Panic time or adjustment and tweak time for Astros?

Writing this post on a sunny Monday afternoon is a struggle, almost as large a struggle as the Astros have experienced over the first 19 games and a 6-13 record. It is hard to believe that this team has only one series win to date and has a long winning streak of one in a row, accomplished six times in 2016.

Is it time to panic, or time to adjust for the Astros?

Looking back on 2015, the five eventual AL playoff teams had started off like this:

  • KC Royals 13-6
  • Houston Astros 12-7
  • NY Yankees 11-8
  • Toronto Blue Jays 9-10
  • Texas Rangers 7-12

The Rangers, who eventually overtook the Astros for the AL West title and whose pounding of the good guys almost kept them out of the playoffs struggled mightily and for a long time in 2015. A few times they bobbed up to the surface during the season, but they did not rise above .500 for good until August 15.

The only major move the Rangers made in the early season was one they would probably not repeat if given a Mulligan, the April 27 trade for Josh Hamilton. The reaction to this trade was a continued fall to a 7-15 record.

The Rangers eventually improved by allowing most of their players to snap out of it and then making some trades at the July deadline. But does this even matter when looking at the Astros’ situation?

The problem the Astros have is two-fold. They must decide whether to do anything and once past that gate, what they need to do.

Here are questions to ponder:

  • Do they need to let things shake out a little more to see what the true level of the club is? How much longer?
  • Do they need to jump in right now and make changes to the team itself? If so, what?
  • Do they need to jump in right now and make changes to the coaching staff? The front office? If so, what?
  • Would a four 0r five game winning streak change things for you or would you think it was a band-aid on a gangrene limb?
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135 responses to “Panic time or adjustment and tweak time for Astros?”

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  1. Tweak. Last night watching I am sure of one thing – Devenski is better than Feldman. I don’t get the Astros often, I haven’t seen Fister pitch (by the comments, thank goodness), but I am guessing Devenski is better then him too.

    The first tweak I would make is position, seniority, and dollars don’t matter – who has a better chance of winning the game does. Feldman to the pen, with Devenski getting a start or two to see him. Fister follows as soon as McCullers is ready.
    \
    Offensively, they are what they are. They are going to strike out. That Gomez strikeout was critical, and he knew it, so he broke a bat over his knee. Gomez and Castro need to figure it out. Short sample excuses end at about game 10, after that, you need to get it going. Valbuena needs to get something going too.

    I would keep it tweak for another 2 weeks. There will be plenty of time to blow this thing up, trade or release Feldman, Fister and Gomez. I would even entertain offers for Gregerson since he likely actually brings you a return, as well as Rasmus (keep on rolling cheese, you are making yourself valuable), but those are discussions for a few weeks from now if they are 10-15 games under .500.

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    • Steven…..I don’t know any team that would want to take on Rasmus’s…owed money.
      And, I’ve been jumping up and down for Luhnow to give Devenski a start or two, but I guess he wants to see how many games Feldman, and Fister can screw up, before he admits giving either one of these two “has been’s”…millions of Cranes dollars was a BIG mistake.
      It’s infuriating to see Devenski being used up in the pen, two innings at a time, when he could be sliding in the rotation behind McCullers. I have no idea why Luhnow doesn’t trust his young pitchers…..but he clearly doesn’t. And…..Gomez can break all the bats he wants to, but his bat is not to blame. It pi$$es me off to see Gomez screw himself into the ground trying to hit the ball…..and miss getting to balls hit to center. Who knows maybe he needs glasses. I just hope Altuve doesn’t come down with the Gomez virus!

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      • Outfielders earning more than Rasmus in 2016:
        J Upton $22m
        Crawford $21.6m
        Werth $21.5m
        Ellsbury $21.1m
        Cespedes $20.8
        Choo $20.0m
        Braun $20.0m
        Pence $18.5m
        Kemp $18.25m
        Ethier $18m
        Heyward $17.5m
        Cargo $17.25m
        Holliday $17m
        Adam Jones $16.3m
        Trout $16m
        Melvin Upton $16m
        Granderson $16m

        That makes Rasmus the 18th highest paid outfielder. You can see the bust potential on these long term deals. I think, despite the high value in ’16, the contract not renewing would make Rasmus more attractive than many.

