Predicting anything is a very inexact science, which is why Biff became a Gazillionaire in Back to the Future Part II by taking a sports almanac from the future back to 1955. One web site has compiled what they call a consensus of seven different sports mystics predicting what MLB hitters and pitchers will produce in the coming season. http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/projections/hitters.php
Toodling around the different positions with an eye specifically to the Houston Astros reveals a number of interesting nuggets and the feeling that in some cases the consensus may not end up being as accurate as Biff was.
- Carlos Correa. Their predictions that Correa will put up 24 HR, 93 RBIs, 21 SBs with a .277 BA and a .812 OPS make him a formidable offensive weapon at a non-offensive position. But considering he had a .857 OPS and was on a 162 game arc for 36 HR and 111 RBIs as a 20 year old rookie, this prediction almost feels disappointing.
- Jose Altuve. He is predicted to be one of the top offensive 2Bs with 90 Runs scored, 38 SBs, 11 HRs and 61 RBIs while producing a .310 BA and a .782 OPS. Again, this is a strong season for a 2B, but a small step down from 2015 when he had 15 HRs, 66 RBIs and a .812 OPS.
- Starting pitching. They are showing 6 main SPs with varying numbers….Dallas Keuchel 15-9 / 3.06 ERA, Collin McHugh 12-10 / 3.79 ERA, Lance McCullers Jr. 10-8 / 3.63 ERA, Mike Fiers 9-8 / 3.81 ERA, Doug Fister 8-8 / 4.24 ERA and Scott Feldman 6-6 / 4.15 ERA. Keuchel and McHugh, while still pitching well would total 12 less wins than in 2015, however the 60 wins predicted here would be more than the 55 wins that the top 6 SP’s totaled in 2015.
- Closer. While A.J. Hinch keeps his choice of closer close to his vest, the projection experts say that Ken Giles and his 2.66 ERA will pocket 34 out of 37 save opportunities in 2016.
- Outfield. Ignoring Evan Gattis (who appears in both the DH and OF areas due to his handful of LF appearances), the top 3 Astro OFs are solid, but unspectacular. George Springer (26 HR, 76 RBIs, .258 BA, .801 OPS), Carlos Gomez (20 HR, 71 RBI, .261 BA , .751 OPS) and Colby Rasmus (23 HR, 62 RBI, .234 BA, .750 OPS) are backed up by Preston Tucker (11 HR, 36 RBI, .248 BA, .730 OPS) and Jake Marisnick (who apparently did not learn to hit in the off-season – 6 HR, 28 RBI, .239 BA, .643 OPS). So, sorry George you will have a better, but not spectacular year.
- First base. The big news here is that the experts predict that A.J. Reed will basically split the ABs at first base with Jon Singleton (351 vs. 331 ABs), but somehow Reed’s .260 BA/ .774 OPS as compared to Singleton’s .214 BA/.720 OPS will result in the same 15 HRs and only 2 more RBIs (49 vs. 47).
So where do you fall on all this prognostication?
- A lot of these numbers are unsurprisingly close to what these players put up in 2015. Which ones do you think will more likely go up? Go down?
- Any reason to believe this is any more accurate than what the fair folks here at the blog can do?
- Is there anything else in the web site that you would like to point to such as DH, 3B, C, or other relievers?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
135 responses to “Astros 2016: Back to the future with projections”
Correa doesn’t have enough power history in the minors because he moved up so fast and he was so young.
But one ratings system projected him to be the Astros’ most powerful hitter way back when he was in Quad Cities and I don’t believe the projections are taking into account how fast the ball comes off his bat and how many fly balls he hits. They will continue to underestimate his power until they remember that his MPH average off the bat was one of the highest in the majors last year.
Correa has always been a good hitter with men on base and in a full season batting third in the order, I will be surprised if he falls short of 100 rbis.
I think the win projections for Keuchel and McHugh are low by two each.
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I agree 1OP. I also feel that Springer, if healthy will probably hit for more hrs and for a higher average. I don’t see Singleton and Reed seeing the same at bats. I think Singleton will have a short rope to prove that he can make consistent contact and if he is successful, Reed will stay at AAA. If he doesn’t, Reed will come up and be our first baseman for the next decade. (can’t wait)
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All good points old pro about CC. He is one of more clutch hitters, shows good power to all fields and can so easily reach those Crawford Boxes. I’m also betting he is even more muscled after an off-season of intense work outs.
