Meetings adjourned: Where Houston stands

Well, that was interesting.

I have a brother who lives in Phoenix and is a big D-Backs fan. All I heard all week was Tony La Russa this and Tony La Russa that. You’d think La Russa was his prom date.

Seeing the Winter Meetings through the eyes of fans from other teams is interesting. One Philly blog speculated that the fourth player in the deal to get Ken Giles was none other than John Singleton. (It was pitcher Thomas Eschelman.)

My D-Backs loving brother was all in on Zach Greinke. Hey, it’s only money (six years, $206 million). And he boasted of the trade that brought Shelby Miller to the desert. Any suggestion that giving up No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson plus Aaron Blair (D-Backs No. 3 prospect at the time) and outfielder Ender Inciarte would come back to haunt ‘Zona was blasphemy on my part … and met with ridicule when Houston sent four players to Philly for Giles. (“Houston did the same thing, only worse!”)

Well, we’ll see. No amount of me explaining the irrelevance of Brett Oberholtzer, the redundancy in our system of Derek Fisher (Hello Daz and the “other” Tucker!), or how Eschelman projects as a middle innings reliever helped make my case.

Oh well. That’s my brother.

So, how are we all feeling after everyone has boarded their flights out of Nashville international Airport?

Here’s what happened in Astros Land:

1. Luhnow sent Vincent Velasquez (the piece of the deal that hurt), Oberholtzer, Fisher and Eschelman to Philadelphia for five controllable years of closer Ken Giles.

2. Luhnow opened up Jim Crane’s wallet and paid (thank goodness!) Tony Sipp $16 million over three years.

3. And no Astros were harmed in the making of the 2015 Rule V draft.

So my question to you is this: How do you feel after the Winter meetings are done?

I read somewhere that Luhnow’s offseason list included a closer (check) a lefty reliever (check) and a starting pitcher (what?). Do the Astros need another starter? Right now, A.J. Hinch can trot out on successive days (I explained to my brother that Greinke and Miller still didn’t make the D-Backs’ rotation as good as Houston’s, but did he listen? No.) Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Lance McCullers, Mike Fiers and Scott Feldman.

I’ll ask again: Does Houston need another starter?

Before the meetings started, Houston gave away Hank Conger, waived goodbye to Chris Carter and traded Jed Lowrie for a AA reliever (albeit a good one). That pretty much sums up Jeff’s winter.

Is he done? Do we hope the messes at first and third base just sort themselves out with what Houston has on hand? Who would you start at the corners right now?

Anyway, now I’m just waiting on the Hall of Fame vote and praying Jeff Bagwell hits 75 percent.

Sigh.

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162 responses to “Meetings adjourned: Where Houston stands”

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  1. 1. SP: You never have too much. And I could see (example only) Kazmir being a better #4 or #5 than Fiers or Feldman. 2. I would like to see an improvement in OBP from someplace. Steamer projects A.J. Reed to play some and Max Stassi to play some this year. Stassi improves the defense but not the offense (unless he returns to prior years form or continues to hit MLB pitching well). And they project Singleton to improve greatly by dropping his K rate. Plus Altuve, Springer, Gomez, and Correa all project a WAR of over 3. So maybe just another year of maturity by several will improve the overall offense.

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  2. During Fresno’s stretch run to the PCL Championship Singleton hit .193/.296/.395 after being sent back down from Houston where he had hit .205/.321/.318. Al the time he’s earning $2million.
    While Singleton’s slashing .193/.296/.395 from 8/3 to 9/6 in Fresno, Tyler White is slashing .351/.471/.550 batting in the #3 spot ahead of Singleton.
    And yet, the job is Singleton’s to lose and nobody in the Astros org even thinks about White.
    Meanwhile, White is playing down in Venezuela while Singleton is not playing at all.
    How is any of this fair? Why is the job Singleton’s to lose?

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    • Oh yes, 1OP, answer the question. Valbuena and Marwin at third, White at first, Tucker at DH. Trade Gattis and Singleton and use their $5+million to go towards that pitcher Luhnow wants. If the pitcher is in the rotation, trade Feldman and there is $8million more for the pitcher.

