OK, this ain’t working! Now what!

The Astros’ four-game losing streak, where they followed three “close but no cigar” 2-1 losses with a 9-2 meltdown, is in the bank as a negative deposit. They have sunk to ten games out in the division race and 8.5 back in the second wild card chase. They have lapsed into poor offensive habits and the cherry on the cake is that their ace, Dallas Keuchel is pitching more like a joker these days. They don’t seem to be having fun, showing much life or even showing anger at the situation. So the question is ….Now what?

There are plenty of actions that could be taken, but which ones, if any will result in positive results in either the short or the long-term?

Dump hitting coach Dave Hudgens.

This will not solve the problem of having so many high K, low contact hitters on the roster. But for the last two season and a quarter, it is hard to point at any hitter not named Jose Altuve, who has shown improvement. Colby Rasmus? Well he is leading the team with 31 RBIs, but he is only hitting .238 BA / .781 OPS – not great BA and OK OPS. Tyler White? It seems the longer he was under Hudgens the more he hit like everybody else on the team. Carlos Correa? He is far under-producing in his sophomore season, striking out more and knocking in a lot less clutch runs. And on and on….

Dump manager A.J. Hinch.

So, is he a worse manager because the choices he makes are resulting in worse performances or are the worse performances making his choices look bad? Will it make a difference replacing him or will the next manager be a front office puppet just as everyone suspects Hinch is? The lineup decisions seem to drive everyone crazy with the way veterans (Luis Valbuena, Carlos Gomez, etc) can fail forever, while young players like White are not allowed to work out of slumps. Can the manager overcome the type of players he is given and produce better results? Hinch seemed to do this in 2015 and now is taking the blame for not doing it in 2016.

Send GM Jeff Luhnow packing.

OK, we know this is not happening at this point in the season, but this has to be on the table if the team heads into the off-season as lost and dead as they are now.

Start the Fire Sale.

The Astros have sets of veterans who are either not performing well or who will be up for a new contract or free agency at the end of the season. Most of these players were never part of the long-term plans for the team. But they should be under consideration for heading elsewhere in return for restocking the prospects or bringing in a specific need with the big team. Players who could be considered include, Rasmus, Valbuena, Gomez,  Jason Castro, Pat Neshek, Luke Gregerson, Mike Fiers, Doug Fister Tony Sipp and Scott Feldman.

Dallas Keuchel should not be traded at the bottom of his value. They really should be making sure he is not hiding an injury. Collin McHugh is still cheap and under control for a while. Carlos Correa can not be touched at his age and talent. George Springer would require being part of a blockbuster trade to make it worthwhile.

Let More Youngsters Have a Shot

This is likely going to take a little time, but at some point A.J. Reed is going to be ready (we pray). What about Joseph Musgrove, James Hoyt, Reymin Guduan, Thomas Shirley, Alex Bregman, Derek Fisher, David Paulino or Brendan McCurry?

The questions for you are:

  • Which way or ways would you want the organization to go?
  • Which way or ways do you think they will go?
  • Is there anything above that you think can save a putrid 2016 from continuing to occur?
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407 responses to “OK, this ain’t working! Now what!”

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  1. We all know that Luhnow nor Hinch will be gone during the season. But the coaches… I feel Luhnow will be sent packing if the team loses 95+ games.

    I want the organization to dump the sabremetrics system as a go-to gospel. It can be an addendum to the game and player development/choice but not as the do-all, be-all. Put REAL baseball people in upper management, nor people from careers completely devoid of baseball experience. Under the current organizational thought, any of you or I could the management staff. Adopt the “see ball, hit ball” approach and dump the pitch ball to contact approach. And, for goodness sake, get the players’ head into the games and catch the ball, throw the ball, do not run into outs on the bases from throws or pickoffs!

    The management will not change anything and will ride this broken back came into the ground, then try to pick it up and ride it even deeper. Luhnow’s ego will prevent any type of turnaround.

    The season is beyond saving now. Next to last in the American League in winning percentage, no chance of winning the division nor the wild card. The Angels are bad because they have adopted the mantra of the Astros’ previous regime… buy older players and tie them up with long term, expensive contracts. The Astros should bring the youngsters up and let them learn, but NOT under Hudgens nor Strom. Send those guys packing.

    Strange how the sports gawds are. Last year, all of the Houston professional teams, Astros, Texans, and Rockets, made the playoffs. This season, the Rockets and the Astros are paying for it. I do hope the Texans can avoid it.

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    • Shucks, I proof read this and it still came out wrong…

      First sentence should read, “We all know that Luhnow nor Hinch will be NOT BE gone during the season.”

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      • Are you sure you did not mean “will not be gone…” rather than “will be not be gone”?
        I have the same problem – my proofreader is me and sometimes that is not a good thing….

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  2. Step One: Hudgens has to go, and he has to go now. You cannot NOT fire the hitting coach when you have an offense full of historically very good hitters that projected as WS favorites this year totally embarrass itself for two full months, being absolutely horrendous with two strikes and/or with RISP.

    Some say – ‘but it’s the pitching!!!’ I agree, the pitching hasn’t been great. But three straight 2-1 losses were not the result of problems with the pitching.

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  3. Oh well – your thought process still comes through, sarge. It is the $64,000 question – will the team make a change during the season. They did with both Brad Mills and Bo Porter, but in both cases much later in the season.
    We don’t know where Jim Crane is on all this. Is he holding Jeff Luhnow accountable? Is Luhnow able to explain how the mess is not a mess?

    The next big move will say a lot about the direction of the team. Whether it is Hinch going, Luhnow going or both going (or both staying) – we will know a lot more about what the owner thinks about the Plan, if there is one.

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    • About Jim Crane, I feel he is all about the money right now and will remain so until the loan that he received to buy the team gets substantially paid off. Meanwhile, Jeff is casting his spell about how the team can improve even more with more time. “Mess? What mess? We don’t have no stinking mess!”

