Free Blog Weekend: What are the chances?

The Friday tradition returns with a Free Blog Weekend where you are free to discuss anything on your mind heading into the final weekend before the All Star break. Of course, you already do an excellent job of keeping the conversation going during the other days of the week, but today you are given permission…..

And in case you need some fodder to chew on and expand upon, here are some conversation starters under the heading “What are the Chances”.

What are the chances….

  • That Luis Valbuena would be leading this team in home runs at this part of the season? It is likely that he would have been considered lucky to break into the top four on the club ahead of Evan Gattis, Chris Carter, George Springer or Colby Rasmus before the season began.
  • That Chris Carter would be batting .190, yet still leading the team in walks at 43? His major league leading 114 Ks will be discussed at another time.
  • That Will Harris, selected off waivers from the D’Backs this off-season, would be leading the team with a 0.91 ERA?
  • That Collin McHugh would have the 38th best ERA (4.54) among AL qualifiers, but would be tied for fourth in wins with nine?
  • That the Astros would be fifth in the league with 4.44 runs/game, while sporting a 13th best .242 BA and an 11th best .308 OBP?
  • That the Astros would be leading their division despite their starting pitching having a mediocre 4.00 ERA?
  • That the Astros would be successful despite having no batter with a .300 or over batting average?
  • That the Astros would be leading their division despite all the starting pitchers not named Dallas Keuchel or Collin McHugh totalling 12 wins at the break?

Some questions:

  • Is this half season plus  success a house of cards, smoke and mirrors or a mirage in the desert? Or is it real?
  • Is there anything you can’t believe is happening with this club?
  • Is there any doubt that A.J. Hinch is the leader in the AL Manager of the Year race?
  • What other subject would you like to talk about heading into this crucial weekend in Tampa for the big club?
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138 responses to “Free Blog Weekend: What are the chances?”

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  1. I think the plan involves winning as many games as possible this season without over paying for additions and not sacrificing the future of the team by going for broke.
    For me that would involve using values put on players for the present and for the future and I don’t know exactly how Luhnow does that.
    But we do know he has a model for the future and that model has the best record in baseball by a whopping margin presently. I expect that players who don’t fit that model will be weaned from the family as each opportunity presents itself. I still look at the players that Luhnow has acquired and drafted with his model in mind and imagine what that team will look like in the next three years and don’t see how this year’s team will fit the coming years, so I just wait for the things to happen that I anticipate will occur in the next six months.

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  2. The early success this year was not exactly smoke and mirrors, but it was also not substantive and real enough that it could be expected to last through the year or into 2016 and beyond. We are not the same team our league opponents were used to seeing back in 2012-2014, and we surprised a lot of people as a result. But once the rest of the league got over the surprise, they began to get serious about how to beat the ‘new, improved Astros’. They have done this well. They exposed our weaknesses. They exposed how flawed we are – and how incapable we are, as currently configured, of being a serious threat for either a league or a world championship. They have learned, for instance – and the world now knows – that we have almost zero plate discipline as a team. They are using that against us, and are exploiting that weakness very, very well. Hence our offensive production is suddenly looking very, very anemic – even though we have several players who have had great talent – and good streaks – of hitting the ball.

    Other teams have also studied us enough to know that our pitchers rely heavily on curves, sliders, and cutters, outside the strike zone, which our guys throw in hopes opposing hitters will chase our pitcher’s pitch instead of waiting for their hitter’s pitch. As a team we just don’t throw many ‘real’ strikes – i.e. strikes that will get called by umpires. Notice how many of our pitchers are always pitching behind in the count now – while other team’s pitchers are almost always pitching ahead-in-the-count against us. We do not have anybody yet who really consistently ‘pounds the strike zone’; we have guys who are good at dangling stuff just off the corners in an effort to tease the fishes [i.e. the hitters who use the Astro-like approach so common in the AL].

    To be successful offensively in the future – now that other teams know who we are – we will have to make some pretty significant positive adjustments. We need to complete our philosophical switch from ‘home run or strikeout’, and swinging for the fences on every pitch, to a solid, patient, ‘get on base’ and move the runner’ base. We have the personnel in the minors – and among those we have already up from the minors like Tucker and Correa and, increasingly Springer – to do this. But we will have to replace/trade off some of the guys who are not built or wired for the new approach [Carter, Valbuena, Castro, Singleton for sure – possibly also Gattis and Santana].