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  3. 1OP, I think Luhnow is blowing smoke concerning Singleton in hopes of trading him. Luhnow, in my opinion is much too smart to just hand an undeserved position to him, especially with White and Reed ready for the opportunity.

    Heineman not being drafted by another team last Wednesday, tells me that I had him very overrated. I felt sure that some team would have picked him.

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    • Most of the bad teams that picked players in the Rule 5 were in the NL and they have the pitcher batting and could not afford to pick a lite-hitting catcher who was only 24 and have on their team all year. Same with Pena.
      Heineman and Pena would play better in the AL because they can be the light hitting defensive catcher hitting ninth but providing defense. I still think Heineman is going to end up catching in the majors, especially if he is given time to bat from the left side all the time. He is one of the players at Fresno that is facing the most important season of their careers. He joins Moran, Kemmer, Aplin, Musgrove, Kemp, and Feliz as being players that need to step up and claim a place with the Astros. I think, for them, it’s Judgment Year. If They don’t show big stuff in AAA this season either the Astros will have to go shopping or someone will push past them. Valbuena, Castro, Gomez and Rasmus will be FA at the end of the year and the Astros need guys at AAA to make it easy on the Astros to let them walk or pay big bucks next year.

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  4. I also think we’ll see Reed at first and White as our DH, sooner than later. It appears that Singleton will get the benefit of the doubt, but that could change within a month of Spring Training. Singleton will not get handed the job if someone else continues to show that they want it more.

    I’m still thinking that we should have a solid OBP left handed hitter in the two slot, following Altuve. I don’t know who that might be, but I’d really like to see Springer at 3 or 4. Seems that Springer has always been put where he’s needed, rather than where he might most blossom.

    I’d be okay with Gomez moving to the Cubs or Mets or anywhere for that matter if we could find that lefty high OBP bat to hit second and play left. Then I’d move Rasmus to right, Springer to center and leave him alone.

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    • Dare we give Tony Kemp a shot as that #2 left-handed bat playing LF? Lifetime MiLB OBP is .388. He’s got nice speed [35 SBs last year], doesn’t strike out or pop up much, has slash/gap power, and is a play maker.

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      • Sorry, Kemp’s lifetime OBP is actually better than .388 [last year’s combined total]. His lifetime minor league OBP is .393.

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      • Bill, I hope Kemp shows that high OBP in Fresno this year. He would really compliment the top part of the order. Jeez, him and Altuve and then Springer, Correa, Reed, White, et al. This team is going to be so much fun to watch especially if/when our next batch of young guys come on the scene.

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  6. With trading Conger, doesn’t that make Stassi our backup catcher….or do you think Luhnow is going to go shopping for another “big” league catcher? Over the last few weeks several catchers have been traded, and, or picked up…..so I’m not seeing too many options out there to pick and choose from. Just me wondering outloud. As for another starter, I have a feeling Luhnow is going to wait until the madness of paying free agent pitchers $200 + mill a year, have run the table….and when more reasonable options show up. Even Kazmir will probably get more than he deserves.
    I think I’m in the same corner as a lot of you, in thinking either Singelton gets traded over the winter….or if White out duals him for 1st base, he either gets sent back to Fresno, or traded at the break. I’m done with the ongoing experiment at 1st base.
    It’s time to solve the problem. PERIOD. I can live with the Marwin/Valbuena act at 3rd because either one of them are quite capable with the glove, and bat at 3rd.
    The kid we got for Jed, is DANG good, and I fully expect him to start the season in the bullpen……that’s where he ended up to end the season in Oakland. He’s good!

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  7. I don’t see a need to add to the rotation. No team goes the year with five guys getting 30 starts. We have enough at AAA to fill in when people miss time. If it’s not working out at the back end of the rotation there will be opportunities in July.

    Singleton did nosedive in August…but still finished with a .505 SLG. If he brings a lefty, power bat to the lineup, great. If he struggles again…well he knows who all is in the rear view.