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      • The Astros would get some decent prospects for Rasmus considering his salary is just this year and his production. If they don’t recover by the deadline they should definitely look to trade him. There’s still a chance they can bring him back next year.

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  2. In the past, I was a small business owner. One of the best pieces of advice that I was given many years ago was, in management, remember this quote.

    “Don’t just do something, sit there.” Too early to panic. Now if you are the Yankees and paying $200 Million to older players and in last place, they get to panic.

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  4. Position player-wise the Astros are in the top 10 in the major leagues in accumulated WAR. That is the only positive thing I can find stat-wise that this team has going for it. They are the worst team in baseball in batting in the clutch, according to fangraphs.
    Like I said a few days ago, I think they should do everything within the organization they can do to make this a better team until the end of may. If we are out of it I think we should start trading players who aren’t going to be here next year. Someone guessed five of my six, but Rasmus has always been somebody I though who’s swing change from last summer could turn him into a better player. He is the one I thought we could and should try to sign to an extension.
    Don’t trade any core or young players.
    Don’t trade any prospects.
    Trade guys who are going to walk or be free agents by August 1st other than Rasmus.
    Trade Neshek to a contender.
    Get as many prospects as we can for these players and bring up their replacements.
    Set a goal to sign Keuchel and get it done after the season.
    Go with our young guys next year and save money for the free agent bonanza to happen at the conclusion of the 2017 season.
    See if Nolan is ready to take over the GM job of the Astros at the end of this year and do it.
    I think two five game winning streaks at the front end of May or tail end of April might change my mind.

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    • I am totally on board with Nolan Ryan getting his hands dirtier with this organization. Maybe it would make up a little for the pain of us losing him to the Rangers. Maybe he would take the pitching staff seriously. We’re not ever going to win the Series without the pitching. At least that’s my take, rad that I am.

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      • We have problems on all over with this team – but you are right Diane, it has to be the pitching staff that would carry them far or not at all.

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  6. We can’t afford to panic. We don’t really have anyone ready to plug key holes. Moran is striking out too much, Reed is not ready to go, we don’t have a starting catcher that is sure to hit more than Castro. And we don’t have a reliable bat waiting to play the outfield.

    We do have a few options with the pitching staff. I agree that it’s time to give Devenski a shot at the rotation. I’ve had it with Fields. I have no clue what to do with Giles except to let him keep pitching, but in lower leveraged situations.

    For the most part, we’ve got to hang on and hope these guys start playing like we’ve seen them play before.

    I think the most unforgivable thing I’ve seen to date is watching Pettis vaguely suggest to Altuve that he stand up at third. That should never happen. If a coach can’t coach, that’s real trouble. And it’s fixable.

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  7. I was calling for Luhnow’s head last summer, only to get interrupted by a pennant race! Why are so many of you suddenly on my team?

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  8. Not to rub it in tonight, but Mark Appel is 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA in three AAA starts. If he and VV both end up throwing 97 heat in the Phillie rotation over the next few months, that’ll add some real heat to the Luhnow fire.

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  9. Do we think that there might be something intrinsically wrong in the organization with the coaching staff, upper management, or the owners? Why is it that some of our players can’t make it here but go on to be super successful for other clubs? I mean it’s shades of the 80’s when we traded or gave up a potential all star roster. It changed when Hunsicker came in but then it went to crap again when he left. What is it with people’s ego’s who don’t want to listen to others. Kind of like the commercial where the guy is the only only in the room who disagrees with management and then finds himself out in the the street with no job.

    Just thinking out loud.

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  10. 1.) Yes. It won’t be time to panic until Game 82, and only if the team has 35 wins or fewer. My mantra for this season is “there is no ledge”.

    2.) While I’m a proponent of keeping the lineup relatively static (barring injury, obviously), I think sitting Gomez and trotting out Rasmus-Springer-Tucker would be beneficial. Hinch seems to think that Tucker can’t hit left-handed pitching, but he hasn’t had enough PA’s in the majors to determine that.

    3.) I suspect, but cannot definitively identify, that there is a disconnect between the general manager and the field manager. They don’t seem to match up, ideologically. Also, the hitters would benefit from a slight change in approach, as has been detailed by numerous other commenters here.