      No big moves until after the end of the current season.

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  4. The only thing that can save this season is a long winning streak right now.
    That would allow the team to get back into the AL West and give them a chance to finish the job by going on from there and finishing ten games over .500.
    I don’t think they have the horses to do that.
    I think they should fire Hudgens and hire a batting coach from within the club’s current organization.
    Then they should fire Luhnow and let Nolan run the team through the draft and trade season and then hire a new GM and let that guy decide the coaching situation.
    Let Nolan make the trades of the older players and decide who goes and who comes up. After he does that, he can spend the rest of the season finding a GM who has a new shared vision with the owner and Nolan Ryan, who is President of baseball operations.
    Trade Castro by the deadline for a couple of solid prospects or a decent outfielder with some controllable years.
    Trade Valbuena for whatever you can get in prospects.
    Trade Gomez for whatever you can get.
    Trade Gregerson for a couple of good prospects or a catcher with some controllable years.
    Trade Neshek for whatever you can get.
    Trade Feldman for prospects.
    Trade Fister for prospects.
    Trade Rasmus for whatever prospects you can get.
    Bring up Heineman to share catching with Gattis.
    Bring up Reed to play 1B.
    Move Springer to CF after the trades are made and play Marisnick in RF and Tucker and Kemp in LF.
    Bring Duffy up to play 3B and send Moran back down to finish the year in AAA.
    Let White finish the year at DH, with Kemp to play some DH occasionally.
    Bring up Hoyt and Gustave to replace the traded relievers.
    Replace Fister with Feliz in the rotation. Finish the year with McCullers, Keuchel, McHugh, Feliz and Fiers. Let Nolan decide which AAA starter replaces Feldman in the bullpen.
    There is a choice keep the expensive guys or get what you can, while you can.
    Next year you have Musgrove and Shirley to add to the mix in the Rotation
    Next year you have Duffy and Moran and Bregman to choose from at 3B.
    You have all offseason to fix your outfield.
    You have all offseason to load up your bullpen with flamethrowers instead of finesse guys.
    And you have the guys you got in the trades.

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  5. Posted this on the tail end of the last thread instead of here. Sorry if any of you had to read my rambling twice Because I was late to the party…

    It just seems to me like it is time to start playing baseball on the field instead of on the computer. Everybody seems to believe that BA is not the best measure of hitting performance. While that is certainly true when evaluating an individual player’s ability, it is not as true when evaluating/assembling a team. The team has to have the right components, A walk is not the same thing as a hit in regards to the potential to drive in runs. A walk is not going to drive in a run unless the bases are loaded. A strikeout is not the same thing as an out when the ball is put in to play. A strikeout does not advance runners. The players on this team with the exception of Altuve simply do not put the ball in play enough. If I am not mistaken, the concept of Moneyball was made famous by Billy Beane to identify the best cheapest player available because he couldn’t afford the players who were obviously the best. The Astros have ignored the concept of needing a balance of player strengths in the lineup. How about trying for a lineup where 3 excel at getting on base, 3 excel in BA, and 3 can knock the snot out of the ball? Unfortunately, other than Altuve, we have guys that can walk, strikeout, and do knock the snot out of the ball at a decent rate. But those HRs occur less than 5% of their ABs if you figure 600 ABs and 30 HR. So we have 1 that excels in BA, about 4 that can knock the snot out of the ball, and a revolving door of guys filling the other 4 slots that can’t do any of the 3 and simply can not implement situational hitting.

    I think the reason players like Duffy and Tucker get “ruined” in Houston is because their heads get filled with numbers that makes them timid at the plate instead of just trying to put the ball in play to get a hit or at least advance the runner. Based on prior history of except for the top round draft picks Springer and Correa, they know they will be sent down at the first signs of struggle and it makes them try to do too much. So then they get sent down, and their confidence and hopes are destroyed. So, I don’t think the hitting outcomes are going to change until the organization’s input on how they want players to hit changes and how they use players when they are called up. That will require a change in philosophy at the GM level.

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    • I read it both places Nance and enjoyed it twice. I think the basic point – this is real life, not computerized fantasy baseball is key. Plus it sure seems like the players are over-thinking rather than doing. I don’t seem the natural talent coming through as much as I expect it to.

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      • It just appears that something or somebody is handcuffing our hitters. In some cases it is the likes of Cole Hamels and Chris Sale. But in too many instances, we make less than average starting pitchers look like Cy Young contenders. I place that on some combination of hitting coach, manager, and the person who hired them and is telling them how to do their jobs. Without being in the dugout, I cannot know what percentages of blame to assign where. But the GM is ultimately accountable to the owner for all of it. Something that I haven’t seen mentioned – was the loss of David Stearns more significant than anybody realized? Carter, Villar, and Santana seem to have improved in his organization.

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      • I point to the Alejandro Rojas game [game 2 of the recent Rangers’ series] as a case in point. Rojas has been a reliever for Texas. He was given his first major league opportunity to start because the Rangers seem to believe [with good reason] that Astro batting philosophy prevents anyone not named Jose Altuve from making good contact against left-handed pitchers. Most teams in the AL West will destroy Alejandro Rojas. Against us, he dominated.

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  7. It should be obvious to everyone that Dallas Keuchel needs to go to DL. He doesn’t need to throw another MLB game until he is checked out fully, and gets at least 3 rehab starts at AA. He was not even this bad [ERA 5.92, WHIP 1.59] in 2012 or 2013, when he was adjusting to the league. His BAA this year is .294 [last year it was .217]. His OBPA is .362 [last year it was 100 percentage points lower, at .262].

    His significantly lower velocity and obvious loss of command justify a shoulder exam and rehab.