    To be successful from a pitching standpoint in the future – and to go to the highest level of competitiveness – we will have to start mixing in with our Keuchel/McHugh/Devenski/Musgrove types some pitchers who pound the zone with heat, sinkers, and killer change-ups, and who can also occasionally strike guys out with power curves and sliders. This has already begun, with the addition of McCullers and Velasquez. Appel was supposed to be part of this, but he has been slow developing. Bostick, Martes and Eshelman are with us now because they fit this trend.

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    • Bill, I have been searching for scouting on Musgrove and finally TCB had some input on him today. It seems that this 6’5″ 240 power pitcher’s power has returned and his fastball is in the 92-94 MPH range with good movement. I think we can put him in the “pound the zone with strikes” category with that fastball and only 4 walks/75 Ks in 75 innings so far this season.
      Your post was great. I love Keuchel, but I don’t think we can get away with running five straight starters out there with 89mph fastballs, and I know we can’t have all of our relievers come in with the same stuff either. Keuchel is the exception. You look at all the pitchers that have blown us away and all the other starters named to the All Star teams and those guys start with a big fastball. And if McCullers and Velasquez were topping out at 90, we wouldn’t be seeing them pitching in the majors at their age either.
      Kluber was bringing it at 93-94 the other night and for the second time this year I’ll say it: his four pitches have as much movement as any pitcher I have ever seen. That is why Appel or Folty cannot get away with 97mph straight pitches. They have to find out how to get some movement and then spot the ball where it is supposed to go. That is what good pitchers do.
      My dream is to have Keuchel and four other power starters with him, no matter what hand they throw it with. I think McCullers is one of them. I think Musgrove could be another.

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  4. If McHugh can get win #10 tonight I won’t be complaining about his ERA, WHIP, fip, etc.

    I’m not sure about the smoke and mirrors…we didn’t really trick anyone. Slow stuff low and away from our pitchers coupled with timely HR got us the wins.

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    • True. And that approach is, alas, now also getting us rapidly mounting numbers of losses. We are under actually 2 games under .500 since June 1.

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  5. The Dodgers are in 1st place by 5.5 games. Kershaw has a WHIP of 1.024, with 11.7 strikeouts per 9 and a ratio of 5.93 Ks/BBs. His record is 6-6 on a 1st place team. What does that tell me? The game of baseball is VERY unpredictable. What is REAL is the Astros are in 1st place with 49-39 today. Everything else is “smoke and mirrors.” As Ash said one day about baseball, we always assume that it all evens out but it never does. Just enjoy the ride.

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  6. I just don’t see how we can continue to have the success in the second have that we have had in the first half if we don’t cut down on the strikeouts.

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    • I’m with you and have long been on an anti-K rate…

      …but the answer is they can offset the K’s by hitting more line drives and fewer pop-ups, chasing fewer pitches outside the zone, and raising their BABIP. In other words, it will require a lot of luck.

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  7. Swing at the first pitch by altuve is gonna make me lose my religion. While I love the fact that the guys on this team try to ambush the opposing pitcher…it rarely works out. I love that luhnow has given two talented pitchers from double a a chance to pitch.in the bigs, and they have not disappointed. I hope we see more just like them, and I’m pretty sure we will. Mr. Bill is 100% right…this team is not fooling anyone recently. We don’t have a mike trout, or Albert puhjols. What we do have is a few young guys who are very hungry for a chance to show this league they are here to play. It appears Jon singleton is not the guy for first base, making him totally expendable…as well as Kris Karter. Jeff luhnow won’t get much for either of them while the astros will be on the hook for the rest of singletons contract. That’s the real shame here…we thought he was going to show up and smack the cr*p outta the ball.
    Oops…didn’t happen, and probably will never happen. I hope this small break away from baseball gives the guys a breath of fresh air and they come back rested and ready to get it on. They *have* to take 2 outta 3 from the Rays to leave the first half with a sweet taste in their mouths.
    I love this blog…I learn more about baseball and this team every day!! Thank you!!

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  8. A.j . Reed won minor leage player of the month…making that two months in a row.
    Not moving him up to corpus is stupid. Chad Qualls is back with the astros, oberholtzer was sent back down. By the way Qualls second appearance he gave up a single a double and a homerun. *uhg*.