    4.) Unless that win streak is underpinned by a change in approach on offense and better pitching in general, I think we’ll look at it as fool’s gold and nothing more. That said, I’d love to see them win a few in a row. Ten sounds good.

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    • I just started watching and Fister had his fifth walk on a strike. The ump keeps squeezing him since I tuned in and I don’t understand it.
      Not saying his earlier walks weren’t walks but a guy like Fister needs to be rewarded when he hits the corners.

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      • Dan…..I can’t see the game, but I haven’t heard the guys on the radio say anything about it.

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      • Well then he walked a couple more on his own, but at least he toughed it out a bit in this game. But he needs to get his velocity up and I don’t know if that is going to happen.

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  18. Astros 2 for 9 w/RISP and have the tying run thrown out stealing in the ninth before getting a walk and a pinch single by Tucker. They really deserve to lose.
    They had Kratz on third and Altuve on second with one out and Springer and Correa up and got zilch. There’s you ball game, right there.
    Losing teams find ways to lose and we are getting good at it.

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    • If I’m Hinch I tell the guys, if you get caught stealing or picked off…….you not only get fined, but your butt sits on the bench the next game. No matter if they are facing Chris Sale, and we need all hands on deck…..you *sit*. This idiotic crap has got to stop…..it’s costing games, and it’s not funny anymore.

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    • Springer is the culprit there – striking out with one out. Correa got put out on a great play by the 3B. He was just unlucky.

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    • I agree with Dan. For what it’s worth, it did look like Springer cut back on a few swings, but I don’t really understand why he is swinging through so many fastballs. I mentioned the other day that no one was missing Giles’ fastball. Well, the Astros were consistently missing Walker’s fastball over the middle of the plate last night and then completely baffled by the changeup he was throwing. It may have been a splitter. Regardless, it looks like the same pitch but you can’t really tell when it will drop. You don’t want to get deep in a count and be at the mercy of a pitch hanging.

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  20. Dan, at the foot of your post this morning is this: “Rest in Peace with a $350,000 Life Insurance Policy.” I know this means something, but what?

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    • Not sure where that is Diane – not on the computer version – are you on your phone?
      Maybe that is what we need – kind of like the famous 2005 gravestone RIP that the Chronicle posted.

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      • There you go, Dan. (It was up this morning when I first came on, not now.) How could I forget the Chron contribution to the 2005 success story?

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  21. Thanks for the post guys. The first time in a very long time, I quit watching after the 5th. I am just shocked at the lack of discipline and leadership on this team. Then I started thinking about the Milwaukee and Philly trades, threw up, and went to bed.

    This season could be an epic disaster of historical proportion. I ‘m finding my self re planning my summer, the wife will be happy. I’m actually looking at NFL Draft Boards, How sad is that?

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    • I am, too. Wasn’t even caring about the draft until about a week ago. Now I am approaching the draft like it’s the birth of a child after the death of a friend.
      But, first, we going to try getting through the next 24 hours here in southern OK without getting wiped off the map.

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      • I’ve been watching the weather OP……my sister lives in Dallas. You will be in my prayers for the next few days to be safe from harm. Some very ugly weather pointed your way. Stay safe my friend. Becky⚾

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      • Hang in there op – we were under water a week ago and there are places still in peril if we get hit with more rain – but tornadoes are another / worse thing. Prayers to you and all in danger’s way.

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  23. Corpus Christi had a 7-0 lead after two innings against Midland at home. They got 2 total hits in the next 12 innings and lost 8-7 in 14.

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  24. Bench the guy that makes the next base running blunder. Bench the next guy who swings out of his shoes with a RISP. AJ gotta get these guys attention. And did anybody catch AJ post game interview? He made a comment about hitters being good in the strike zone or something? Really????

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    • Are we really sure this bad base running and swinging out of their shoes is on the players. Could it be manager / coach? I can’t believe they could all be that stupid.

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      • Sandy, you quoted Hinch as saying “swing hard, be aggressive on the bases, and do what we’ve been doing” (something to that effect). I think you’re right on the money that Hinch is dictating the approach, which has unfortunately led to numerous errors.

        Is it really possible that Gomez decided on his own to run in that situation last night? If so, he should be benched and/or fined accordingly. I think it’s more likely that he was either told to run or was given the “green light” to run. Either way, his judgment was faulty and if Hinch was in any way complicit, he’s at fault as well.