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  8. Isn’t there an MLB computer game? If so management can play that, but we need some real baseball people. Someone who knows the game, talent, people, and how to get the most out of them.
    There is a joke about appearance and reality but it’s “R” rated so I won’t expound on it. Kind of like the analogy about substance and form. However, in this case it would be very apropos.
    Remember if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck it’s probably a duck. Don’t ask me to tell you it’s a chicken. And the emperor has no clothes. I have more cliches than Carter has pills so I’ll digress and refrain.

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  9. Just a ‘spoiler alert’ note about new Corpus Christi Hooks outfielder Alejandro Garcia. It has just been 3 games and 12 ABs, but the Cuban outfielder already has 6 hits. Starting a AA career at .500 with a 1.083 OPS is worthy of note. Alejandro va!

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    • To put this in context, Jake Marisnick has played in 24 games, and has 45 PAs, and still has yet to record his sixth hit.

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  10. Regarding bringing up youngsters [Reed, Musgrove, etc.]. I do not personally want to see any more youngsters brought up to the Astros until there is a change in coaching and philosophy. This group ruins everything and everyone it touches.

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    • Is changing the hitting coach and firing the GM, before you bring them up, enough of a change in coaching and philosophy to suit your immediate needs?

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      • With a reliever, especially a closer, a hitter can be assured that the first pitch is probably the most hittable pitch he is going to see. That is because the closer’s main job is to throw strikes. For a closer, not only are walks unacceptable, but even pitching from behind is a mark of failure. Realizing that, as long as our hitters don’t chase on 0-0, I’m absolutely fine with first pitch swinging against a closer. If they go down in 4 pitches in the 9th, so be it. I’d rather that than have them take a called third [which our guys do way too often]. The problem I’ve seen with the Hudgens approach is that, especially against starters and middle relievers, the rule seems to be do not under any circumstances [unless you are Altuve] do NOT swing at the first pitch.

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      • Sound reasoning except that the first two hitters grounded out weakly to the pitcher on first pitches.

        If you can’t put a good swing on it, you are better off not trying to put a ball in play in that scenario.

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    • Only if the hitting coach that gets hired brings with him a new philosophy that makes hitting fun and natural for these guys again. The current philosophy of ‘always-always-take-to-the-first-strike, and do-nothing-different-with-2-strikes-against-you- and/or-runners-on-base-in-front-of-you-than-you-leading-off-with-the-ubiquitous 0-1 count our guys invariable begin with.

      If we were hitting relievers better than starters, it would at least make some sense to have our entire early innings strategy be to get the opposing starter’s pitch count up. But we don’t hit anybody – starters or relievers – esp. with RISP. The philosophy needs to be look for a pitch you can drive – and try to put it in a gap. With two strikes, try to frustrate the pitcher and prolong your at-bat by shortening your swing and fouling off marginal pitches so the pitcher either has to make a perfect pitch or walk you. Other teams we face invariably have 3-4 guys who do this regularly – and it takes a huge toll on both a pitcher and a defense.

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  11. You know what angers me more than anything else is when the bloggers on here, the Chronicle writers, and national sports writers can identify the problem with this team but all are ignored. Bran Smith has a SCATHING article in this mornings paper (you can read it for yourself) telling Jim Crane, that “you get what you pay for”. His piece goes further than ours about the lack of hitting on this club.

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  12. The next step for the ownership team after replacing Hudgens and putting a moratorium on call-ups until we find a new manager and a new, real-baseball instead of fantasy-baseball philosophy, is to issue an Order preventing Luhnow from trading any prospect other than Jon Singleton, Josh Fields, or Brad Peacock. Other than Big Jon and Brad, the only players he can offer for trade this year at any time are Gomez, Valbuena, Marisnick, Feldman, Fister, Neshek, Rasmus, and McHugh.

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  13. I cannot help but wonder to what level the Astros FO departs from the FO of teams like Chicago, St. Louis, Rangers, Balt, Boston..the good teams, with regards to management styles, sabremetrics, baseball knowledge..
    Is their approach significantly different from what the Stros are doing (aside from judging talent)?
    Reid Ryan surely gets input from his old man. Is he a non factor in how this franchise is performing ?
    I am in total agreement that the Astros coaches, managers..whoever….take guys that can surely play, and seem to get less out of them rather than more.
    All that said…..I’m not sure the current Astros roster really has any more than 2 or 3 standout talents. I know the org hails a number of them…but the truth is they cannot seem to consistently put the bat on the ball thus have low BA’s. That can never be good.
    I have been giving my seats away thus far . Hope I can get some enthusiasm to attend before the end of this season.

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    • TNT, about Reid’s input, he was hired to run the public relations side of the business, not the baseball side. Thus, he has no say in how the team on the field is handled. This is why I believe Ryan should be the president in charge of the baseball side, over Luhnow. As things sit now, Luhnow only answers to Crane.

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    • TNT, I think the big difference in our philosophy is that those other organizations get the players and hire a coaching staff that they think can win their division and take them to the world series. Our philosophy is that our GM thinks he has the power to get the team to the anticipated goals and hires coaches and players to do things his way or else, because he thinks his way is THE way.
      He knows more about players because he has more data, and he knows more about baseball because he has the ability to create even more data to stay ahead. Meanwhile, other teams just go about their business getting better players and hiring the best coaches money can by and winning with them or by developing their good young players to be the best and then making good baseball decisions when they need to fill in, instead of getting mediocre players and thinking they are going to perform better because of the data you are going to stuff their heads with.

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  15. I don’t know whether to blame the FO, coaches, or players. Last year, when Correa came up, he brought an advanced approach. With 2 strikes in particular he would take what was offered and line singles to RF. When pitcher’s made adjustments he would use a nice, inside out swing to take balls on the inner half that way. This year I see him swinging like Preston Tucker at those pitches with similar results. Tyler White started off right and then turned into a pop-up/K machine for the same reason.

