King of the hill: Easier to get there than stay there

It’s easier to get to the top than to stay on the top. And that’s what Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch are learning in 2016.

Yes, Luhnow made some significant changes to the framework of the roster over the winter, but it’s a continual process. The scary part of the process at present is this: For the Astros to improve in 2016, it will likely require a trade or two. And that is not Luhnow’s strength. In fact, it’s proving to be a weak area where he gives up more than necessary to get, at times, parts that can’t or don’t contribute.

Here are a few Sunday morning thoughts and notes for your consideration.

Some things will be fine.

  • Don’t focus on Dallas Keuchel. He’ll be fine. He set a very high bar in 2015 and he may never consistently be that pitcher. The good news is that he doesn’t have to be — or shouldn’t have to be — if the other pieces of the puzzle fit and carry their load.
  • Carlos Correa is still the wrecking-ball-in-waiting. Yes, Jose Altuve is still the king of the hill of sorts, often carrying the team. As soon as he breaks the sophomore jinx, Correa will join George Springer and Altuve as one of the most potent 1-2-3 punches in the league (if they aren’t already there).

Some things never change.

  • Jason Castro will not be a significant contributor at the plate. He hasn’t lived up to that forecast and will likely never match the first round (#10) pick the Astros used in that draft.
  • Luis Valbuena ain’t the answer. In fact, it’s somewhat difficult to figure out the question on him. At 30, is he past the late-blooming window?
  • Will Harris is just a machine. Wind him up and point him in the right direction. Boom!
  • Ditto Altuve. Is it time to start drawing analogies to Craig Biggio?

Some things won’t change without change.

  • Hitting. Yep, something has to give.
    • Why don’t the Astros hit in crucial situations?
    • A 7-10 record in one-run games doesn’t bode well for a team hoping to contend.
    • Third in extra base hits in the league doesn’t help much if you’re last in the league in batting average (.239).
    • Will the Astros wait until the break to make a change?
  • Too many holes. The corners are still a problem. After the top three, the drop-off is of cliff proportions. But which of the holes do you try to fix now with limited resources?
  • Even is Keuchel, Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers Jr. get “right”, what to do with the rest of the rotation?
    • Can’t expect all five or six of the current staff to suddenly fall into line.
    • Is Keuchel really the long-term #1? Ummm, didn’t expect that question?
  • Time to fish or cut bait? I’ll just throw out a few names.
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136 responses to “King of the hill: Easier to get there than stay there”

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  1. All I know is I am drastically walking back my lofty win prediction from earlier.

    I cannot see anyone in the in Fresno who is the answer for now. What happened to Reed, who is our first baseman of the future? No one in the outfield. Catching prospect? Ha ha, you make me laugh. Maybe Bregman will become the third baseman. Correa needs to release some of the hot air between his ears so his head can come back to size.

    Altuve was hitting well in the leadoff slot then Hinch/Luhnow have to move him to second and he begins a slump. Happened last year also. I get why they want him batting second but he does not respond well to it.

    I do hope Gomez has some luck when he returns. He needs to collect some trade value quickly.

    When all is said and done, Altuve might be better than Biggio, sans the hr power.

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    • Altuve actually started his slump while leading off which gave Hinch the excuse to put Springer in the first spot where he has excelled now and in the past. Springer himself has said he takes a different approach when leading off emphasizing getting on base and lo and behold he became a better hitter altogether. I don’t see much in Springer’s MLB history that shows him to be the middle of the order producer everyone wants him to be but if he ends up being one of if not the most dangerous lead off hitters in the game I think that’s a good thing. Altuve has really been bitten by the BABIP gods lately and when they start to shine on him again I think him in the second slot is better for the team and will work out fine for him.

      I’m hoping Kemp will stick when Gomez comes back but I’m doubtful. I would prefer to see Marisnick sent down to see if someone at Fresno can teach him how to make some contact. No one here has been able to do it.

      Another thing that I think would help this year and definitely in the future is to put Springer in center field and leave him there. Can you see any of the current CF pretenders being here next year? He is the only CF capable outfielder who is likely to be here next year so why not put him in his natural position now and let him play? I bet he would become better overall. For now put Rasmus in right, Kemp and Gomez in left hitting 9th and let Gomez go as soon as he shows enough life that some other team will take him off our hands for a case of sunflower seeds or a rookie league prospect.