The other thing about him is that unlike George Springer, he really swings within himself. He is not over-swinging or trying to hit 550 foot home runs, but he gets big bat speed with a very natural and un-forced swing.
I am so looking forward to watching him play for years. I just see him as a transcendent talent.
Wins are such an uncontrollable stat – Kluber has a 3.49 ERA and a sparkling 1.054 WHIP but goes 9-16. King Felix has a similar 3.53 ERA, a 1.180 WHIP, but goes 18-9.
I think McCullers could be the guy who really moves up – maybe 15-10 or such.
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Most of this strikes me as under promising so as to get a higher than expected result. I don’t expect Keuchel and McHugh to have the relatively gaudy numbers of last year but these are still players on the rise and I expect their performance to be solid and dependable. Springer, Correa and even Altuve are also ones who should be on the rise. I’m going to be really interested in how Springer is used this year. Despite his power potential I really like what he brings to the table as a leadoff hitter. Compared to Altuve he has a better OBP potential and if Springer leads off and Altuve hits second I think you could see another monster year for Altuve. That will also give Correa a lot of RBI opportunities so expecting 100+ RBI from him is not a stretch IMO. I want to see those three guys getting the most ABs and if they are there all year I think our offense will be much more effective than last year.
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Looking at these projections, George Springer is probably the most underrated player in the league. Projecting him with 559 PAs and those numbers must mean they have him leading off but not attempting to steal. I may be crazy and in love, but I think he is going to beat those projections big-time.
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George is listening to you oldpro as he doubles in his first at bat in ST.
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Fully agree.
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Looks like the Astros are starting their expected opening day lineup today against the Phils
Marisnick CF
Springer RF
Tucker LF
Duffy 3B
Singleton 1B
White DH
Worth SS
Stassi C
Fontana 2B
(for those who take me seriously, this is their lineup, but not the one for opening day)
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And the game is on the MLB channel.
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Tyler White with the Astros’ first run in ST!
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And following script – in the second inning – hitting magician Tyler White gets a single and scores when OBP expert Nolan Fontana walks with the bases loaded.
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Oh to be watching a ballgame again!
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TG I have 3 screens in my office and one on the Boys (_: LIFE IS GOOD AGAIN!
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Duffy has had three tough plays defending 3rd base. I hope the rest of the day goes better for him. ( I miss Caminiti and his Brooks Robinson plays)
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Well, the HR he just hit could make him feel a little better.
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Maybe I should show concern for him more often, He just smoked it way over the left field fence.
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Shades of 2015 – we have started off 0-2 [albeit with a walk] with the bases loaded!
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They’ve moved on from situational hitting to situational walking.
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At least it beats three big swings and walk back to the dugout!
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Our outfield now consists of Kemmer, Aplin, and Perez. That could be an outfield Fresno sees a lot of this year.
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Even better those guys are now fronted by an infield consisting of Moran at 3rd, Bregman at short, Kemp at 2nd, and Reed at 1st.
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What more could one ask for? Getting to see our two rated A prospects (Bregman and Reed) do their first appearance in MLB spring training back to back. Unfortunately both went down on strikes.
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Floating back to the “projections” – at DH they are showing Gattis with 25 HR / 76 RBIs and .250 BA / .290 OBP / .757 OPS which sounds like just a slight change from 2015 when he put up 27/88 with .246.285/.748 – the basic difference being about 60 less ABs predicted…..
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If Gattis is our DH [instead of T. White], those numbers are the best we can expect. And that will be okay as long as he doesn’t hit above #7 in the line-up – and our 4-6 all do significantly better than Gattis.
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I watched every pitch today because I wanted to see how every player played on every pitch. If I had to pick one thing to take away from this game it is: Fister’s ball movement makes him a pitcher. Crazy good movement.
If I had to take another: Reed’s six feet and five inches with a big mitt nine feet in the air helped save that game.
How bad could Duffy have played until he got his pitch? Way to lift yourself up.
Jandel Gustave’s fastball explodes at the last second. If Strom can get him to throw another decent pitch out of the same tunnel, look out.