    I think too many guys feel like a big HR is what they/the team needs to break out. Then when a game is close they tense up and become easy outs.

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  16. I read an article yesterday (somewhere) about the shifts and how it messes with the minds of the players. They’ve grown up playing their positions according to standard rules and get to this level and everything is changed. They find it difficult to rely on instincts when no one is playing where they’re supposed to be.

    There is just too much wrong here to fix. Especially when the FO won’t admit to their mistakes.

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  17. Does it do any good to replace the hitting coach, if the person who chooses the new hitting coach is the same one who hired the old hitting coach…..

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    • That was the point I was trying to make above in response to OP1’s question. It is not just the person – it’s having the authority to change the approach of the offense back to a pure-baseball approach. The only way a new batting coach without a change iin GM and Managerm works is if the new hitting coach has closer ties to the owner’s group than Jeff Luhnow does – and/or is a guy like Biggio, Bagwell, or maybe Berkman with make-or-break levels of fan-clout

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  18. Hudgens might end being the sacrifice, but I’ve always thought hitting coaches get too much of the credit when guys hit and too much of the blame when guys don’t. Most of our guys are simply mediocre or bad hitters. Check the lifetime stats.

    Interesting article about Jake by Jake Kaplan (new guy?) at Chron.com today. Jake notes that Jake hasn’t been able to nail down his timing. No kidding?

    Jake M is quoted: “You go through stretches like this all the time. If it’s in the middle of the season it’s not as big a deal”.

    Some of us might point out to Jake M that since May of 2015, he’s hitting .195 with a .244 OBP and a .572 OPS. He’s going through a pretty big stretch.

    Another quote by Jake: “I’ve never really let (offensive struggles) affect me on the defensive side. I know how important what I do out there in the field is and being able to help this team any way possible. I’ve said it before: Keeping a run off the board is the same as putting a run on”.

    That’s a nice thought by Jake, but even an average major league hitter will account for far more runs than the best defensive centerfielders in league history.

    I don’t know how many teams in MLB could justify having Jake Marisnick on their roster today. And I think Jake is in denial. Maybe a bunch of guys are, Luhnow and Hinch included. I think they think they are better than they really are.

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    • I think poor hitters were more prevalent than we recall from prior years. The biggest difference is that teams hoard bad hitters/pitchers on the 40 man…mainly to allow max incubation time for legit prospects.

      As to the hitting coach quality, it was plain to see that Castro has a hitch in his swing right after loading. He can hardly ever hit the mid to high, hard pitches because it impacts his timing. A real hitting coach should reduce long that hitch persists. I haven’t seen much bball the last two weeks and don’t know whether he fixed something or just got some pitches in better hitting zones.

      This assumes the player will listen. Gomez can’t hit anything over 92mph. A hitting coach would tell him to spoil all fastballs middle and in…and try to jump on pitches that speed up his bat. Instead, I think Springer told him to just swing harder and maybe he’ll catch up to the heat.

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  19. I have seen a lot of baseball players in my time. The only way I can compare Jake to anyone I have seen before is that he is Mickey Mantle without a bat.
    That said, I still wouldn’t get rid of him until another hitting coach has tried to work with him. Someone innovative and successful. That’s how good Jake’s other three baseball tools are, in my opinion. And that is why I haven’t talked about trading or releasing Marisnick.
    The first month of 2015 Marisnick was the best baseball player in the league. When he slumped, whoever was supposed to help him come out of it, really messed him up. Please hire someone who has the ability to help players who are struggling. Please!

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    • Yep, Jake can do everything that Mantle could, except the darn hitting. And maybe all that post game stuff The Mick excelled at. Now if Jake can learn to hit, he’ll end up with a longer career and likely a longer life. OP, Mantle was my first baseball hero as a kid.

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  21. So it’s Doug Fister [4.22 ERA, 1.29 WHIP] going up againt Baltimore’s Chris Tillman [2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP]. As usual, on paper we thus start the game about 3 runs behind. Tillman has been averaging over a strikeout per inning. Fister is averaging about half of that. Tillman’s BAA is .213. Fister’s is .258. Okay, so somebody wake me when it’s over.

    Mr. Crane, do you really expect anybody to pay to see – or enjoy watching – these kind of lopsided matchups?

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    • Yesterday’s game was the first game this season that I had the opportunity to watch and didn’t. I could not make myself watch our lineup attempt to hit Hamels after what I had seen the last few days. I actually watched 15 minutes of golf and watched Correa’s last at bat in the ninth on the DVR before deleting it.
      I have been around Hispanics all my life and had several years of Spanish in high school and have pronounced Carlos Correa’s name properly for several years. In the last week or so, my wife has had to correct me several times for pronouncing his name Korea and I have no clue what is going on there in my head. It feels so strange for this to happen. I hope I’m not stroking out, again (not to be confused with striking out).

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  22. Orioles vs. Astros: Coming into this series, the Orioles are hitting .262/.324/.774 as a team. The Astros are .229/.312/.713. They have hit more homers and of course scored more runs than us. But hey, we’ve walked more and have more stolen bases.

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  23. Frances Martes was pulled after three walks and two groundouts in the first inning against Midland. I sure don’t like that.

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  24. Lol, I was just watching VV on MLB.com. He’s having a problem with pitch count, but just started out the 4th inning with guys on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out and then got out of it, mixing change, 81 MPH curve and 96 FB. He walked off the mound, pounded his glove and the rest of the guys on the field, obviously pumped, ran off with a spring in their steps. We have Lance who will give us that, but damn, it would have been nice to have Vince in the rotation.

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  25. According to Twitter, Uncle Jeff just said on radio that it was realistic, possible, probable to be at or near .500 by the All Star Break because we haven’t seen streaks by CC or GS. I didn’t hear it myself. Just going by what somebody tweeted.