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    • Singleton’s SLG tells us one thing: of the hits he got, a lot of them were for extra bases. Singleton’s BA tells us he didn’t get enough hits. Singleton’s career AAA BA tells us why he hasn’t hit in the majors.
      Singleton can’t hit MLB pitching because he’s never hit for average in the minors. He’s either hit for power or struck out or popped up. The guy we see in the majors is the guy we see in AAA. It’s that plain to see. Singleton turned out to be a guy with one tool: power. No hit tool, no run tool, no glove tool, no arm tool and no head tool.

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      • Look, I think it’s fine to hate Singleton and prefer the numbers from White and/or Reed. Heck, even Duffy is more well rounded. The problem is you start discounting Singleton for the same reasons people discounted Delino DeShields, JR., last off season. Forget the five tools and look more closely at whether a player can generate value. Both those guys get on base. Last year’s .359 OBP was the lowest of Singleton’s minor league career…and it was dragged down by his .297 OBP in August.

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      • I don’t hate Singleton. I was always the guy who said he deserved a chance and he has gotten them. I’m glad you mentioned DDJ because he showed no inclination he wanted to play for the Astros either. I think DDJ wanted to move on and I think Singleton wants to move on. I am a firm believer we should give him that chance.

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  8. I am not ready to give up on Singleton after only 430 PAs, but his numbers over that period match with Brett Wallace. He needs to improve and do it quickly or we need to give someone else those ABs. Unless he has dramatically improved, he is still a liability with the glove.

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  9. * How do you feel after the Winter meetings are done? *

    Like I just came from the doctor’s office with a new set of prescriptions. The doc is always fired up about all the new medicine he has doled out, which he insists, based upon clinical trials, should cure all my ills. We’ll see, doc. Will these new additions perform as advertised in real time? Let’s schedule a follow-up evaluation right about the time of the All-Star Break in 2016.

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    • Mr. Bill……..I laughed out loud when I read your post!! You make my day with your wicked humor! With a husband home with cellulitis in his leg…..I can relate!!
      Thanks for the good laugh!

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    • Becky: I hope we give Stassi a shot. He’s actually gone through some pretty hard knocks (fastball to the face!) and bounced back. And even though the sample size is incredibly small he has risen to the occasion and hit decently against MLB pitching. I do expect he will be as good as Conger was offensively FROM THE RIGHT SIDE. Conger was our best left handed hitting catching option but he was pretty underwhelming hitting against lefties. Stassi would have to be as good as Conger defensively. If the team can just play .500 baseball with him behind the plate he will be a net gain over Conger.

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  11. I would like to see another left handed starter and Kazmir would fill the bill nicely. I think he might give a discount to the Astros and most likely the A’s so he might not be ultra pricey. As for Singleton, giving him the first base job strikes me as a social promotion and not a merit promotion. Kind of like what has happened with Appel, who I hope will finally start to justify his #1 draft pick status. Singleton just does not strike me as a guy with much want to. Kind of the classic good natural athlete who is satisfied with being OK but lacks the drive to be special. I want special. I want White ahead of him.

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  12. For the record, I’m fine with our rotation. If Luhnow has extra cash, I say get a better DH or a Major League first baseman. That said, I’m happy to let White and Duffey slug it out with Singleton and Valbuena for time at first and/or third. Heck, someone needs to give Tucker a first baseman’s mitt and see if he can scoop a low throw.

    Frankly, if Luhnow is done, I’m fine with that. Just don’t do anything crazy. I keep hearing Springer’s name in trade rumors. Gomez too. Let’s leave our outfield as is.

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    • to answer brian’s question, how do i feel after the winter meetings are done? well like james brown – i feel good! we got a hard throwing closer, a reliable left handed reliever and with the exception of vv, none of the players traded would have helped us that much this coming year. win for us.

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  15. With Heyward going to the Cubs they are in desperate need of a CFer unless they plan to play Heyward there. I wonder if we can work out a deal centered around Gomez and Soler. We can move Springer or Rasmus to CF and plug in Soler in RF.