Hoyt’s splitter is as advertised.
Springer with two doubles and a scary HBP. Visions of last year, dangit!
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Thanks for the report, OP1. I did not see the game on TV, but followed as close as I could on MLB gameday. The biggest takeaway for me was that Fister got a good start. We already knew that Springer could hit – and get hit by – fastballs.
One thing I have not heard anyone talk about is Fister’s velocity. Does anyone have any insight on that?
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He was 87-89 today which was higher than last year.
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Nice to have that big target over at first. That’s why I think White’s only real path is with his bat as a DH and maybe an occaisional game at third. He’ll hit, but he’s really got to put up some numbers to take the job from Gattis. It’ll be one of the more interesting things to watch over the next month.
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The Rangers’ rookies pounded out 16 more hits today – and clubbed the Royals 10-0. Don’t let people tell you the Rangers are ‘old’. They’ve got a new crop coming just like we do.
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I kept wandering when you’d get around to commenting on my “old” remarks about the Rangers!! You knew I was joking, didn’t you!!
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The good news for us all is that the Silver Boot rivalry should finally be poised to become one of the great sports rivalries of all time. Both teams should be very good for a very long time.
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Besides Giles, the “projections” for the 5 main relievers besides Giles groups them in a remarkably small performance range.
For Gregerson, Harris, Sipp, Fields and Neshek – the ERAs range from 3.23 to 3.47, WHIP from 1.10 to 1.19 and from 54 to 64 IP.
The Astros would probably like to have 1 or 2 with a bit better ERA, but would also like to keep 3.47 as the high end ERA.
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Maicer Izturis retired. As a baseball fan, I wanted to find out who he was, so I went to Baseball Reference. For the last few minutes I have tried to wrap my head around the fact that Izturis was 35 and had made over $22 million playing baseball.
I knew nothing about him. As a person of no means, this hit me like a ton of bricks. I just can’t fathom being able to have that kind of money.
Having worked so hard for so little and having to scrimp for everything to try and raise my children and provide for my wife and her doing the same to provide for me, I am flabbergasted at what baseball has become, and astounded that I do not have the means to even go to a baseball game, let alone buy a season ticket. It was a financially decisive moment to just switch to Direct TV for me.
I have said that baseball was a humbling game, but truthfully, it’s only humbling to be a fan, because the tears of baseball players fall into glasses of champagne.
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People often say – “Hey sports is entertainment and nobody complains about how much Tom Hanks makes in a movie.” The difference to me is that if you can just make it through one season in the majors you are making over $500,000. For the last guy on the bench this is like the actor who plays a waiter in a scene making 1/2 a million to ask Tom Hanks for his order.
Things to consider….
Bill Hall made $27+ million in his career….
Kaz Matsui made $38+ million…
Scott Feldman who has a below .500 64-73 record and a 4.42 ERA for his career will have sacked away more than $50 million by the end of this coming season.
This is why it is nice to read about guys like Gomez and Rasmus helping the young guys out with suits – even guys who may never ever play in the majors. It is nice when we read about their charity work or their time with the sick or their time with spent with kids. There has to be something to keep them at least partially grounded to what the humble fans like op live through.
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Mickey Mantle was my first hero. I think he peaked at 100K. And in those days, you’d take a cut after a poor season. And of course you were married to the same team for your career, unless they decided to trade you.
That’s the toughest part of enjoying the game for me at this point. The player loyal to his team and city and a club loyal to a loyal player are pretty much things of the past. Yeah, Biggio played for too many years, but for all but the last two seasons, he was special. He put up a .792 OPS at the age of 39. How many grizzled vets did that? But I digress.
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Actually, is it the case that players moved between teams less in the past than they do today? I’m with you that it seems that way, but I wonder how much of that view is colored by the fact that we mainly remember the very best players (like Mantle), and it’s certainly true that the best players do tend to change teams less (both in the past and today). Has anyone studied this question? There must be some research.
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Token, there was no free agency then. Players could not determine their own destiny. So while I can’t definitively answer your question in regards to whether or not players moved between teams less in the past, I know that far more players stayed with the same club for most, if not their entire careers, before Curt Flood took his brave stand. I’m sure someone here can find stats that illustrate player movement today as compared to 20, 30, 40 plus years ago.