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  25. Just a question. Last Fall, a restructuring of minors coaching staff was announced. Something about no longer needing “developmental” coaching because how advanced the minor league clubs were. Wonder if that may have impacted the youngsters?

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    • I think I know. They had some very expensive coaches in the minors, including Brocail and Lawless. The explanation was a good way of saying they had to get their minor league pay structure back in line.

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  26. I’m thinking AJ might have spent the winter at Uncle Jeff’s house dinking about 100 gallons of his delusional Kool-Aid, Bummer. He just seems way different than last year?

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  27. Did A.J. spend too much time being the guy’s pal last season, which worked out fine when they were playing better?
    This reminds me of parents who raise their kids to never hear the word “No” and then are shocked when 10 year olds don’t react when this foreign word is used on them.
    Last year was dancing and high 5’s – this season tension and pouting?

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  28. I don’t think it’s all on Hinch………his pitching staff has gone down the tubes, and his prize players can’t figure out how not to get picked off bases. I gotta feeling there are some ugly undertones with his coaching staff. It will be interesting to see what May will bring. For sure McCullers will be back, and that might help right the ship.

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    • Becky, I wish I was as sure as you are that McCullers will be back. Sore shoulders scare me. Hopefully it is all just a manipulation to limit his innings without costing him salary or service time so he will be fresh in October. Of course, Astros have to be playing in October for that to matter……sometimes what seems like a good idea in the beginning goes south in a hurry…..

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  29. I don’t think its all Hinch, but as the captain of the ship, not sure about his leadership right now. It seems he has shrunk a bit.

    So what about flipping Hoyt for Giles right now, seems like a win win for both and especially maybe the Astro’s will win a game!

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  30. There are basically three problems on this team:

    1. Inconsistent starting pitching.
    2. Abysmal hitting with RISP.
    3. Boneheaded baserunning errors.

    Fix any one of these and you’ve got a 0.500 team. Fix all three and you’re in first place right now.

    I’m a believer that hitting with RISP is not really much of a skill, but more just random luck. The Astros have been really unlucky with RISP. They are due for a correction.

    As to the inconsistent starting pitching, no one’s surprised that McHugh isn’t the ace he was last year, but the main thing is to pray that Keuchel doesn’t have some undisclosed injury, and that McCullers can come back soon. With some luck and maybe adding Devenski into the rotation, you could solve that problem.

    Boneheaded baserunning errors are a part of having a young team. No answers there.

    Bottom line, this team really should get better. Yeah, Gomez and Castro stink, but every team has some stinkers. There’s just no way to have this many good players on a team and have a 0.300 record long-run.

    Are we going to win the division? I don’t know. But we should asymptote to 0.500 at least.

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  31. I wonder why:
    Why has White all of a sudden stopped hitting. Hitting coach?
    Why has Correa had nearly as many errors THIS year, than he did ALL of last year.
    Why has Altuve been thrown out so much, when he excels at stealing bases.
    Why has Keuchel been hit so hard….
    WHY has this WHOLE rotation been hit so hard…no one is immune.
    Why has there not been a closed door team meeting yet.
    I’m just putting it out there, but these are the VERY things that have GOT to be addressed before this team can even START to improve.
    I’m not gonna diss one guy, player or coach…..but clearly there is enough blame to go around.
    It will be interesting to see how this team reacts when McCullers, and Stassi get back…..

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    • I saw a quote from White this morning where he said he was hitting home runs and all of a sudden he forgot what kind of a hitter he was. He said he has swinging for homers and got out of who he is. I expect he will try to go back to that guy that is more selective and walks more, strikes out less and settles for hits.

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      • How come the rookie is the only one showing perspective and maturity when looking objectively at himself…..

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      • Dan, I think he read my comments here. Not sure when Gomez and Springer will come around to it…I’ll assume they are too busy to check in.

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  32. My son got a good price on a storm shelter and his wife and I have been saving up to buy one. It’s going in sometime this week
    This afternoon we’re headed to her folks house to ride this thing out where there is already a shelter. Hopefully we will be back safe and sound later tonight!

