2015 regular season predictions; So how’d we do?

Here is a look at how Chip, Dan and Brian’s predictions for the 2015 Astros worked out:

2015 Astros’ projections: Stats, winners and leaders

 

 

Astros wins in ’15

 Chip

85

 Dan

84

 Brian

84
AL West Winner Seattle Oakland Los Anaheim
Astros’ finish Third Tie-Third Third
Most Wins/pitcher 15/Keuchel 16/McHugh 15/ Keuchel, McHugh
Gregerson saves 34 31 33
Most HRs Springer Springer 42 Springer
Most RBI Carter Springer 93 Springer
Surprise player Valbuena Lowrie Lowrie
Comeback player Feldman/Villar Castro Castro
MVP Springer Springer Springer
Altuve over/under BA .334 .330 .331
# players with 150+ Ks 5 4 4 (Rasmus is injured)
# players with 25 HRs 3 3 3
Most likely to be traded at deadline Oberholtzer Feldman Rasmus (if not injured)
Most likely to bomb by deadline Rasmus Hernandez Hernandez
Best Astros’ Rookie Wojciechowski Wojo Wojo
Trade deadline: Buyer or seller? Buyer Buyer Seller, barely

Well – based on this, do not go to Vegas on the happy trios picks, though it was not a total crash and burn.

  • All three were very close on the Astros final total of 86 wins.
  • All picked three different AL West teams to win the division, which did not include the two actual playoff teams, the Rangers and the Astros.
  • All picked the Astros third, which was two games from being true.
  • All chose Dallas Keuchel and or Collin McHugh for the most wins, but all three were below the 20/19 win marks.
  • Dan hit Luke Gregerson’s save total of 31 on the schnozz, while his buddies were close.
  • All genuinely loved George Springer for most HRs and RBIs (well Chip, picked Chris Carter on the RBIs)
  • Chip picked Luis Valbuena as the surprise player (which he was as he hit more HRs and less of anything else than expected). Dan and Brian chose Jed Lowrie, who was totally unsurprising as he missed more than half the season hurt – again.
  • Comeback players Scott Feldman, Jonathan Villar and Jason Castro will be lucky if they are invited to come back next year. (Just kidding Jason – no one wants to live and die with Hank Conger).
  • Jose Altuve was a bit under the .330ish BAs predicted, but his 15 HRs and .812 OPS were solid.
  • Only 2 Astros, Carter and Colby Rasmus exceeded the 150 K mark.
  • All predicted 3 players with 25 HRs or more and nailed it as Valbuena (25), Rasmus (25) and Evan Gattis (27) led the team. Nobody would have predicted eleven Astros with double digit HRs and 2 more at 9 HRs.
  • All picked the wrong three guys to be traded by the deadline, though perhaps not for lack of trying by the front office.
  • Rasmus did not bomb by the trade deadline, but Roberto Hernandez was gone by then.
  • The best Astros’ rookie was not Asher Wojciechowski, though truthfully none of us thought that Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers Jr. would leap from AA to the majors in time to dominate this season.
  • The Astros were a Buyer this trade deadline and not a barely seller.

If you want to check out some other predictions by our beloved commenters click on that link at the beginning of this article.

 

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119 responses to “2015 regular season predictions; So how’d we do?”

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  1. That’s pretty darn good predicting by you guys. So what’s happening in the playoffs? I want to get my bet in!

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  2. That ‘best Astros’ rookie’ thing looks kind of silly now, doesn’t it? But who’d a thunk we’d see what we saw? Wojo was every opposing team’s crooked number inning waiting to happen, and guys named Correa, McCullers, Velasquez and Tucker rocked our world.

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  3. I forgot we all chose George Springer as our MVP – if the man had not had his broken wrist, who knows? He certainly was on fire down the stretch.

