the prospects and their coaches, their front office personnel and their franchises and stadiums. I have complimented their minor league strategy and I have criticized it.
    If the Astro want to promote some, fire some, move some around, I don’t have a problem with it because they can get better. They cannot get better without better people, better strategy, smoother operation.
    They make mistakes. I make mistakes. Trying to correct mistakes and improve the organization is something I agree with. If they have to let some people go, so be it.
    As a human being, I like the fact they let those people know ahead of time so that they can find jobs elsewhere, even while they are still earning a living in their final months working for Houston. I think the Astros did them a service in that respect.
    In a world full of job cuts, I think the Astros did it right.

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  35. you can call her short, you can call her fat, but dont call her late for dinner she dont cotton to that. she’s my red hot mama………

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  37. oh mama mama how come you passed me by last night, oh mama mama how come you passed me by last night, had my back door open, front door locked up tight.

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  39. I’m pretty sure Gurriel’s hammy was not a big deal last night because he is starting in LF today.
    An all-RH lineup with Springer at DH, Teoscar in RF and Marisnick in CF, and Gattis behind the plate.
    Go Astros!

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  40. well listen now boys to what i say, this ole game of love aint easy to play, theres only one way to see what the future will hold, you better check out her mama before you get bold, check her mama before you say i do, check out her mama cause between me and you unless her mama is fine you better take your time she gonna look just like her mama on down the line

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  41. my mama likes the feel of cottage cheese, my mama likes the feel of cottage cheese, its feels good in your tummy and it feels good on your knees i said my mama likes the feel of cottage cheese.

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  42. “Come on baby light my fires….no time to wallow in the mire”
    “Come on baby light my fires….set the afternoon on FIRES!!”

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    • Mr. Vogt has already shown how easy it is to light up Mr. Fiers, Becky! I’m calling Smoky the Bear for the rest of this game.

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  43. 21 1st inning pitches for Fiers – including a double and a wild pitch. Only 11 pitches for Detweiler – including a strike-out of our lead-off hitter, George Springer. Not exactly the start to the game for which we were hoping.

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    • According to Baseball Reference, through yesterday, Houston has gotten 1.2 accumulated WAR out of the two players, all of it by Fiers.
      The Brewers have gotten negative .1 accumulated WAR by Santana.
      Playerwise the Astros have the advantage, so far.
      Money wise the Astros have forked out over $15 million for the two players and Milwaukee has spent about $500,000.
      Texas has gotten negative .3 out of Gomez, so that’s an advantage to Houston, too.
      But, 3 years from now, things might look a lot differently, depending on how the Brewer’s prospects turn out.

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      • Yeah, way too early to tell. Call me dense, or stubborn or whatever, but I still think Santana will be heard from and with the other kids, it’ll be a couple of years anyway, before we know. And maybe Fiers will win 15 next year, although I doubt that.

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  47. Two terrible defensive plays by Correa, one by Marisnick, coupled with a pitcher in love with his 88 mph fastball and we are in a deep hole.

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    • George is what he is. He is extremely talented, extremely athletic, and gives the game everything he has. Unfortunately, he does indeed tend to be quite ‘streaky’. That is why I have several times said that for me he is considered a long-shot candidate for a trade. He would be pricey to the max, but not quite ‘untouchable’ like Altuve or Correa.

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      • You think he can ever change into a consistent .275-280 hitter. I think he is always acting like his contacts are bugging him, maybe he needs to wear glasses

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      • I personally don’t think he’ll ever be that guy. I think he’ll have one or two years in his career when he hits .270 or better – and several when he maxes out at .260 or below. But he’ll almost always have a good OBP [over .350], and he’ll always give you 20 or more home runs and 70 RBI or more a year if he stays healthy.

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      • I view Springer as if he’s the anti-Gomez. Right now he lacks a two strike approach…but we knew of that as far back as his milb days. His physical tools allow him to get by with this. I think as he ages and can’t quite get the fast twitch muscles to respond as well we’ll start seeing him take some line drive singles to center instead of big swings (with 2 strikes) that send him to one knee. I’ve been wrong on this sort of thing before though…

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  49. Fiers, on the other hand, is #1 on my trade list. First of all, he’s 31 years old, so he’s not just figuring it out, and he’s not likely to get any better.

    Secondly, he has no velocity at all. He depends totally on location, and half of the time he actually does a decent – even occasionally excellent – job at location. The other half of the time however it is absolute batting practice for the opposing team. This year he has averaged giving up 9.7 hits, 2.1 BBs, and 1.5 HRs per nine innings. He only averages striking out 7 in those 9 innings. He has also thrown 15 wild pitches this year. This is not good enough to be more than a long reliever on a championship quality team. He should have some value because he has occasional success, so he needs to be part of the first package we send out of here.

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  50. You guys just make sure you’ve got someone to replace his WAR of 5.0, give or take a couple of tenths, before you pull the trigger. He’s actually been remarkably consistent over the past three years with an OPS of .804/.826/.817 in 2014, 2015 2016. How would that look in centerfield?

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