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    • With Soler we’d get less defense and plenty of strike outs. At just 23, he’s going to grow, but is he the guy we need now? I’d rather have Gomez. Tim, where’s
      that lefty bat I’m looking for to play left and hit second? That might convince me that Gomez can go.

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      • IF we want to see Go-Go gone – and I don’t think anyone here is really all that excited about it – the simple reason is because when we needed a superstar to get us over the hump, and were paying him our share of an $8M salary, he unfortunately was not as advertised and did not step up for us. He hit a mere .242/.288/.670 while with us last year, provided just 4 HR, drove in only 13 RBI, and had an over 20% strikeout rate – albeit while playing exciting if not perfect defense]. Nevertheless, GO-GO is only on the payroll at $8M for one more year, and we have hopes he’ll get back something of his past form, so no one is screaming for him to be traded the way some are about Evan Gattis [.245/.286/.748, with 27 HRs and 88 RBIs – but who cannot play a defensive position].

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      • I like Gomez and don’t necessarily want to get rid of him, but just thinking of way to parlay that 1 year of team control into a younger, talented player with longer control. The Steamer projections are fairly close for Gomez and Soler except for the defense, but that’s where Jake comes in to help out. I would really like Schwarber, but I don’t think the Cubs will trade him.

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      • Devin, I’m perfectly happy with Gomez, but if that still to be named lefty bat to hit second and play left came along, then I’d listen.

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      • I put Gomez into the Neshek and perhaps Conger throwing category. They appeared to be playing “hurt” toward the end of the season. For his career, Gomez has been a very good performer. Lets hope for a rebound.

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      • Tim, but it’s against the rules for Soler to hit and Jake to play D for him unless the AL has snuck another funky rule into play.

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  16. I enjoyed this entry Brian T – it echoed things I was thinking after the last couple weeks of the off-season about the front office’s performance.
    – I was not glad that we had to give up on Carter and Conger, but I was glad they were able to do that.
    – I was glad that they made a reasonable trade for a big arm who has performed excellently to date and is under team control for the next half of decade.
    – I was glad they are bringing Tony Sipp back who was very good for this team the last couple of seasons.

    With Feldman’s injury history and the fact that his contract runs out this season – I would say it would not hurt to pick up another starter. I know Kazmir was a bit rough here last season, but looking at his lack couple of seasons, he performed like a #2 starter or better. Last season his ERA was the 4th best among qualifiers and if you think that was not his real level – his ERA in 2014 was 21 best among qualifiers. But I would not pay $20 million a year for him. If they can get him for $12 million a year for 3 years, I think that would make them better.

    I would give Valbuena a little more leash at 3B with Duffy behind him and maybe Moran closing in. I would put White at 1B until Reed was ready.

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      • I think it’s gonna take a leeetle bit more to sign Kazmir. He’s probably going to want in the $12-14 mill to sign here. Even the not so good starting pitching is getting big pay days this winter.

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      • I read it wrong….but that’s a lot of money to pay him since he was less than stellar last season for us! I hope….if they do resign him it’s not for one of those ridiculous contracts the other pitchers signed for. We have some pretty good arms ready to Mae the jump in 2017….or maybe even 2016!!

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      • It just me I’m sure but I have zero desire to see Kazmir in an Astro uniform again. I lobbied for him for months last summer and man I didn’t realize what a Non Gamer he is. He doesn’t fit what I hope is the new Astro culture. Mid season lets give a couple kids a shot.

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  17. I hated the move to the A.L. when it happened, but I’m thankful now after looking at what the Cubs are doing. The Cardinals and Pirates are still very good as well. That division has turned into a beast.

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    • Tim, I was watching the standings near the end of the season and thinking part of the “turnaround” and getting to the playoffs was that move. Now if the AL West will not turn into the NL Central, we should be in the playoffs for a while.