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      • I am in a depressed snarky mood so I am going to bet they have 27 wins total at the ASB.

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      • That kind of thinking is probably cause us to miss out on a lot of trade opportunities and really hinder the efforts of the club to compete next year. If we can get rid of $50million dollars worth of weak players, we could do anything we wanted this offseason.
        Rasmus 15.8 Tucker .5
        Neshek 6.5 Hoyt .5
        Gomez 9.0 Kemp .5
        Fister 7.0 Feliz .5
        Feldman 8.0 Musgrove .5
        Castro 5.0 Heineman .5
        Marwin 2.0 Bregman .5
        Valbuena 6.1 Moran .5
        Reed .5
        That is elininating 8 players costing $59.4 million and putting 9 young guys on the roster to replace them that I believe would do as good or better job job for $4.6million. I’m giving Sipp and Gattis the benefit of the doubt that they will somehow turn things around and be worth their salaries next year. But I seriously doubt that Sipp will be better than Shirley as a loogie next spring and there is another $5.5 million that could be saved.
        $65 million saved on next year’s payroll could sure bring us some more prospects in trade this summer and leave a ton of money to spend on players who could fill a hole or two in the offseason.
        Did I do OK? I forgot my top trade chip, Gregerson. As a closer he could really bring us two good prospects because he is not a rental. He has another year on his deal, so a contender who needs a really good reliever would offer a lot for a certified closer or late inning guy. That would save us another $6.0 million and Giles becomes the closer at a half million dollars and Gregerson gets us back some prospects we lost when we traded for Giles.
        One could argue that I am tearing the team down by trading these guys. But look at the names and remember their stats. Six of those guys are free agents this fall. Is there any one of those six you would offer a QO to and take a chance on paying them $16.1 million apiece for next year, because that is what a QO will be raised to next year. Marwin and Neshek would have one year left before they are free agents. Are they going to be how we’d be tearing down a franchise who has a losing record if they are traded? No!
        To people who might say I would be tearing the team apart I say that as long as I have Keuchel, McHugh, LMJ, Feliz, Fiers, Musgrove, Giles, Harris and Devenski, Hoyt, Gustave, and Shirley, I’ve got the same chance for a good staff as I have today. For $35 million less.
        For those who say I might be tearing the team apart, I say that as long as I have Reed, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Moran, Springer, White, Tucker, Kemp, Gattis Heineman, Davis, Fisher and Duffy, I think I have a chance at a better hitting team than I do now. Especially if we hire a hitting coach. And that team of guys would cost $35 million less than the one that is 17-28 now.
        My minors is replenished by the trades, and we have $60-70 million to go shopping with by a new GM.

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      • Yes, OP, I agree with much of what you are saying. I will say this, though…I think Castro is going to be paid by someone. It is difficult to find a good defensive catcher and, as bad as he was last year at the plate, he has made some strides and if he is hitting around .240 with an OBP around .325 I would have no problem giving him a QO, especially considering our lack of catching depth in the minors. My bet is he will, at the least, get a 3/$36M contract. Other than him I might consider another QO for Rasmus, but if we are out of it by July I would rather trade him and get some prospects.

        The only concern I have with replacing the players mentioned via free agency is that next offseason is shaping up to be a very, very weak free agency class. This means the players available will be over-paid compared to the production they can provide.

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      • Tim, I don’t think you are wrong about Castro and free agency, but I would rather have the return for him in July in a trade vs a draft choice a full year later. Especially weighing that draft choice against the chance he would stick us with another year behind the plate at $16.1 million. Get prospects for him now, because the millions I’m talking about spending in the off season wouldn’t necessarily be for free agents, but for an expensive target in a trade. Maybe a player that we want who has a $15-20 million a year salary that would cost us two of the prospects we received in the summer and we take on a big salary to fill the biggest hole on our team.

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  27. Can’t help but wonder how long Luhnow can keep this bluff going. What happens when the AS break rolls around and his team has the worst record in baseball. What ya gonna say the Jeffy

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  28. Singleton has hit his 11th for Fresno – but it is their only hit, and his BA is just .215 even after the dinger. The young Dodgers of OKC are laying a whuppin’ on our AAA affiliate, as expected.

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  30. Teoscar Hernandez is on fire. 4-5 tonight with 2 doubles and 4 RBI. Second double on the night gives the Hooks a 8-7 lead in the top of the 10th.

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  31. Well, Fresno and Corpus Christi both came back from huge deficits tonight to win their games. Kemmer with a walkoff hit in the ninth as Fresno came from 6 back and Corpus was down by 5 runs and won by scoring four runs in the 10th inning. Teoscar, who had such a disappointing year last year is now up to .287 and his resurgence has helped Bregman, Davis, and Fisher turn Corpus Christi’s season around.

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  32. Nick Tropeano pitched 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball tonight against the Rangers!
    I’m so happy for that kid, just not against US when we play the Angels! He and Velasquez are on their way to a nice year. Good kids…..too bad they aren’t playing for us.😢😢
    Gomez is starting his rehab this week, he could be back in 7days. Luhnow will have some decisions to make in the outfield when he comes back. I’d REALLY like to see more of Kemp, but if we know J.L., Kemp will be sent down because Luhnow has a man crush on Marisnick. I like the guy too…..and I don’t want to see him released and go gangbusters on another team, but we can’t wait forever for the guy to hit.
    Again….if I’m Hinch I’d put the brakes on all this nutty stuff these guys are doing in the clubhouse, until they get the BIG PICTURE called “straighten up or your gone”.
    As for a change in the coaches, I don’t think Luhnow sees a problem. It’s ALL ON the players shoulders. I get the picture……I hope the rest of you do to.
    What I DON’T want to see is one more guy from the minors until we get this crap fixed. P E R I O D.