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  9. I recall the players association and a lot of individual players being dismayed by Singleton’s contract and thought the Astros took advantage of him. Now it sure looks like Singleton will have the last laugh. Sure he’s young but that excuse only goes so far. Santana is young too and really looked it last year when he was clearly over matched but he has obviously matured and whereas I was a real cynic and skeptic regarding him I think now he probably has a future in the big leagues. I just hope its not with the Astros cause even though he has improved he’s still a high K guy and I’ve had as much of that BS as I can stand.

    I agree with Mr Bill that other teams are paying attention to the Astros. While we aren’t sneaking up on anyone any more we are still a dangerous team. Where we should shift emphasis is with our fast table setters. A more disciplined Altuve and Correa would help a lot. Our running game has been pretty meh lately. Early in the season Altuve, Marisnick and Springer were causing a lot of havoc on the bases. Correa will have to take on Springer’s mantle until he gets back.

    I think this is our best lineup available tonight. I don’t like Valbuena hitting fourth and would prefer him and Rasmus switched but I’d like to see these guys the next three games.

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  10. The lineup tonight
    Altuve 2B
    Tucker RF
    Correa SS
    Valbuena 3B
    Gattis DH
    Rasmus LF
    Carter 1B
    Castro C
    Marisnick CF

    McHugh on the hill

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  11. The American League is weak. We are a better than OK team beating up on mediocre teams in series. Smoke and mirrors? Maybe, but it should continue. Noone is going to get better overnight. The Mariners have to be thinking will the real Robinson Cano please stand up. If he catches fire and Walker pitches like the second time he faced us more and the first time faced us less, the Mariners could get noisy.

    I can’t believe they are in first place. That’s about it.

    Hinch should win. The guy in Tampa is doing pretty well too.

    Valbuena isn’t TOO surprising. That he has more than Carter or Springer is a little surprising. Rasmus has some power but he has never been a major power threat.

    Leads the teams in walks AND strikeouts? Swing the bat I say.

    There were a few people that thought Harris was a great pickup. Relievers ERA’s in half a season can be terrific, it’s small sample.

    I think a few people picked McHugh for some regression. I figured the regression would come in the midst of pitching well and having that 2-3 starts he can’t take back, rocketing his ERA. I was thinking more late 3’s/early 4s, mid 4’s a little high. I think he takes it back down some as the season wears on. He is fine.

    The average and OBP are no surprise. Lots of people knew the hit and miss lineup Luhnow was putting together would do that. The surprise is the 5th in runs while doing that though. I thought the solo HR would kill them.

    Starters ERA I think is a little misleading since some of the losses they have were losses that the pitchers were really bad in, and took us out of the game by the 4th. McHugh is the best example – mostly quality starts, but when its been non quality, its been really non quality.

    Hitting .300 is fairly rare. A lot of teams don’t have a .300 hitter. There are only 12 hitters in all the AL over .300. Batting average is not as effective as OBP and SLG in predicting impact.

    I think that Keuchel is a big reason we are where we are. McHugh is too in that he wins much more than he loses despite the ERA runup from 3 bad starts. The rest, we win some of those because every team is dealing with no depth in starters at the 3-4-5 slots, and we are gaming better than them right now. That’s why I think a deal for Hamels or Cueto or Kazmir can put us in the drivers seat. Unfortunately a lot of teams are probably talking those same 3 names – the price may end up high enough that Luhnow will justifiably say no thanks.

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  12. A.J. Reed needs to be moved to Corpus now. Put Gregor back in Lancaster. If this happens, they could bring Reed to spring training. I do believe that Reed will be competitive for that position early on. I, like all or most of you see no hope for Carter or Singleton. The Astros will probably have to eat Singleton’s contract. I can’t imagine any team wanting to take it on.

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    • Who would have thought we would hit an early homer and not score again? Go figure! The original was bad but the sequels are unbearable.

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  15. Not trying to be mean, but every pitcher on this team has sang the praises of Brent Strom……..when was the last time you heard a position player even MENTION the hitting coach’s name??? Remember John Malee?? Yeah me too.

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  16. Quad Cities and Corpus both won. Feldman pitched well in his second rehab appearance. Reed and J.D. Davis just went back-to-back for Lancaster, and they are winning [but hey, it is early, and anything can happen in California]. At the big club, however, we just keep on keeping on swinging for the fences every pitch – and coming up empty. It’s not the players – especially at the top of the line-up. It’s the approach.

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  19. Reed, Davis and Fisher each with a homer and Nottingham with 2. Lancaster wins 10-0. Radziewski and Yuhl with a 2-hit shutout.