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  18. I gotta have faith that Luhnow will do the right things.
    1. Almost all of us saw Conger and his catching problems. Luhnow saw it, too, and traded the guy for cash.
    2. We didn’t think Qualls was doing the job and Luhnow left him off the playoff roster and bought out his option.
    3. Chris Carter? Done!
    4. We needed a LF. Rasmus stayed, in a weird sorta way. Job Done.
    5. Thatcher? done
    6 Sipp? Done
    7. Giles? Done
    8. Top 8 prospects? All here
    9. Rule 5? He aced it!
    10. All our favorite players? Still here.
    11. Perez? Gone
    I just have to believe he will do the right thing about 1B and DH before we go to war in April, because, so far, he’s done the things he needed to do.

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    • I was amazed that he traded Conger and cut Carter…I honestly was not expecting that (esp. Conger).

      I’m actually impressed and admit that I was wrong.

      This bodes well for us in 2016, I think.

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    • Those are some excellent points, OP. I know some here don’t trust Luhnow, but he seems to recognize the deficiencies on this team and is correcting them. Let’s see how it plays out during ST before we make assumptions he is going to trade the farm and keep non-producing players.

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      • I had and have some reservations about JL. However, as I posted a few weeks back, no one in their right mind would expect him to do positive harm to the team. It is just a disagreement with his priorities and mine as a fan. However, it is easy for me (or anyone to say) “trade him”, “dump him”, “sign him”, etc. etc. But JL has to work with what other teams offer in return and he has to work within a budget.

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  19. I still have my reservations. But he’s had a stunning week. If I see Singleton and Gattis in the Opening Day line up, well then I’ll probably still have those reservations.

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    • Totally agree and I may eat my words, but I still would like to see Valbuena dealt. wouldn’t a trade with Va,. Gattis and singleton get us something solid in return?

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  20. Well like I tell the engineers I work with the only employees who don’t make a mistake are the ones who don’t do anything.
    Luhnow has had to totally remake a team and a farm system and he has made a lot of moves to incrementally improve the team. He has made some mistakes but I am happy that he is willing to cut ties and admit a trade might be a mistake.
    I’m happy where we are.

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    • DanP: I think if most of us were honest, we would say that we agreed back in the Summer that the FO needed to try to improve the team. We would also agree, in the short run, Gomez and Kazmir should have upgraded the team. Then we got to watch what happened for the rest of the season and those two trades did not produce spectacular results. For me it is a little disingenuous to harp on JL now for making those trades when on the date they were made, I would have done the same. Because I have no knowledge of the last weeks offer/counter-offer, he may have made some tremendous decision to turn down trades for 1B and DH.

      He does not have a pat hand, but he should not discard 4 and hope to hit on the draw.

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      • Another great point, AC. The vast majority of us wanted upgrades done at the trade deadline last year and, at the time, Kazmir was pitching like a #2, if not a #1. In addition, Springer was injured and most on here weren’t comfortable giving Jake the full-time job as we needed more offense. He brings in Gomez who is an elite player, when healthy. Now, so far those trades haven’t worked out for the Astros, although Gomez did help in the playoffs, but it’s easy to criticize a trade after it happens and the results aren’t what we expected, but you can’t predict injuries or how a player will perform after being traded. You can only make educated assumptions based upon recent past performance. What gives me hope is, like many on here are saying now, that he recognized Conger was a mistake and moved on without exasperating the problem. He recognized Carter wasn’t worth $5.5M and non-tendered him. Gattis has issues, but his BABIP last year indicates he may have a positive improvement in 2016, but if he doesn’t I am comfortable that Luhnow will not keep him as DH all season. We have alternatives in the organization with White, Preston Tucker and Reed, among others. So far, he seems to be making the moves this offseason that most of us have wanted.

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  21. Either A) Luhnow and his guys are either reading this blog and taking our advice or B) We should be applying for any open GM positions. Looks like a win-win for the Chipalatta’s.

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    • We have a lot of folks focusing on a narrow subject – the Astros – so the Front office could do worse than reading the deep thoughts here – right?