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Today we get to see Altuve, Correa, Valbuena [batting clean-up for I hope the last time EVER], and Marwin for the first time in 2016. We also get to see Tyler White play a little first base to start the game. P. Tuck is back in left field.
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Gomez, Rasmus, and Castro will thus be the last of our projected starters to actually start an ST game in 2016.
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Well, Mr. Bill you jinxed Valbuena into a 2 Run HR first time out, which along with a solo HR by super-sub MarGo and 3 shut out innings between Wandy and Harris – give the Astros their 2nd 3-0 start in 2 games.
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Are they trying to make Altuve a more patient hitter? He took 3 straight strikes for a K. Has the man ever taken 3 straight pitches, much less strikes???
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Very typical Astros game so far. Four runs on four hits including 3 dingers…. Valbuena, MarGo and Tucker.
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All that off-season weight training for Jon Singleton has paid off as so far in the two games he is 0 for 5 with 3 Ks.
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Now we know what Jon did during the summer. He watched replays of all Domingo Santana’s major league at bats last year.
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The masher were in the game today…nice to see the fellas start out where they left off last year, hitting homeruns! Kudos to Tucker too….homeruns, as Gomez would say “sexy”!!! I agree.
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it was nice to see Wandy, Harris, Jankowski and Buchanan get the job done on the mound today. Unfortunately, things did not go well at all for Mr. Straily, and Mr. Minaya . . . well, let’s just say he made me go pour myself a glass of medicine.
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Great to spend the afternoon with my team. Most relaxed I’ve been in 4 months.
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I can’t tell you how great it is to see Astros baseball again, even if it’s just spring training games. My 2 boys and I leave for Orlando on March 14th and we are very excited. This is our 3rd consecutive year attending spring training and 4th overall. It is one of my favorite things to do with our boys. These are memories I hope last with them for a lifetime. If nothing else I have turned them into baseball fans and huge Astros fans and that’s always a good thing.
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Tim, everyone should try to make it to Spring Training once. I just appreciate the totally different relaxed perspective you get. It’s easy to forget for a long weekend the 200 million dollar contracts and business of the game. It really does feel more like our national pastime during those March games in Florida. Have a great trip with your boys.
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Rasmus, Gomez, and Castro get their first starts today. Reed starts at 1st, Fontana at 2nd, Bregman at SS and Moran at 3rd, At least we are getting a pretty good look at some of the young guys! All we need is more cowbell.
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Castro’s first start comes at DH. Stassi catching.
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One of the things I have loved about spring training so far is Hinch using the minor league closers in the ninth and leaving them in there to work out of trouble. Gustave on Thurs. and Minaya yesterday got themselves and the team in trouble and both worked out of it to earn the save.
Those kind of trials will develop their intestinal fortitude and serve them well in the future. You have to figure they feel the pressure of the TV and performing in front of the front office with major leaguers in the dugout watching. Real good experience.
I wonder if Reymin Guduan will have the same chance in the coming days
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Oh, and Valbuena’s home run comes off a lefty.
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Springer with another double (run scored) and a walk (but picked off first) so far. Moran with an RBI single and Castro with a single bungled into a double hitting the other way.
McHugh with a scoreless two innings.
It is nice to see these guys on Root Sports today – seeing Moran and Reed and Bregman. Fun!!
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Giles seems to be trying to over-throw a little all over the place.
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He definitely was out of sync. Could not throw a pitch at the knees. Threw all fastballs and all of them at the belt or higher. Lucky to only give up two.
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Let’s hope he got that nonsense out of his system.
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Even though it has been a quiet day for the bats – it is a blast to finally see guys like Devenski, Sclafani, Reed, Fontana, Moran, etc
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Devenski with 4 Ks in 2 IP. I like it.
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I was so afraid Luhnow was gonna trade Devenski, like he did Tropeano, and Velasquez…I held my breath when he traded for Giles. Devenski is probably gonna end up a good #2 or 3 guy in the rotation….I just hope we see him in the rotation in 2017! Didn’t get to see the game, but I listened to it. How did Stassi look behind the plate? He picked a guy off trying to steal…we need him to do more of that, if he’s going to be our regular catcher next year.