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  20. Colin Moran’s first homer was the difference maker for CC tonight. Feels great to talk about him. Devenski with a good tandem relief of Feldman tonight. CC wins 3-2.

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  21. Fresno won tonight, but except for 2 hits each from Kemp and Heineman, most of the Grizzlies scoring was the result of the guys who Ashby described so eloquently tonight as AAAA players.

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    • At this point I’d rather let some of those 4 a guys come up to play. They couldn’t be worse than the 25 on this roster.

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    • We have a few elite hitters – Altuve, Tucker, Correa in particular – but we have zero hitters, including those guys, who have a good approach or game plan right now. We are taking 1st pitch strikes, getting and staying behind, and swinging for the fences at balls well off the plate. We have Carter-itis.

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      • It’s the K flu I was talking about. It’s spreading like wildfire throughout the clubhouse. Almost a pandemic. We need Ghostbusters. Or maybe some Buehrle beer.

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      • Not sure Altuve is still elite. Seems to have taken a different approach this year – swing for yard. Plus he doesn’t hustle when hits fly balls until/unless he sees them fall in. Saw Gattis get in his face about that two games ago. Good for Gatis. Although we love Altuve, he is still not “all that” just yet.

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      • Dan, that’s borderline controversial. You can’t call our guys a bunch of flowers without some backlash. You might end up on the BIng homepage with that remark. How’s you noggin?

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      • I am not running for president so I think i’m safe. My head is a bit better evryday. Get y stitches out Monday. My skinned knees still sting.

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  23. Listening to AJ Reed talking about hitting last night reminded me that he was a fine pitcher. Reed is a hitter that understands pitching and right now that is a huge benefit in his approach at the plate.
    A. J. Reed has been promoted to Corpus Christi.

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    • Those look like full season numbers for a very good season. Nottingham is also ripping it up in his first 9 games.

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      • Dan, the most encouraging thing I found about Reed’s numbers was that with his .346 BA, his BABIP was only .385. That is a great number!
        At this point in Springer’s Lancaster career, his BA was .325 and his BABIP was .405.
        That basically means that Reed’s numbers are real solid and not inflated by luck.

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  26. A total aside – but there was a chron.com (spit!!) article about Mark Buehrle drinking beer before facing the Astros in the World Series. Is it just me or does that not resonate like Dock Ellis pitching a no-hitter on LSD?

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  27. I really hope this slump by Correa comes to an end soon and he gets back to what he was doing. He looks completely lost at the plate right now. Too bad we don’t have a decent hitting coach to help the young man out

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  28. I wish they would consider bringing Bagwell in this second half to work with some of these young guys. Also, consider bringing Kemp up. I’m ready for somebody that can make contact with the ball.

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    • Yes. He said his mantra was see the ball hit the ball. Too much thinking screws up your natural ability, which is what got these guys here?

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  29. A.J. Reed might not have all five tool like Correa……..but he doesn’t HAVE too, when he hits the ball it goes a loooooong way. And….he hits the ball a LOT!

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      • Personally if Reed continues to rip it up in Corpus, he could easily be in Fresno by August. I think Luhnow will give him an invite to spring training next year, just to see how he hits major league pitchers. This kid is a BEAST……..you don’t win the college Golden Spikes award by showing up to class!! We should see him by the end of July next year……keep your fingers crossed!

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  31. I had a question – where did the AJ Reed promotion get announced? A quick look around did not reveal it and I was wondering who was the source – mctaggart maybe?

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      • I accidentally typed in astrodaily (without the s) and got an astrology web site.
        Becky – I am one of those husbands who is always going “Where did you say the X is – I can’t find it.” Which of those articles is about Reed- maybe they took it down?

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  35. I want you to know I totally believe y’all on Reed – I just find it bizarre (OK a few years ago I would have found it bizarre) that I can’t find this on “ultimate astros” (Spit!!) or even astros.com. Do we have coverage in this town that befits a first place team? If this were the Texans every hiccup and ear ache gets coverage.

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  38. Down three runs by the 3rd. Inning is like being down by 12 runs for this club. If they score one run in this game they will be lucky.

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    • We need to have a return to the team that would score with ease from the 7th inning onward. We need a spark somewhere some how.

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      • L.j. hoes is being called up today. He will be in the lineup tomorrow. Haven’t announced a corresponding move yet.