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      • True. Still, if he trades Gattis and Singleton and promotes White and Reed, Signs Cueto and trades Feldman, promotes Heineman and trades Castro, trades Fields and adds Hoyt, I am going to redo my resume’.
        Who am I kidding? All those things would just make the team younger, better and control the payroll with two aces. It’s not happening. Head slap!

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  22. Questions I have:
    I wonder who the Astros think is the LMJ of 2016. Who do they believe can break into the rotation from our minors this season, if anyone?
    Who is this year’s Preston Tucker, first guy promoted as a position player? Is it Preston Tucker?
    Will one of our flamethrower bullpen prospects find that two pitch command and explode from the minors to the major league bullpen this year? Who’s most likely?
    Are guys like Guduan and Hoyt and Gustave allowed to go to Winter ball and work mostly on their secondary pitches, or do they go down there and just throw their fastballs for one inning?

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    • And what we don’t know (as an example), who did they tell to “throw your slider no matter the count until you can control it” or who they told “treat every pitch thrown to you as a curve ball and you will stay down until you can the curve.”

      So much of the minors is developmental. So they may have a couple that we don’t have much use for that may be ready to turn the corner. That is why stats in the minors do not always translate to stats in the majors.

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  24. Did anyone else get an alert that Mark Appel is also in the deal? I got an MLB alert that the deal is official and it’s a 7-player trade with Appel included.

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  25. “The Astros have acquired right-handed pitcher Ken Giles and shortstop Jonathan Arauz from the Phillies in exchange for right-handed pitcher Mark Appel, right-handed pitcher Harold Arauz, right-handed pitcher Thomas Eschelman, left-handed pitcher Brett Oberholtzer and right-handed pitcher Vincent Velasquez. The announcement was made by Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow.”

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  28. Wow! That is crazy. The Astros must love the Shortstop.
    The Astros must not have wanted to give up their top college draftee outfield prospect.
    Five pitchers for a closer and a 17 yo SS.
    That deal is not the sweetheart deal we heard about.
    Did Appel wear out his welcome, or was he the piece the Phillies would not be denied.
    Can’t wait to find out Luhnows thinking on this one.
    Giles’s 5 year potential as a closer during the Astros’s best chance of a championship run has to be the crux of the deal from our side.

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      • Tim, do you get the feeling that this tells us what we needed to know about our pitching prospects, when we would not trade Musgrove for Kimbrel, but would trade Appel and VV for Giles? Or is this just about Giles’s five years of control?

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    • You talking about Luhnow *thinking*??? Exactly what I thought he would do………..
      Give up waaay too many prospects for a closer. Luhnow and *THINK* do not belong in the same sentence.

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  31. DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY INSIGHT ON Harold Arauz? I HAVE NEVER HEARD OF HIM BEFORE? AND WHAT ABOUT THIS SHORTSTOP THAT GOT INCLUDED IN THE DEAL?
    I ORIGINALLY LIKED THE DEAL NOW I’M NOT SURE HOW I FEEL ABOUT IT

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  32. Oops! Maybe I spoke too soon. Sure didn’t see this one coming. I could see Appel straight up for Giles but what in the world do we need with another SS.Correa, Bregman, and now Arauz? I’m confused.

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  35. -Yesterday when I read about TJ Surgery guys needing it again in six years or so, I thought about Velasquez having had it in 2011 and then not using him in the playoffs or at the end of the year.
    – Now I can finally say what I’ve been thinking for the last year: I am afraid of waking up one morning and finding out that Mark Appel has left baseball and taken a job as a Youth Minister.
    – I took a look at Derek Fisher as a Phillie and not an Astro, I am pushing my loyalty objectiveness close to the cliff.
    -Quietly, the Astros have SS Bregman, their #1 prospect., Miguelangel Sierra, an 18yo SS who is their #13 prospect, and Jonathan Arauz, a highly regarded 17 yo SS. How will the Astros feel when they have to sign Correa to a deal three or four times higher than any deal they ever made?
    -Will the Phillies’ fans show Appel brotherly love if he is a bust?
    – Can any of the five pitchers we sent to the Phils actually swing a bat? Have any of the five ever had an at bat since high school? Maybe Ober?