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  5. Looking back on the readers predictions good and bad:
    Mr Bill – Identified Hernandez as the one to bomb, but also Joe Sclafani as Surprise player and ROY
    Old pro – Predicted 84 wins and picked Rasmus as comeback player, but thought Gregerson would only have 17 saves
    RJ said Keuchel would flirt with 20 wins but also that Conger would be a big asset
    Steven said two guys would have 150 Ks but that the Astros would have 78 wins and finish 4th
    Dave b had a number of good predictions including Gregerson with 30 saves but the most intriguing was predicting Castro as comeback player with an unremarkable season. He also picked Springer for a 40 HR / 100 RBI year
    Astro colt45 chipped in with tongue in predictions such as the Astros playing 162 games (though it was almost 163 regular season games) and finishing the season in Arizona though it will really end elsewhere

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    • Hey, I am still picking Sclafani as the surprise player of the organization. The surprise, however, is that no one in the organization pays any attention to what he does on the field, yet he just keeps hitting, spark-plugging rallies, and setting his team up for wins. For Fresno last year his BA in 2015 was .300 [behind only Tyler White and Santana for the team lead], and his OBP was .381 [higher than Duffy, Singleton, Preston Tucker, or even Carlos Correa put up for the Grizzlies]. Yet no cup of coffee on a team starving for an offensive spark and anybody with an OBP. Surprise!

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    • Would Rasmus get some consideration for comeback player on the Astros?
      I honestly thought the Astros would trade for a closer at the deadline and move Gregerson to the set-up role. At the trade deadline he had 21 saves. Maybe that’s why they didn’t trade for a closer.

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  6. I spent the whole winter trying to convince my friends that Keuchel and McHugh were not due a regression from 2014. As it turned out, the Astros improved by 15 wins this year and those two pitchers accounted for 16 victories more in 2015 than they did in 2014.
    I thought I remembered predicting 80-82, but Dan says I predicted 84-78, which means my predictions are a lot better than my memory.
    For those who might question whether there is room for the Astros to improve, I offer this: In 2014 Ober and Feldman accounted for 13 of the Astros’ wins. In 2015 Velasquez and LMJ only accounted for 7 Astros wins. This year Feldman and LMJ only accounted for 11 wins combined. There is a ton of room for improvement in the bottom 3 positions in the rotation.

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    • Wins are so unpredictable year to year. Keuchel and McHugh could have identical years and end up with 20 wins between them. The bullpen might not pick up 27 wins next year. But LMJ could easily be a 15 game winner. Luck and run support drive a lot of this

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  7. Where the payrolls of the 10 playoff teams check in for 2015 (the number in front is the rank among the 30 MLB teams), per USA Today:

    1. Dodgers: $230 million

    2. Yankees: $213 million

    8. Rangers: $145 million

    12. Cardinals: $120 million

    15. Cubs: $117 million

    16. Blue Jays: $116 million

    17. Royals: $113 million

    20. Mets: $100 million

    25. Pirates: $86 million

    29. Astros: $69 million

    thought this was interesting

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    • So basically the Yankees spent the equivalent of the Rangers payroll more than the Astros ($144 million more) to get 1 more win and the WC game at home

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      • i think when evaluating the GM and/or front office (a catch all term) you have to look at who had successful seasons. well there is the list of the playoff team above. then look at what each GM or FO had to work with budget wise in putting together their team. I think this is a pretty telling statistic in terms of performance.

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  8. I know we have yet to play our wild-card game, and this is a bit premature, but . . .

    Before making the hard decisions for 2016 here are 2015 Astros stats I want to see, and will expect the FO to look at very carefully:

    The Top 5 and bottom 5 on the team in BARISP, and how they rank.

    The top 5 and bottom 5 in BA-LOAD with the bases loaded, and how they rank.

    The top 5 and bottom 5 in KRISP [striking out with men in scoring position]

    The top 5 and the bottom 5 in K-LOAD [striking out with the bases loaded].

    The top 5 and bottom 5 in EBH-RISP.

    The top 5 and bottom 5 in PO-RISP – getting out by infield pop-out with RISP.

    The top 5 and bottom 5 in PO-LOAD – getting out by infield pop-out with the bases loaded.

    The top 5 and bottom 5 in BA after BB/HBP – i.e. batting average after a player in front of them reaches base via walk or getting hit by a pitch.

