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Astros 2016: Back to the future with projections


Predicting anything is a very inexact science, which is why Biff became a Gazillionaire in Back to the Future Part II by taking a sports almanac from the future back to 1955. One web site has compiled what they call a consensus of seven different sports mystics predicting what MLB hitters and pitchers will produce in the coming season.    http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/projections/hitters.php

Toodling around the different positions with an eye specifically to the Houston Astros reveals a number of interesting nuggets and the feeling that in some cases the consensus may not end up being as accurate as Biff was.

  • Carlos Correa. Their predictions that Correa will put up 24 HR, 93 RBIs, 21 SBs with a .277 BA and a .812 OPS make him a formidable offensive weapon at a non-offensive position. But considering he had a .857 OPS and was on a 162 game arc for 36 HR and 111 RBIs as a 20 year old rookie, this prediction almost feels disappointing.
  • Jose Altuve. He is predicted to be one of the top offensive 2Bs with 90 Runs scored, 38 SBs, 11 HRs and 61 RBIs while producing a .310 BA and a .782 OPS. Again, this is a strong season for a 2B, but a small step down from 2015 when he had 15 HRs, 66 RBIs and a .812 OPS.
  • Starting pitching. They are showing 6 main SPs with varying numbers….Dallas Keuchel 15-9 / 3.06 ERA, Collin McHugh 12-10 / 3.79 ERA, Lance McCullers Jr. 10-8 / 3.63 ERA, Mike Fiers 9-8 / 3.81 ERA, Doug Fister 8-8 / 4.24 ERA and Scott Feldman 6-6 / 4.15 ERA. Keuchel and McHugh, while still pitching well would total 12 less wins than in 2015, however the 60 wins predicted here would be more than the 55 wins that the top 6 SP’s totaled in 2015.
  • Closer. While A.J. Hinch keeps his choice of closer close to his vest, the projection experts say that Ken Giles and his 2.66 ERA will pocket 34 out of 37 save opportunities in 2016.
  • Outfield. Ignoring Evan Gattis (who appears in both the DH and OF areas due to his handful of LF appearances), the top 3 Astro OFs are solid, but unspectacular. George Springer (26 HR, 76 RBIs, .258 BA, .801 OPS), Carlos Gomez (20 HR, 71 RBI, .261 BA , .751 OPS) and Colby Rasmus (23 HR, 62 RBI, .234 BA, .750 OPS) are backed up by Preston Tucker (11 HR, 36 RBI, .248 BA, .730 OPS) and Jake Marisnick (who apparently did not learn to hit in the off-season – 6 HR, 28 RBI, .239 BA, .643 OPS). So, sorry George you will have a better, but not spectacular year.
  • First base. The big news here is that the experts predict that A.J. Reed will basically split the ABs at first base with Jon Singleton (351 vs. 331 ABs), but somehow Reed’s .260 BA/ .774 OPS as compared to Singleton’s .214 BA/.720 OPS will result in the same 15 HRs and only 2 more RBIs (49 vs. 47).

So where do you fall on all this prognostication?

  1. A lot of these numbers are unsurprisingly close to what these players put up in 2015. Which ones do you think will more likely go up? Go down?
  2. Any reason to believe this is any more accurate than what the fair folks here at the blog can do?
  3. Is there anything else in the web site that you would like to point to such as DH, 3B, C, or other relievers?

 

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About Dan P

Dan Peschong is a full time engineer and a long time Astros lover from the days of Joe Morgan to the days of Jose Altuve.

135 comments on “Astros 2016: Back to the future with projections

  1. astrocolt45
    March 9, 2016

    Dan P
    March 8, 2016

    And I have another post in the can – waiting to get posted.

    (So my question a day later is, was “can” and euphemism for “toilet”?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dan P
      March 9, 2016

      ac45 – Chip has to actually do the posting and sometimes when he is travelling on business he does not have the access to do it. So, no can did not mean the WC, the loo, etc.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. 1oldpro
    March 9, 2016

    A few observations:
    -Marwin knows he has made the team(barring a trade) and will see few ABs until most of the kids get sent down. He gets a rare start today.
    -Who makes the bench and gets the starts at 1B may well be determined by what they show on the practice fields in the morning workouts playing defense. If I were Preston Tucker, I would work out extra taking grounders and learning footwork around that bag. Duffy sure looks comfortable around that bag.
    -Singleton has 8 Ks and no BBs and has two hits, one off a AAA reliever and the other off of Jesse Chavez. Both hits are off RHP.
    -Sclafani is in trouble. If Worth takes a minor league assignment with the Astros, Joe will be a minor league backup.