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  36. I leave town for one day and you let all Hell to break loose.
    Did Luhnow read my comment about making mistakes and decide to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory?
    I don’t like this deal as much – I would rather trade an OF than more pitching

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    • I was stunned because I thought the trade was done. But it wasn’t.
      The Astros parted with Appel. That tells me what I didn’t know, that they were not nearly as attached to him as they were to other prospects and it has to go back to what he has not done.
      On the other hand, it does say something about Luhnow, again. He is not afraid to make a move to get the Astros to where he wants them to be, even if it means admitting that his #1 draft pick “wasn’t all that” as people like to say now. We talked about this in this blog before the trade came down. Luhnow is not bulldogging his pride. He’s going for a championship and he looks good doing it.
      Even as he announced this deal, he said he was going after a starting pitcher and it could get creative.
      Hang on, this could be some ride!

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  37. To play Devuls Advocate I have to wonder if something came up in Fisher’s physical to change the deal. Seems very strange that this version of the deal did not leak before today. I wonder if they were still negotiating while awaiting the physicals. Could be an interesting back story.

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  38. I think it’s obvious: Luhnow got a plane from Nashville and was kicking himself that Dave Stewart traded away a former 1.1 in a severe overpay and upstaged him. Touché, Luhnow.

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  39. Every single guy in our minor league system, and any guys Luhnow drafts from now on should be given a note…..that says, you are only considered as “cash”. Since this owner has a vice grip on his wallet, every one of you will be used as dollar bills. I wonder if White, and A.J.Reed got the memo.

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  40. I wasn’t expecting the trade for Giles to turn out the way it did – I don’t think anyone not employed in the Astro’s front office did. But I’m really not disappointed that Appel was included. In fact, I think Jeff may have done a really smart thing, selling Appel while his value is still high. Another mediocre season from him, and maybe no one would offer anything for him.

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  41. If Appel was drafted in the 3rd round would anyone be up in arms about his inclusion in this trade based on how he’s performed in the minors? I think most are over reacting because he was a 1-1. Again, let’s get away from PAS and see how it plays out. What has Appel done, other than be drafted 1-1 to make everyone suddenly feel like we gave up too much? Just yesterday people were concerned because we lack OF depth and included Fisher. The one position where we have depth is pitching. I would rather have Musgrove and Martes over Appel. Take a deep breath and see what happens. Giles has legitimate major league stuff and is more proven than Appel. I still think VV is the big loss in this trade.

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    • He’s been up in the majors for more than a partial season. He came up in June 2014 and he’s been in the majors ever since. He’s only been a CLOSER for a partial season.

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  43. Forty players are drafted every year, give or take. Appel has underperformed. White is the best player of that draft class, he might be the only thing that holds the 2013 class together. Kemp could be a player but I don’t know if that opportunity will be with Houston.

    You only need 2-3 players a draft to become impactful. You would like more, but most teams only get that.

    I don’t mind including Appel, I wasn’t a fan when we drafted him, there were 4-5 better picks IMO, and I said it at the time. I think Bregman will probably be a better player than Appel but I don’t think he is first rounder stuff either. As well as Luhnow has done in mid and late rounds, finding White, Reed, etc., his reputation is living off that 2012 1st round with Correa and McCullers. Outside of 2012, he has been out scouted for the premier players. How as A.J. Reed not a first rounder? I think a few clubs are going to be wondering the same thing in 3 years.

    Giles – is a bat misser. Bigtime. His command has been up and down, but at 26 he will be entering his prime for that aspect of his game. He will be in the top half of closers in baseball, and could become a top third guy. I look forward to what he brings. The loss of Velasquez is the worst part of this, if VV stays healthy he has ace type stuff, but his track record suggests Philly is taking a big chance on that.