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  33. There is one thing that sticks in my mind…and it seems to be an ongoing issue with regard to Astros hitting year in and year out. Orrrr…it maybe its just be my imagination.
    What I see is that opposing hitters do not seem to have nearly the number of poor AB’s that the Astros seem to have. There are so many swings and misses !Opposing batters seem more adept at taking poor or close pitches and not letting the good ones go by. The Astros batters, on the other hand, will take a strike (or 2) right down the pipe and then swing at one that is high and tight, low and away or in the dirt (I assume in an effort to demonstrate patience). I just don’t see that from other teams against our pitching.
    Is it because we don’t have any pitchers that throws heat ?..or hide the ball good ?? But man !! Opposing batters just seem to see our pitches so well. Or maybe , as our commentators would say, the other teams pitching has been just been great !.

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  34. I read an article this morning where in a interview Hinch was talking about Gomez trying to steal second in the ninth and how he needed to go look at the video to see what kind of jump he got and what he saw in the pitchers delivery to make him try to steal.

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  35. I will keep you and everyone else up here in my prayers, I’m hoping that it misses us here in DFW but they are expecting another round of large hail to hit these parts.

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  37. Baseball is gonna have to take a back seat tonight folks…..we have some friends who are in the path of these storms tonight. I know I speak for everyone of you when I say we are praying for the safety of Old Pro and astros fan57 and their families tonight. I’ve already asked OP to try and check in tonight and let us know you are ok, the same goes for you too astrosfan57!! Becky⚾

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  38. OP and AF57, as I said above, I’ve been thinking of you as I worked all afternoon. Certainly I will continue, and as fortune would have it, I am meeting with a group of women tonight who will also be informed that I have a personal interest. This goes for anyone else on here who may not have registered his or her concern who lives in the target area.

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  40. They are giving him one start to see how he does. Pray this kid will turn Luhnow’s head, I don’t know WHY Luhnow has so little faith in young pitchers. He would rather use them as trade bait, instead of letting them show they can pitch for the Astros and succeed! Can you imagine Devenski and McCullers with Keuchel and McHugh and maybe Musgrove by June!!! COOL!!! I gotta feeling Moran is coming up soon, he’s really swinging it in Fresno!!WOO…HOOO!!

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  41. Good news for Devenski! All of you in tornado alley, be safe tonight. I’ll be watching the condensed version of tonight’s game first thing in the morning. Too late a start so far east.

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  42. TOTAL MELTDOWN……Keuchel can’t find the plate and throwing errors just sank this game. I’m just shaking my head.

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  43. Just got home. Spent 45 minutes in a 6×8 underground shelter with three grandkids, six adults and two dogs. All of us are safe and everything is intact.
    Now, let’s see how the Astros are doing.
    OMG! 5-0….I’m going to watch reruns of men’s curling.

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    • I’m glad you and your love ones are ok OP,
      We didn’t get anything near as bad as they were predicting, just some rain and strong winds, lost power for a couple of hours but all is back to normal. Wish I could say the same about Keuchel and the Astros.

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  44. The sad part is due to the horrendous trades made by Luhnow the team of the present and future suddenly doesn’t have such a bright future and the present looks very bleak. If this year finishes like expected either Hinch or Luhnow or both will be gone. This team is an embarrassment and the farm really doesn’t offer as much hope as we thought. Reed has power, but will have a high K rate. Moran will K frequently and has limited power. We have no OF or C depth. Even our SP depth is a few years away. The only area the Astros gave depth is the bullpen with Hoyt, Ferrell and McCurry looking like nice pieces. If we can’t count on our Cy Young then we have to admit this team just isn’t very good and I’m not sure they will be good again any time soon.

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  45. ANOTHER ERROR FOR CORREA. He pulled White off the bag *twice* tonight, the second time he did it he got charged with the error. IS White that much smaller than Carter? Carlos seems to have trouble getting his throws off correctly this year……
    Goes back to my question this morning. Why has he had so MANY errors already?
    Cano with a grand slam off Feliz. JEEZE.

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  50. My biggest concern is that our stopper is not stopping. But it appears that we are in general, not a very god team. Too many holes. The party is over for Luhnow. His recent bold moves have all backfired, at least to date. I don’t think he gets a free pass this year. On another note, I’d like to hear a candid interview from Correa. What’s going on in his head? He’s a different baseball player. It’s not all sophomore slump.

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