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  2. Altuve = Biggio? Heck, I was thinking the other day Altuve = Joe Morgan!
    In his age 26 season, Altuve now has 718 games. Morgan had 731 games through his age 26 season.So roughly comparable on that basis. Altuve has 180 more hits, significantly more doubles, SB and total bases than Morgan in that period. Morgan was superior in BB, triples and OBP, but that’s about it.

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    • Whichever way you look at it – Altuve is playing great offensive ball for a 2B. And he is doing it while being even smaller than Morgan or Bidge who are both smaller guys themselves.

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  3. ******* Altuve…..picked….off….A G A I N ******
    I’m sorry………somebody needs time off for this crap. That’s *3* days in a row one of our guys gets picked off!! GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

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  4. I posted earlier that Gomez was spotted wearing glasses yesterday in Corpus. If he had his vision checked in Corpus, and needed glasses, that would be HUGE!! That could be his problem at the plate…..and it could pay off BIG time, if he was having a hard time seeing the ball! We will see soon enough, he’s meeting the team in Arizona Tuesday. I’m still stewing about Altuve getting picked off for the second day in a row.

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  5. Howdy Chip – hope you are having a great holiday weekend!
    Yes it is either to roll down the hill than to climb up to the summit.
    The hitting drives me crazy. (Coaching) I don’t see positive changes in approach. (Coaching) I don’t see guys hitting better here than their career numbers (Coaching)
    It was nice to see old Keuchel appear last night. They need a lot more of that.
    They need to tell Springer to approach hitting in the second spot just like he does in the lead off.

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  6. Just when we thought Giles had turned the corner he gets another blown save/lead. They just can’t keep losing games like this. It’s starting to not be early any more.

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  8. Well at least they tied it – but lost another runner on the bases.
    I hated that in the previous inning we have a guy on 1st and 3rd and 1 out and hit into a DP, while the Angels in the same situation score two runs.

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  9. If Hinch had put Feliz in….instead of Giles, this game would have never been tied.
    If they end up losing this game, it will ALL rest on Giles and Hinch. He had a better choice, I don’t know why he didn’t use it. They deserve to lose a game where you have the bases loaded…..and couldn’t even get a fly ball. Disgusting.

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  10. Well, they won. But I agree with Becky, I feel a lot more comfortable with Feliz out there than Giles.
    I don’t understand the obsession in going after Giles when they already had VV and Feliz. Luhnow doesn’t have any faith in his minor leagues.
    I’m terrified he’s going to go on another trading spree.

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  11. Sandy……you can bet Luhnow is gonna trade some more guys. OF that I am 100% sure. It only Luhnow would let Giles go to Corpus to get himself back on track, he would really benefit from it. I hate to see him go to Fresno, because they are doing very well with Hoyt as their closer. What I can NOT get over is getting picked off TWICE today!! G O O D L O R D !! This has GOT to stop! Folks these guys have been picked off *15* times so far!!
    I’m glad they got the win today, but it was sloppy.

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  13. Remember when we were a bad team and we used to look at the minor league box scores and gaze in wonder at what Correa was doing? Well, that home run reminded me of those days.
    I have never been so happy to see Pat Neshek walk two guys as I was today. That was a real smart thing to do.
    If the Astros are home, does Marisnick make that catch against the right center field fence? I think he does because there would be no sun in his eyes.
    How many times has Altuve gotten four hits in an Astros win, and not been the hero?
    If Gattis doesn’t commit his interference error and Valbuena doesn’t commit his error, Fister would have glided into the seventh with a low pitch count and we probably wouldn’t have even seen Giles out there today, and he wouldn’t have been out there to suck so bad.
    Feliz was clutch again and got the win.
    Won the last two games of a road trip after looking terrible in game 1.
    Tony Kemp will never be happier about being pinch hit for.
    JFSF hit two balls and one third baseman very hard today.
    Correa says it was his “best day off ever”.
    Gregerson kept feeding Giavotella slider after slider in that last at bat and the little guy kept fouling them off. He never saw that fastball coming.
    Kemp was only 1 for five at the plate today, but his stolen base was huge, especially with all the failures on the bases his teammates had this series.