    Like

    • uncleknuckle
      March 9, 2016

      Yes, 1OP, seems poor Joe is always in the doghouse. I don’t think he’ll ever see a real shot unless he gets a chance to play for another organization. It had to be demoralizing spending half his time riding the pine on a AAA club like he did in 2015 after putting up the numbers he did in 2014. And Worth looks like a pretty good athlete. I think Sclafani needs to go to work for an organization that is just starting the rebuilding process. A situation kind of like ours was a couple of years ago! It’s pretty apparent that Joe is not very highly rated by our organization. Maybe they just want him around for extra depth. I’d just like to see him get a chance to play everyday. Anywhere.

      Like

  3. Mr. Bill
    March 9, 2016

    We no longer have a staff that has given up zero home runs. A lefty-on-lefty oppo boppo by Freddie Freeman against Neal Cotts has ended our games-with-no-homers allowed streak at 7.

    Like

    • Dan P
      March 9, 2016

      Yeah and gave away the 2-0 lead that was built on nice situational hitting by Springer and Correa to move Altuve around, plus an opposite field HR by Castro (yeah!).

      Like

    • Mr. Bill
      March 9, 2016

      The HR allowed total goes up again. At least the only guys who have hit homers against us so far this year play the same position and have the same name [Freeman and Frieman]. I think it is fair to say that Mr. Straily is not exactly having a good spring.

      Like

  4. Mr. Bill
    March 9, 2016

    That’s just Tyler being Tyler. Our first baseman is Jon who?

    Like

  5. Becky⚾
    March 9, 2016

    In 16 plates appearances Singelton is 2 for 16. I think it’s gonna come down to Matt Duffy, or Tyler White……most likely Duffy since he can play 1st and 3rd. I love the way everyone talks about Singelton 17 lbs of “muscle”…..when it appears to be more like the 25lbs he put on over the winter….is Krispy Kreme donuts. Luhnow is losing patience with Jon, REAL quick…..and so are we. Let A.J. Reed finish June in Fresno and see where he is, and where we are. I’ve got this feeling there’s gonna be a big trade very sòon.

    Like

    • Dan P
      March 9, 2016

      I am getting a little uncomfortable with Tyler White and his performance this spring and Duffy too. Don’t they know that Astro 1Bs are supposed to K 40% of the time and hit only occasionally? I can’t picture what it would be like to have a competent hitting first sacker.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Mr. Bill
        March 9, 2016

        Add in a competent hitting 3rd sacker and a competent hitting DH, and you might have a world championship.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Dan P
        March 9, 2016

        The only thing this team is missing is consistent hitting / on-base component. You fill in 2 or 3 of those spots with the right guys and all of a sudden this up and down high scoring / low scoring offense – might put up crooked numbers most every night.

        Like

      • Mr. Bill
        March 9, 2016

        Just theoretically, against righties if Margo was your 3rd sacker, Valbuena your 1st sacker, Preston Tucker your DH, and Castro your catcher . . . .

        And theoretically if against lefties Margo was your 3rd sacker, Duffy was your 1st baseman, White was your DH, and Gattis was your catcher . . .

        Like

      • 1oldpro
        March 9, 2016

        I doubt they want Valbuena playing 1B. He needs to be playing 3B against all RHP. They are paying him $6million to play 3B. I would be ok with Duffy playing 3b against some lefties. He could be a valuable bench player.
        Watching Tucker in LF today, I am looking forward to seeing him at 1B/DH. I know Tucker is a better right fielder than left fielder, but he looks terrible in LF.
        Unless I’m sadly mistaken, White, Reed and Moran could all be playing for the Astros in 2017, perhaps even as starters.

        Like

  6. astrocolt45
    March 9, 2016

    I can not get excited about someone hitting very well the first couple weeks of ST. On the other side, if a guy can’t hit AA pitching, he may not be the best selection come opening day.

    Like

  7. astrocolt45
    March 9, 2016

    Wow, saw the story about Weaver not even throwing 80 MPH with his heater. Just can’t see a pitcher being effective if his change is faster than his heater.

    Like

    • Dan P
      March 9, 2016

      That is amazingly slow – like the fastball of a guy forced to throw a knuckleball.

      Like

    • Tim
      March 10, 2016

      My 13-year old son can hit an 80 MPH heater. I guess he’s ready for the Show.

      Like

  8. uncleknuckle
    March 9, 2016

    Bill, I like Marwin for what he brings as a utility man, but as a corner infielder he’s a soft bat against right handed pitching and a reliable but unremarkable defensive third baseman. We’ve got far too much talent these days for Marwin to become an everyday player.

    Liked by 1 person

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2016 by in Astros.
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