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  33. Old Pro…….yeah, I think we should trade all those guys you mentioned for prospects because heaven knows we don’t have enough of them on the farm right now. Or maybe we could turn around and trade all those prospects for some more used to be good, 35 yr.old players like Luhnow just loves. Sorry…..I’m feeling a bit cynical tonight because I’m so dang sick of watching guys luhnow traded be successful, while the slugs we got in the trades fail, and fail miserably. I don’t trust Ed Wade err….I mean Jeff Luhnow to make ONE….MORE…TRADE. GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

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      • Tim, I am sure that everybody (including yourself) understood the point Becky was making. Sorry, but posting just for the sake of arguing or to put somebody down is getting old.

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      • How did I put her down? I asked a simple question based upon her statement. Sorry, Nance, but if thick skin is missing the internet may not be for you or those with thin skin. I truly did not understand that statement, especially since the Astros have no one that age.

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      • Tim, you said your middle name was arrogant. After establishing that, the ” I’m innocent” card doesn’t work too well. Even I am smart enough to know what Becky meant.

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      • OK while Pat Neshek is the only player who hits the 35 y.o. mark – I interpreted Becky’s comment as saying that the FO seems to lean towards trading youts for mediocre 30 year olds. Not nitpicking on the players ages that much.

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      • There are enough things to pick apart Luhnow, but if you’re going to make false statements about him I’ll call you out. It iswhat it is. Ignore it and move on.

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      • I’ve been around here long enough that most should know tact is definitely not my middle name. I’ve never made personal attacks against anyone, but if my comments come across abrasive, at times, I can’t help you. I’ve seen abrasive comments others as well. Trading for someone who is 29, but has not performed as expected is a far cry from trading or signing aging vets.

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  34. I had not been paying attention to former Astros players, but ran across a negative comment about Domingo Santana on another blog.
    I was under the impression he was doing well, but when I looked him up I found out he was put on the DL this morning for a shoulder strain and that he has been very disappointing. The first surprise was no stolen bases in two attempts. Then I saw his WAR and he has the same accumulated WAR as Preston Tucker, -.4 according to Fangraphs. His K rate is 34% but he has a very high walk rate. He has the same problem as most of the Astros hitters, he’s not getting many hits, even though he has a sky-high BABIP of .369. He’s really struggling.

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    • His last appearance was on the 18th. Maybe the shoulder is part of his problem. No doubt, he is going to be a 25 to 30% K guy, at least into the foreseeable future. But I’m not convinced he won’t have a real impact at some point. The Brewers can afford to trot him out there every night as long as he’s healthy. They are not going anywhere in that division this year. In spite of all, he still has that .353 OBP and a .734 OPS. That’s almost attractive on our club.

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      • Yes his stats don’t look that bad at first glance, but when that BABIP comes down, yikes!

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      • Who says that BABIP is coming down. His track record would indicate it’s about right for him, I think.

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      • A sustained .369 BABIP in the major leagues is Mike Trout.
        Santana’s track record is the minor leagues.
        His BABIP is gonna come down.

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  35. I sure hope things turn around for the Astros, because the current stink is making the clientele around here extremely grumpy.
    it sounds like the FO is waiting for a 10 game winning streak to pull them out of the hole, which is a lot to ask from a team that has topped out with 3 two game winning streaks to date. I am not sure if 2 games in a row even meets the definition of a streak – “an uninterrupted series”.
    Maybe we should call these two game anomalies.

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    • Dan, I think the FO is expecting the law of averages and regression to the mean here. We have lost a ton of close games. Unfortunately, we are not losing because of statistical variance or chance. We are losing for little, dumb reasons:
      – PO baserunners
      – Get a lead? Pitchers turn around and gives some back
      – Get down early? Offense won’t scratch for runs to narrow the defecit while they have lots of innings left
      – Bullpen woes
      – Shifts with RISP

      Got more?

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  37. Yikes I Just realized I have thin skin when it comes to condescending arrogant comments, reminds me of my angry bitter mother in law. I guess its time for me to leave the blog, Hell no Astros in 2020

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    • Please stay. These things work out. We are all good people in a somber mood right now and these things work themselves out.
      I will now focus on Astros baseball.
      How about that Alex Bregman, anyways!!!

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      • Are you kidding and leave you and the ladies,Bill, Billy, Nance, Sarge,TNT, Dave. Dan and the rest of the gang no way!! Even Tim Lunhow (_: This blog has saved me hundreds on Razor Blades.

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  38. Wow1
    Carson Smith- Tommy John Surgery
    Josh Hamilton done for the year.
    Alex Gordon with fractured hand.
    Lucas Duda- stress fracture in back
    Kevin Kiermaier-hand surgery
    Josh Reddick-Fractured left thumb
    Choo back on the DL for a different injury than the one he had last week.

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    • The Red Sox, with a very deep and talented farm system, could now use a guy like Luke Gregerson. With 5 teams in each league now qualifying for the playoffs there are always more buyers than sellers at the deadline. If the Astros become sellers they could do very well in replacing some of the prospects traded away, especially someone like Gregerson who would still be under team control through 2017.

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  39. You know 1OP, I guess we do need a do-over. It is time to blow up the team again and start over. If we can drop even 35 or 40 million in payroll prior to forming a squad for the 2017 season, then I’m mostly in agreement. But as odd as this sounds as I write it, I agree that we don’t have a replacement for Castro unless we get a catcher via a trade or FA. The only other stipulation I would have is that we’ll want a new architect. I’m not prepared to give Luhnow another shot.