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    • Old Pro…..you’re a true baseball man, and you completely summed up this whole game in your post! As ticked off as I was with the crappy base running gaffs, I still love this team! Giles will figure it out, and I hope the rest of the guys will stop doing stupid stuff trying to win the game! 😢😢

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  14. That was a big win. That’s 2 straight road series wins. If only they didn’t get swept by the Rangers at home, but eventually we have to slay that dragon. Let’s carry this over and win 3 of 4 in the home and home series against AZ.

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  15. Good to see ‘Jake from State Farm’ swinging a bat in place of ‘Jake from the State Hospital’.

    Good to see Jose Altuve driving a 4 x 4.

    Good to see Valbuena get on base 4 times.

    Good to see Tyler White get on base 3 times.

    Good to see Tony Kemp get his first stolen base – and score a run as a result

    Good to see Correa make the best of a ‘day off’.

    Good to see the team win despite a lot of sloppy play, another 10 K day, and a suddenly inept-again bullpen [except for Feldman and Feliz].

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  16. Some more good stuff from the Angels series:
    Moran broke out of his slump Friday night with 2 hits and 2 RBIs.
    Altuve broke out of his slump.
    Castro delivered a game winning hit with his two-run homer.
    Marisnick broke out of his two month long slump.
    Correa produced a win with a huge home run.
    Gattis caught a 13 inning game and we won it. and he threw out a base runner stealing, and had 2 hits and scored 2 runs from the catcher position. I repeat, from the catcher position. That adds great value to the team.
    The Astros won a road series from an AL West competitor and gained some ground in the division.

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    • It may work out in our favor. They won 100 games in 2015 and will not win as many in 2016. Losing picks/money closer to the top will hurt more.

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    • Since he pleaded guilty why do they need to wait for the sentencing to complete their investigation? I guess they are afraid that if they come forward with punishment that might unduly influence the other sentencing?

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  18. The Baseball Gods love the Cardinals, not our stros. Selig and now Manfred. I’m thinking Crane and Uncle Jeff may be viewed as baseball pariah.

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  19. Thank yous go out today all who have served us and gave the ultimate price for their fellow Americans. That includes my Great Uncle Leroy Klug who died in the War in the Pacific. We owe all of you more than we can say.

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  20. Lefty Edwin Escobar has been brought up by Arizona to face the Astros tonight. The only time any of the Astros have faced him would be a three inning start by Escobar for Reno against Fresno this past May 2nd.
    Based on his career stats and that one game game I would expect to see mostly right handed batters in the lineup against him and the Astros will use their scouting and their stat guys, but also talk to Moran, Marisnick and Kemp, who faced him in that game.
    The Diamondbacks have done their homework regarding Houston, as the Astros are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball against LH pitching again this year, and that is because several of the Astros who started off hot against everybody, like White and Correa, really cooled down by the time teams started throwing lefty pitchers against us.
    I definitely expect to see Gattis at DH, Marisnick in the OF, and White at 1B tonight. Castro probably will be catching, with Gattis having played 13 innings yesterday behind the plate.
    Of course, who knows? That’s just how I see it.

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  22. Next opponent: The Arizona Diamondbacks.
    Record: 23-29 [in the extremely tough NL West]

    How do they measure up?
    They are 5th in the major leagues in team BA [we are presently 27th]
    They are 5th in the MLB in runs scored [we are 19th]
    They are 7th in the MLB in team OBP [we are presently 21st]
    They are 2nd in the MLB in total bases [we are presently 14th]
    They have the 10th highest amount of strikeouts [the bad kind]; we have the most in the major leagues.
    They have the 4th highest save-recorded percentage in the MLB; our % is 21st of 30 teams

    We are a little better than them statistically in some categories:
    They are 10th in the MLB in HRs [we are 7th]
    They are 15th in the MLB in drawing walks [we are 4th]
    They are 6th in the MLB in stolen bases [we are 2nd]
    They are 26th in team ERA [we are 22nd]
    Their pitching staff is the 3rd worst in the MLB in BAA; we are 8th worst
    Their pitchers have the next-to-worst team WHIP in the majors [1.46]; we are in teh middle of the pack at 15th [1.33]
    Our pitchers are 14th in the MLB in SOs; theirs are 19th