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The simplicity of batting line stats only begin to tell the story, but two guys I’m looking to equal, or best as their PA’s increase; Marwin, 27 compared to Jose Vizcaino at 27 (287/332/365/698), a line we could live with, especially at OBP from a 5th IF, but expect more. Springer compared to Carlos Beltran at 27 (307/389/522/911). As I see it, by raising their avg’s by 10-25 pts (gained by better team situations) and getting 200 more AB’s than 2015, both players move toward “workingman’s” elite status. Masters at executing on the field. You can see it pretty plainly as we have a number of prospects vying for defensive positions, but these mainstays are hard to take off the field, or lineup!
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I think if we took a vote for the most improved or breakout player on this squad Mark – it would have to be Springer. He is the right age, he has more than a season’s worth of abs under his belt, he has the tools and he just needs to stay on the field this season.
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ABs not abs
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I know Marwin is a major blocker for the White, Reed, Duffy, Bregman, Kemp, even Moran’s of the world… (soon as one of them wants to try SH, or playing efficiently every other defensive position – Bregman, White?) But in 2016 we have to keep contact – repeat – clutch, contact hitters in the lineup. Nobody wants to suffer through another Chris Burke or Darryl Ward in the thick of a pennant race, especially when we have other plus bats on the farm. But we already know predictably the productivity, and chemistry is there with MarGo. It’s going to take Reed and White repeating their MiLB numbers, along with a Valbeuna uptick to supplant him. My money is on Marwin, in fact, to increase his output. Stay tuned.
PS I’ve already seen enough of the Singleton trade bait experiment. Next!
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Marwin G has been one of my favorites for the last couple years. The question that I don’t know the answer to is whether he brings more value as a part timer filling in spots all over the infield or if you just hand him the 1B position and leave him there until Reed is ready.
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Good thoughts Dan, I never thought about MG as full time at first. That just may be the answer.
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I just say steadily give Marwin a spot start here and there as he earns it. While he’s no glass of wine – no Billy Spiers at the hot corner, he just needs to realize 400-500 AB’s, I think, to see his ceiling. A gamer that should be right in there where you normally have power, like Gomez or Rasmus. Marwin is going to give you that scrappy grit [read: short swing] the others only promise in elite slugging potential. I’m with you Dan, he’s worth every dime of that Swiss Army tool set. Again, I really focus on his OBP this year, floor being -310ish. If it doesn’t improve, that will open the door for any number of guys.
Get well soon, Becky!
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Well….what do ya know….Jon Singelton CAN get a hit. I’d rather have those doubles with the bases loaded, than a single homerun, but I’ll take both today! On the other side of the game with the Pirates, the boys were hitting homeruns al, over te place! Glad to see Jake get his today too!! Man that guy has an arm…love those outfield assists! Marwin has really come in his own since 2014, and he gets a hit nearly everytime he gets in the game. He’s much stronger from his right side, and I see him a plus player off the bench. This team (and our farm) is like walking into a candy store, sooo many good players to choose from! Next year there’s gonna be a fist fight in spring training for third and first!! I don’t recall EVER having THIS much talent in our minor league’s! Funny trick they played on Andrew Alpin yesterday….someone blew a bubble and stuck it on Alpin’s head, he never knew it!!
Gang….we have some good little catchers down on the farm!
Thank you Mark, my last chemo treatment is this Tuesday! I’m gonna celebrate when I get home, and if I never see those chemo chairs again, it will be too soon.
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To borrow from Browning.
It is Spring time in Florida
Becky’s through with chemo
God’s in his Heaven.
All’s right with the world.
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My maiden name was Browning!!
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#1 Becky we are so happy you are so close on the chemo – I keep you in my prayers and I will toast you with a cold brew tomorrow night.
#2 The games are meaningless, but it is fun to have the Astros win a split squad double header yesterday.
#3 In their 11-7 comeback win over the Pirates, the two homers by Duffy (3 for the spring), the homers by Marisnick, White and Teoscar Hernandez, the 3 hits by AJ Reed and Gustave striking out the side for his second save – standout. Paulino got beat up a bit and Musgrove gave up 1 run in 2 innings.