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    • I can’t see Castro staying after the arbitration scenario during the offseason.
      I can’t see the Astros offering him $16million in a QO, after fighting to gain $250,000.
      A trade is the best scenario for the Astros.
      Getting a replacement for him is something the Astros have to do for next year, and bringing up a lefty hitting catcher like Heineman gives the Astros a chance to look at him, without costing the Astros a roster spot, because a Castro trade automatically opens that spot.
      I think the trade of Castro and a replacement for him for 2017 and beyond are two completely separate issues.
      I’m disappointed in Castro. I always thought he could grab the team and shake them out of their doldrums like a lot of catchers take their teams on their shoulders. I just don’t think Castro is that kind of personality. But, he is what he is. A catcher who hit once, but got better as a defender and turned out to be a good receiver and a poor hitter for the Astros.
      Keuchel lobbied for the Astros to keep Castro after his last appearance last year. I thought it was weird at the time, but that indicated to me that there might be some issues between Castro and management. Then came arbitration. That definitely told me something was up.

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  40. I don’t believe Luhnow’s plan will ever be successful.
    There I’ve said it and I feel better.
    The Astros may have spurts of success like in April of last year but the decades of a winning team, like we all anticipated, will never happen as long as he’s at the helm.
    Building a team based on sabermetrics just isn’t working. Humans don’t react like robots, they need coaches with real baseball skills to develop their talents.
    I believe Luhnow could right the ship if he would hire the right kind of people and let them do their jobs. But that won’t happen. He’s an egotistical know-it-all that refuses to take advice.
    Who in their right mind would work for a guy like that? So we will continue to have yes men at every level.
    Rant over.

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    • I have to admit that I was as wrong about assessing the Giles trade and the Astros outlook for 2016 as Luhnow was. The big difference is that my assessments didn’t lead the Astros to this point and his assessments did. And I don’t get the big bucks and that fancy box up in MMP. I did say to get rid off Gattis and Castro last offseason instead of paying them $8.5 million. I feel like I was right about their performances. I was wrong in expecting good things from Gomez and Valbuena. That is probably why I’m here doing this and he will be in the corporate jet headed somewhere to watch a college guy play baseball. He was wrong about Gomez and Valbuena too, but his opinion is a reality and mine is just me ranting.
      I think Luhnow has hit his wall.

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      • Hey, I’m the guy that picked the 2016 version of our Astros to win 97 games. But I also wanted to get rid of the non athletic guys including Gattis. And maybe I just want to forget, but I think I was on the fence about the Giles deal. But you know OP, we’re allowed to sit here and second guess. We’re not getting paid. It’s our job.

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      • I wouldn’t say you, or myself, were wrong on Giles just yet. His velocity is back up to where it was last year and he has been, for lack of a better term, lights out the last 2 weeks. I would give this some more time before declaring the trade a failure.

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  41. Sooner or later we’re going to hear something from all of these guys we’ve traded about what goes on behind the scenes and why they were not successful in Houston. Until we do there won’t be a big outcry for peoples heads unless it’s on this blog.
    On another note, the ladies are kicking butt today. Good for them.

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    • JD Martinez and Chris Carter both made statements that, to paraphrase, their problem in Houston was no one showed them how to fix their problems.

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  42. Go Ladies love it. I have to agree 150% , we can wheel and deal, make all kind of deals, re tool- re build what evert one wants to call it, however if Uncle Jeff and his band of nerds are still driving this ship, we are the Titanic. This leadership will never, did I say never, build any trust or a winning culture and we wiil continue to be the place no one wants to go and die!!!!

    (*{_^*&%&*(*P&(*

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  43. Not specifically an Astros thing but is associated with how Keuchel will perform in the future. Would be curious to know what you all think about the proposed change to the strike zone. Will it lead to better hitting? I haven’t completely wrapped my mind around it, but my first impression is that it will only increase the walking (therefore further slow the pace of game and increase boredom). The few major league pitchers I have been fortunate to know well would all rather walk a guy than yield a double to,the gap on a cookie down the middle. My thoughts are if you want to decrease strikeouts and increase the number of balls in play, draft, develop, and sign more players who can do that instead of going for all power, low contact rate.

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    • Nance, I read a couple of articles on this. My opinion is that they can change what they want and every pitcher in baseball will have to adjust. The one’s with the best command and control will be the ones who adjust best to the new strike zone. Once things even out and low end of the strike zone is raised, the best pitchers will still be the ones with the best stuff and the pitchers who can put the ball in each individual hitter’s blue zone and those pitchers will turn out to be the same one’s who are good now. Keuchel has been known for his command for the last two seasons and he is off right now. When he finds his command, he will be back to being Dallas Keuchel.
      The changing strike zone will probably raise BAs and walks a little bit, but I think the ranking of pitchers will stay the same. Even in a smaller container, the cream rises to the top.

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  44. Folks….I apologize for being so cynical last night, but I was watching Nick Tropeano pitch and thinking who we got for him….*Hank Conger*. Again, I apologize for ruffled feathers…..just made me sad, AND mad that sooo many trades have been so lopsided, and not in OUR favor. Please forgive me. Thanks, Becky⚾

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    • You have nothing to apologize for Becky! I was the one yelling “Get off my lawn” to one of the kids. All is good. I watched Bull Durham again this morning and my good humor is restored. Go Astros!

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    • Forgive you for what? Speaking the truth? Your opinions matters just as much as anyone else. And it feels so good to get it out there.

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    • First, I agree with the others that I didn’t sense you being cynical, but just frustrated. With that being said, and I am going to try to be as tactful as I possibly can, I wouldn’t worry too much about that trade. The Astros definitely lost that trade, but Tropeano, while a serviceable pitcher, is probably going to be nothing more than a BOR. While his ERA is a respectable 2.86 this year his xFIP is 4.68 and he has a 4.11 BB/9 this year. Of all the players traded over the past 2 years him and Carlos Perez are low on my radar as far as fretting losing them. I just don’t see either of them as big losses. Now, Hader and VV are another story, but it’s still early in the trading of them to make a full evaluation of how they will do in the major leagues. I think they both will be TORs or, at worst, MORs, but with VVs injury history and Hader yet to pitch a single inning in the major leagues I want to wait this out some more to fully evaluate the level of panic over losing them.