    Individually, neither team has any player in the top ten in the MLB in BA, Slugging, OPS, HRs or RBIs.
    As far as OBP goes, Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt is 7th in the MLB with .419.
    Altuve and Segura are tied for 3rd in the league in hits with 65 apiece.
    As far as doubles, Altuve is in the top 10 with 18; Arizona is unrepresented.
    As far as times on base, Goldschmidt leads all players in the league with 96 (48 hits, 48 walks]. Altuve is 2nd in the league with 94 [65 hits, 29 BBs]

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  23. For a team that is 7 games under .500, Doug Fister’s starts are pretty good. A #5 starter, his ten starts have resulted in a 7-3 record. The Astros have won all 6 of his starts in May.

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  24. Colby Rasmus with a .167 BA / .549 OPS against lefties should not be hitting cleanup against a lefty.
    Don’t these stat centric folks pay attention to basics?

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    • Until Gomez returns, they don’t have another RH hitting outfielder. Maybe they figure Rasmus has a better chance to hit this lefty than Kemp does. Kemp struck out both times facing him in Fresno.

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  25. Note to Astros pitchers:
    Walk Goldie…..or he’s gonna hurt you. Case in point first inning homerun today.

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  27. Astros have their lucky offense going – Castro with a bloop to left, Springer with an excuse me check swing to right and Bourn turning an Altuve hit into a Springer run scored from first.
    3-1 Astros!!

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  30. This is the type of hitting team I envisioned before the season began. We didn’t get to see a lot of the Astros’s starting position players in the spring, but they all hit for good batting averages. Once the season began they just all started swinging for the fences.
    Even on that last out, Marisnick swung for contact with twwo strikes on him and smashed the ball right to Goldschmidt.. I love line drives! Look how many have fallen in today vs the one that was caught.

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  32. And….that is the FIRST complete game Collin McHugh has EVER had as a major league pitcher!! CLAP! CLAP! CLAP!!! Way to go Mchugh!!

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  35. Once we get back to our AL schedule it will be interesting to see who gets moved to DH. I am personally expecting Gomez to spend a lot of games at DH. If that’s the case, Marisnick will still play against lefties, and Kemp will still play against righties. Or the FO may decide to send Kemp down and bring up Matt Duffy for another shot- since he is both a right handed hitter and a guy who can get hot, and serve as both a 3B/1B guy Duffy has been pretty hot lately, after a terrible start.

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  36. Gattis at Corpus: .375/.405/1.205, with 5 HR and 10 RBI
    Gomez at Corpus: .250/.286/.686 with 1 HR and 1 RBI

    I am not sure the rehab stint did as much for Go-Go as it did for Gattis.

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    • I’m pretty sure that’s not a fair comparison.
      Gattis wasn’t hurt and wasn’t rehabbing. Gomez was.
      Gattis played 8 games and had 40 ABs.
      Gomez played 3 games and had 20 ABs.

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      • I agree it is not a fair comparison – although I am not at all sure Gomez was any more physically injured than Gattis was. My point was not that it was a ‘fair comparison’. My point was that Gomez didn’t exactly tear up AA pitching [.250/.286/.686], so no one should expect him to come back tearing up MLB pitching. He’s back with the team. He’s the guy the FO is paying big bucks, so he’s the guy who Hinch will find a place to play. We will grit our teeth and root for him because he wears an Astro uniform, and in the end that is all that reakkt matters. But he’s going to have to prove he’s more than a 7-hole filling, free-swinging, out-making trash talker at some point in his career, or that career – in Houston at least – will be short-lived.

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  37. Someone asked about Reed earlier. He was 3-5 tonight with a double, an RBI and a run scored and was hitting in front of Singleton, who was 0-4. Reed is up to .258 and is starting to hit the baseball after being hurt. His BABIP is still below .300 so he can still get hot, like he did last season. Reed is still 3.8 years younger than his competition in AAA, and had the second highest BA on the Grizzlies, so you know they are facing some good pitching. I think he’s going to be fine.

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  38. The win was nice and the team is definitely playing better, but darn it if every AL West team didn’t also get a win yesterday. They will just have to keep winning and let the rest take care of itself. After this week looms the big 4 game series against our daddies in the Temple of Doom. I think that series will tell us if they are getting back in this race or not.