#4 In the other game, the Astros beat the Blue Jays 7-1. Brady Rodgers gave up the only run for the Astros which tagged with a blown save, but allowed him to get the win. As Becky covered above – Singleton broke out with a double, HR and 3 RBIs. The 1Bs had done nothing this spring and then Singleton and Reed had big days yesterday. Colby Jack jacked one, and Feldman, Wojo, Cotts, Jankowski and Chapman gave up no runs on the day. Valbuena now has 4 RBIs on the spring and all is right with the world as ac45 quoth….
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Keep the faith Becky. We sure are doing so for you. So far Spring Training is fun. Hopefully, as we go into the season it will be too.
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Question here. If Singleton, White and Reed all are at the top of their games you can’t play them all. If we were looking at a trade who would it be? Also looking at third between Moran, Valbuena, and Duffy. I like this type of situation rather than having a poor choice which has been the past few years.
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I think the answer is that (rightly or wrongly) they would let Reed stay in the minors and get AAA experience until June. It will be interesting to see if the last spot is available between Duffy and White – which way they go. Duffy seems to have the more powerful bat, White may be better at contact, but defense is a question with both.
Zanuda – the nice thing is they do have a lot more choices than before for these positions. It means they also have some trade chips in case something happens in the first few months (like injuries) to force their hand on a trade.
It is a blast to see these kids on TV that have been only numbers on a page or perhaps a youtube highlight. The future is now and in the future for this team.
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I think the Astros would let White and Reed begin the year in Fresno because they aren’t on the 40-man. If Gattis isn’t quite ready, I think the Astros would start the year with Tucker and Duffy on the team as DHs and bench players/1B backups.
This is pure speculation, but the Astros start the season with the Yanks and Brewers for 3 games each. The three top starters for the Yanks are RH, as are the #4, #5, and #1 starters of the Brewers. With the possibility of facing six RH starters in the first six games, I see Tucker being a DH a lot early and Singleton getting the starts at 1B.
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As far as who to trade and what to do at 3B, I think the ideal scenario would be to have Reed play great at Fresno, making Singleton and his salary attractive on the trade market by midseason. If Duffy is already on the team he is a backup at 1B, 3B and DH. Teams might definitely be looking at Duffy by the end of this year, especially if Moran appears ready.
Right now, the Astros are looking like they have extra MLB quality players arriving.
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Devin, I dont think Marwin is an everyday guy. Defensively, we’ve got four better outfielders and at least three better infielders. And Marwin does not run real well either. But he’s a quality utility guy and it’s hard to ignore what he does against left handed pitching. So yes, his skills probably add up to 250 plus at bats. But as the team becomes more talented, he might see his AB’s a actually decline a bit.
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Zanuda, if that became the case, then Singleton would have the bag and Reed would spend some time in AAA. And then at some point, one of the two would get traded, unless the other one became the best option in the organization as a DH. Because Gattis will start the season on the DL, the temporary DH job might well be a battle between White and Duffy. And because Duffy has spent more time at both first and third, he’d probably get the nod over White. He’d likely get starts at one of the corners against lefties too. I think third is the easy call right now. Unless Valbuena gets hurt, it’s his job and Moran also goes to Fresno. And speaking of Marwin, his OPS was well over .800 against lefty pitching. He should be in most lineups somewhere against southpaws.
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And I forgot all about Tucker! It’s a great problem to have when there is more talent than can fit on a 25 man roster!
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Until he plays himself out of the job, I agree, I would put Marwin in at 1B/3B and give some days off to Valbuena and Singleton… assuming they both make the April roster. However, I remain less enthused about him getting meaningful AB than most here. Keep him playing regularly, say 250-300 AB total for the year, and I think his versatility helps win a lot of games. Putting him the lineup everyday exposes some of his weaknesses.
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What are the Yankee’s right-handed pitchers doing to our left-handed batters? 5 ks in 4 innings, and 4 of the 5 ks were by guys batting from the left side vs. a Yankee righty. The LH hitting victims so far are Gonzalez, Valbuena, Tucker, and Single-Carter-ton. By the way, with those 5 Ks, we have drawn 0 base on balls.
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Add another lefty, Andrew Aplin, to that strange stat. Are the Yankee pitchers throwing screwballs and splitters?
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One weird thing I had seen in doing some research on Mr. Single-not-a-ton….