    The top 5 and bottom 5 in BA with runner on 1B [i.e. who are our rally sustainers vs. rally killers]

    We lost the division, it seems to me, primarily because we did not hit for average or OBP, did not take advantage of Springer’s, Altuve’s and Correa’s top of the order OBP, and instead relied almost totally on occasional home runs from guys like Carter, Gattis, Valbuena, Rasmus, Gonzales, Tucker, Lowrie, Castro, and Conger.

    Secondly, we lost the division because when Lowrie got hurt Villar was the FOs first choice to replace him and when Castro got hurt Conger was the FOs choice to replace him.

    Thirdly, we lost the division because when the FO made trades for a play-off push, and then considered call-ups, it neglected the positions from which we were getting the least contribution – 1B and 3B, and focused its attention on areas we were already strong [starting pitching and CF]. I will now await my execution.

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    • You make some valid points, but the bottom line is: management made the decision to go with the players they had planned to go with and add veterans to that mix at the deadline. I am hoping they are separating the success of 2015 from the plan and will continue the addition of youth to the team year by year and let some of the low WAR players move on.
      The Astros Wild Card Roster is available for viewing at The Crawfish boxes now. Nine pitchers, two catchers, eight infielders and six outfielders.

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      • I saw that. Note, Conger is the backup catcher. My not what-it-used-to-be memory cannot remember if Stassi is eligible for the playoffs.

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      • I hope we see significant change in the roster next year with a focus on getting more athletic I’m sure we can find guys, probably within our own system, to DH and produce a better WAR and also be able to play a position when it’s necessary.

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    • Triple Like! We may have had the lowest payroll in the playoffs, is that smart or cheap? There were many head scratching decisions or lack there of from the FO down the stretch. We should have won the division period. I’m pumped we are in the playoffs ahead of schedule, but man FO is not on my wow list yet,

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  9. Mr. Bill—I won’t execute you, as noted above, nor even take issue with your well-thought out areas of concern. But– we only lost the division by one game.

    Speaking of the number 1—-the NY Times noted that Alex Rodriguez–who leads the team in HR’s only has 1 hit in his last 60 AB’s. Something to think about this PM.

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  10. I just hope my worst nightmare doesn’t happen tonight:
    *SITUATIONAL HITTING* if the Yankees are willing to give you a bases loaded chance…..hit the DANG BALL!! It’s a big stage our kids are stepping on to tonight, and my hope is they play a clean game, and at the end of tonight’s game they walk off that field proud of themselves….win or lose. And….you can bet your life that I’m sending some prayers their way tonight!! We are blessed to be able to watch these guys playing in Oct for the first time in 10 years! Life is good!! GO’STROS!!!

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  11. This is like showing that picture from high school where I had the weird hair. Thanks for the trip down memory lane.

    I figured a healthy Lowrie would keep Correa on the farm (ha!) and that good pitching would only mean so many wins for the top starters since our offense still wouldn’t score (double ha!) and a healthy Springer (ha ha ha!) would lead this team offensively.

    At least Jason Castro … Wait. Dang.

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  12. Anyone else read the Article is The SPIT Chron, on Lunhwhatever changing the FO and a new direction etc, very strange and confusing article?

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  16. OK folks here we go!! I’m nervous and excited, and near tears with pride for these guys! Maybe it’s just a girl thing……but I’m so full of pride right now I could explode!!!
    GOOD LUCK BOYS!!!

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  19. Like I said earlier…….if the Yankees are going to let these guys load the bases……….
    HIT. THE. DANG. BALL.
    SITUATIONAL HITTING= Killing this team!!

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  25. C’mon, is there really no one better to come out of the bullpen than Qualls? How about Fiers for a couple of innings before we go to Gregorson?

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  28. I remember a time earlier int he season when we could count on our bullpen. You get the lead in the 7th inning and you might as well turn off the game, because it’s over.

    Now I’m wondering whether it would kill Keuchel to throw a complete game tonight.

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  50. I have figured out why we lost the division. We win the wild card, we celebrate , we win the wild card playoff, we celebrate ! We are ahead of the Rangers, we are ahead of the Rangers, 2 celebrations to 1! Go Astros!

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