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  45. For those of you born after WWII, I know these stories are boring. But indulge me one more time. I went to Beaumont to see a game in 1952 and Jim Greengrass hit a home run. He was my hero. He was going to be the first Hall of Famer that I saw in person. I checked his box score every morning. He went up and performed at HOF level in my mind. He was on his way. He was my first lesson in being great in the minors does not make you great in MLB, nor does your first year or two. We can be passionate but also objective.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenji02.shtml

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  46. So you wonder if this is the kind of trade where 3 years from now they will say “What were they thinking?” And it could be about either team.
    JL has a propensity to trade away pitchers. At some point that may bite him.

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    • That’s my point. I’m not in love with Appel either, but to give up two AAA pitching prospects plus other prospects for one relief pitcher and a low level shortstop is a lot. The Astros ( hopefully) won’t have high draft picks for a long time. They may need trade pieces going forward. They certainly won’t have the budget for free agency.
      I’m not saying VV and Appel are better than Giles. I’m saying if we keep trading 4 or 5 for 1 or 2. We’re going to run out of pieces to trade later on.

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      • Sandy, this is a perfect point. I think Giles is the piece we need. That said, it’ll be hard to get any other pieces.

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  47. Per story on MLB.com: “Concerns about the physical of one of the players heading to the Phillies caused the deal to be augmented. Astros Minor League outfielder Derek Fisher had been part of the original four-player return, but he stays with Houston while Appel, Jonathan Arauz and Harold Arauz were added.”

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    • There has been speculation it was either Fisher’s or VV’s physical that caused the trade to be amended. My guess is on VV due to his past injury history, but I am sure we will find out very soon.

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  48. By the way, don’t discount the addition of Jonathan Arauz in this trade. He was a highly regarded young prospect in the Philly system. Luhnow has had some success with the DTI (Designated throw-in) in trades (see Martes and Hoyt).

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      • I expected someone to reply with just that comment. My point is, when you get a DTI, you don’t expect anything from them and the success that Luhnow’s DTI’s have had in the minor leagues has far outweighed what you would expect from a DTI. Thus, based upon performance to date, he has been very successful.

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  49. Nance, you are correct and one can add any trade of a MLBer for prospect(s) fits that criteria. It is easy to grade a Lawrie for Donaldson trade, but it becomes difficult to immediately grade a MLBer for prospects. Look at the Astros trades for Hunter Pence and/or Michael Bourn. Lots of high prospects but none (as of today) match the performance of either of them at that time. Or you could add Hunter to SF and the haul the Phillies got in return. Prospects are always just that. But when your team is in the cellar, you have to make those trades or wait 5 years for a draftee to develop. And when you need just a piece or two, the team has to find a “seller” and they normally want a haul of prospects.

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  50. On the MLB Trade Rumors site there is a note about Appel’s fastball not being a plus-pitch despite being consistently clocked in the mid-90s and his delivery not being very deceptive. Also, it says some scouts see him sticking in a rotation but others think he is destined to be a setup man. I don’t see a great loss in including him in this trade.

    I do think we need to concentrate on finding more pitching in the future. At this moment, I think we are OK, but it’s going to be very hard to trade more pitching and not feel the pinch. Besides, with the current price of front line pitching, those are going to be valuable trade pieces.

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    • The good thing is, assuming we sign a SP as a FA such as Kazmir, the Astros will have 3+ years of team control of everyone in the rotation along with some depth in the minor leagues (Wojo, Peacock, Straily, Feliz, Musgrove, Martes, etc.). The Astros will have several drafts to select pitching as well, and the opportunity to trade positional players for pitching (and this does not count signing a pitcher as a FA). I strongly believe if we take out the name Appel and just look at the minor league stats, to date, of the pitcher we traded hardly anyone would blink an eye at including this pitcher (Appel) in a trade. However, since he was a 1-1 people are freaking out thinking we over paid. We may have, but we got a pitcher that misses bats at a high rate, something the Astros desperately needed in the bullpen, and only gave up unproven prospects. By the way, Jonathan Arauz is already the #18 rated player in the Astros system according to mlbpipeline.com.

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      • The Astros certainly can count this trade as a win. I also think the Phillies can consider the trade a win for them. I have no problem with both teams winning this trade. We need to win it for now, they need to win for the future. Good for both teams.

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