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  40. I can’t emphasize enough what a big boost the complete game by Colin McHugh was to this team and bullpen. You had a Sunday game that went 13 innings and used every reliever other than Devinski, who had just pitched 4+ innings the other night. If I am not mistaken, Hinch never even had anyone warm up on Monday, which is real rest for these guys.
    Now all they need to do is hold on to the leads, so they don’t end up in 13 inning death matches.
    I agree with Tim – they have to beat the Rangers, they have to get this dominance out of their heads and take care of business. But they need to kick the D’Backs bottoms today, first.

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  41. The next couple of days Fresno will have the two starters going whose stats indicate they would be the two starting pitchers who could help the Astros out this season, Musgrove and Rodgers. Musgrove versus Musgrave today for Fresno is interesting, just for the confusion..
    Brady Rodgers standard stats are deceiving, but his advanced stats are very promising for a 25 year old AAA starter. Great K rate, low BB rate. The only thing that has hurt him this year is bad luck, as he has a .352 BABIP against him. If that evens out, and command does have some bearing on that, he could turn out to be a decent BOR pitcher.
    Musgrove just needs more AAA innings to tell us something.
    Hoyt appears to be ready and Gustave’s advanced stats say he is getting there.

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    • Nice update on prospects. I was trying to think who could really make a difference on the 2017 team. All I came up with was Musgrove and Bregman.

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      • Rodgers and Hoyt were the two pitchers who took on learning a new pitch in the off-season and those pitches have led to real good results, especially in the K rates. Rodgers has worked on throwing strikes and, at age 25 now appears to need only to be putting his pitches in batters cold zones.
        Musgrove just needs innings. His command and control seem to be there, but he just needs to start grinding out more innings to prove he has the arm and stamina to last on the mound on the major league level.
        Gustave has stuff. He needed to control it and seems to have taken a big step in that direction with big drops in BB rate. What’s left now is to be able to repeat his delivery consistently so that he can trust himself to put that fastball and wipe-out breaking pitch where they need to be on individual hitters.
        The Astros are in a real good position to allow Gustave to develop. Their current bullpen is pretty solid and they have Hoyt to close in AAA and be ready to make the jump in case the Astros need help. Gustave can pitch and work and try to keep improving and If Hoyt gets called up, then Gustave can start closing and get a call up to the bigs in September because he is already on the 40-man. In that scenario, Gustave and Hoyt could help the bullpen in September so that their regular relievers would be more rested for the playoffs. Last year the Astros had no one in AAA that they trusted in the bullpen in AAA.

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  42. The lineup is out and the only LH batter in the lineup is VB playing 3B. Gattis is catching, White at 1B, Marisnick in LF and Gomez in CF. Altuve, Correa and Springer are in their usual spots.

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  43. I listened to Matt Thomas on the 10th inning show yesterday, and I have to agree with him on Gomez. The next two weeks will probably tell the tale for Gomez. “IF” he goes back to his April, May self…….he’s more than likely gone. It’s been very interesting to see how well this team has played in his absence. I’m not saying his presence is a big distraction, but still it makes you go hmmm. He’s probably going to be under the microscope for the next few weeks, and I assume Luhnow is working the phones to see who needs a centerfielder NOW. What really ticks me off is if HE goes bust, that will make all three of the big trades from last season a bust, and thinking of the high prospects we gave up makes me sick. In case you’re interested go see what Josh Hader’s….Era is. Surprised? Nope.

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      • I wouldn’t say the trades have killed us as none of the players traded we’re going to offer much help to the Astros this year. We will have to wait and see if the trades kill us down the road.

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      • Still, I’d rather have those prospects in the organization than what we ended up with. Kazmir gone, Gomez under producing.
        I could go on

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      • I used to think that way Tim. I only agree that Luhnow/Hinch would not have utilized those players.

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      • VV is not killing us down the road, he is killing us now. Santana will probably finish the year better than Gomez – and he would have pushed Springer to CF, something most chipians want. The trades are killing us today.

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      • And Perez is more value than Conger ever was. Add Tropeano to that.

        Imagine this staff without Fister – who hasn’t been bad lately but had some stinkers early – minus Feldman – and we were able to spend that 37 mil between the two elsewhere, with VV and Nitro and Folty all vying for spots in an open competition.