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    • The ironic thing about Fowler is that he was about our 4th best centerfielder. Would he have played left? Don’t know. But it sure would have been nice to have a .400 plus OBP guy leading off in front of Altuve. How come he never sported those kind of numbers in Houston? Same old question. I suppose we could have found a third baseman somewhere else. But then again, Fowler was too expensive, as were most third basemen for our small market club. At least our small market payroll.

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      • Fowler is now a poster child for the player’s union, which is made up of millionaire baseball players who are going to be out to get more money for their members this winter. I am not taking sides because millionaires trying to get more money from billlionaires makes as much sense to me as billionaires who want more money.
        This is not about Fowler. His career year is just great timing for his usage as the union’s pawn.
        The loser in the whole deal will be the fans, because the result will be the players making more money and the fans footing the bill. As long as fans pay $35 for a baseball cap and $125 for a jersey that will be obsolete next year things will spiral upward. Those prices are gonna go up.
        What it means for the Astros is that this summer will be the summit for players to be moved at the deadline, because next year all the rules will be changed. There won’t be QO’s and free agents will be sold to the highest bidder and there won’t be considerations about draft choices, etc. Now is the time for the Astros to move their expensive, low-producing players for prospects because the draft will be more normal and free agents will be more expensive. It will behoove the Astros to tie up their current stars if they can, and for them to clear the docket so that they have the money to go after a superstar or two, when all the great players opt out and become free agents after the 2017 season ends. All the jockeying is being done right now for that date by the rich clubs, but there will be enough stars to go around for the Astros to pick up one or two if the Astros play their cards right, get their payroll in order, hire the right coaching staff and bring in a GM that players will respect, for when the spending frenzy comes at the end of next season. Players want to play for winners and where they can get the most money. But, if they don’t like your organization because they think you are sleazy or cheap or both, half of the FAs won’t even listen to you. It’s time to get this baseball club back to being a baseball club the great players want to play for. This year, this summer, starting in June. It’s May 24th, the Astros are 11 games under .500 and they have not been killed by any major injuries. This is a bad team, the party is over and it’s time to get to work fixing it.

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      • Remember the following about Fowler:
        – He had come off 2 years including the one with the Astros playing 116 and 119 games
        – He had 6 years where he was averaging 130 games per year
        – Finally last year he played 156 games – almost a full year, but his numbers were down .250 BA/.346 OBP/ .757 OPS – decent but not like what he is putting up right now.
        – If he puts up these big numbers all year and….he actually plays almost the whole year then he was underappreciated a bit – but otherwise he was judged not worth a draft choice because no one knew if he would miss 20% or more of the season.

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  47. I am probably the lone Luhnow supporter on this blog, and I am good with that, but it is why I go to his defense here. I also read and comment over at TCB and the 2 blogs couldn’t be further apart when it comes to peoples opinions of Luhnow. My guess is that he is somewhere in the middle when it comes to how he has done as a G.M. for the Astros. The ironic thing is I have gotten in a few disagreements over there criticizing JL. By the way, if you think I’m condescending and arrogant you should read some of the replies over there. They take it to a whole different level.

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    • You are right about that Tim. I especially chuckled at one of the “arguments” over at TCB. Ironically, the people speculating about a potential medical diagnosis that could be the cause of Dallas’ issues based on no medical records or examination were chastising somebody for misusing legal terminology for saying the Astros would be negligent for not diagnosing it. I found it quite comical.

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    • TCB is full of Luhnow fanatics who have driven out his detractors. I rarely read the articles anymore, but sometimes peruse the comments. It’s all fantasy baseball as far as I am concerned to those folks. They misunderstand that the most important stat in the books is team wins.

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    • If you express your opinion and it is not in line with the thinking of the royal family over there, you will be swarmed. I comment less and less all the time over there because they have their reasons for supporting Luhnow until the bitter end, whatever the reasons are. I am definitely afraid to express what I think over there. I read the articles to be informed by them but I don’t feel free to comment for fear of rebuke.
      Fans like me who have followed baseball for years are not appreciated at TCB unless we conform to new baseball norms, some of which are nonsense. But that school of Luhnow blind supporters are experts at making people like me feel undesirable in new age baseball conversations. It is all about Jeff Luhnow and nothing about the Houston Astros. It’s like a lot of the rest of the world, where old people are looked upon as preschool children who need education, but are laughed at basically, because we’re not just old, but also, durga forbid, old-fashioned and unenlightened.
      Today’s baseball world is not really playing baseball, they have just started a new game and call it baseball to make money.
      Luhnow promised them a plan, but he lied to them, too. Some people refuse to believe what’s right in front of them. sorta like a cult.

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      • Last time I posted over there was a couple of years ago. I said Tucker’s best shot long term in ML ball was at the DH position. I did indeed get swarmed and was challenged to provide proof of my position. All I had was that I’d seen him play in Corpus a dozen or so times. It was pretty clear even then, to me anyway. Course they wanted all kinds of variables and reverse regression and zone stuff and URZ concepts and all that crap, some of which I still don’t understand. I wonder how many of those folks ever get out to a ballpark, have a beer and actually watch baseball players play a ball game?

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  48. The lineup is out and they have flipped Altuve and Springer in the lineup and both Moran and Kemp are starting, but VB is playing 1B over White and Gattis is the DH. I’m fine with Gattis at DH as he’s been one of the few guys hitting recently, but I’d prefer White over VB at 1B.

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  49. velasquez had a rough outing yesterday giving up 9 hits, but only 3 runs. Ironically, he only pitched four official innings because he gave up three solo home runs in his last inning. When he got in trouble he pitched out of it, but eventually they started to tee off on him.
    Appel had an even worse day as his start in AAA lasted only 2/3 of an inning and his fastball never topped 89. Not looking good there.

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