MLB career
Against righties – .144 BA / .274 OBP / .562 OPS
Against lefties – .256 BA / .343 OBP / .809 OPS
Does he force himself to stay in against left handers, but flies open against righties?
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Stingy day – both sides today, and while the Yanks only have struck out once they also only have 3 hits and a walk through 4.
The Astros problems may come from ….. no Altuve, Springer, Correa, or Gomez. Spring training lineups do not necessarily reflect anything close to a regular season lineup….
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Who do you think will be the first Astro hitter this Spring to reach:
a. 10 hits [presently, A.J. Reed, Tyler White, & L. Valbuena share the lead with 4]
b. 10 RBI [presently Matt Duffy and Valbuena share the lead the lead with 4]
c. 5 EBHs [presently Duffy and George Springer share the lead with 3]
d. 5 BBs [presently Duffy, Bregman, Gonzalez and Worth share the lead with 2];
e. 5 HRs [presently Duffy has 3, and no one else has more than 1]
f. 10 Ks [presently Singleton is the Astros’ worst with 5]
And who will be the first Astro pitcher this Spring to reach:
a. 10 IP [presently Michael Feliz leads the team with 5.0 IP (and a 0.00 ERA)]
b. 5 saves [presently Jandel Gustave leads the team with 2]
c. 10 Ks [presently Hoyt and Gustave are tied for the team lead with 5]
d. 10 BBs [presently Hoyt and Peacock are tied for the team worst with 3]
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Singleton just added to his team K ‘lead’. He now has struck out 6 times in 13 Spring Training ABs – without a BB.
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Regarding saves, Juan Minaya just got his 2nd of the Spring to tie Gustave. Our only Blown Saves so far are by Cabrera, Brady Rodgers, and some guy named Giles.
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The name that I see more in your stats is….Matt Duffy. His name keeps popping up in everyone’s post!! You don’t get named MVP of AAA championship for nothing.
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Minaya gets into trouble in the ninth giving up a double with no outs, but gets the double play ball. Moran to Worth to Reed to preserve the 1-0 shutout of the Yankees.
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Interesting stats. The 5 players who have gotten the most ABs in the 6 games we have played thus far are:
With 14 ABs:
– Tyler White [.286/.286/.857]
With 13 ABs
– Jon Singleton [.154/.154/.615]
With 11 ABs
– Jake Marisnick [.273/.333/.879]
– Preston Tucker [.274/.333/.970]
– A.J. Reed [.364/.417/.871]
The competition is indeed heating up at 1B . . . and then there’s Marisnick.
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Duffy should be in the conversation too.
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I dunno, Dave. With 8 ABs over 6 games, all he has managed so far has been .375/.500/2.000 with 3 HRs and 4 RBIs.
In other words – the kid comes to play – and I agree he definitely deserves to be in the conversation. Singleton? We’ll have to see a lot more hitting and a lot less striking out over the next few games, or I think Fresno will be calling his name.
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Today’s math lesson:
K*AB/CC = JS
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At first when I saw CC I thought ‘what does Carlos Correa’ have to do with it. Then I remembered Chris Carter once disgraced the same initials.
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Six games – and no appearance yet by Luke Gregerson. Is he healthy? I thought after Giles bombed his first appearance so horribly that Gregerson would be begging for the ball the next day. Of course, in fairness I guess it should be noted that we haven’t seen Dallas Keuchel or Lance McCullers, Jr. yet either.
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The Astros relievers won’t get a lot of work until the minor leaguers go to the minor league camp in the next couple of weeks.
The best way to keep your relievers fresh for the playoffs is to not work them too much in the spring.
I love seeing the AA and AAA relievers get a looksee so they know what the pressure is like right now and sStrom can give them the advice they will need to become the bullpen of 2017 and beyond.
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I believe Gregorson is still recovering from the oblique injury he got right before the start of spring training
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The lineup for today’s Fister vs.Scherzer match-up is out. This is the first time this Spring that the Astros starters [except for Moran at 3rd and Reed at DH] are playing together in the same lineup.
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It’s early, but Houston has hit 11 HRs(second in baseball behind the Tiger’s 12).
They have given up zero home runs(tied for best in baseball).
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That is really good news, OP1 – especially the latter stat about zero home runs allowed. By the way, did the source you consulted happen to also advise where our team ranks thus far in OBP, BARISP, and Ks?