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      • You would think Singleton who had done almost nothing since his callup (now watch him hit a huge dinger to win this game).
        Presley?

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      • Presley would be my bet…..but you never know. Yeah…singleton is like a deer in headlights. And Carter strikes out. Jeeze when will this *stop*.

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  39. Kind of amazing – two of Carter’s swings and misses come on the same pitch right in the wheelhouse up and on the inner part of the plate. MarGo gets the same pitch and kills it for a double. The Astros have gone from fun to almost unwatchable.

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    • I guess I’m glad I can’t watch them today…or my husband would be a dead man. Brent Strom just got tossed because he let the umpire have it about the strike zone!! Cool at least we know someone on that bench has a pulse.

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      • I was not watching when the Rays scored their 3 runs but apparently the ump gave them the opportunity with his lack of strike calling.

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  41. The next few weeks will tell you how serious Luhnow is about winning this year.
    Another starter, and a guy that can HIT THE DANG BALL is exactly what is needed
    ASAP. the series in Cleveland and this series, the starting pitching has been just short of awesome. What happened to the bats?? We will know by the first week of August if Jim Crane and Jeff Luhnow are serious this year.

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    • I’m not ready to wave the white flag, but I hope they don’t grab a rental unless it only costs guys who aren’t going to make it to our big league club. The offense needs more help than the pitching and we all know the Gattis/Carter/Singleton doesn’t change its spots.

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  42. These are the hit totals for the past week. Today 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 16, 9, 6. I hope we can get to the All Star break with out a no-hitter. Our bell curve is going in the wrong direction.

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    • But lets not beat up our guys too bad. We have some holes that need to be addressed. However, the Phillies payroll ($143 Million compared to Astros $73 Million). And their record is 29-60. Sort of the guy complaining about no shoes until he saw a man with no feet.

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  45. Why is Carter and Singleton still here. This is ridiculous! Ever since Springer when down the hitting has become almost non existent.

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      • We pretty much have to keep one of them and since he’s more awful and can be sent down to Fresno Singleton should be gone over the break. I hope he tears it up in AAA and some foolish team that doesn’t use good sense will trade with us, although the Astros might have to eat some of that contract to get rid of him. Singleton is perhaps one of if not THE most poorly prepared player mentally that I’ve ever witnessed. Physical talent can take you a good way but vacuum between the ears will eventually separate the sheep from the goats.

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  46. Okay, good bye first place. It’s been coming a long time. Now perhaps a serious discussion about the future can begin.

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  47. If we can avoid a sweep, that will help our team’s morale [and fan morale as well] going into the break. But if we do not have a masterful game plan for the Texas series with which we kick off the ‘2nd Half’, we may not see 1st place again this year. Our team’s veterans, with the exception of Altuve, are mid-to-lower level producers. They are not found in the league leaders in any category [except for Carter and his insurmountable and growing league lead in strikeouts]. Any hope for 2nd half success therefore depends upon our talented but young, inexperienced rookies making appropriate adjustments to the challenges of this league.

    We have 4 days off. If we have a hitting coach, this should be his busiest four days of the year.

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    • “Inexperienced” is the key word here. Without a better hitting instructor, I’m afraid they may follow in the footsteps of the vets and become Carter like.

      I sure would like to see Bagwell work with them, at least for the remainder of this year.

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  48. I would not be surprised if Valbuena were to sit out Sunday’s game. He is finding it hard to push off with his left foot and was in obvious pain running to first in his last at bat.

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  49. The last week, my team is very hard to watch. Even my good luck charm has not worked and she is very frustrated with the bats, especially her favorite, Jose Altuve.
    I’ve decided to protest the poor play by not watching any Astros’ games from Monday thru Thursday on Root sports. This should let the team know how upset I am about them losing.
    Now watch them not lose a game during that time! It would be just my luck.

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    • I fearlessly predict they will not lose a single game between Monday and Thursday -well, this coming week, at least.

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    • This will be the best week in a while for the team. In truth – some rest may be a good thing for them. They need to come back refreshed and with some memory of where the strike zone is.

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  50. Don’t let this lefty ‘ s 8:00 era fool you today.
    The kid has not gone more than 5 innings in any game this year, and you would think he’s pretty bad…..think again. He’s very good and has some wicked stuff. McCullers is gonna have his hands full today….While I’m not down on our guys, they will be very lucky to get a win today. See ya after the game.

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