        The trades have been bad, now, not down the road – where they look to become even worse.

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      • Sorry, Steven, but Tropeano has an xFIP near 5 and a WHIP near 1.50. Santana has a WAR of -0.4 to -0.5 for Gomez and Perez has been horrible at the plate this year. VV, like Devin stated, probably wouldn’t be pitching for us this year. Those trades are not killing us yet, no matter how you want to spin it.

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      • It’s not spin to point out that Perez has given the Angels more than Conger gave us. Picking his short sample .200 batting average this year doesn’t discredit his contributions over the course of the trade – and its been more than a league average hitter – its the defense to boot. Throw in a pitcher that is 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts – i got it his FIP may claim some luck, it would help if he threw more strikes – but effective none the less so far, and to think we got a year of HANK F’N CONGER for that. We lost that trade even if Perez and Nitro stopped playing right now – the Angels simply got more value out what they got then what we got – but thats not the case since those two young players are showing that they are big leaguers for the long haul, even if they are league average, we got a year of below league average out of it.

        The Giles trade is not even a question. It’s a loss. I said right here on Chips site multiple times as far back as 3 years ago this kid was a bonafide stud and future Cy Young contender – if he stays healthy. That was a big if, but no relief pitcher, even Kimbrel himself, would be worth giving up that potential to me. He lost that trade unless VV’s arm does indeed fall off and Giles is just fooling me with that 96 mph straight as an arrow fastball.

        Gomez probably will not be an Astro next year. If he bounces back and has a solid second half, with injury as his lull reason, he prices himself out of Cranes range. If he doesn’t, no way we bring him back. Its the Kobyashi Maru, or the 2016 election, We can’t win. I’ve never been sold on Santana or Phillips, I’m on record on that one too, but even if Gomez has a superb second half (in his standards, which isn’t MVP just good) – we gave up 3 highly rated prospects to pay Gomez alot of money to be good for half a season – IF he is going to be good for half a season.

        Luhnow has been taken to the woodshed by more experienced, and better, GM’s. His talent and experience running minor leagues shows in drafts (or does it?)- but his weakness in trades, and lack of experience in those dealings, has cost us – possibly the joy of watching what could have become a dominating team that could have guys like Folty, VV, and Nitro competing for 4 and 5 spots in our rotation instead of watching Fiers stink, Gomez stink, and have to give 37 mil to free agent starters that are inconsistent at best.

        And to think I talked about mostly just the trades from a major league prospective, I didn’t even delve into the minor leaguers he traded because I understand the argument is current value, but he has given away a lot of potential future value for other teams spare part players that have under performed – there is always a reason a team is ready to part with Fiers and Gomez after all.

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      • You’re right on the Conger trade, but wrong on the Giles trade. Of course, I expected it from you being short-sighted in your assessment of the players in such a SSS. However, the point remains that those trades have not hurt us this year. We are better off with Castro over Perez and Fister over Tropeano. Sorry, it is the truth as much as it hurts.

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      • If we hadn’t done the Giles trade the only player who would be on the 25-man roster is VV and he would have been in the bullpen, instead of Feliz. Feliz has put up a 0.5 WAR in the bullpen and we would have probably gotten similar results from VV. My point, again, is that these trades very well may hurt us down the road, but they are not hurting us this year. Of course, we don’t know what Giles, VV or any of the players traded will do going forward. We can only discuss what they have done, to date, in the major leagues.

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    • Becky, the pitcher we got in trade for Jonathan Villar has been pitching very well in AA for Corpus. Cy Sneed is 23 and his standard stats and his advanced stats all look pretty good. His best stats to look at are his great K rate vs his very low BB rate. His ERA is good but his FIP is a real good 2.66. That makes him trailing only Paulino among starters on CC. Someone to anticipate contributing by the middle of 2017 or the beginning of 2018. I think that trade could work out for the Astros.

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  48. OK being snarky, but Gomez looks like he hasn’t missed a day as he strikes out swinging his first time out. Meanwhile Jake Marisnick (who they said has gotten rid of his leg kick) is a new man hitting.

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  50. Holy guacamole Batman! Springer adds a 3 run homer to his double in the first inning! He will never bat anywhere but leadoff again. 3-2 Astros!!!! (And LMJ had a single to keep the inning going).

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