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Astros 26th in BARISP at .204 and 18th in OBP at .336. You can see how radical stats are right now with that super high OBP and still be only 18th.
Astros 4th in Ks with 55.
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OK – this is not meant to be negative, but you have to kind of look at how many ABs and IPs have been by guys who will actually make the 25 man roster and against who they are hitting and pitching. Not a real high percentage.
I believe in this team – I just never know how serious to take ST performance.
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Dan, my original comment was only pointing out how the Astros have lots of power, and their pitching staff is adept at keeping the the ball in the park. I wasn’t actually getting into a stats mode.
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Dan, from my perspective I know that the stats to date involve not only a very small sample size – and also that they involve a lot of people who the FO is not likely to put on the field in April. There are three reasons I have started to talk about stats so early:
1. there has been very little posting by anyone on the blog, and I am trying to generate/facilitate some conversation;
2. Most of the people who have been getting the large number of ABs and IPs may be important to our future – esp. in 2017 and beyond. I don’t really care what Rasmus’, Gomez’, Feldman’s, Fister’s, Castro’s, Gattis’, or Valbuena’s stats are in ST, you see – because I truly don’t see any of those guys being on this club after this year. Since they are here now, I certainly hope they contribute something positive to the team in 2016, and provide a viable bridge to the real talent that is coming behind them, but we should by now suffer from no illusions that any of those guys are ever going to transform and contribute substantially more than they did in 2014 or 2015. I also don’t worry about what Springer’s, Altuve’s, Correa’s, Keuchel’s, McHugh’s, or McCullers’ stats are in ST because we already know each of them is a jewel; and
3. We saw last year that over the course of the year a team with a high HRs but low OBP and atrocious BARISP cannot consistently beat either the Texas Rangers or the Kansas City Royals. I want to keep watching the stats to see who of the young guns is, on a day by day basis, contributing to raising the OBP and BARISP – and who just hits an occasional [almost always solo] HR.
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OK, Mr. Bill and OP – was not trying to criticize – just voicing that I don’t know what it means plus or negatively….
So today when I check in – the Astros have 5 hits out of the first 4 in the lineup and 0 hits from the last 5….just like last season….oh well…..
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And I have another post in the can – waiting to get posted.
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What he [A.J. Hinch] said: “I’m really proud to be the manager of this group…I love it here”
What he meant: “How many chances in life does a guy get to manage a group of young, energetic, driven but still teachable players like we have in Houston right now – who have both the level of talent and the work ethic to make them favorites to not only win their division but go to and win the World Series? This guy ain’t goin’ nowhere!
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And….I’m glad he isn’t going anywhere! One of the biggest plusses this year, is that his club has stayed in tact and genuinely like one another. Believe me, those young guys in camp with these guys notice the clubhouse atmosphere, and that makes them want to join in the fun that much more! I love A.J. Hinch, who knows he might be our Joe Maddon!
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I was just reading that Crane extended Hinch in the off-season but it was not really announced and we still don’t know how much or how long. I guess this front office holds those things in close to their vests….
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Luke Gregerson, please get well soon!
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I just touched home plate and rang the bell!! I went around the chemo room, and said my goodbyes to all the people who are in a fight for their lives with this horrible disease. Most of them are women that cancer has taken their dignity away. I can never thank you enough for praying me through these long weeks, when I wasn’t very lovable. This blog…you friends…. have given me something else to think about over the last three months. Thank you for your encouragement along the way. I’m a strong woman, and a strong Christian….I heard your prayers, and so did my Lord.
The only draw back is, how long it will take me to get my strength back. I hope to see all my friends down at my favorite watering hole in the Heights on Friday! Even though I can’t have an adult beverage until the end of the month. A heartfelt thank you to each and every one of you. Love, Becky
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You are an inspiration, Becky!
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This is great to hear, Becky. I just had lunch with a friend from work who is almost through his second bout of chemo after some surgery. He is doing surprising well and it gives me hope to see how well they can take on this terrible disease.
Get strong and stay with us a long time. Prayers will continue to be with you.
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Congratulations! You should have just enough time to regain your strength before the real games (and discussions) start!
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Congratulations
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You were walking right beside me Sandy…..you’re the best!
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